Top Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated by gunmen, dramatically raising tensions in the region. AFP. Fakhrizadeh was traveling outside of Tehran when he was ambushed. A car bomb exploded in front of his car and he was sprayed by gunfire from unknown assailants. Fakhrizadeh has been described as Iran's father of their nuclear program and was a major figure. Iran is blaming Israel for the attack with anonymous sources in the American government confirming that the Israelis were responsible. The assassination comes after the high profile killing of al-Qaeda's #2 man and the killing of Qasem Soleimani.
My comment:
I have mixed feelings about this attack. I have no doubt that killing Fakhrizadeh was a good thing. Allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon is not in anybody's best interest and he was a major component of those plans. With him dead Iran will have a much harder time in creating a nuclear bomb.
On the other hand this is a huge step up in the tensions for the region. Iran is going to be furious about this loss of face and may try and retaliate on those they blame responsible. They may launch terror attacks against Israel or perhaps even Saudi Arabia and the United States in response. It could even lead to a new war against Israel utilizing Iran's proxy, Hezbollah.
I don't think that there is much doubt that this was an Israeli operation. It has all the hallmarks of one of their operations and the killing of al-Qaeda's number 2 man this summer was confirmed to be an Israeli attack. They also had the biggest motivation to kill Fakhrizadeh and the best opportunity to do so.
The big remaining question is if they got help or not. Both the United States and Saudi Arabia dislike the idea of a nuclear armed Iran and they could have helped Israel with intelligence. Though Saudi Arabia has not yet signed a peace deal with Israel they do see Iran as a common enemy and I wouldn't be surprised if they wanted to help out.
I think that Israel took this action to prevent a potential Joe Biden presidency (which is no sure thing) from reinstating the Obama era nuclear deal. That deal was famous for how in favor of Iran it was and was basically unenforceable. This strike makes going back into that deal political suicide and probably impossible as the Iranians will likely have no interest. If so I think that this assassination was a coup for the Israelis.
Is an actual war likely? I doubt it. I think that the Iranians will retaliate but it will be with Hezbollah. I doubt that they will launch an attack on Israel itself using their own forces. But I do expect there to be some terror attacks or border skirmishes targeting Israel. I don't think that the United States is at too much risk but I also know that Iran has sleeper cells here they could potentially activate. Doing so would be a terrible move but I also don't think that the Iranians are that smart.
Regardless, I do have to say that I am again impressed with Israel's intelligence services. I am guessing that this was a Mossad op given how professional it is. At the same time I have to say that the Iranians should be pretty embarrassed that this happened. I know that Fakhrizadeh had guards but not only did they fail to save him, they also did not manage to kill or wound (as far as I know) any of the attackers. Not a good showing for them.
No comments:
Post a Comment