Tensions between Iran and Ukraine could escalate after Ukraine struck an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea.

 

Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi. New York Times/AP.

Tensions between Iran and Ukraine have increased after Ukraine struck an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea. New York Times. Ukraine drones attacked an Iranian freighter and killed a civilian sailor. Iran had vowed to retaliate and considered a strike on an Ukrainian port on the Black Sea. The attack would be a single missile and would be considered symbolic in nature. However, the foreign ministers of both Ukraine and Iran talked and deescalated the situation. Iran and Russia are allies and the Caspian Sea has become a critical route for Iran, and any involvement with Ukraine could complicate both wars. 

My Comment:

For now, it seems that cooler heads are prevailing. From what I understand, the phone call between Iran and Ukraine was promising, and it does seem like Iran has backed down from any retaliation. The hope is that this will be the end of it, and Iran's protests over the strike on their ship will remain diplomatic in nature. 

And I don't really think that any of the parties in either conflict would benefit from an actual war between Iran and Ukraine. Seriously, it poses problems for basically every party to both wars. Iran has barely enough weapons to strike targets at this point, most of their launchers are destroyed and they only have a few weapons left. They also would risk having their last major sea route for trade with Russia cut off entirely, due to Ukrainian strikes. 

Ukraine? It has huge manpower problems of their own and they too are just barely able to keep up pressure on Russia. Having Iran join the war on Russia's side would further stretch their resources and they would have difficulty with their air defenses, which have already largely been depleted. 

Russia? They absolutely don't want their sea route with Iran closed. It's absolutely an important corridor for them, and though they are no longer reliant on Iran for their Shahed drones, having Ukraine possibly closing the sea route would be bad for them. 

And America? They want both wars to end. That gets a lot harder to do if both wars are connected. Indeed, the Iran War almost ended once already and it could happen easily again, but not if Ukraine is party to the war. And given that I don't consider the leadership of Iran or Ukraine to be rational actors, diplomacy might be extremely hard to pull off. 

Given the incentives here, I would expect that diplomacy will prevail. I do fear that the leadership of Iran and Ukraine are both, quite frankly, insane, for continuing wars that they lost a long time ago. But even they have to have some rational actors that would consult against this, right? 

So what would a war between Iran and Ukraine look like? I am guessing it would largely be similar to what the Iran war has devolved in, only without the involvement of US Airpower. Both sides have long range missiles and drones and I can see both sides using them to strike targets. Iran would likely target Ukranian ports while Ukraine would likely continue to target Iranian ships in the Caspian Sea. 

There's a small chance that Iran could deploy ground troops to the front lines in Ukraine, but that seems unlikely. Logistically it would be a nightmare because there would be no likely ground route to transport troops and supplies from Iran to Russia, not to mention troop ships would be vulnerable in the Caspian Sea. Plus, Iranian troops are not a good match for the grinding attritional warfare against Ukraine. 

Regardless, I think that even with the irrational leadership of Ukraine and Iran, that there won't be a real conflict between them. Nobody really benefits and both sides would have serious consequences for doing so. There is still some chance of it happening, but I am glad that there is diplomacy happening. 

Destructive tornado hits Northeast Wisconsin, causing major damage to Appleton, Menasha and Neenah.

 

A destroyed gas station in Menasha Wisconsin. ABC News/AP.

A destructive tornado has hit Northeast Wisconsin, causing major damage to Appleton, Menasha and Neenah. ABC News. The tornado struck southern Appleton before moving through eastern Menasha and Neenah before moving over Lake Winnebago. Many businesses and homes were damaged or destroyed and several injuries were reported. 

Menasha was especially hard hit and was declared a disaster area, along with Neenah and Appleton. WBAY. Menasha was forced to close all vehicle traffic to the city and issued a curfew. Boil warnings for water are in effect and shelters have been set up for victims of the storm. 

The Post Crescent has a gallery showing the damage in the area. 

My Comment:

I don't usual cover local stories but this is one that affected me. I live in Northeast Wisconsin and grew up in he area affected in this storm and I have many friends and family members that were affected by this tornado. Indeed, I've been to that gas station that's destroyed in the picture attached to this post, I've bought minnows there for fishing. Thankfully, everyone I know appears to be safe and sound, but this was still a devastating disaster. 

It's unclear how bad of a tornado this was. It was either an F-2 or an F-3 on the Fujita scale. I am guessing it was an F-3 due to the huge amount of damage done to houses and businesses, though probably not through the whole storm. 

As bad as this tornado was, it could have been worse. The tornado's track moved east once it hit Lake Winnebago, which probably spared lakeshore Neenah from worse damage than it had. The tornado stayed out on the lake and turned into a waterspout, thus sparing the east side of Neenah from damage, aside from Doty Island. 

Tornados aren't uncommon here in the Northeast Wisconsin, but they usually aren't on this scale. The worst tornado I have ever seen was many years ago, also in Neenah, and that was only an F-0, barely a tornado at all. That one was weak, but it was strong enough to rip tiles off of the roof of the house I was renting back then, along with utterly destroying my screen door. And that was an F-0! This storm was a lot bigger and it did a lot of damage. We aren't surprised by tornados here, but one this damaging is extremely rare, and not something I have seen in my lifetime.

I also don't recall a natural disaster in our region where travel was suspended like it is in Menasha. Even during previous tornados or our occasional blizzards in the winter, there is usually some form of travel allowed. But right now there isn't a way to get to Menasha. It's not like there is a good way to get there right now anyways, for me at least, because as of this writing I believe Highway 441 is still closed, due to disabled and damage vehicles clogging up the roadway as well as fuel spills. 

I am thankful that it appears nobody was killed in this disaster. This storm happened around noon, and most people weren't home, which may have saved some lives. Still, folks know what to do when storms hit here so that might have helped things. I am extremely thankful that none of my friends and family were hurt in this disaster. 

Suspect in Berlin pride car ramming attack shot by police after brief escape.

 

A memorial in Berlin after the attack. NPR/AP.

A suspect in the Berlin Pride car ramming attack has been shot and killed by police after initially escaping them. NPR. A 21 year old man named Abdul Ballout was shot as he charged at police with a bladed weapon. Ballout was the main suspect of an attack on a Pride festival's closing party, killing one person and wounding at least 29 people. The attacker rammed a van into the crowd and then got out of his vehicle and slashed people with his machete. The attack was an example of Islamic terrorism. Ballout was born in Germany but had Lebanese heritage.

My Comment:

Ballout was a classic example of a long term terrorist that was somehow out on the streets despite a long criminal and terrorist history. He was posting pro-ISIS content on social media and had traveled to Lebanon in a failed attempt to join ISIS directly. He was imprisoned briefly in Lebanon but was released and came back to Germany where he was arrested and convicted, again, on terrorism charges. He was released on a suspended sentence and was supposed to be attending a deradicalization programs but was not. 

In short, he is the kind of guy that should have been, at best, in prison for a very long time. Instead he was out on the streets and was able to attack a pride parade with the predictable result of a bunch of people getting hurt and one person getting killed. Had either Germany or Lebanon had the realization that a guy that tried to join ISIS in 2025 is not someone that should be free because this is the obvious result. 

So why was he free? I am guessing Lebanon didn't want to keep him for pretty obvious reasons. He wasn't a citizen and it was a lot easier for them to send him back to Germany. But the Germans? They were just being weak on crime and weak on terrorism. Ballout made some comments about giving up terrorism. But obviously, he was lying. 

Having this attack happen at a Pride festival is also telling. Obviously, the motivation is that in Islam, homosexuality and other LGBT behavior and beliefs, are haram, forbidden for good Muslims. This isn't a fringe thing, it's a core belief of Islam. So it's no surprise that Germany is having problems with their LGBT community coming under attack from radical Muslims. 

The police response here was a bit puzzling. The suspect was able to escape after the attack and was on the run for hours. He was shot and killed after being at large for almost a day. You would have thought he would have been caught on scene, but he was not. 

There does seem to be some mitigating factors for the police response though. This attack occurred outside of the festival and was targeting people who had left. The festival itself had good security, but the attacker was unfortunately smart enough to attack outside of those defenses. It also occurred near a large park and the suspect was able to get into after he was done with his attack. In short, it wasn't quite as bad as it seemed. 

Still, it's not surprising that this attack occurred. Even if you ignore the fact that this guy was on Germany's radar and shouldn't have been on the streets in the first place, it does show that the problem with many of these immigrants is their kids. Instead of assimilating to German culture, Ballout stuck with his Islamic beliefs and was radicalized. This is a known phenomenon and it's fairly common for 2nd generation immigrants. 

Military action against al-Qaeda terrorists in Mali is being considered by President Trump

 

Mali. News Nation.

Military action against al-Qaeda aligned terrorists in Mali is being considered by the White House. News Nation. A Washington Post report said that the debate was happening because Mali's JNIM terror group has been having success on the battlefield and could potentially overthrow the government. Russia's Africa Corps, an official formation that folded in former Wagner Group mercenaries into the Russian military, has failed to defeat the terrorists since a coup replaced the pro-American government in 2022. The presence of Russian troops in Mali would complicate things and would likely require deconfliction efforts. JNIM has allied with a local independence group, the FLA, and have had major successes on the battlefield, including killing the Defense Minster. 

My Comment:

I don't know how real these reports are. There is a very strong argument to intervene in Mali. The last thing we need is a new Syria or Afghanistan where al-Qaeda can gather a tax base to fund terror attacks globally. That has absolutely not worked out well in the past, to say the least and not intervening against groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS caused an untold amount of misery. 

But there should be a debate, and it sounds like there is one internally. There is the idea that our forces are already stretched thin due to other military actions this year, most notably Venezuela and Iran. Iran especially has drained our weapons stockpiles and exhausted our troops. Launching another military campaign, even a minor one, might not be the best idea. 

Politically it has risks as well. Folks are pretty tired of the Iran War and the media is already framing this as a new conflict, something that the dove wing of his party is not going to be too impressed with. Pre midterms, joining this conflict will not play that well, even if doing so is necessary from a military sense. 

I do think we would be extremely effective though. Mali's major problem is a lack of intelligence and air support. Most of Russia's forces are deployed in Ukraine, obviously, and the Africa Corps is stretched thin in that area. They have some drones and a few helicopters and SU-24 Fencer attack planes but not what they need to be effective, and Mali has even less in terms of these weapon systems. My first instinct would be that we should end the Ukraine War so Russia could better provide their troops in Mali with the support they need, but that's politically impossible. 

It's unclear how open Mali and Russia would be to working together. Both would obviously benefit from the destruction that the US Military could rain down on these terrorists but Mali's government was pretty anti-America (and anti-French, who used to be handling these terrorists). And, obviously, relations between Russia and the United States remains tragically frosty. 

There are signs that Mali is at least willing to entertain the idea of allowing air strikes. There have been some examples of intelligence sharing and high level diplomatic meetings. It could be that Mali might be able to work with the United States. 

However, I should note that any participation of the United States in Mali is not a done deal. There is a debate happening and they are in the very early stages. There's arguments being made for and against it, and President Trump and his team might very well conclude that it's not worth it. It's also possible that Mali and Russia will be able to reverse the battlefield problems they are facing without US help. Right now, nothing is for certain, and we will have to wait and see.

Democrat Governor of New Jersey says 6600 non-citizens were registered to vote due to an "error".

 

New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill. Fox News/Getty.

The Democrat Governor of New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill, said that 6600 non-citizens were registered to vote in the state due to an "error". Fox News. In New Jeresey, people who use the DMV are registered to vote. However, 6600 people were registered despite being non-citizens and indicating so on their DMV registration due to a "software error". Around 400 people in this group then voted illegally. The registrations happened before Sherrill took the office between June of 2023 and June of 2024. Republican investigations into the state had shown the issue but this is the first time the Democrat controlled government admitted it. The illegally registered voters are now being removed from the voter rolls. 

My Comment:

I am skeptical that this is the full extent of this problem and that this was a mistake. It's very possible far more people were registered and voted than the Democrat controlled State of New Jersey is willing to admit. 

However, it's extremely hard to prove either way. There hasn't been an external audit to confirm or disprove any allegations of a wider scandal. I am guessing that will be coming as the Feds have already said they are going to look into it. 

And I also don't know if this really was a glitch. It wouldn't be very hard to make the software do this automatically and it could be passed as a bug. I am no expert on this technology but I would believe it's very possible. However, short of someone confessing that they did so, I don't know how you would ever prove this without some serious forensic investigation, and even then, it would be difficult. 

New Jersey obviously has a motive to lie about what happened here. If only 400 people voted illegally due to this issue, then it probably wasn't enough to change the outcome of any elections. But if there were a lot more than it starts to call into question some of these elections.

New Jersey is a blue state, but it's one that has been trending red and though the margins aren't so close, it's very possible that some of the more recent elections, even the one that put Sherrill into power, come into question. It's a huge problem and casts doubt into all recent elections in New Jersey. It also calls into question elections in the future even if all 6600 are purged from the voter rolls. Who is to say there aren't more of them?

Democrats have to be furious about this though. They couldn't keep this quiet and it gives ammo for President Trump and his accusations of voter fraud. At this point his accusations are getting harder and harder to deny. Even if many of the claims end up being false, enough are being proven true that it's obvious that our elections need major reform.