Syria's time in the wilderness ends as many Arab states send representatives to meet with Assad.

 

Bashar al-Assad meets with members of the Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union. Al-Jazeera/Reuters.

Relations between Syria and other Arab states is warming as Assad meets with delegations across the Arab world. Al-Jazeera. Delegates from Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, Libya, the UAE, Oman and Lebanon met with Bashar al-Assad. Assad has been isolated from other Arab countries since the 2011 crackdown on protests that led to the Syrian Civil War. However, the recent earthquakes that devastated Syria and Turkey have led to a large number of donations from foreign governments and a warming of relations between Syria and the rest of the Arab world. Even Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which supported rebels during the war, have sent assistance. Assad has also had high level meetings with Egyptian and Jordan, and has visited Oman and the UAE. 

My Comment:

This is a fairly important development and it is one that is being ignored by western press. Syria normalizing relations with its neighbors is a big deal and one that could eventually lead to the end of the Syrian Civil War. It's a fairly large diplomatic coup that Syria has pulled off here. 

To be fair, much of the reason is because of the massive earthquakes. Though the damage to Turkey got most of the press, Syria also had major damage to their country. And much of that damage was done to areas that were already devastated by the civil war. It really was a humanitarian nightmare so it is no surprise that the Arab world is stepping up to help. 

More importantly it shows that American influence is fading fast in the Arab world. Most of the Arab world hates Joe Biden, with the Saudis especially sick and tired of the man after his poor treatment of the country. Under Trump and Obama, I can't imagine these Arab governments infuriating America like this, but nobody cares anymore under Biden.  

It really shows that the Syria adventure was a total failure for the United States. The goal was to remove Bashar al-Assad and it failed, miserably. Assad isn't going anywhere, the rebel groups are gone and it's pretty clear that nothing much is going to change. And a whole lot of people died in Syria for little reason. 

And that's to say nothing of the blowback we experienced for the Arab Spring. The Syrian civil war spawned ISIS, which still lingers on to this day. Though nowhere near their peak, the terror group is still a thread. And it's important to remember just how bad things were with ISIS just a few years ago. They had taken over most of Iraq, Syria and Libya and had outposts in Afghanistan and Egypt. And they committed countless terror attacks across the world.  

What is really infuriating is not only did our Syria adventure fail, it's not even on the radar anymore. We still have troops there, which would come as a surprise if you only paid attention to what Joe Biden says. Our foreign policy is focused on Ukraine and nothing else. Sometimes it makes the news when there is an attack on one of our bases or there are airstrikes but nothing much else. Indeed, most people aren't even going to know that Syria is normalizing relations with its neighbors... 

Department of Energy now concludes that the Coronavirus pandemic was a lab leak from Wuhan China

 

The Wuhan Institute of Virology. Fox News. 

The Department of Energy now concludes that the Coronavirus pandemic was a lab leak from Wuhan China. Fox News. The Energy Department was previously neutral but has joined the FBI in saying that the pandemic was a lab leak. The information was obtained from a top secret report that was provided to congress. The theory was dismissed as a "conspiracy theory" during the early stages of the pandemic. Republicans in congress blasted the report, which first appeared in the Wall Street Journal. Other government agencies disagree that the lab was the source of the virus. 

My Comment:

I'm kind of surprised that this is making the news again. I had generally considered that the lab-leak theory is the default position for most people now. It's only not mentioned for the same reason that we don't recognize that Taiwan is an independent country. Because if we do we will upset China and nobody has the courage to do that. 

I never thought any other theory was that credible in the first place. The coronavirus that caused the pandemic was evolved from a virus only found in bats that live thousands of miles from Wuhan, where the pandemic started. But there were several research labs in Wuhan that were a very likely source. And given China's low safety standards it would not be a surprise if it had happened that way. 

Though Republicans are making noise about punishing China I know that nothing much will happen. Even if 100% irrevocable proof was provided China would not face any kind of retribution for what they did. There is zero energy in the Biden White House for dealing with China as they are focused on Ukraine to the exclusion of all other topics. 

What congress should do is to make sure that nothing like this ever happens again and they could do that by banning gain of function research on new viruses. The pandemic would have never have happened if they hadn't been allowed to do this. Of course, America had already banned gain of function, which is why the research was outsourced to China in the first place. We know that Congress isn't going to do anything to China so they should fix whatever loophole allowed this to happen in the first place. 

As for the pandemic itself, it has largely been forgotten. I know that I have zero concern about catching the virus at this point since it isn't that much worse than a bad cold or a weak flu now for the vast majority of people. Other than people questioning who is responsible for this it's largely a non-issue now. 

Ukraine President Zelenskyy says he will meet with Chinese President Xi over peace proposal.

 

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Yahoo News/AP.

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that he will meet with China's President Xi Jinping over a peace proposal to end the war with Russia. Yahoo News. China released a 12 point proposal that called for the resumption of peace talks along with ending sanctions against Russia. Zelenskyy said he would work with China if they had ideas "that correspond to international law or territorial integrity, and some security considerations.” Russia has also welcomed China's efforts, with Russia's Foreign minister saying they were willing to achieving the goals of the "special military operation" through diplomacy. 

China's 12 point proposal can be found here. 

My Comment:

If true this might end up being a gamechanger for the war in Ukraine. Actual peace talks could every well end the war and now is a very good time to do it. All sides invovled would get something out of ending the war as soon as possible, including the Chinese. 

For Ukraine, ending the war now would probably be the best possible outcome. Russia is, very slowly, rolling back their defenses and it's very possible that they will make a breakthrough sooner or later. Russia hasn't quite launched their major offensive yet, largely due to the weather, and when that happens they will likely take a lot more territory, assuming the Ukrainian military doesn't collapse entirely. If they make a play for peace now they will do so in a much stronger position than later in the year. 

For Russia ending the war now is also a good thing. Russia has largely avoided heavy casualties (comparatively) for their actual military as they have left much of the fighting to their Donbass allies, Chechen fighters and Wagner mercenaries/prison battalions. That will change during the next offensive and could leave them losing a lot of equipment and men in their regular army. Ending the war will also likely lift sanctions against them which would help their economy and get the gas flowing back to Europe. 

For China brokering a peace deal would be a huge deal and would improve their reputation. And it would likely improve relations with both Russia and Ukraine and could ensure neutrality or even out and out assistance for any conflict with Taiwan. It would also humiliate their western counterparts and that is a major bonus. 

Of course almost everyone would benefit from the Ukraine conflict slowing down if for no other reason that the chances of nuclear war would go down significantly. Any use of nuclear weapons, either by the Russians against Ukraine or the West against Russia, would have global consequences and would likely destroy the worlds economy, not to mention the millions of people that would die. 

The only people who don't benefit from a peace deal is the western warmongers and defense contractors. They want this war to continue as they still seem to believe that Russia is only weeks away from collapse, militarily and politically. I have seen no evidence of that happening and even if it did there is no evidence that it would end well for anyone, since nuclear war would likely be the outcome. 

What worries me is that the United States and NATO will again attempt to derail the peace talks, like they did near the start of the war. Zelenskyy and Putin were close to some agreement but Boris Johnson, PM of the UK at the time, torpedoed the whole thing under orders from Biden. That could obviously happen again, without Boris Johnson of course. 

My hope is that some of the signs are there that the west too is getting tired of this game. Biden is facing opposition at home and abroad to the unlimited funding he is giving Ukraine. He has had difficulty getting people to provide tanks to Ukraine and the fighter jet proposal appears to be DOA. Republicans in congress are getting tired of the constant gifts to Ukraine and there is a real anti-war movement starting in both the United States and Europe. It's very possible that Biden and his handlers might be looking for an off-ramp and China could provide one for them. 

Still, there is a lot of things that could go wrong here. I think the sticking point is going to be the exchange of territory. Zelenskyy is still publicly claiming that Crimea is still going to be Ukrainian, even though they have no realistic way of capturing it politically or militarily, let alone the Donbass regions that have already voted to join Russia. And Russia is not going to give up territory that they have paid a heavy price for. And I have ZERO faith in Joe Biden doing the right thing. As Barack Obama said, never underestimate Joe Biden's ability to fuck things up... 

Is China planning to convert hundreds of obsolete fighters into suicide drones?

 

Chinese Chengdu J-7 fighters. The Daily Mail/Getty.

China may be planning to convert its massive fleet of Chengdu J-7 fighters into suicide drones. The Daily Mail. The J-7's are China's copy of the old Soviet MIG-21 and are decades out of date. They are expected to be fully retired as manned aircraft in 2023. In a hypothetical war between China and Taiwan the converted aircraft could be used to strike targets and overwhelm Taiwanese air defenses. The rumor was first reported in the Global Times, a Chinese state sponsored news outlet. It is also possible that the aircraft will used for training or in a reserve role. China has around 400 of the jets. 

The Global Times article can be found here. 

My Comment:

The MIG-21 derived J-7's are obsolete but it's not like MIG-21's aren't in service in other countries. Even India used them against Pakistan in their 2019 skirmish, but they ended up losing one of them to the more advanced Pakistani fighters. They are still being used by other countries besides China, despite them being extremely old and out of date. 

I do think that this is a good idea for China if it turns out to be true. There isn't much else that these old fighters would be useful for. Even in a reserve role they would not do much against 5th or even 4th generation fighter jets. And I doubt they would survive in a modern AAA environment for very long. 

But that weakness becomes a strength if these fighters are turned into drones. The idea is that Taiwan would be forced to shoot these drones down, depleting their air defenses. They wouldn't have much choice as even if the planes are only loaded with fuel, they could cause a lot of damage crashing into things. And I think you could easily convert them to hold a large amount of explosives. 

Taiwan would then be struck in an impossible choice. Do you let the drone fighters through and let them cause massive damage or do you shoot them down, thus wasting air defenses that might be better used against China's actual fighter jets and more conventional drones?

Of course you could probably have similar effects with more conventional drones, but the problem with that is that you have to build the air frames. You don't need to do that with these old J-7's. I don't think it would take too much effort to convert these fighters to drones and it probably would be less expensive as well. 

The only problem is how old these fighters are. Most of them were made years ago, though supposedly China was still making them as late as 2013. The airframes might not be in the best shape and some of them might be better off being scrapped. Still, it should be a good weapon if they can convert them. 

However, I am not sure it is even going to happen. China is certainly building up forces for a potential war with Taiwan, but the sourcing on the rumor is pretty thin. I mean, Global Times is Chinese propaganda so if it came from them it could very well be true. But the source is just some random military expert who could just be speculating. We probably won't know the truth until we either find a better confirmation or when war with China breaks out... 

Donald Trump visits East Palestine after train derailment.

 

The aftermath of the train derailment. NTSB photo. 

Donald Trump visited East Palestine Ohio after a major train derailment released dangerous chemicals. BBC. Trump brought bottled water and cleaning supplies for the people of the town. Trump was extremely critical of the Biden administration's response to the disaster. The people of East Palestine agreed with Trump, with many of them saying "let's go Brandon". The area went for Trump during the 2020 election. Biden has largely ignored the disaster and Trump pointed out that there was little interest in Biden's administration in dealing with the disaster until he announced he was coming for a visit. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who has been criticized for his lack of response on the disaster, will visit the town on Thursday. 

My Comment:

This was an easy win for Donald Trump. All he had to do was show up and he was already doing better than the Biden administration. The fact that he had cleaning supplies and water with him was just icing on the cake.

You can tell how much of a loss this was for the Biden administration by seeing how shrill Biden supporters are on Twitter. They are saying Trump is a disappointment, criticizing the Trump branded water he handed out and generally acting like the derailment was Trump's fault, despite Biden being in charge for a good two years now. 

And the media? It was pretty hard to find a news article about this visit. There is a reason why I am using the BBC as a source as they were one of the few outlets that actually gave this story some coverage (and mostly fair as well). The only other article I saw that was from a national news outlet was a Politico report that somehow argued that Trump's visit gave Biden some breathing space, a claim that was so bizarre I didn't even read the article. 

Regardless, it just goes to show how badly Biden fumbled this disaster. It wasn't hard for Trump to show up and act like he cared. Will the supplies he dropped off actually help that much? Probably not, but at least he did something and acts like he cares. Biden's not even in the country, too busy trying to start a nuclear war with Russia, and Pete Buttigieg? Don't get me started. 

But it would have been absurdly simple for Biden to have done something. He didn't even have to show up himself, just have FEMA show up with some supplies and have some mid-level functionary there to show the flag a little and a lot of the criticism of Biden would have been avoided. He would have still been blamed for the disaster itself but that was unavoidable. 

So why did Biden and his team fumble this so badly? Like I said, it would have been trivial to act like they were doing something about this disaster, they chose not to do so. Pure incompetence is a good explanation as both Biden and Buttigieg have been incredibly ineffective in their roles. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden himself is still completely unaware that the disaster even happened. 

The other answer is that Biden is so focused on the Ukraine war that he isn't paying attention to anything else. Ukraine has been a black hole of funding and it's sucking away everything else. Despite the lack of attention to foreign policy during the 2020 campaign it is dominating the Biden administration. 

But it is very possible the reason is that Biden and his team simply doesn't care about the people in East Palestine. Very few people in the town and surrounding area voted for Biden and the population is mostly white. These aren't the people that put Biden power, indeed, they are Biden's greatest opponents. It's classic flyover country and the powers that be probably view the people there getting poisoned as a solution, not a problem. 

What will be really interesting is when Pete Buttigieg visits on Thursday. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets called off, given the utter disgust people in East Palestine have for him. If it doesn't it will be a very interesting speech and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Buttigieg gets a very cold shoulder from the people of the town...

Joe Biden accused of putting Ukraine first over America...

 

Biden in Ukraine. NBC News/AFP.

Joe Biden is accused of putting Ukraine ahead of America after a surprise visit to Kiev. NBC News. Biden took the trip to Ukraine at the same time as a major chemical disaster in East Palestine Ohio has occurred. Biden has, as of this writing, not visited the site of the train derailment. Biden was also accused of ignoring the crisis at the US borders while also deserving blame for starting the Ukraine war in the first place. 

My Comment:

If Twitter is any indication the anger over this Ukraine trip is extreme. I know I was furious about it this morning when I read the news. It just feels like such a slap in the face. 

Biden absolutely put Ukraine in front of the disaster in East Palestine. So far the Biden administration hasn't shown up there at all, despite it being a major chemical disaster. Pete Buttigieg tried to blame Donald Trump, but even that is more than Biden has done. As far as I know he hasn't even acknowledged the disaster happened. 

It's utterly absurd because handling the disaster would have been easy. All Biden had to do is show up with some federal disaster funding and the story would have been essentially a non-issue. Instead the Biden administration downplayed the incident and totally botched the response. Indeed, it's hard to conclude anything other than total incompetence or actual malice in Biden's response to the disaster. 

And it's hardly the only thing Biden put on the back burner. The border is an absolute mess as well. Crime is out of control, the economy is weak and people are still dealing with inflation. Biden has done nothing about any of this and is indeed causing much of it. Under Trump, the border, for example, was a solved issue. Not so much under Biden. 

So what is Biden's priority? Giving money to Ukraine to fund a war that is not only unwinnable, but one that would expand into a nuclear exchange. Ukraine was never a vital strategic interest and we have done massive damage to our economy and the economy of our allies. And for what? Biden's bank account? We all know Biden is corrupt and used Ukraine to launder money through his son, Hunter. 

It just shows how disconnected Biden is from regular Americans. Sure, some people care about the outcome in Ukraine, but most of them aren't willing to accept a worse standard of living to do so. And that doesn't count the people that are opposed to the war or want Russia to win. Either way, Ukraine is not the issue they want Biden to deal with. 

Canada's intelligence services believe that China interfered in 2021's election in favor of Justin Trudeau.

 

Conservative party leader Erin O'Toole during the 2021 election. Bloomberg.

Canada's intelligence services believe that China interfered in 2021's election in favor of Justin Trudeau's liberal party. Bloomberg. Chinese officials expressed a desire to have Trudeau to win a minority government. Trudeau's liberals ended up with 160 seats, 10 shy of a majority. The Chinese are alleged to have accomplished this by using their Chinese diaspora in the country, who were encouraged to vote against Conservative candidates. The Chinese government was also accused of illegally donating to political candidates and reimbursing legal donors. Conservatives also accuse China of using social media and ethnic news sites to spread disinformation about them. The issue will likely cause issues for embattled Prime Minster Justin Trudeau. 

My Comment:

For all the noise and investigation against Russia during and after the 2016 election, I always wondered if China was doing so. Russia ended up running a couple twitter accounts and ran a few facebook pages. But it appears that China was directly interfering with Canada's 2021 federal election. 

The one thing that wasn't made clear is what China gains from a divided government in Canada. They wanted the Liberals to have a minority government and not a majority but I don't know how that helps Canada. I am far from an expert on Canada's elections or China's goals. 

Still, this was a lot bigger than Russia's mostly non-existent efforts in 2016. China stands accused of not only spreading misinformation, they are accused of spending money on candidates directly and ordering their former citizens to vote against the Conservatives. That's a lot more than a couple of small twitter accounts. 

This is a huge problem for Canada and a national security threat. Their 2021 election is tainted and Justin Trudeau is as well. He didn't win the election fairly and that calls into question everything that he has done since then. Given how controversial Trudeau is that's a huge problem. 

It also raises the question if Trudeau or the Liberals were coordinated with these efforts. They obviously benefited form it but that doesn't necessarily mean that they colluded. But it is very possible that they did indeed collude with China and that would be treasonous. Though if they did do so, I think it's hilarious that China only gave them enough help to get a minority government instead of a majority. 

Some of these efforts are probably not applicable to America. There is a Chinese diaspora here in the United States but they aren't anywhere near as large as Canada's. There might be a couple of elections nationally that could be affected by this kind of interference but I doubt there is much of it. 

I am much more concerned about China using the illegal donors and reimbursing people that donate legally. There is absolutely no reason why China couldn't do that here in the United States as well as in Canada. 

What really gets me is that I doubt these revelations will change anything in the United States. Election interference doesn't count unless it's the Russians that do it. And I doubt that China is the only other country that tried. Indeed, given how important our elections are, I would be surprised if there weren't dozens of countries that try to do so every election. 

  

ISIS attack in Syria leaves more than 60 people dead.

 

File photo of US Troops in Syria. France24/AP.

An ISIS attack in Syria has left 68 people dead. AFP. 61 of the dead were civilians and the rest were Assad regime soldiers. The attackers shot at people while mounted on bikes. The civilians were largely truffle hunters who harvest the fungus between February and April. The attack was the deadliest ISIS attack in Syria since the attack on a prison in Hasakeh last year. This attack occurred in the southwest of Syria near the town of al-Sokhna. ISIS has not been the powerhouse they once were in the region and have largely retreated to the desserts, though they still occasionally launch attacks in Syria and Iraq. 

My Comment:

An ISIS leader was also killed in the opposite part of Syria, northeast. Supposedly this leader blew himself up during a raid that was targeting him and four US soldiers and a working dog were injured in the blast. That incident had nothing to do with this one but it does show that ISIS is still around and still making news. 

What struck me with this incident is that it was in Southwest Syria, which really doesn't seem to be where most of their recent operations have been. ISIS was traditionally strong in the northeastern part of the country, though they did have some territory in the southwest as well. It appears the regime does not hold the area there as strongly as I once thought. 

The attack appears to be a fairly effective one. Mounted troops can rapidly attack and are fast enough that they can get away after shooting their targets. It's unclear from the articles I have seen if this was a single attack targeting one group of people or multiple ones but either way using bikes like this is a low tech but effective way to kill large numbers of people at once. 

ISIS has largely fallen out of the news but they are still a problem in Syria and Iraq. They are nowhere near as powerful as they were during their peak but they are still capable of carrying out attacks. I don't think they are going to be taking and holding territory like they did in the middle of last decade but they could present a regional risk of more attacks like this. 

Still, it's very possible that ISIS could make a resurgence. Syria itself is no longer important on the main stage and Ukraine is taking away a lot of the attention ISIS would normally get. Some people even think that ISIS is a solved problem and not something we need to worry about anymore. I disagree as they have proven to be remarkably resilient and it wouldn't take much for them to rebuild what they have lost... 

Senator JD Vance takes video showing how polluted the water is in East Palestine Ohio.

 

An environmental crew removing dead fish from a creek. Fox News/Reuters.

Senator JD Vance has taken video showing how polluted the water is in East Palestine Ohio after the train derailment that poisoned the area. Fox News. Vance walked to a creek and said there were dead fish and worms everywhere. He also scraped the bottom of the creek and a chemical sheen quickly bubbled up. Though chemical sheens can happen from oil spills and natural bacteria, its likely that the sheen was from the chemical spill. The EPA says the local municipal water and air quality is safe for humans now though Vance complained of a bad smell when he was in East Palestine. 

Visited a local creek in East Palestine today. These waterways are still very polluted. It’s time for Norfolk Southern to finish the cleanup. Check this video out: pic.twitter.com/4lsHBmrMJj

— J.D. Vance (@JDVance1) February 16, 2023

 My Comment:

This story is not going away. People are extremely angry about this incident and the poor response from the government. There are people like Senator Vance that are trying to draw attention to it but they are the exception, not the rule. Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg and the governors of both Ohio and Pennsylvania are getting most of the blame. 

I do think that the situation in East Palestine is not good. Though I have seen sheens like that in my own home waters, that are dramatically more polluted than these creeks would be under normal circumstances, I haven't seen anything that bad before. That creek is not doing well at all and I think it will take a long time to for it to recover. 

Of course just because the creek is doing badly it doesn't mean the town is. Supposedly the EPA says the drinking water and air quality are safe. I actually think they are probably right about the water. My guess is that the town is drawing water from the aquifer which probably hasn't had time to get polluted by the chemicals. 

Air quality might be better by now as well. Winds might have blown most of the chemicals out of the town and what was there has probably settled into the ground. The air quality in the houses are a different story. East Palestine isn't a rich area and I am betting that the houses are very drafty and a lot of chemicals got into the houses. 

Given the high lethality and carcinogens found in these chemicals, I don't think it is anywhere near safe to head home yet. Indeed, it's absurd to me that these people haven't been put up in a hotel somewhere. The people that have stayed in the town are at an extreme risk of health effects and even death in the long term. 

The real question is how widespread the damage from this train derailment will be. Is it just one town or is it the entire region? With the size of the chemical cloud from the "controlled burn" and the detection of contaminants in the Ohio Rive I am thinking it will be a larger threat than just one town. It really just depends on luck now and I doubt we will know the full extent of the damage for a long time. 

What I do know is that people are furious about this, even beyond the obvious damage that this disaster has caused. People are calling this America's Chernobyl. I think that's a bit overstated in terms of damage done, but I do think it's true in terms of anger. The kind of anger I am seeing on social media is beyond what I saw even for the 2020 election. 

Why are people so upset? It's largely the response from the federal government and media. Though the media is now finally covering the story they had to be shamed into it by both social media and the few mainstream media figures that brought the story to the limelight, mostly on Fox News. 

And the Federal Government? They are still downplaying it. Biden has mostly remained silent and Pete Buttigieg, the Transportation Secretary, is trying to blame everything on Donald Trump, who, I must remind you, is not the president anymore. And some people have tried to blame Trump but as far as I can tell there isn't any facts to that accusations, but for the sake of argument, let's say there was. Biden and Buttigieg have been in power for more than two years now, the buck stops with them. 

The message that people are getting from both the media and the government is that they simply don't care about the people that live in "flyover" country, and I don't think they are wrong. If this disaster had happened in a blue state or minority area the federal government would be all over this, screaming about racism. But because East Palestine is a white area that went for Trump they don't care if they get sick and die. Indeed, for them that might be a solution, not a problem and people are finally starting to understand what the powers that be really think about them. That's what this disaster is really about, the government simply doesn't care about the people anymore and we are going to have to figure out what to do about that. 

North Korea facing food crisis, cuts rations for soldiers.

 

A North Korean boy in a farm field damaged by a storm. Reuters/Fox News.

North Korea is facing a major food crisis with the government cutting rations for soldiers. Fox News. The reduction in food rations has not happened since 2000. The government also held an urgent meeting on food supplies on February 6th. There are claims that North Korea's food stores have fallen below what is required to allow people to survive. North Korea has a long history of famines due to natural disasters. North Korea is also under major sanctions due to their nuclear weapons program and what trade they did have was cut off in an effort to prevent the Coronavirus spreading in the country. 

My Comment:

This is not a good situation. North Korea has a long history of starvation and it looks like there might be another round right now. This is bad news for everyone because North Korea tends to cause problems when they are facing starvation, which is somewhat understandable. 

To be fair, it's possible that the South Korean report about soldiers being put on reduced rations isn't even true. South Korea noted that they could be wrong about the report. But there are other indications that North Korea is facing starvation. They have long had agricultural problems and they have not really opened up trade that much since they sealed the country off during the pandemic. 

If the reports about them reducing rations for soldiers is true it's probably a bad sign. For a despotic regime like North Korea there is a need for soldiers to keep order. And there is always a chance that if the soldiers aren't fed properly that they will revolt and replace the Kim regime. Reducing their rations is probably the last thing you would want to do which means that North Korea is out of options. 

In the past when North Korea faced famine they resorted to saber rattling. They do this to try and extract foreign aid to help feed their country. It has been largely successful in the past and there is a decent chance that it would work again. 

It is very possible we might see some major saber rattling from North Korea soon. They have already been launching missiles into the ocean but I am expecting something a bit more severe. It has been a very long time since North Korea has tested a nuclear weapon and it's very possible that they may do so again if things don't turn around. 

I do think that sanctions in general aren't working in North Korea or anywhere else. Sanctions seem to do nothing to actually change the policies of these countries. Indeed, the sanctions against Russia seems to have helped the country. If sanctions against North Korea were eased they might have a better chance at feeding their people. But given the fact that they are so isolationist perhaps it wouldn't matter. 

The US is pressuring Ukraine to show results or face the possibility of being cut off from supplies.

 

Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Washington Post. 

The United States is pressuring Ukraine to show results or face the possibility of cut off from support. Washington Post. So far Ukraine has largely gotten what they have asked in terms of western support, but Republicans in congress are no longer willing to write blank checks for Ukraine. Biden has also said he will back Ukraine but have warned Ukraine that funding could be cut off as soon as summer. Biden is demanding an offensive from Ukraine to show results, but there are questions how Ukraine could even launch an offensive while at the same time defending Bakhmut, a town that Ukraine has deemed critical. An attack on Crimea has been proposed but Ukraine does not seem capable of doing so. 

My Comment:

It's rare that I use the Washington Post as a source. I consider them to be a deep state mouthpiece and not journalists for the most part. They don't report the news, they tell you what the government wants you to hear. 

In this case it's actually useful as this is essentially the Biden Administration admitting that the war is not going their own way and that Ukraine has to do something to keep the flow of money and weapons going. This has of course happened before, many of Ukraine's offensives have been less about actually taking territory and beating the Russians and more about optics. 

And optics is the only way that Ukraine is winning the war and that is starting to change. People in congress are now openly questioning why we are risking World War III with Russia over Ukraine, especially since it appears that nothing is being accomplished there. With Republicans in charge of congress, there is the possibility of actual debate happening about sending even more money to Ukraine. 

An offensive that takes territory from the Russians would be about the only way to silence these voices in congress. Indeed, previous "victories" from Ukraine, did help them secure funding from congress. It doesn't matter that those victories were mostly about Russia shortening their lines so they could better prepare for offensives. 

But I honestly don't think they have much of a chance of doing so. Ukraine has lost so many troops and equipment that I don't think they have the ability to take a large amount of territory. Bakhmut was a disaster for them and they took horrendous casualties trying to defend the city. The Wagner group has now steadily advanced there and has the city essentially surrounded, with any retreat going to have to go through major artillery fire. Plus the much ballyhooed wunderwaffen's being sent to Ukraine won't be ready any time soon and the tanks and IFV's won't be ready until summer at the earliest. 

All of this is of course moot if Russia has success in their long awaited offensive. Indeed, many people think that the offensive has already begun, with many probing actions and skirmishes along the front lines. And when Bakhmut falls, the question remains where are the Ukrainians going to retreat too? Assuming they are even allowed to retreat, given the bad military situation and the fact that Ukraine seems to want to defend the city to the last man. 

As I have said before I think that the war in Ukraine has a few ways to end, and a Ukrainian victory is not one of them. In short, it will either be a major Russian victory, a negotiated settlement from a Russian position of power, or World War III breaking out. As of this post I think the 1st and 2nd options are more likely. 

The third option seemed horrifyingly likely until recently and that's why this report from the Washington Post is somewhat of a relief. If the Biden administration is admitting that the funding for Ukraine isn't unlimited and that they should abandon their defensive war and try to launch an offensive, it shows that they understand that eventually the war could end without a victory. That makes me think that they are at least partially rational and will avoid doing something even stupider than sending German tanks to Ukraine. I could be wrong about that, Biden has proven to be very unstable, but I am crossing my fingers. 

Ohio train derailment released toxic chemicals in the air.

 

The plume of smoke from the train derailment in East Palestine Ohio. AP.

A trail derailment in East Palestine Ohio has released toxic chemicals into the air. Yahoo News. The accident happened in February 3rd. The train released chemicals including vinyl chloride, a chemical used in plastic production. However, the chemical is extremely toxic and can cause multiple kinds of cancer. The town was evacuated and residence have since been allowed back into their homes. The chemical released caused a major fish kill in local streams as well as causing deaths among animals and livestock. There are also concerns that the cloud of vinyl chloride may have contaminated the Ohio river. 

My Comment:

This story has been bubbling under the surface for a couple weeks now. I had been paying attention to it because despite the fact that the story going viral on websites like Twitter, 4chan and Reddit, the mainstream media was not paying attention to it at all, largely due to the Chinese spy balloon issue. 

But this is appears to be one of the worst environmental disasters in recent American history. If water has been contaminated then there is a real chance of this being even bigger than reported. The Ohio River is a major waterway and a lot of people get their drinking water from the system. 

The hope is that most of the vinyl chloride burned up during the controlled detonation of the derailed train cars. But there is no chance that all of it did. Some of this escaped and people were likely exposed to it. Given how dangerous the chemical is there will likely be quite a few cases of cancer from this disaster and more than a few deaths. 

The environmental problems might be worse than just the cancer causing vinyl chloride. Supposedly the toxic cloud caused some acid rain to fall as well, which could damage Pennsylvania's forests. This would be horrible for the environment and could cause more fish kills and damage to trees. Not to mention contaminating further water supplies. 

There are major political implications for this story and the lack of coverage. There was a major controversy recently with the American rail system as many unions went on strikes. Most of the issue was about paid time off, but safety concerns were brought up as well. Biden decided he wasn't going to let the rail unions strike and had congress pass a bill stopping it. Since safety was a major concern it's very possible that decision lead directly to this accident. 

I think Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg bears quite a bit of responsibility for this as well. This happened on his watch as well, and there have been many other failures for him during his short tenure. He's not doing a good job and it's not a good sign that the Transportation Secretary is constantly in the news. Indeed, today he was talking about white contractors are taking jobs from people of color, which is about as irrelevant as you can get. 

I don't expect any of the problems that caused this accident to be fixed or for the people that have been injured to get any justice either. I just have very little faith in our government to be at all competent anymore. It's been a problem for awhile but under Joe Biden it's accelerating... 

Balloon wars continue: Third object shot down by F-22, this time in Canada.

 

File photo of a F-22 Raptor. Fox News. 

A third object has been shot down by an American F-22, this time in Canadian air space. Fox News. The object was detected by NORAD and Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau ordered it shot down. A US F-22 fighter jet got the kill with another AIM 9X Sidewinder. Canadian air assets, including CF-18s and CP-140s were in the area as well. The shoot down comes after the shoot down of a Chinese spy balloon last week and another shoot down of an unknown object yesterday. It is suspected that both objects are also spy balloons, but considerably smaller than the one from last week. 

Meanwhile, another incident occurred in Montana, where air space was briefly closed after an unknown object was seen on radar. Fox News. F-15 fighter jets were scrambled but were unable to locate any object. 

My Comment:

After the anemic reaction to the first Chinese spy balloon, it seems clear that Joe Biden and now Justin Trudeau are going the other way with it now, shooting down any and every balloon that they see. I am guessing that Biden lost quite a bit of face when he allowed the first balloon to completely cross US air space and is now trying to look tough. 

To be fair, I think shooting these down is the right thing to do. We shouldn't allow the Chinese (or whoever is launching these balloons) a free pass to our air space. And without knowing what exactly these objects are it's very possible that these could be a large threat. America has come under balloon attack before and it would be very easy for that to happen again. There is even a precedence for the use of balloons in biological warfare, so we have every reason to be concerned about balloons as a possible vector of attack. 

With that being said, I think things are getting a bit out of control. People are not used to this kind of thing and it really shows. Biden is out to lunch as always and isn't doing anything to reassure people that things are ok and it is having some bad effects. 

The messaging is pretty terrible as well. Instead of calling these things balloons, which by all accounts is what they appear to be, they are calling them objects, immediately drawing comparisons to UFO theories and the very real encounters our military has had with UAP's. Half of social media believes that aliens getting shot down and the other half thinks that the whole thing is just a distraction, via an old school Project Bluebeam conspiracy. Needless to say I don't support either theory but the fact is that if the Pentagon had been even a little clearer on their language none of this would be happening. 

What I don't know is if this is a panic by the United States or not. My guess is that these balloons were common and unknown until now but since the big balloon was detected we adjusted our radar and have found out that there actually was a pretty extensive balloon program from the Chinese. I doubt that these things are new and probably have been flying over the United States for a long time. The smaller balloons, which the 2nd and 3rd ones appear to be, might not have been detectable on the ground through traditional means. 

I think that the threat is real, but I also don't think that Biden is handling this crisis at all well. A real leader would be trying to tamp down on the panic that appears to be building and would be trying to get answers from China (and whoever else might be involved). Biden does not appear to be doing that at all and does not seem to be at all in control of the narrative. 

Finally, I do wonder why it was our F-22's that shot down this last object instead of Canada's own defense forces. They had CF-18's and given the altitudes mentioned, they should have been able to engage these balloons on their own. The only things I can think of is perhaps the CF-18's weren't armed or that the F-22 has a better electronics suite to actually engage these things. Either way, it's a bit strange and even a bit frustrating, that the Canadians didn't shoot this down themselves.  

F-22 shoots down an object flying over Alaska.

 

An F-22 firing an AIM-9x Sidewinder. Public Domain.

A F-22 fighter shot down an object flying in Alaska airspace. Fox News. The object was flying around 40,000 feet and was deemed a threat to civilian air travel. Joe Biden ordered the object shot down and an F-22 Raptor engaged the object and destroyed it with an AIM-9x Sidewinder. The object was much smaller than the Chinese spy balloon that was shot down last week, being the size of a small car. Debris from the object was recovered from the ocean. At this time it is unclear who launched the object and what its purpose is. The object was called a balloon, though very little other information is known at this time. 

My Comment:

The Pentagon is being pretty vague about this balloon and it's causing a bit of drama on Twitter. Given the description of the object, a smaller silvery cylinder, a lot of people are comparing it to the so-called "tic-tac" UFO's described in the 2004 USS Nimitz incident. 

As hilarious as it would be if Joe Biden accidently started an interstellar war with some unknown alien power, that's pretty obviously not what has happened here. The object was confirmed to be another balloon, not an alien UFO. Indeed, I would hope that if it had been an UFO that the military and government would be smart enough to not shoot it down. 

More seriously, this was a pretty severe violation of our air space. Unlike the previous spy balloon this one was flying fairly low at 40,000 feet, which means it could have collided with a commercial air flight. That could have caused a major disaster and on that basis alone this should have been shot down. 

The F-22 was used again and I just think it's hilarious that our super fighter jet has only ever been used to shoot down balloons. It would be a hell of a legacy if that's the only air-to-air kills the plane ever gets. 

My guess is that this was another surveillance drones and the fact that it was over Alaska narrows down the suspects quite a bit. Obviously China is the main suspect given their actions with the previous balloon. They aren't the only suspect because Russia could have this technology as well. It could also be something from Japan or either Korea but I find that pretty unlikely. Indeed, I'm going on the assumption that this was another Chinese balloon. 

As for the purpose, I would assume it is another surveillance balloon. The only other real purpose for such a balloon is weather and I doubt that is the case here. You don't need a large balloon for weather purposes. 

I do wonder if China is doing viability tests for these balloons. My assumption is that during a potential China/US war, satellite surveillance is going to quickly become a thing of the past due to anti-satellite weapons and the large field of debris such an engagement would cause. Balloons would be a possible solution to this problem, but China needs to see if they can get past our defenses or not. So far it seems the answer to that is no as we were able to track and destroy both of these balloons. 

Regardless, I do think that the "balloon war" will continue. China can learn a lot from continuing to launch balloons and they also know that Biden's response to this has caused a fair bit of criticism to go his way. They know that the United States lost a quite a bit of face when they failed to react to the first balloon and now China knows how to press our buttons. I expect more of this in the future. 

Ukraine says Russia has amassed 500,000 troops, 1800 tanks and 400 fighter jets and expected to launch an offensive in the next 10 days.

 

Map showing the forces Russia has built up and possible avenues for attacks. New York Post

Ukraine says that Russia has amassed a massive force to attack Ukraine and a new offensive is expected in the next 10 days. New York Post. An Ukrainian official claimed that 500,000 troops, 1800 tanks, 400 fighter jets and 300 helicopters have been mobilized and are getting ready to attack. Another Ukrainian official claimed on the record that Russia had 300,000 to 500,000 troops to deploy into the battle. The attack is likely to occur in the Luhansk and Donetsk areas. 

My Comment:

The defense official quoted by the original article in Foreign Policy spoke anonymously, so that is a bit of a red flag about these numbers. As always, keep in mind that anonymous sources are often unreliable at best or made up at worst. The fact that a 2nd source confirmed the number of Russian troops makes the story a bit more credible, but I also have very little trust from anyone on the Ukrainian side of this war. They have been caught lying too many times for me to trust them blindly. 

So why post this? Because I think there is at least some truth to these rumors. It's been clear for awhile now that Russia was building forces and I can't imagine that they would mobilize so many soldiers if they weren't going to use them. And I think the numbers cited here look about right for the kind of offensive that the Russians want to launch. 

What we don't know is what this offensive will look like. Russia has had good success in their attrition warfare and I am not sure that they will want to launch a huge maneuver warfare offensive. It's very possible that Russia will continue their artillery offensive which is grinding down forces in Bakhmut across a larger front. In that case, it wouldn't look like much of an offensive even though the goal would not be to occupy territory but destroy Ukrainian units instead. And once those units are destroyed or routed then they actually start to move in and take territory. That's what they did in Mariupol and it's what they are doing in Bakhmut. 

If they do decide to attack in a more traditional maneuver warfare attack the question becomes where they are going to launch it. The conventional wisdom is that it will be in the Donbass as much of their territorial claims are in that area. Doing so would check off one of their main war goals, though they would still have destroying the Ukrainian military on the list. 

Part of me thinks that the drive could instead go towards Odessa. Odessa is a major port and leaving it in Ukrainian hands post-war would ensure that Ukraine had access to naval assets and foreign support. Since their main goal is de-militarization, letting Odessa stay in Ukrainian hands seems like a bad idea. Still, the Russians haven't moved in that direction through most of the war. 

I also don't buy the timing of this attack has much to do with western tank deliveries. I think that the timetable for deliveries is ridiculously optimistic. And even if they are delivered I think the Ukraine war has proven pretty conclusively that tanks aren't the battlefield dominators they once were. Both sides of the war have taken very heavy losses in terms of tanks. I don't see why these new German, British and American tanks would be any different. 

I do think that Putin wants to end the war on a faster timetable. His opponents in the west are becoming unhinged and continue to escalate the war for very little reason. A major Ukrainian defeat would be a huge loss of credibility for the neocons currently infesting the United States and Europe. It would probably force negotiations that even Joe Biden couldn't derail this time around. 

New York Times admits that the situation for Ukraine is not good and that Bakhmut will fall soon.

 

A funeral for a soldier in Ukraine. New York Times. 

The New York Times has admitted that the situation for Ukraine is not good and that Bakhmut will likely fall soon. Ukrainian troops are saying they are outnumbered already, even before the troops Russia mobilized arrive to the front. Civilians are already planning on fleeing the area as Russia slowly advances in Eastern Ukraine. Everyone is expecting a major Russian offensive in the next few weeks, which may involve an envelopment that could cut of Ukrainian soldiers. Russians are also sending small units to test Ukrainian defenses across the front line. Russia has a major advantage in artillery and is starting to deploy more advanced weapons, including the T-90 tanks. Meanwhile, western supplies, including main battle tanks, are unlikely to arrive in time to affect the upcoming battle. Ukrainian troops have also taken very heavy casualties. 

The paywalled version of the New York Times article can be found here. 

My Comment:

This report is a few days old but I thought it was worth discussing. It's one of the first accounts in western media showing that it is possible that Ukraine is losing the war. And it's from the New York Times, which is about of deep state as you can get. And it is far from the only article I have seen with the same theme, many other articles from similar pro-Ukraine news outlets.

Of course the bias was still there in the New York Times report, uncritically reporting ludicrous casualty reports from the United States intelligence apparatus. There is no way Russia has suffered 200,000 casualties, even if you count casualties from the pro-Russian militias in Donbass and the Chechens that fought in Mariupol. 

Still though, I think the report was mostly accurate and it's not like casualty figures on either side is reliable. It has been clear for awhile that Russia was winning the battle of Bakhmut. The real question is why the New York Times is admitting it now. And I think the answer is that they are hedging their bets. There is a very good chance that Bakhmut gets taken in the next few weeks and it will likely be a rout. 

They are still downplaying how badly things are going in Bakhmut. Russia controls part of the city right now and they have artillery control of the ways out of the city. Any Ukrainian troops that are going to try and retreat will have to run a gauntlet of Russian artillery fire. Many of them won't make it and keep in mind this is where Ukraine has deployed many of their best troops. 

Barring some kind of incredibly collapse by Russian forces, which I find extremely unlikely, the Ukrainians are going to be defeated at Bakhmut. And it is likely they will lose before Russia actually deploys their major offensive (which, to be fair, has been expected for months now). The real question is if they can hang on afterwards. It's very possible that they cannot and we could see a collapse of Ukrainian forces. 

Keep in mind that it's largely not Russian units they are facing right now, the Ukrainians in Bakhmut have been fighting the Wagner Group mercenaries. To be fair, Wagner is a highly professional mercenary company and they are actually more experienced in urban warfare than the Russian military is. When Russia sends in their professional forces, between 200,000 and 500,000, things could change quickly. 

The real question is what happens if Russia does make a major breakthrough? In a sane world, Russia and Ukraine would then come to some kind of peace deal. However, the United States has already torpedoed peace efforts before (which is another major admission from western media you didn't see before this week). Still, it's very possible that people in the West will finally admit that it's not worth it to keep sending aid into this meat grinder. The only reason this hasn't happened already is because the media keeps acting like Russia is losing, despite anyone with even a minimal understanding of attrition warfare and industrial production seeing through it. Most people don't have that understanding which is why so many people think that Russia is losing. 

Assuming that there isn't a complete Ukrainian collapse or some kind of peace deal, what happens then? If we are lucky we will return to a status quo ante if the Russian offensive sputters out. But we also have to consider that it might spur Biden to escalate the war further, to the point of open warfare. It seems like that is what Poland wants and Biden's senile and insane enough that he might try it. That would likely start World War III and a nuclear exchange, which might happen anyways given the accusation that the US destroyed the Nordstream pipeline, which is something everyone knew but everyone was afraid to admit...

Trans protesters storm Oklahoma statehouse against bills that would ban childhood transition

 

Protesters in Oklahoma. Fox News/AP.

Trans protesters have stormed the Oklahoma Capitol as the state considers bills that would restrict medical transition. Fox News. The first of the bills, Senate Bill 129, would ban doctors from transitioning or providing referrals for such services for those under the age of 26. Senate bill 252 would do the same for children under the age of 18. Other bills are being considered as well, some of which would ban minors at drag shows, ending public funding for sex change surgery and other LGBT issues. Governor Kevin Stitt argued that if people are under the age of 18 and aren't able to vote, smoke or drink alcohol then they shouldn't be able to change their gender either. 

Many social media users compared the trans activists storming the state capitol to the January 6th demonstrations. Newsweek.  

My Comment:

I thought storming the capitol was an act of insurrection and fully justifies using deadly force against protesters? I guess that doesn't count in this case. To be fair, there didn't appear to be any violence this time but if storming government buildings is a bad thing then it should be bad when these people do the same thing. 

As for the bills itself, I have no idea if they are going to pass. I doubt that Bill 129 would do so as I can't imagine it not being reversed in court. I also don't like the precedent setting 26 as the age of "adulthood" as that could obviously backfire. The same argument made about 18 year olds transitioning could be used against things like gun rights and I don't want that to happen. 

I also think the cited argument for the age being 26 is, quite frankly, bullshit. 18 to 26 year olds are adults, period. It doesn't matter if the brain isn't done developing, if you are 18 you are an adult. Indeed, I think teenagers in general are close to being adults. I certainly didn't feel like a kid when I was 15 anymore. Regardless, arbitrarily changing the age of majority for this issue invites more stupidity like this on other issues. 

Bill 252 seems like it is on a lot more solid ground. With 18 being the age of majority it makes a lot more sense to ban sex change operations at that age instead.  It would be a lot harder to overturn and wouldn't lead to accusations of hypocrisy or arbitrarily change the age of adulthood.  

As for the idea of banning transitions for children, I would strongly agree with it. I'm not a fan of sex change operations in the first place given the high chance of complications and the fact that it doesn't actually change the biological sex. I also don't think most people realize that these surgeries often leave people in pain for the rest of life. I'm generally opposed to most body modification surgery and would ban most of them outright. 

But assuming that's not on the table (and I don't think it is), I do think banning this stuff for children under the age of 18 is a good idea. Most children grow out of this stuff and I am guessing a lot of them are only trying to transition because it's the big cultural fad right now. In many cases it's a permanent, irreversible "solution" for a problem that usually goes away on their own. At 18 they should be able to make a real decision about how they want to live their lives so at that point things might be different, but for children? They aren't capable of making such a major decision at that point of their lives. 

I really do think that the tide is turning against the T part of LGBT activism. They have a long history of pushing things farther than most people are willing to go. I think most people don't have too much of a problem with the idea of an adult deciding to live as another gender. But allowing that hasn't been the argument for awhile now. Now it's handing out puberty blockers, hormones and chest binders to children and if you have a problem with it you are a bigot. People are sick of it and are starting to push back and Oklahoma's new laws is just one example. 

It reminds me of the big video game news (of all things) this week. The trans activist community tried to boycott and cancel the Hogwarts Legacy game because the creator of Harry Potter, J.K. Rowling, has been critical of trans activism. Though she had little to do with the game, the trans activists tried to shame anyone who bought or played the game. This effort failed as the game is selling like hotcakes and is currently the number one streaming game on Twitch. 

It's possible that that was just because Harry Potter is insanely popular (though I have never read it), but I do think the pendulum is swinging the other way. The real question is how far it will swing. I do fear that the backlash against the T portion of LGBT might screw over LGB folks. I personally don't have anything against LBG and don't want them dragged down with T but that is very possible. Still, it's probably unlikely as even many in the LGB community are getting sick of trans activism. 

NATO commander acknowledge massive losses and dwindling supplies in Ukraine conflict.

 

A Ukrainian artillery team. Business Insider/AFP/Getty.

NATO commander US Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli says that the scale of the Ukraine conflict is out of proportion to what NATO is prepared for. Business Insider. Cavoli claims that Ukraine has 37 brigades along with territorial brigades while Russia is averaging 20,000 rounds of artillery a day. The war is far beyond recent NATO military engagements and raises questions about NATO's readiness for further wars. Cavoli also criticized the idea that soft power is more important than hard power, noting that military production is much more important. 

My Comment:

I normally don't use Business Insider as a source but this article seemed pretty important. General Covoli is saying things I have been saying since the start of the war. And it's being printed in a pro-Ukraine outlet. I don't think that this is an admission that Ukraine is losing the war, but it's certainly a development. 

I have always been convinced that Russia would win the war eventually and Cavoli's words are a reason why. Industrial production is what determines who wins a war and right now it's not even close when it comes to military technology. Russia has kept up their production fairly well while the west is reduced to depleting cold war stockpiles. Ukraine has essentially already gone through two armies worth of equipment, the pre-war stuff and the first wave of western arms, and are now getting a third armies worth of equipment. And I doubt there will be a fourth. 

It is also rare to see and admission of just how much in the way of artillery is being used. 20,000 rounds a day is probably a low estimate for Russian forces and is a major reason why Russia has begun to slowly advance. Ukrainian units have withered under Russian fire and simply can't match the fire they are getting. 

I also think that it's interesting that Cavoli admitted that NATO's strategy in Ukraine was to trade territory for time. I think that is pretty obviously true and I also think that it won't work again. There is still a ton of territory in Ukraine but the country simply doesn't have the number of fighters it used to. And I agree that such a strategy would not work in the Baltic states if the unthinkable happens and a war between Russia and NATO began. 

I haven't covered the war for awhile but that does not mean I haven't been paying attention to it. We are all still awaiting the supposed Russian offensive that was supposed to come this Winter. That hasn't really happened but there has been actual movement on the front. The strange thing is that it is the Wagner Group doing most of the fighting near Bakhmut. The Russian Army does not seem to be engaged all that much. I still think some kind of major offensive is coming but it's unclear where and when. 

But even without the big offensive, Russia has seen successes near Bakhmut. Given how much of Ukraine's forces were posted there, it should be a concern for Ukraine that Russia is advancing at all. They aren't even really facing the Russian Army, but the Wagner Group. I think that there are starting to be admissions, including the Business Insider article, that Russia might be on the verge of a breakthrough. 

The US has finally destroyed China's spy balloon a week after it entered US air space.

 

The Chinese spy balloon was discovered in Montana. The Billings Gazette/USA Today/AP.

The United States has finally destroyed a Chinese spy balloon that had entered US air space a week ago. USA Today. The balloon had surveilled much of the United States before it was destroyed over the Atlantic near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. An F-22 got the kill shot with an AIM 9X as the balloon was at an altitude of 65,000 feet. The debris fell in around 47 feet of water and will be recovered. The Pentagon cited fears of civilian casualties or damage from debris as why they did not shoot the balloon down immediately. The launch and destruction of the balloon could have diplomatic consequences. 

The Chinese Spy Ballon has been eliminated. Shot down by fighter jets off the Carolina coast. pic.twitter.com/FunhGnePxQ

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) February 4, 2023

 

Audio from FRANK01 (Langley AFB F-22) calling, “SPASH ONE”confirming to “HUNTRESS” (Eastern Air Defense Sector “EADS”) that the #ChineseSpyBallon is completely destroyed off the coast of South Carolina today 😎
*Big thanks to 📷Brett728 for sharing pics and 🕵️‍♀️ for the audio! pic.twitter.com/8tfZeyeNAy

— Thenewarea51 (@thenewarea51) February 5, 2023

 

🚨#BREAKING: Incredible HD footage of the Chinese surveillance balloon being shot down

🚨#MyrtleBeach l #SC

Watch incredible HD video of the moment when the Chinese surveillance balloon was shot down by a single missile from an F-22 fighter jet from Langley Air Force Base pic.twitter.com/KjwTrgcvcb

— R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) February 4, 2023

My Comment:

Better late then never I guess? The balloon had already accomplished its mission by this point so shooting it down did not accomplish much of anything. By the time it was over the Atlantic Ocean it was already too late. 

Still, it is proof that America does have the technology to shoot down a high altitude balloon. I know I was questioning it myself, given the extreme altitude and general incompetence of the modern US military. The F-22 that got the kill was likely operating at the edge of it's flight capabilities.  

Speaking of the F-22, this will go down as the first combat kill for the fighter jet. The F-22 has been used in combat before but never in its intended air-to-air role. Shooting down a balloon was probably not what the designers had in mind for the jet, but at least it accomplished something. The F-22 is not the first fifth generation fighter jet to get an air-to-air kill though, that honor belongs to the Russian SU-57, which shot down an aircraft in the Ukrainian War. 

Shooting down the balloon will do little to ease the anger people felt over the Chinese spy balloon. There was a lot of absolute incredulity that the balloon was allowed to even enter American air space, let alone fly over most of the United States. Most people appear to be utterly baffled by the decision to wait this long to do so. Indeed, I think it caused quite a bit of panic, especially with the ultimately false reports of an explosion in Billings Montana yesterday. 

I don't buy the Pentagon's excuse that they were worried about civilian casualties and destruction caused by falling debris. For one, if they had shot it down over the Aleutian Islands, when the balloon was first detected in US air space it would have been a moot point. But once the discovery went public there was no reason not to shoot it down over Montana. It's not like Montana is a crowded, heavily populated state and you can't tell me that they couldn't have figured out an area between Montana and South Carolina that was remote enough that this wouldn't be a concern. Besides, it looks like the missile pretty much destroyed the payload of the balloon regardless. 

My guess is that if the balloon hadn't been discovered publicly it would have been allowed to continue on its mission. The Biden administration was apparently ok with this balloon traveling across the United States and did not seem to be interested in doing anything about it until they gave into public pressure.  

America certainly lost a lot of face here. There was a time where there would be no question if an aircraft violation like this would have resulted in a shoot down. But that is apparently not the case anymore. China had a huge propaganda victory here and the Biden administration looked like they were caught sleeping. 

The whole incident will be a fairly major diplomatic incident between China and the United States. Already a diplomatic meeting between China and the United States has been postponed. China, for its part, continues to insist that this was a civilian balloon and is vowing consequences for shooting it down. I doubt that these consequences will be anything serious, but it is something to keep an eye on.