Biden scales back student debt relief...

 

Students graduating at Rutgers University. Politico/AP.

The Biden administration has decided to scale back student debt relief. Politico. They said that students that owe money to private lenders would no longer get relief. Previously, these people would have gotten between $10,000 and $20,000 in student debt wiped out. The new rule would not affect the majority of people who have student debt because most of that debt is held by the Federal Government. The scale back happens as Republicans are filing lawsuits against the student loan relief as they say it is illegal. These suits are largely based on the damage the loan forgiveness would do to private lenders. The Biden administration says that only 770,000 people would be affected by the policy change. 

My Comment:

Just a quick update on this issue, which proved to be extremely controversial. This move won't affect too many people but the ones that are affected by it will be furious. It sounds like the ones that put in for this before today will still get the money but everyone else is out of luck. Just goes to show that procrastination can really screw you over. 

I think this is a pretty good indication that the Biden administration realized that they would lose the lawsuit. I can't see them doing this otherwise and I am guessing that the private lenders issue could have put the whole student loan giveaway at risk. If so than this move will probably make stopping the student loan giveaway harder. 

Unfortunately, I don't see the small reduction in loan relief actually helping too much with the problems that the relief caused. It will save some money, yes, but not much. And it's still a terrible incentive for borrowers, why not take out high risk loans for degrees that offer little in return. 

I am still angry about this giveaway. It was such a slap in the fact to everyone who either didn't go to college or paid their own way. The only people that seemed in favor of this were the people that were getting the payments. And it was so obviously a play for votes in the 2022 midterms it was disgusting. 

But I don't think it actually helped all that much in terms of the election. College educated types tend to be more liberal than most and the majority of people that were getting these payments were voting for Democrats already. And the ones that just got screwed over? Maybe they will be mad enough to not vote for a party that did this to them. 

The US and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine.

 

Ukrainians fire an M777 Howitzer. CNBC/Getty.

The United States and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine. CNBC. In both the United States and Europe weapons are produced in small amounts during peacetime. Those stockpiles have largely been depleted. In order to provide more 155 Howitzers the United States would have to disarm their own units. Other popular weapons, like anti-tank Javelin missiles, anti-air stinger and the HIMRAS MLRS system are also depleted to the point where the Pentagon is no longer able to provide them to Ukraine. Production of weapons is scheduled to increase but it will take a very long time to ramp up production. 

My Comment:

This seems like a fairly obvious consequence to sending billions of dollars of equipment to Ukraine. Eventually you run out and given we are in peacetime production, it will take a very long time to build up stocks again. There is very little that can be done in the short term to provide these weapons to Ukraine.

Not that I agree to sending weapons to Ukraine in the first place. I have always said all that does is prolong the war and get a huge number of innocent soldiers and civilians killed for no reason. But since apparently nobody in congress or Washington agrees I guess we are out of luck. 

The other problem is that the attrition rate for these weapons is insane. Many of these weapons get destroyed even before they get to the front lines and many of them that do make it there are destroyed soon after. And even if they aren't they often run out of ammo fairly quick. Modern combat, in Ukraine at least, is a meat grinder and these weapons are destroyed as fast as they arrive. 

That should be a huge argument against the wholesale giving of weapons to Ukraine. If modern combat is so brutal that weapons are used so quickly, doesn't that mean that we should keep more of our own weapons in reserve? What happens if war with Russia or China breaks out and we have no weapons but the ones currently deployed? We would be in massive trouble then and it's not like war with either country is unlikely. 

Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if we are at war with either country or both before the end of Joe Biden's term. He has been provoking both countries constantly and I could see either of them going to war with us to protect their interests in Ukraine or Taiwan. Indeed, both the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline (which, to be fair, might not have been the United States) or Biden's comments on Taiwan would be a casus belli for Russia or China. I think the leadership of both Russia and China are more sane and cool headed than Biden could ever be but eventually they are going to get tired of him and it could lead to war. And if that happens we won't have the weapons we need to defend ourselves. 

Producing new weapons is a solution but it is a long term one. I it will take months or even years to ramp up production and even then it isn't going to fix anything if we just keep sending those weapons to Ukraine. 

And one wonders how on earth are we going to pay for all of this? There is a constant stream of billion dollar giveaways for Ukraine and the only way I have seen that they are paying for it is by either printing new money or borrowing it. Given how bad the economy is getting (my own company just put out a notice that they are cracking down on overtime) eventually the money just isn't going to be there anymore. And then, not only will we be broke, we will be disarmed as well. Given both Russia and China having an opportunity to get what they want. 

I have said for awhile that our Ukraine policy is misguided at best and utterly insane at worst. We are wasting billions of dollars and risking a massive nuclear war with Russia and for what? So Biden's money laundering scheme doesn't get exposed? To stick it to the Russians? Or just because all of Washington DC is a bunch of warmongers? It makes zero sense and I sincerely hope things change quickly in the future. 

Sabatoge? Nord Stream gas lines damaged in apparent attack. Who is responsible?

 

Gas bubbles from the damaged pipeline. New York Post/Reuters.

Major leaks were reported in both Nord Stream gas lines that supply Russian gas to Europe. Reuters. Seismic recordings from Norway, Sweden and Denmark recorded major explosions. Most countries, including Russia, agree that the line was attacked, but it is unclear who is responsible for it. Gas has been halted due to sanctions, maintenance issues and Russian activity. The pipelines took major damage and it will not be easy to repair. 

My Comment:

This is a huge escalation in the conflict with Russia and one that could have extreme consequences, regardless of who is responsible for it. Not only is it a major disaster, it's going to be an ecological one as well. I can't imagine all that natural gas leaking out is good for the environment. Plus it's a huge waste of a precious natural resource. 

The six million dollar question is of course who is responsible for this attack. I think we can rule a few people out. Ukraine obviously had a major motive to attack these lines, but I don't think they are anywhere skilled enough to pull this attack off. Their navy is largely destroyed and they don't really have access to the region. 

I think we can also rule out Russia, as they paid billions for these pipelines. Plus if they wanted to destroy them for some reason, they could have just done it in their own territory, not deep in NATO territory. Russia also has very little reason to want to blow up the pipeline. Germany, which gets the fuel from these pipelines, was facing major civil unrest and protests over the pipelines being closed, so Russia was probably pretty close to the Germans breaking and asking for the fuel to flow again. Why would they want to get rid of that source of income? I guess it could be some 3d chess kind of Kansas City Shuffle, but why go through all that trouble?

Germany also has little motive to do this either. It's been made pretty clear that they need the gas and blowing up their own pipeline seems like an own goal. Unlike Ukraine, they could probably easily do it, but I have no idea why? The only thing I could think of is that they wanted to diffuse the issue with their people, but I doubt it.

So who does that leave? Well, the United States is a pretty obvious suspect, especially with that Joe Biden video I posted that showed him threatening the pipeline. We also obviously have the ability to sabotage these pipelines, and doing so has multiple supposed benefits. It cuts off fuel to Europe forcing them to buy from us, forces businesses to leave Europe for the United States and might, perhaps, hurt Russia. 

Doing so would be an act of war, both against Russia and our German allies. That's obviously an act of insanity, attacking a nuclear armed country that could wipe us off the face of the earth is beyond stupid. But betraying our German allies? I can't think of a worse thing that our country has done recently. And given Biden's complete lack of morals and general evil attitude, I could see him doing it. 

But we shouldn't rule out other European countries either. Poland especially has been saber rattling and has celebrated the attack. I am not sure if they have that capability. And you can't rule out the non-German other members of NATO. The UK, for example, has both the capability and similar motives to the United States. 

With all that being said, it's too early to determine who is responsible for this attack. Lots of countries have the means, many also have the motive and a few have both. What I do know is if we ever do get absolute proof of who is responsible for this attack there will be hell to pay. Like I said, it's a casus belli for a major war and if it was a NATO member that was responsible for the attack it could break up the alliance. 

I have to say I am not feeling very optimistic towards the future. Tensions are already too high but nobody in the west is willing to even talk to Russia to try and end the war. And Joe Biden is a huge cause of it all. He's throwing gas onto the flames at every chance he get, and that might be literal now. I just hope he doesn't screw up so badly that the solution to the war is a mushroom cloud... 

  

Another day another $12 billion for Ukraine...

 

Battle damage in Mariupol. Reuters. 

Congress has agreed to include another $12 billion in aid for Ukraine in a stop-gap funding bill. Reuters. The request would include $4.5 billion for weapons, $2.7 billion for additional support and intelligence and $4.5 billion for Ukraine's general fund. The budget support would allow Ukraine to pay salaries and other critical expenses. The bill has to be passed by Friday to avoid a government shutdown. Despite that the money for Ukraine has bipartisan support. Ukraine has gotten billions of dollars of aid from the United States. 

My Comment:

The amount of money we are spending on Ukraine is utterly absurd. And we aren't actually paying for it with taxation, we are either printing or borrowing money to give to the Ukrainians. Given that we are in an economic recession with huge amounts of inflation, this is just stupid.  

Much of the problem is that neither party is opposed to sending money to Ukraine. You would think that the opposition party, the Republicans, would actually oppose this utter waste of money, but Republicans in congress just give the Democrats whatever they want. The supposed fiscal responsible and anti-war Republicans are nowhere to be found. 

And the Democrats? Remember during the Bush days when they were the anti-war party? Those days are long gone, but you would think that the progressives would have a problem with this. After all, that $12 billion could go for any one of their pet projects. The money might not even be wasted either, because at least all their do nothing programs provide jobs for people. 

So there is no debate in congress about spending this money. But what really gets me is that there is no debate about if this money is being spent effectively. Though Ukraine had some minor success in claiming a region that was weakly defended by Russia and at a high cost in lives and equipment, over all our intervention has been an utter failure. Russia has taken a huge amount of territory and is now mobilizing millions of soldiers to fight in Ukraine. I still say that Russia is winning and this money will do nothing but delay the inevitable. 

My goal has always been to end the war and if it wasn't for the billions of dollars we are burning in Ukraine we would probably have ended the war months ago. But nobody is even trying to end the war anymore. Nobody in the west is willing to negotiate and it's an utter shame. So many people are dying on both sides for a lost cause that has no chance of success. 

I don't have much else to add, since I have written similar post every time congress sends money to Ukraine. But I am just so disgusted with this utter waste of money, just because a bunch of warmongers in congress want to see more dead Russians. And they aren't even being effective at doing that! It just makes me so angry that we are wasting this money for a stupid and immoral war. 

School shooting in Russia leaves at least 15 people dead with many more wounded.

 

Police at the scene of the school shooting. Russian media handout/CBS News.

A school shooting in Russia leaves at least 15 people dead and many more wounded. CBS News. The attack occurred at school #88 in the city of Izhevsk. The attacker used less than lethal firearms that were modified to fire real bullets and were obtained illegally. Video showed the attacker wearing Nazi symbols, including a prominent swastika. The attacker was identified as a 30 year old man who had gone to the school as a child. Police are investigating his possible links to neo-Nazi or far right groups. The suspect killed himself at the conclusion of his attack. 

#BREAKING At lesat 6 killed in a shooting at a school in the city of Izhevsk, according to #Russia's state media pic.twitter.com/PXVDK4WFja

— Guy Elster (@guyelster) September 26, 2022

 

#BREAKING Russia's media published a footage of the school shooter with a swastika on his shirt pic.twitter.com/usNWh700RA

— Guy Elster (@guyelster) September 26, 2022

 My Comment:

This is a breaking news story and as always things may change after I have written this post. The death toll may go up. It is also unclear if the death toll includes the gunman or not. Given the state of things between Russia and the Western press we might not get good information about this incident for some time. 

This attack is probably more important than most school shootings, given the obvious political implications. The motive of this gunman could end up being internationally important. Why? Because it could be linked to the war with Ukraine. If there are any links to Ukraine whatsoever it could be used as an excuse by Russia, legitimate or not, to declare actual war (instead of the so called "special military operation")

With that being said, this attack may have absolutely nothing to do with Ukraine. It could just be another example of a jaded person deciding to take his anger out on a school. It certainly wouldn't be the first time that has happened. Indeed, Russia has their own school shooting problem that often rivals the United States. I remember one shooting in Russia where the attacker explicitly venerated Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold. This could be another copycat.  

It could also be a political response to conscription and mobilization. That would make the attack only tangentially related to Ukraine. I know a lot of Russians are upset about mobilization and there has been some protest against it. But would someone really be so mad about it that they would kill a bunch of school children? 

There will be people that will say that this is a false flag by Russia for some nefarious reason. I sincerely doubt that because why would the Russians want to kill their own people to justify a war they have already justified in their own minds in the first place? A false flag isn't totally outside the realm of possibility, as some people think that the 1999 Russian apartment bombings were false flags, but I doubt it. 

The swastika is of course extremely relevant. But it could mean several different things. First of all, it could be a connection to Ukraine. We have all seen the photos and videos of Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines with various White Nationalist symbols, though they do tend to avoid using the swastika. Indeed, the Azov battalion were pretty explicitly fascist, so it's possible that the attacker was linked to these groups or drew inspiration from them. 

It's also very possible that the attacker wore the Nazi related stuff solely for shock value. After all, no country, outside of possibly Israel, hates Nazis more than Russia, given how badly the Nazis mauled Russia during World War II. Wearing a swastika is a pretty explicit rejection of Russia and its values, which is exactly what I would expect a nihilist school shooter to do. 

There is probably going to be some confusion in the media about the attackers beliefs and possible links to neo-Nazis. They have been busy painting anyone who supports Russia, or even doesn't sufficiently support Ukraine, as Nazis. And to be fair, many on the far right in the US and Europe do support Putin. But Ukrainian Nazis sure do not and anyone that is a Nazi in Russia has to absolutely hate the country and everything it stands for. 

Finally, I would be negligent if I didn't point out that this is another example of how gun control simply doesn't work. Russia has a major problem with school shootings and that is despite having fairly strict gun laws, which Putin has clamped down on recently (which is a major reason I don't support him). In this case the attacker didn't even need a real gun to commit this crime. He just modified illegally obtained less-than-lethal firearms and modified them. It just goes to show that even in a country as oppressive as Russia, people will find away to kill large numbers of people. 

Will the 2022 elections be a referendum on Joe Biden?

 

Joe Biden. New York Post/Getty.

Former White House Press Secretary said that if the 2022 midterms are a referendum on Joe Biden, the Democrats will lose both the house and the senate. New York Post. Jen Paski, who left the White House to join MSNBC, made the comments as part of her new job. She also said that Crime was a huge vulnerability for the Democrats, especially in Pennsylvania. Biden's approval ratings have remained poor despite a few better recent polls. 

My Comment:

Looks like Jen Paski is burning her bridges at ever getting her job back at the White House. Her entire job was to spin things in favor of the Democrats and she just did the opposite. Biden probably won't forgive this but given Paski's new role on MSNBC (which is a huge conflict of interest by the way) she probably doesn't care. 

But is she right, are the Democrats doomed if the 2022 race is about Biden? I think there is an argument to be made there. Biden is historically unpopular and people hold him personally accountable for the various problems that this country is experiencing. I know I personally blame him for the terrible economy and the many various foreign policy disasters he has caused.  

Biden's approval is pretty terrible. It got a bounce recently, probably due to lower gas prices, but I don't think that will last long. Given that OPEC is planning to cut production and the fact that gas prices are going up again anyways, I don't think that boost will last very long. And it wasn't a big boost. His approval ratings were in the low 30's and now they are in the mid to high 30's, and I honestly don't trust those polls in the first place. 

Historically, the party of the President does horrible in the midterms. We saw it with Trump, Obama, Bush and Clinton and I am guessing we will see the same with Biden. It's always been that way and I can't imagine the same thing not happening again this time. 

I do think that Paski was right about crime being a huge vulnerability for the Democrats. People correctly blame Democrat policy for the crime wave. Turns out defunding the police was not a winning issue, especially when it leads to violence. The Democrats never seem to have anything to offer on this issue other than doubling down on defunding police and letting criminals go without bail. That and gun control of course. It's a huge liability for them. 

On the other hand, I do think that there are problems for Republicans as well. Making the election a referendum on the Democrats can hurt them as it makes them look like they don't have any plans themselves. That's why I don't think they should focus on the economy because I don't see that issue being handled all that better with a Republican congress, since both parties are addicted to giving money to people and countries that don't deserve it. 

What I don't think is a problem is the supposed "extremism" of the Republican Party. Making the election about Donald Trump or Marjorie Taylor Green probably helps Republicans because the base loves both of them and will increase turnout. And it's also a huge problem for the Democrats to taint those folks as extremists as they make extremism seem reasonable if all they are saying is there are only two genders and that the 2020 election was a joke, which almost all reasonable people believe. 

Indeed, focusing on these issues is probably what the Republicans should be doing in the first place. I know personally that I have convinced people to change sides after discussing how extreme the Democrats have gotten on trans issues. Can they win without it? I am not sure. 

With all that being said, I do think that in some ways every midterm is a referendum on the President and I think Paski is right. If the election is about Biden than the Democrats lose. Indeed, I would expect them to be wiped out if the senate map wasn't so in favor of the Democrats. But time will tell if that is the case. 

Iran will crackdown on the wave of protests... again.

 

Protesters/rioters in Tehran Iran. Reuters. 

Iran's president has vowed to crack down on a major wave of protest currently rocking the country. Reuters. The protests were spurred by the death of a 22 year old woman named Mahsa Amini, who died in custody of Iran's morality police. Women have played a large part in the protests with some burning their required veils or even cutting their hair. The protests were the largest since the 2019 protests, that were put down with extreme force by Iran. Pro-Iran supporters also held huge rallies in response to the protests. It is unclear how many people have died in this round of protests but there are reports of police firing on crowds. 

My Comment:

I almost didn't write a post on this issue because of how little I expect to come from this. If there is one thing that Iran is good at it's putting down rioters. The 2019 riots, that were much worse than this round, were put down with extreme prejudice. Iranians don't mess around when it comes to protests and riots and I fully expect them to do so again. 

It's not like the Iranian people were going to overthrow the government or anything. The problem is that many people in Iran still support the government there and would fight back against any attempt to do so. Indeed, there were fairly large rallies, organized by the state, in support of Iran's government. 

Still, Iran's actions here are worth noting, given how far their behavior is from the norm. In most countries protest movements are allowed to go on, with the vast majority of them burning out over time. If you are unlucky, some countries persecute protesters, like we saw in Canada during the Freedom Convoy and on January 6th here in the United States. But Iran? Iran just shoots people. Or otherwise kills them. They don't mess around with this at all. 

I don't really expect that to chance either. Iran has figured out that they can stay in power if they simply kill those that would oppose them. That isn't really going to change any time soon and they don't care at all about the international condemnation of their actions. Indeed, that's mostly a western phenomenon and it's important to note that Iran's relations with both Russia and China are improving. 

As for the particular case in question, I have no idea what really happened. I don't trust western media to tell the truth and I certainly don't trust the Iranians. Everyone has a motivation to lie, but it could be an example of police brutality, or someone just dying randomly. I don't know because I wasn't there. 

But the fact that Iran has morality police in the first place is just bizarre as an American. Though, given current behavior, I can sometimes understand the appeal. With that being said though, it seems to have backfired rather severely for the Iranian regime as even though I fully expect them to survive this wave of protests, it is still a very bad thing for them to have to deal with. 

I've seen a few people saying that this is another attempt at a "color" revolution, but I don't really buy it. The protests seem fairly organic and the issue is legitimate enough. And it's not like Iran doesn't protest, they do it all the time. With that being said, I do think that the CIA and other western intelligence agencies are drooling at the opportunity to cause as much chaos in Iran as they can. 

But I think over all things will remain status quo ante. Protest and riots have to be fairly universal to overthrow a government and even then if the government is willing and able to put down the protests with violence chances aren't good. If the Iranian people had firearms it might be different but they mostly don't so I don't see this latest wave of protest being any different than previous waves. 

Fact check: Rumors about a coup against Xi Jinping appear to be false.

 

Chinese president Xi Jinping. 

This afternoon I saw in several places, including on social media and various message boards, a rumor that there was a coup in progress against Xi Jinping. Supposedly there was a huge military convoy heading to Beijing and supposedly all flights were banned. When looking for sources for this rumor, I could not find any. Just random accounts on Twitter saying it was real without any news articles or other substantial proof. 

 That was my first red flag about this story. You wouldn't be able to hide a major coup in China. I remember the coup in Turkey a few years back and that was international news pretty much instantly. China is a much larger and more connected country than Turkey could ever be and if there was a coup there it would be the biggest news story in the world right now. It would not be able to be hidden. 

Plus, I don't think there is any real reason for there to be a coup in China. Xi Jinping is fairly popular there. China has some problems with their economy, yes, but no more so than any other country right now. And I can't imagine why a coup would happen now of all times. 

I also think it's fairly hilarious that people were greeting this news positively, probably assuming that Xi's replacement would be someone pro-USA or at least more moderate. I thought that was even more silly that the rumor in the first place. Why on earth would someone who launched a coup be better than the guy that was in charge in the first place? I would guess that whoever would do that would tend to be even worse than Xi is. 

Another aspect of the rumor was that all flights in China were canceled. A quick check of flight radar shows plenty of planes in China flying right now. I'm no expert on aviation, and it did appear that some flights had been canceled, but that seems pretty obvious that all flights have not been canceled. Indeed, it took me a few minutes to check this, so why it became part of the rumor is beyond me. 

Finally, even some of the accounts that pushed the rumor, like the one below, have backed off on the theory that their is an active coup against Xi Jinping...

Someone told me that he knows the family of a #CCP admiral, the rumor about Xi's arrest is not true. I'll talk about what is happening in China tonight, titled: "Is Xi Under Arrest After Military Coup? 3 Senior Anti-Xi Officials Sentenced to Death". Sub: https://t.co/BdIj4wQv2r

— Jennifer Zeng 曾錚 (@jenniferatntd) September 23, 2022

So why cover this at all? I think it's important to debunk stuff that I know is untrue because too many people see some account on Twitter and believe it without using critical thinking skills at all. My using mine I was able to discount this rumor right away and hopefully put it to bed. It's possible something is going on in China, but I doubt it's a coup.  

Russia will call up 300,000 reserves for the war in Ukraine.

 

Vladimir Putin announces the call up. Russian Presidential Press Service via AP.

Russia will call up to 300,000 reservists for the war in Ukraine in a partial mobilization. AP. Russia has not deployed too many troops to Ukraine and it has caused many issues, including being unable to stop a major Ukrainian offensive. Vladimir Putin cited the extremely long front lines, which he said were over 620 miles long. The move has proven unpopular with rare protests against Putin breaking out and over 1200 arrests. It is unclear who exactly will be sent to the front lines, but Russia has said it will only be people with relevant combat experience. Putin also said that Russia would use any weapon they had to protect the country and wasn't bluffing. 

My Comment:

This move was long overdue from a Russian perspective. Despite their battlefield successes, Russia never had all that many troops in Ukraine, with Ukrainian forces always outnumbered them. Russia has only ever deployed 200,000 troops, which is not a lot. 

Indeed, it was a lack of troops more than anything else that led to the withdrawal from the Kharkiv region. Russia had very little forces in the area, mostly volunteers from the breakaway republics and a few companies of Russian regulars. Ukraine was able to push Russia back from the region largely because the Russians were outnumbered. They took massive casualties to do so and the offensive has stalled out, but if Russia had done this before the offensive they would have not had to withdraw. 

A huge number of fresh troops being poured into the front lines could massively change the current situation. For one there wouldn't be any problem with not being able to defend the front lines. The Russians could actually go on a major offensive again as well, as troop numbers have been the major problem. 

It should be a gamechanger for Russia. Ukraine will not be able to match this huge number of troops. And given the massive casualties and equipment losses Ukraine has taken it's possible they will collapse once these troops enter the country. 

The downside for this is that this will be very unpopular in Russia. These reservists are draftees unlike the troops currently in Russia. Those troops were mostly, perhaps all, volunteers. Sending in the draftees will be something different. Unlike the volunteers, those troops did not have a choice to sign up. 

Western media is reporting widespread unrest over this decision. As always with Western reports on Russia I am skeptical about their claims. I do think there is unrest over this, but I am guessing Western media is exaggerating them. Though I do believe that Russia is cracking down on whatever protests are happening, they are after all, not that much better than Ukraine. 

Could it be a turning point for Russian support of the war? It's possible. Russians have mostly been supportive of the war and have been convinced, with good reason, that it's a necessary war for their survival, an argument I would largely agree with. But most Russians, outside of people in border areas or the family of soldiers killed, have been insulated from the costs of the war. All they really have lost to this point was access to Western luxury goods.

But sending in the reserves is going to make the war a lot more real for many Russian, with the draftees being the most obvious losers in this. Russia had the same problem in Afghanistan and it also mirrors the situation the United States had during the Vietnam War. Once these reservists start coming back in body bags or wounded it will be clear that the Russian people will be paying for the war. 

As for the war itself, I still think that Russia is winning. The media says otherwise but the Kharkiv offensive was mostly irrelevant, given how few troops Russia lost there and how many Ukrainian forces were expended there as well as in the completely failed Kherson offensive. Plus, it's very clear that Russia has won the Economic war so at this point I think all they need to do is outlast the West. Given arms stockpiles are now mostly depleted and people are probably not going to have fuel to heat their homes in Europe this year... 

I know some people are worried that an actual war between Russia and the West could happen now. I personally think that isn't going to happen, though it would be an appropriate thing to happen to Joe Biden. This is mostly his fault after all. But I don't think a full scale nuclear exchange between Russia and the United States is likely. Unfortunately, it is possible, largely because the unpredictable nature of Biden and his foreign policy. After all, this is a guy that keeps making statements that end up getting walked back by his own underlings. Still, I remain hopeful that cooler heads will prevail. 

North Dakota teen killed in an apparently politically motivated attack.

 

18 year old Cayler Ellingson. Grand Forks Herald. 

A North Dakota teenage was killed in an apparently politically motivated attack. Grand Forks Herald. 18 year old Cayler Ellingson was hit by a car allegedly driven by 41 year old Shannon Brandt in McHenry. Ellingson was calling for his mother to pick him up because he claimed that he was being chased by Brant, but he was dead by the time his mother was on the scene. Brandt called 911 to report the crime and told the dispatcher that he thought Ellingson was a member of a "Republican extremism group" and was "sending people to get him" after a political argument. Brandt was drunk at the time and faces a minimum of 10 years in prison due to a previous conviction of DUI and a maximum sentence of 20 years for vehicular homicide. Brandt is being held on $50,000 bail, which he objected to. Further charges may be filed. 

My Comment:

This story is making the rounds on conservative media and I decided to cover it because it reminds me of a local case we had here in Wisconsin. Back in 2020 a Hispanic man ran over a man riding a motorcycle for no other reason than he was white. That incident happened only a few miles away from my Mom's house so I took it fairly seriously at the time. The attacker in that case ended up in an asylum after his conviction this year. 

This case seems similar. The attacker in this case appears to have killed someone because he disagreed with him politically and did it by running him down with a car. There are differences of course, the attack was not random and was after a disagreement, but it did remind me of the cases. 

There is no question of justification in this case. It is possible that Brandt felt threatened during the argument, but Ellingson was walking away. He had abandoned the conflict and was trying to get home with his mother. Even if Brandt was telling the truth about Ellingson saying he was going to send people to "get" him, there was no immediate threat to Brandt whatsoever. Plus, in most cases running people over with a car is not self defense in the vast majority of cases. Unless there is some information we don't know about, I can't see how Brandt doesn't end up convicted. 

I also don't understand what Brandt meant by a "Republican extremist group". I sincerely doubt an 18 year old kid that was coming back from a street dance was some kind of far right extremist. But even if he was, that doesn't excuse this attack in any way. 

My guess is that Ellingson and Brandt had words and Brandt couldn't handle that some kid didn't agree with him. That made him angry so he decided to kill him. The political stuff was probably just the context, if Ellingson had disagreed with him about anything else, the drunk Brandt probably would have done the same thing. 

Still, given the political context, it's hard not to wonder if this was inspired by the rhetoric coming out of the Biden White House. After all it's only been a few weeks since Biden's crazy speech where he denounced half the county as political extremists, maybe Brand took it to heart? Political tensions are high and I don't see it going down anytime soon.

What would help is if the people on the left would denounce this attack. Unfortunately, outside of conservative and local media the story is largely being ignored. Of course, I don't have to speculate how this would go if the political affiliation was reversed. When Heather Heyer died in Charlottesville it was national news for weeks and served as a center peace of Biden's campaign. But this story, as of this writing, hasn't even rated a tweet from most major news outlets...  

Two million illegal aliens have been apprehended at the border in 2022

 

Aliens from Venezuela in Texas. ABC News/Reuters.

Two million illegal aliens have been apprehended at the border in 2022. ABC News. The number includes people entering the country illegally as well as people stopped at the border that apply for asylum. The numbers have increased quite a bit from the last fiscal year where 1.66 million people were detained at the border. Many of those people stay in the United States for months or years as their asylum claims are processed. About 1 million people were deported in the last fiscal year. Some states with large amount of illegal immigrants have begun shipping them to other states, most notably sanctuary cities and states. 

My Comment:

It's fairly shocking how effective Ron DeSantis Martha's Vineyard stunt was. Before that happened, immigration was hardly being covered by the media. But now? Even ABC News is covering illegal immigration and the invasion of our borders. 

Though DeSantis and his stunt was highly effective at exposing hypocrisy, after all the migrants were deported from Martha's Vineyard almost immediately, it has not really done anything to actually fix the problem. Of course, Governors like Florida's Ron DeSantis and Texas' Greg Abbott are limited in what they can do as only the Federal Government can deal with immigration policy. 

And the Federal Government? They are out to lunch. If Biden is taking any action to stop immigration it has largely flown under the radar. I know there have been some efforts to try and have some other countries take some of these people, most notably Mexico, but it hasn't been working. Plus, Biden assigned Kamala Harris to handle immigration and she has notably accomplished absolutely nothing.

There have been a lot of deaths because of our porous borders. Notably some of them have died in tractor trailers. Others have died trying to cross the rough conditions on the border, after all, it's the desert. Even more die in the Darien Gap in Panama as that is another rough crossing in the middle of the jungle. All of these deaths would be preventable if migrants understood that they would be deported if they entered the country illegally. But they don't so they are taking the risk and many of them are dying because of it. 

Most of these people are economic migrants, not real refugees. Though nobody can deny countries like Guatemala, Venezuela and Cuba are terrible countries but most of the people that are there are not facing political prosecution. Those places are indeed terrible but that doesn't mean that they have any right to come here. Especially if those are the people that are needed to not make those countries so terrible. 

The political implication of this problem finally getting some coverage cannot be ignored. Donald Trump was elected in 2016 largely because of anger over immigration and despite how crooked the 2020 election was, Trump made a huge mistake in not making immigration a huge part of his reelection campaign. Bringing back the issue is a great way to motivate both core Republican voters and moderates who are concerned about the issue instead. 

Like I have been saying, the 2022 midterms should not be about the economy, as bad as it is. Even though the Democrats have made a mess of it, the economy isn't really going to crash until this winter. And it's not like the Republicans have much of a plan on the economy either. But they can make hay on this issue and other major social issues like education and backlash against transgender policies. People are furious about the invasion on our border and hate liberal hypocrisy on this issue. 

Joe Biden commits us to war with China if they invade Taiwan.. again.

 

Joe Biden in London. CNBC/AFP/Getty. 

Joe Biden again committed the United States to war with China if they invade Taiwan saying US troops would fight. CNBC. Biden was asked in an interview with 60 minutes if he would do so and said  “Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack.” The move directly contradicts US policy to keep things vague when it comes to the issue of defending Taiwan. Biden has said similar comments before but this time it was much clearer in tone. Biden's team claimed that US policy when it comes to Taiwan has not changed despite the comments, which were made last week and aired tonight. Biden did say during the interview that the "one China" policy remains in effect. 

My Comment:

I didn't watch the interview but this was not the only flub that Biden made in it. He also claimed that the Coronavirus pandemic is over. This is probably true, the disease is endemic now and isn't going anywhere, plus is nowhere near as severe as it once was. But that is the opposite message of what the Biden administration is still making. Given the fact Biden had put his foot in his mouth twice in a highly edited and scripted interview, I wonder how the uncut version looks?

Regardless, the Coronavirus flub is not a serious issue. Openly committing us to going to war with China is extremely serious. China will be furious with us, again. Just last week the Senate angered China over a major defense bill that would give billions of dollars to Taiwan.  At some point they might consider doing something. 

China, of course, considers Taiwan to be a integral part of China. They would consider this to almost be an act of war. They shrugged off Biden's previous comments but there is no guarantee that they will do so this time. What they would do in response is mystery but I don't think anything good will come from this. 

It's also a terrible look for the US government. It's literally double speak when Biden says something while his government says the opposite. Does it matter if we are going to defend Taiwan or not? Sure, but what is more concerning is the mixed messaging. How can we deal honestly with China when Biden can't keep his facts straight?

And, to be clear, I don't support China's claim on Taiwan. As I have said before, I don't consider China's government to be legitimate. There is an argument that we should indeed defend Taiwan due to their strategic importance. It's a discussion that we should have. 

But Biden is not the one that should be making the argument. Largely because he can't be made to make it coherently. Either we should support Taiwan or not, but what we shouldn't do is have Biden be the one making the decision. He has proven that he will screw it up. 

5th Circuit Appeals court upholds Texas social media law that bans outlets from censoring users.

 

Politico/AFP/Getty. 

The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals has upheld a Texas social media law that bans big tech outlets from banning users for political speech. Politico. The big tech companies, including Facebook, Google and Twitter argued that the law, which allows Texas users to sue if their posts or accounts are removed for political speech, is a violation of their first amendment rights. In a 2-1 ruling the court disagreed saying that censorship is not speech and the idea that it was is "ludicrous". The case will likely go to the Supreme Court due to the fact that the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals overturned a similar law in Florida. The law would not go into effect until a final ruling is put into place. 

My Comment:

As someone who has had political opinions censored on both Twitter and Facebook this ruling is a welcome one. None of my posts that were moderated were in anyway offensive or bad. I called Kyle Rittenhouse a hero on Twitter and I caught a suspension for it, even though he was acquitted of all charges and it was obvious he was not a murderer. Even more idiotic was the time I caught a minor ban on Facebook because I made a joke about Joe Biden's knowledge of guns by claiming I could shoot down a helicopter with a 9mm, an obvious reference to the classic Simpsons episode where Homer gets a gun. 

I have never bought the argument that social media and big tech are like newspapers where they have editorial control over users posts. Instead they are like a common carrier that works with the public. The classic example would be your phone. Imagine if you said on the phone you were voting for President Trump and then you not only got banned from your phone service, but from all other phone services. That would be unthinkable but for some reason we are supposed to accept that from social media? 

The censorship of big tech has been an absolute disaster for free speech. The days of the freewheeling internet where interesting ideas outside of the mainstream were common are dead. There are a few websites like that but good luck finding them and God help you if you try and link to one of them. Hell, the attack on Kiwi Farms for documenting a disgusting person that grooms children and sends them sex hormones is an example of this. They were one of the last websites on the internet where you could say what you want and they were almost completely taken down because big tech colluded to silence them. 

This censorship is one of the main reasons why I don't consider the 2020 election to be legitimate. The Hunter Biden laptop from hell story was legitimate and in any normal year would have destroyed any chance of Joe Biden becoming President. But big tech and more traditional media colluded to silence the story to the point where unless you were already keyed into conservative news you didn't see it. That kind of thing cannot happen again if we are to have a country will anything resembling real elections. 

If this law goes into effect, will social media be less friendly? Who cares? That is what the block button is for. I see things I disagree with on social media all the time and I just ignore it. And if a user is bothering me I block them. That's the user's role on the website, not the administrators. People should only be banned if they break the law and even then they should get their accounts back when they serve their time. 

The role out would be complicated. How would big tech deal with laws in other countries that mandate censorship? If I move to Texas and post something about Justin Trudeau being a cuck and Canada mandates my post be removed, (in a silly example) what would Facebook or Twitter do? Do they piss off Canada or Texas? It's a tough situation for them and one they richly deserve. 

How will the Supreme Court rule? I have no idea. This kind of law is not my area of expertise and with the current makeup of the court I am not sure. It seems like the kind of thing the Conservative justices might have an issue with as they may put the interest of private businesses over the greater good of America and especially the conservative movement. My hope would be that the Supreme Court would choose to defend the free speech rights of actual human beings but who knows?

I am sure some liberal readers may bring up the case of the gay wedding cake court cases. I don't really think that is the same thing at all. After all, compelling someone to make speech they disagree with is totally different than not allowing any speech in the first place. And essentially the people in that case, Masterpiece_Cakeshop_v._Colorado_Civil_Rights_Commission, were commissioning art. Again, it would be more like the phone company banning you from calling anyone to order a cake because you are gay, not like being forced to bake a cake you disagree with. 

I do hope that this ruling happens though. The internet used to be a wonderful place until about 2016 or so. The election of President Trump really broke the powers that be and they had to go and ruin the internet to make sure that nobody ever spoke up against them again. I don't know how well it has worked but I know for a fact that I'd prefer to live in a world where I can say what I want online without worrying about losing my accounts. 

China is angry over a major defense giveaway to Taiwan in a proposed Senate bill.

Nancy Pelosi during her visit to Taiwan. AP

China is angry over a major defense bill that would provide billions of dollars in military aid to Taiwan, which has gotten out of committee in the Senate. AP. China accused the United States of violating it's "one China" policy and has lodged serious complaints with Washington. The bill, co-sponsored by Republican Lindsay Graham and Democrat Bob Menendez, would provide billions of dollars in military aid. They say that this would reduce tensions in the region as it would make any invasion by China too expensive in lives and money to be considered. It is unclear if the bill will make it into law as it has to pass both the house and a potential veto from Joe Biden. 

My Comment:

The reporting on this bill has been pretty terrible. I can't get a good handle on how much this bill would cost the American taxpayer. Some sources say $4.5 billion while others say $6.5 billon. The AP article I used as a source didn't say either way. You would think something as basic as the actual cost of the bill wouldn't be the hard to figure out, but apparently it is.  

There is a real question though if this makes it into law in its current form. There was some opposition in the senate panel with a few senators saying no. Will it pass in the house? I would think so. If there is one thing that both Democrats and Republicans in the house agree on it's wasting taxpayer dollars on foreign governments. 

I do think that there is a good chance that Biden vetoes this if it reaches his desk. Biden is not a China hawk at all and does not seem to want to antagonize the communist country. I don't believe that he even approved Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan so I doubt he would sign this bill if it reaches him. And if he does veto the real question is if the senators can overcome the veto.

What is my take on this? I've got mixed feelings on this. On the one hand, I have always agreed with the one China policy but I think everyone else gets the capital of China wrong. The only legit Chinese government is the one centered in Taipei. The communist government dictatorship in China is an evil government and I would love to see it fall (but to be fair, I can say the same thing about our government under the Biden regime). 

And I think there is an argument to be made that Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, is actually a strategic asset for the United States. We have outsourced many of our critical computer manufacturing to the state and it serves as a pretty formidable buffer for China's ambitions in the Pacific Ocean. If Taiwan were strong enough to defend itself from a Chinese invasion it would be a good thing. 

But the problem is that the timing for this is off. We are not in a position to threaten China, due to our insane Ukraine policy. If China decides to go to war with Taiwan right now, I am not sure we would be able to defend them, given how much of our arms and ammo got sent to Ukraine. And even if war doesn't break out it will strengthen the link between Russia and China, that is already close to becoming a de facto alliance. 

There is also the fact that we simply can't keep sending billions of dollars to foreign countries anymore. We aren't paying for it in any meaningful way, we are just printing and borrowing money and that isn't sustainable anymore. Plus doing so causes inflation, which is already killing this country on main street and even Wall Street.

I also don't know that this money will do much long term. American military power is clearly in a decline while China is growing their power dramatically. Right now I think that a war with China is no clear win for the United States and that's mostly because China hasn't finished building warship and transports to invade Taiwan. That will change in the near future and after it happens there is no guarantee that America wins that war. Even if Taiwan were to have modern US weapons this bill would provide it probably wouldn't be enough. 

Of course the whole discussion will probably be moot if the economy of both the United States and China collapses, which looks fairly likely. Both countries appear to be heading to a major recession, if not a 2nd Great Depression. I would think in that case the entire situation would change enough that people wouldn't care anymore, but who knows. After all, World War II followed the Great Depression... 

The one that got away...

 It's a slow news day and I don't really want to write about any of the stories I saw today. Most of it seems to be related to Ukraine (which western media always gets wrong), the funeral of Queen Elizabeth (who's death I just wrote about) or the Economy (which I also just wrote about). None of that interests me so I thought I would write up a lighter story. 

As you may know I have been on vacation this week and I have been spending much of that time fishing. I went today with my dad in a new place I had only tried once. The first time I went I ran out of bait quickly, going for catfish. This time I brought more bait, but the fish were biting quickly enough that I ran out quickly. 

My Dad had caught a decent sized bluegill (probably a good inch or two longer than the example one I am going to post below) and it unfortunately swallowed the hook. We were going to keep and clean it but the fishing was fairly rotten. We were getting bites but not landing anything. I had at least two catfish throw my hook, and even more stealing my bait. Since I was out of bait and neither of us wanted to clean one fish, I decided to throw it on my catfish rod instead. 

I've used fairly big baits for fish before and that's how I caught my first flathead catfish and I know bluegills are good bait for catfish, even when they are dead. I, of course, got a huge bite on this one. It felt huge and was pulling very hard. If I had landed it, regardless of if it was a channel cat or a flathead, it would have been a personal best. I guess it's possible it was a big turtle too, but given the current and the position in the deepest part of the river I doubt it. Even then if I had landed it, it would have been a good story.

Instead I get this story to tell. One second the fish was pulling and the next it was gone. When I pulled my line in I figured out immediately what had happened. The line hadn't snapped, the knot had failed. I lost a huge fish and my hook because I suck at tying knots. Which is a really stupid reason to lose a fish. 

For years I have used the improved clinch knot because it's about the only one I know how to do and it hasn't let me down until now. I think that has to change. Supposedly the palomar knot is a lot strong and I think I am going to have to learn how to do it. It actually looks fairly easy, it's just I have never been that good at tying knots. I guess I have a very good reason to try now. 

So that's my story. I hope it is mildly interesting at least and if I have any advice for any aspiring fishermen it's this, always check your knot and try to learn more powerful ones than the basic improved clinch not. It's not hard and you don't want to end up like me losing a big fish for no good reason. 

The Dow Jones tumbles in major sell off after bad inflation report.

 

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell. 

All three major stock averages tumbled today in a major sell off due to a bad inflation report. Yahoo Finance. The Dow Jones fell 1275 point, roughly 4%. Inflation caused prices to be 8.3% higher over last year and increased .1% over the last month. The markets were expecting inflation to ease by the same rate. Much of the inflation outside of the volatile food and energy markets is from the price of shelter and homes. The news resulted in spikes in interest rates.  

My Comment:

I am far from an expert in the economy, but even I can see that things are not going well. Inflation is a problem that is not going away and nobody seems to be doing anything about it or even agreeing what the problem actually is. Instead we get news like this where the Army is telling soldiers to get onto SNAP to deal with high grocery prices. 

Supposedly our joke of a President had an event today celebrating "victory" over inflation, which, in a sane world, would be a "mission accomplished" moment for Biden. This is far from a victory, Biden sounds totally tone deaf when the economic news is so bad that it triggers a stock sell off. 

Indeed, I think there is a strong case to be made that much of this inflation is a direct result of Biden and his policies. I can give him a pass for some of it, after all, he wasn't in power when the stimulus payments went out. But the energy prices skyrocketing? That's because of his role in pushing Russia into the war with Ukraine. And high housing costs? That's directly downstream of the massive invasion of our porous borders, a problem that had greatly improved under President Trump. 

And Biden himself is out to lunch. He's not at all focused on the problems Americans are facing, he's just on a crusade against President Trump and his supporters. The economy doesn't seem to matter to him at all, he just wants to throw half the country in jail because they support Trump instead of him. 

But that's enough Biden bashing for now, this is a real problem and I don't think it is going away anytime soon. Energy prices will continue to rise and so will food. I have been sounding the alarm on food prices for awhile now and though you don't hear about it that much anymore I think it will get worse as the harvest come in, or don't considering the situation this year. 

I think we are already in stagflation, where prices continue to rise even though there is an economic contraction. I know this isn't really strong evidence, but I do know at work we are getting a lot more applicants than we had in the past. People want steady work when the economy is tanking and I have heard that businesses are starting to slow down. 

But the biggest threat might be what is happening in Europe right now. Their economy faces ruin this winter as they are now largely cut off from Russian energy. Given how interconnected things are between Europe and the United States that could be a real problem for us as well. It might finally fix our inflation problem though, as depressions usually take care of that. 

The New York Times admits that the 2022 polling for the midterm elections could be off.

 

270 to win graphic showing the senate seats up for grabs as well as polling averages. 

The New York Times has admitted that polling for the 2022 midterm elections could be off. The New York Times. Polling during the 2020 race was dramatically off in many states, including many that have active senate races in 2022, most notably in Wisconsin, Ohio and North Carolina. One possible reason is the hostility Republicans have to polling companies, as they see them as biased. Recent polling suggests that the Democrats would narrowly lose the house but would keep the senate by a seat or two. However, it is possible that polls are over correcting in the other direction to correct this. 

My Comment:

Looks like the New York Times are covering their bets here. I am guessing that they probably understand that the Democrats are going to lose both the house and senate, along with several governor's races. They don't want Democratic voters to get cocky and not show up on election day. So they are pointing out the obvious fact that polling has been garbage lately. 

That isn't to say that I think that the election is a lock for the Republicans. I do think it's pretty obvious that they will control the house when this is all said and done, but the senate is more up in the air. The quality of candidates in some states is pretty low, the only reason Dr. Oz has a chance at all is that his opponent is a guy that lives in his parents basement and is so stroked out that he can't even debate. 

Another issue is that Republicans seem to have abandoned the themes that got them a fairly surprising victory in Virginia and a narrow defeat in New Jersey in 2021. They have decided that the economy is the only thing that matters and are ignoring the hot button social issues that drove Governor Glenn Youngkin into power in Virginia. 

The Virginia election was about schools and that is something that the Republicans could have pushed for. Obviously people were disgusted by the pushing of LGBT agendas over all other concerns in the state, but it's not coming up much in the congressional campaign. Crime too is a huge issue, as we saw with the recent horrible crimes in Memphis the past week. But again, the focus has been on the economy. 

I do think that the economy is a huge weakness for the Democrats as inflation, high gas prices and general financial misery are totally their fault. But I don't know if voters are actually going to buy that the Republicans are going to do anything different than the Democrats on the issue. Nobody is brave enough to say "hey, let's stop spending billions of dollars on Ukraine and stop giving out handouts", instead the Republicans will probably push for another tax cut, which won't help much. Plus, one of the worst parts of the economy, high gas prices, have decreased, largely because of lockdowns in China, the emptying of our strategic reserves and reduced demand due to economic slowdown. 

With that being said, I think the case for a Democratic Senate is overstated. I do think the argument that the polling is off in many of these states is correct. I know at least in my state there is little apatite for Mandela Barns. In my travels this week, I have seen many signs for Ron Johnson (and our likely next governor Tim Michaels) but none for Barns. Johnson has some problems but I just don't see any enthusiasm for Barns whatsoever. Assuming there aren't any election night shenanigan's like the ones that plagued the state in 2020, I think Johnson will win. 

I also think that the Democrats are putting all their hopes on the Roe v Wade decision being overturned. I personally think much of the outrage over that has been overstated and in most cases people have stopped caring. And though I do think that the people that are upset about it will vote, but I also think that they are the people that were always going to vote Democrat anyways. Plus, I think it's very possible that the issue will push Republicans to vote as well since for the first time in a long time, the party actually did something their base wanted for years. 

I won't do a full prediction on all the states but I am guessing that the Republicans will probably win the Senate and will do better in the House than they are predicted to. I think it is going to be a very narrow win, or even status quo ante with a divided senate, but I really don't think that the Democrats are going to hold on. 

My reason for thinking so? Ruling parties almost always lose seats in both chambers when the midterm elections happen. It's happened in pretty much every election I remember, with it happening to both Obama and Trump. And when the supposed president is polling in the mid to upper thirties in approval rating? That's a horrible sign. The damage to the Democrats will be limited due to the makeup of the seats up for grabs, but still, something would have to go pretty wrong for the Democrats to keep the Senate. 

Of course that assumes that the elections even matter anymore. We saw in 2020 that the media, big tech and the federal government pulled out all the stops to prevent Donald Trump from getting the 2nd term he so richly deserved. House elections are a lot harder to compromise but with Senate races being state wide, it's very possible that the count stops that Tuesday night and someone magically finds tens of thousands of ballots at 4:00 AM again... 

Editor's Note: Vacation and fishing report.

 I will be on vacation next week. As usual when I am on vacation, posting may be infrequent or at unusual times. How much I post depends on how busy I get but I do have some plans so there may be a couple of days where I don't get a post up. 

What am I planning on doing? Well, fishing for one. I have gone twice now already, once on Friday and again today. It's been weird, I have been getting dramatically more quantity over quality. I did catch my first pike in a very long time, I had one on last year but I didn't land it. I usually don't fish for them and it was pretty crazy catching on a small spinnerbait. It was a pretty small one but it was nice to catch.

That was yesterday. Today I probably caught around 40 fish, but the vast majority of them were round gobies. Those stupid little bait stealers are easy to catch but are mostly an annoyance. What is worse, you can't use them for bait, as they would be a good catfish bait. They are an invasive species and I guess the DNR doesn't want people to use them under any circumstances. 

Speaking of gobies, I actually caught one of the species that they threaten, the common logperch. They kind of fill the same role as gobies being small bottom dwelling fish, so they aren't as common in Lake Michigan waters (which my home river is connected to). Though they aren't anywhere near as impressive as the last new species I caught, the flathead catfish, I will count the logperch as a new species on my life list. That makes two for this year and six for the past two years.

Queen Elizabeth is dead, King Charles III takes over as British Monarch.

 

The Queen and the Royal Family at the Queen's Platinum Jubilee. BBC/Getty. 

Queen Elizabeth, one of the longest reigning monarchs in history, has died, with her son, King Charles III taking over as the British Monarch. BBC. The Queen died peacefully at her Scottish estate. Elizabeth's reign lasted 70 years and spanned 15 prime minsters. She took the throne in 1952 and has reigned since. The Queen was beloved in the UK and had traveled to every commonwealth country at least once. King Charles III has taken the thrown at age 73. A state funeral is being planned for sometime in the next two weeks. 

My Comment:

I've got mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, reigning as 70 years is a huge accomplishment and most people consider Queen Elizabeth one of the best monarchs the UK has ever had. She's beloved by the UK and it's a huge deal that she has died. 

On the other hand, as an American, I have to realize that our entire country was founded on ignoring the royal family. Usually, when some incident happens with the Royal Family, I just roll my eyes and move on. I couldn't care less about the various royal weddings, royal scandals or royal daily happenings. As an American it affects me in no way. 

But with that being said, I do think that the Queen's accomplishments are worth noting. She always seemed like a good person and a decent leader for the United Kingdom, even though her power was mostly non-existent. At the very least, she is worth a blog post. 

Some people have made utter fools of themselves by celebrating the Queen's death. These people, mostly social justice warriors, say that the Queen was a "colonizer" even though she reigned during the period of decolonization. Some of these people have been rightly blasted for these attacks for both their tone deafness and inaccuracy. When Jeff Bezos comes off as the more reasonable person, you have screwed up badly. 

As for King Charles III, he's going to have a lot harder time being as beloved as Queen Elizabeth was. Unlike her, Charles is largely considered a joke by the UK and some people haven't forgiven him for the situation with Princess Dianna. Plus, he's going to have a lot less public goodwill when scandals pop up, most notably Prince Andrew and his connections to Jeffrey Epstein. 

The Queen is going to have an epic, and expensive, state funeral. That might be controversial at this time of economic tension. On the other hand, it's Queen Elizabeth. She's getting a huge state funeral and I don't really think it's up to anyone. It's not something they are going to cheap out on. 

Memphis police looking for a 19 year old man who livestreamed random shootings on facebook.

 

The suspect, 19 year old Ezekiel Kelly. New York Post/Police handout. 

Memphis police are looking for a 19 year old man who livestreamed random shootings on Facebook. New York Post. The suspect filmed himself walking into a store and shooting a random person there. The suspect, 19 year old Ezekiel Kelly, also filmed himself ranting on the camera, mostly unintelligibly. The suspect also said "this shit's for real, no fake" and said "I want justice". The suspect has switched vehicles and is now described as driving a stolen grey SUV, Arkansas plate #AEV63K.

A local news site, Fox 13, has more information on the shooting and is providing live updates.  At least two people have been killed in the attack while the shooter claims he shot at least five.

This is a breaking news story so check the Fox 13 link for new updates. The video the suspect made can be seen below but there is graphic content. As I was writing this, police reported that the suspect was now in police custody after crashing a stolen car. Also, the suspect was also charged with murder, assault and various weapons charges in 2020 and it was unclear why he was out on the streets. 

BREAKING: Memphis, Tenn. police warn community after gunman is reportedly shooting people at random on Facebook Live pic.twitter.com/iLl5cEtbu1

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) September 8, 2022

MEMPHIS POLICE: “The suspect is still at large. If you do not have to be out, stay indoors until this is resolved.” https://t.co/SW987g7FC3

pic.twitter.com/MJQHwry5Mu

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) September 8, 2022

My Comment:

This shooting rampage comes just days after the murder and kidnapping of Eliza Fletcher, a young mother and billionaire heiress who was out for a jog. That story made international headlines, though it has since faded into the background after the suspect in the case was found to be a multiple felon. The city of Memphis hasn't even had time to recover from that terrible crime before this new one sprung up. 

Some people are saying that we should not repost video of the attack, but I disagree. Indeed, I think it's damn foolish to ban the suspect from social media since his postings and videos could be used to actually catch the suspect. Sure, it's disturbing what he is doing and I don't want people to emulate him, but the suspect is on the run and needs to be caught. And now we won't be able to see any of that information as it is happening, making the job of the police even harder. 

The shooting video is quite disturbing as it shows how quickly something like this could happen. The entire shooting probably took less than five seconds and gave almost no time to react. By the time the victim realized something was going on, he had already been shot. It just shows how quickly these things can happen. 

The suspect seems like he was out of his mind, possibly on drugs. I could only understand about a thirds of what he was saying and none of what I did understand made much sense. It does seem like he puts a particular importance on people thinking what he is doing is real, and not fake. Why someone would want to fake something like this is beyond me, but it does go to show his possible state of mind. 

If there is a larger lesson from this it's that crime is out of control. These kinds of spree killings are getting more common and less explainable. But given the state of the country, I am honestly surprised it doesn't happen more often. There is nothing to gain from this kind of attack other than notoriety, but that seems like what this suspect wanted.