The Black Sea has become the world's most dangerous due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

 

A Russian tanker with anti-drone netting. Financial Times.

The Black Sea has become the world's most dangerous due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Financial Times. More sailors have died in the Black Sea than any other waterway in the world this year, despite the conflict against Iran. The Black Sea is a critical route for grain from Ukraine and oil from Russia. Attacks from both Russia and Ukraine have hit 570 shops and killed at least 40 sailors, compared to only 24 in the Strait of Hormuz, though given that both Russia and Ukraine have motivations to downplay the violence, the true toll is unknown. The Black Sea has been dangerous at all stages of the war, but the current level of violence increased after Ukraine began targeting gas freighters delivering to Crimea, but Russia responded and expanded the attacks dramatically, to the point where 90% of strikes in the past 45 days were from Russia. Both sides have resorted to using other ports to try and avoid the chaos in the Black Sea. As for the shippers, they are having trouble insuring the ships and finding crew to man them. 

My Comment:

The Battle for the Black Sea has been an under-covered aspect of the Russia-Ukraine war. To be fair, the war has gone through three phases. The first phase, Ukraine won a major victory, largely pushing Russia's Navy out of the conflict, especially after their flagship Cruiser Moskva was destroyed. The second phase was noted by the brokered grain deal that allowed Ukraine to ship without too much hassle. But now we are in the third phase, which has now turned into a buzzsaw. 

I do think that this is not a great development for Ukraine. And they only have themselves to blame. This is another consequence of their rather misguided war on Russia's energy production. Though Ukraine has done damage, Russia's response has been brutal. And largely shutting down shipping is one of the bigger effects. 

Ukraine already has cashflow problems. They need to be able to ship out their exports if they are to have any income at all. But right now their choices are mostly to ship it overland or try to get them out on the Danube River, which is also under heavy attack. If this keeps up, things will get very interesting next year. 

To be fair, it's not like this is good for Russia either. They need to ship out oil and gas and the Black Sea is a good route to do so. Yes, they have a lot of other ports to do so and can ship over land as well, but neither is a good solution. The difference is that Russia is better equipped to absorb the losses. 

Either way, this is not a good development for the rest of the world. Though the Iran War and the Houthi conflict in Yemen have had a larger effect on gas prices, the Black Sea conflict is absolutely contributing to the high prices. It's why I am hoping that the peace talks actually happen and we can end this war. 

Until that happens I do expect this to get worse before it gets better. The article mentioned that both sides have gone from targeting the engines to targeting the bridge, which will absolutely lead to more deaths. I am guessing that the problems they are facing finding crew willing to face this are just going to get worse... 

Irregularities abound in 2nd round of Brazil election, which Lula claims to have won.

 

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva. New York Post/Getty. 

President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva has been declared the winner of the Brazil election. New York Post. The results are shocking given that Lula's opponent, Flavio Bolsonaro, had easily won the first round of the election by 2.2 million votes. The election will likely be contested due to irregularities caused by the Brazilian Supreme Court, which allowed polling places in districts likely to go to Lula to continue on for two hours after polls had closed on Bolsonaro districts. The Justice that ordered the stop,  Cristiano Zanin, was Lula's former lawyer. 

My Comment:

This is extraordinarily bad optics for Brazil and I wonder how they get out of this with any kind of credibility in their elections. These results, where Lula won by 4 million votes three weeks after losing by 2.2 million beggars belief and I don't see any reason why such a swing could happen. It also did not follow what the polling was saying. 

It's hard to think of a more explicit scenario for a crooked election. Bolsonaro's districts ended the voting at 5:00pm like they were legally required to do. The Lula districts should have done the same thing, but somehow their machines weren't shut down and they were able to follow this court order. That meant Lula's supporters had two more hours to vote. 

Does that mean that Lula didn't win? It's unclear. It's not impossible that Lula swung six million votes since the 1st round. Keep in mind, Lula and Bolsonaro were not the only candidates in the first round and some people left the vote blank. It's possible that Lula was able to consolidate those votes. Is it likely? I don't know. I don't see any reason for such a switch, even if it is possible. And, given that Brazil's elections are fully electronic and don't leave a paper trail, it's hard to detect fraud even if it is there. 

But it hardly matters what the results are when there is the appearance of fraud. The results could be 100% accurate but it doesn't matter when a Justice so obviously tips the scales of his preferred candidate. Everything else could be on the up and up, the polling could be wrong, Lula could have convinced people to vote for him and the margins may have been enough that keeping the polls open for two more hours didn't change anything, and it doesn't matter because how can Brazilians trust elections now?

It's also unlikely that anything will happen to overturn these results. Bolsonaro is contesting these results, but it's unlikely that a new election will happen regardless. I also don't see some kind of civil war breaking up, even though it appears to be justifiable. Instead, it seems likely that Lula will remain President, probably for life. If there is any good news here, it's that Lula is old enough that he's unlikely to get another term after this one. 

Fake polling has affected the 2026 midterms.

 

Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow says she dropped out of the Senate race due to a fake poll. Politico/AP.

A polling outfit has admitted that its polls were faked, throwing doubt into the 2026 midterms. Politico. Wedgewood Polls said that they were doing an "experimental project" to show that an "entirely fabricated" polling firm could sway public opinion. There is evidence that these polls had an effect, as they were cited by outlets like New York Times and Politico. Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow claimed on X that the fake polls directly affected the Senate race in the state. After the poll showed she was down to single digit support, funding dried up, and Mallory said the poll "killed us". It is unclear what Wedgewood was attempting to accomplish. 

Just before this poll hit, the Mitchell poll that also showed me in single digits hit. That poll was bullshit - and our team proved it. It was an open SurveyMonkey link that people were able to send around to friends and take multiple times. We expended a lot of capital (and took a serious risk) - calling it out as bullshit. MIRS ultimately declined to publish it because of shoddy methodology. But then this one hit immediately after. It was a one-two punch. Then all of the sudden it was a pattern - and people believed it had to be true. It killed us. These were some of the absolute worst days on the campaign. Especially for my team. There are no words to explain the morale blow, and nothing I could do or say to my team to fix it. Just an excruciating, nauseating blow. By that point, we took a risk and we spend our money. We put our ads up. They were working. But the damage was done. And I was drowned out by outside spending and the narrative that we had completely collapsed.

— Mallory McMorrow (@MalloryMcMorrow) October 21, 2026

My Comment:

The 2026 election remains one of the most difficult to predict and the fake polling is a major reason why. And this isn't even the first time this happened this cycle! There was another fake outlet that was propping up Francesca Hong in Wisconsin, earlier in the year. Given that polls are already unreliable and have underestimated Republicans dramatically in previous years, I wouldn't be surprised if the "blue wave" ends up a blue trickle at best and a GOP trifecta at worst. 

Regardless though, this fake polling is obvious really bad. If McMorrow is right and her funding dried up due to bad polling that had little basis in reality, that's not a good thing. She might have lost anyways, but she didn't get a fair shot. I don't have a dog in that race, I generally consider all Democrat candidates to be equally bad, but it's bad for the Republic if fake polls are deciding who gets elected and not the voters themselves. 

There is a lot of speculation as to why these polling firms have been faking their data like this. It's not an issue of them being lazy, they are doing this on purpose. Democrats are saying this could be some kind of pied piper strategy to boost progressive candidates which will be easier to beat in November. I don't think Republicans are that stupid or that smart.

My guess is that both cases were out and out scams. It wasn't a social experiment, it was an effort to rig the prediction markets. Prediction markets are legalized gambling and bets can be placed on anything. My guess is that these polls were trying to shape the outcome of races so they could place bets on the outcome and make easy money. Indeed, they wouldn't even have to vote on the outcomes, they could just vote on the polling average, while their own polls could skew them. It's a pretty good scam and I wouldn't be surprised if that is what this is about. 

It's another reason why I am getting more and more opposed to online gambling and prediction markets. Letting folks bet on everything from their living room is bad enough, but with these prediction markets out there, there is now an incentive to fudge reality until you get the outcome you want. It's not just sports, where there are now constant rumors of play being disrupted, but our very elections. 

I am not one to call for regulations, but honestly, these fake polling firms are pretty much begging for them. They are effecting the outcomes of elections and that's not acceptable. Regardless of the motivations, putting out fake polls is a bad thing. And while they are regulating things, they should regulate prediction markets as well, or, better yet, ban them entirely. 

President Putin has agreed to resume three way talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States to attempt to end the war.

 

President Vladimir Putin (right) with US Envoy Steven Witkoff. Reuters. 

President Putin of Russia has agreed to three way talks including Ukraine and the United States. Reuters. Putin released Stephan Hubbard, an American citizen held in Russia, as a gesture of good will. The Kremlin said the talks could occur next month in Abu Dhabi, which has hosted previous talks this year. Those talks were not productive and did not end the war. Putin also offered help to try and end the war in Iran and offered up another meeting between himself, President Trump and President Xi Jianping of China. It is unclear if Putin or Zelensky are willing to compromise on their various war goals and actually end the war. 

My Comment:

The good news is that at least Putin and Zelensky appear willing to talk. That hasn't been the case for most of the year, after the previous rounds of talks fell apart. Their positions were too far apart and neither side was willing to give up anything to end the conflict. 

Has anything really changed since then? Not really. The battlefield largely remains a stalemate. Russia has made gains, but Ukraine has retaken some territory as well. Both sides have taken major damage but neither side appears to be near an actual collapse which would actually incentivize a deal. Ukraine is closer than Russia, they have lost most of their air defenses, have major energy concerns, and have a major recruitment problem. But both sides could continue the war for at least another year.

What could happen is an energy ceasefire. President Trump tried to ram through one earlier this month, which both sides immediately violated, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. Russia would obviously benefit from their oil refineries being damaged and Ukraine would benefit from keeping whatever energy infrastructure they have left running. It would be a low cost way to make things better for each side. 

But for a greater peace deal? I just don't see it. Putin still hasn't achieved his goals for the Special Military Operation. At the very least, I would expect him to demand the remaining territory he has demanded that he has not yet captured. And I don't see him agreeing to any security agreement for Ukraine.

Zelensky, for his part, has backed down a bit from his demands. He has at least said that he would accept freezing the war where the lines are now, but hasn't gone beyond that. That's better than his previous demands where he not only wanted Russia to withdraw from the territory they conquered, but to give back Crimea as well! The big demand though is a security agreement that would have article 5 triggers, which Putin would never accept, and has not agreed to give up claims to the territory they lost. 

Regardless, ending the war is going to be a long process and the more both sides talk the better it is. I am not expecting an end to the war this year, but it's very possible that it could end next year. A negotiated settlement is the most likely outcome, though I haven't ruled out a collapse of Ukraine's military. It will be a cold winter after all, and much of Ukraine's energy systems have been destroyed. 

Did Vivek Ramaswamy just torpedo his chances to win Ohio's governor's race?

 

Amy Acton in Ohio. AP.

Vivek Ramaswamy (R) released an extremely controversial advertisement targeting his opponent Amy Acton (D) in a hotly contested Governor's race in Ohio. AP. The advertisement featured Acton's birth mother, Donna Arthur, who claimed that Acton lied about claims of living in poverty as a child. However, Acton was estranged from her mother after her Stepfather was arrested and indicted for sexually abusing her as a 12 year old child. Arthur stood by the stepfather, Cledith Arthur, and fled with him after he jumped bail and lived as a fugitive from justice until his death in 2004. Acton's father won custody and she has been estranged with her mother since then. Ramaswamy's campaign eventually took credit for the advertisement and will broadcast it as well. The ad has been condemned by figures on both the left and right. 

My Comment:

This is one of the biggest own goals I have seen in a political race in recent history. It's right up there with Biden's debate performance or Michael Dukakis riding that tank. I just have no idea what Ramaswamy is thinking here and why he thinks this is going to somehow help his campaign. Indeed, at this point, if I lived in Ohio I would not vote for him. I wouldn't vote for Acton either, but I just don't think that someone with political instincts this bad should be governor. 

Though Arthur didn't directly say that Acton lied about her abuse, the implication was there. And I have little doubt that she was abused. To be fair, the case was never tried in court, but the fact that Cledith Arthur fled the state instead of facing charged, living as a fugitive until he died, is a strong argument that it happened. And the case was strong enough that an indictment happened. Plus, Acton's brother, corroborated her story. It's a much stronger case than, for example, the Cornel 7 incident. I would say that the allegations are more likely than not to be true, and that's a hell of a thing to risk a campaign on! 

And even if the allegations were false, so what? It's ancient history at this point and digging it up to score some political points is not going to play well. It's such a personal issue that wasn't really a factor in anything to begin with, that it risks giving Acton sympathy that she wouldn't otherwise deserve. Yeah, you might get some points if you could absolutely prove that she is a liar, but that didn't happen here! But even if it had, it's still incredibly ugly. 

But the allegations seem true, so that makes this look even worse! Donna Arthur does not strike me as someone that should be trusted and the allegations are, at the very least, credible. So this just looks like an extremely low move for a campaign that looks desperate. It's going to turn a lot of people off and I would not be surprised if Acton wins because of it. 

My objection here is that he's platforming someone who may have done something worse than lying about a sexual assault. Donna Arthur, by all appearances, let her husband molest her daughter and instead of protecting her, she stood by him. If that's what happened, she's an evil person. And, by my accounting it seems more likely than not that's exactly what happened! And Ramaswamy is using that to try and win an election. 

I'm generally bullish on the GOP in 2026, at least compared to the polls, but the Ohio Governor's race was always primed for an upset due to Ramaswamy. Keep in mind, Ramaswamy had an uphill battle, largely because he picked a fight with MAGA over immigration. His famous crashout on X turned off a lot of folks that might otherwise support him. Plus, he is persona non grata among the Groypers for his race alone. I didn't like the guy after his New Year's crashout on X and I really wish he hadn't even run in the first place.

Candidate quality was always the problem in this race. Ramaswamy should have never won but the only other guy in the race was Casey Putsch, who famously also had a massive crashout on X. I actually had Putsch respond to me directly when I criticized both men for not being credible candidates, and honestly, knowing what I know now, I think I should have boosted him instead. Putsch was a bad candidate with bad political instincts, and I totally disagreed with him on subjects like Israel and the Epstein files, but I don't think he would have done this. Indeed, he claims he would not and went so far to endorse Acton. He would have been a terrible governor and would have likely lost to Acton too, but at least he wouldn't have done this. 

I do think this is probably the end of Vivek Ramaswamy's political career. I don't see this advertisement helping him at all, and it will indeed hurt his chances. Again, it sure looks like he was pulling an extremely low political stunt and gives Acton ammo for being a better person than he is. I don't see how he recovers from this (unless the stunt somehow works) and any talk of him being a presidential candidate in 2028 are DOA.

My real concern is that Ramaswamy is so toxic that he could drag other Republicans down with him. Ohio has a competitive Senate race as well, and this could turn enough voters off that Jon Husted could be dragged down with him. That was always an objection I had to Ramaswamy, but it could even extend beyond Ohio. If I was the Democrats I'd run ads nationally about what Ramaswamy did here, and my guess is they might.