Monday, November 30, 2020

Iran claims that Israel assassinated their nuclear scientist via a remote control gun turret. Here's why I don't believe it...

 

The funeral for Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi. LA Times/Iranian Defense Ministry. 

As you may be aware, Iran is claiming that Israel assassinated their nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi with a remote control gun turret. Despite their initial reports that gunmen shot up and killed the Iranian scientist's convoy, also detonating a vehicle, the Iranians are now saying that the attack was done remotely. They claim that weapons were found on the scene that were of Israeli manufacture and that the weapons were controlled via satellite. 

I find this to be unlikely to say the least. Though I think a satellite controlled gun turret is certainly possible, the latency is going to be a huge issue. Most remote gun turrets are operated on the ground via a hardline so their is little to any delay between a command being issued and the weapon firing. 

It also seems needlessly complicated. You would need boots on the ground to actually deploy the weapon so at that point it just makes more sense to have that guy shoot instead of dealing with the trouble caused by satellites. Or just use a car bomb or any of a hundred easier ways to ambush a convoy. Just getting this device to Iran seems like a major issue compared to bringing a couple of guys with guns and explosives. 

Furthermore I would say that you sure as hell wouldn't leave that kind of technology behind. If such a weapon system exists you wouldn't leave it behind to fall into enemy hands like the Iranians are accusing the Israelis of. You would have a team there to extract it so it couldn't be reverse engineered, either to replicate it or develop countermeasures to it. 

Finally, I have to say that the Iranians are flip flopping here. They had a guy on state television saying that he saw guys with guns shoot up the convoy, plus it wouldn't make any sense for there to be a vehicle explosion as well. I doubt the scientist guards had the heavy weapons or explosives on them to destroy a car. I think that the original story is a lot more believable. 

Could I be wrong? Of course! I don't think there is anything technically unrealistic about using a weapon system this way, it just seems very unlikely and extremely over complicated. If there was any remote gunfire at all, I think it would have been local in nature, either a wireless internet connection or a hard line, not a satellite link. 

So why would the Iranians lie about this? I am not sure and if there is anything about this story that gives me pause it is this. Why would they admit to the Israeli's having new technology that allowed them to pull off an almost perfect assassination? It might have to do with trying to prove that the Israelis did this but why bother? Everyone already suspects them. It just doesn't make much sense to me... 

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