President Zelensky has sent a letter to President Putin asking for face to face negotiations to end the Ukraine War.

 

Ukrainian President Zelensky. BBC/EPA.

President Zelensky has sent a letter to President Putin asking for a face to face negotiation to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. BBC. Zelensky asked for a full ceasefire while the issue was being negotiated, a condition that Putin has repeatedly rejected. Despite asking for a ceasefire and an end to the war, the letter was disrespectful and defiant, and even mocked Putin's age. However, the more notable issue is that Zelensky acknowledged that the United States attention was on Iran, not the Ukraine war. For his part President Trump agreed that a face to face meeting would be helpful. 

My Comment:

It appears that Zelensky is feeling confident, probably because it's late spring and well past winter. Putin's war on Ukraine's energy was largely successful but it's a lot less relevant in spring and summer in Ukraine for what should be obvious reasons. Nobody is at risk of freezing to death in Ukraine in June. 

And it's not like there has been much movement in the war. The front lines are mostly static and neither side seems to be engaged on any major offensives. Ukraine has gotten more aggressive with drone strikes, just today they appear to have damaged or destroyed the Russian Corvette RFS Boiky in drydock in St. Petersburg. Those strikes may get headlines but they have not eroded Russia's ability to make war. 

Keep in mind that Russia's goal here is attritional warfare, they understand they have more manpower, weapons and supplies than Ukraine ever will and they just need to continue to keep up the pressure and Ukraine will eventually collapse. The only problem is that this strategy takes a long time.

It also seems that Ukraine has adapted as well. They haven't launched a major offensive in awhile and I don't think we will see any more major offensives from Ukraine unless something drastic happens. I think they finally figured out that throwing huge numbers of troops into Russian defenses was a dumb idea. Either that or their non-drone operator troop quality has dropped to the point where they can't actually do anything. 

Regardless, the timing of this is dumb. The time for Ukraine to try and cut a deal was back when they had a large amount of Russian territory during the Kursk offensive. But they didn't really try to end the war then, when they obviously could have used that territory to trade for their own. Now they control very little if any Russian territory so they have nothing to trade. 

It's true that Trump is obviously distracted by Iran but I think he mostly washed his of Ukraine regardless. I do think he wants to end the war but I also don't think he takes responsibility for the conflict. He, correctly, believes this was Joe Biden's war and it's going to be up to Ukraine and Russia to end the war. 

The problem I see is that I don't see any evidence of either side backing down. Russia won't give up all of the territory they have conquered and that's not going to change. At the very least, they will keep Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk and Ukraine has no realistic way to take that territory back. But Ukraine won't drop demands to be given back all of this territory and more, even Crimea, which had been taken by Russia before the war. 

Until one side loosens their demands I can't see this war ending. Even worse, I don't think anything at all will come from this letter. Zelensky's bad attitude isn't helping either. My guess is that nothing will come from this letter and that the war will continue. 

President Trump confirms he had a spat with Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel.

 

President Trump and Prime Minster Netanyahu. Reuters.

President Trump has confirmed that he had a spat with Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel over his attacks on Lebanon. Reuters. Trump confirmed an Axios report where he was quoted as calling the Prime Minster "crazy". Trump also was quoted as saying "You're fucking crazy. You'd be in prison if it ⁠weren't for me. I'm saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this." and "At some point, I said, ​Bibi, we got to stop this. We got to stop it." referring to the conflict with Lebanon. Trump said he wasn't angry at Netanyahu but was "perturbed" that he kept attacking Lebanon. Netanyahu said that the incident was a "tactical disagreement" and that President Trump was still the "greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House". However, the attacks on Lebanon have been a major stumbling block in the peace process with Iran. 

My Comment:

Anti-Israel critics and people that dislike President Trump generally mischaracterize Trump's relation with Israel. They always say that Trump is taking orders from Tel Aviv and that he's not actually in control of America's foreign policy. 

In reality, Israel is the junior partner in this relationship and this little spat is pretty solid proof of that. Trump is more than willing to stand up to Netanyahu when he gets out of line, in Trump's view. Trump and Netanyahu are allies but that does not mean that Trump always does what Netanyahu wants, far from it. 

I also think that Trump was pretty much right about what he said too. Netanyahu has been very annoying lately and he has been derailing the peace process with his attacks on Lebanon. And he is right that Netanyahu is very unpopular for this very reason. 

The problem is that the United States and Israel have different goals in the region. President Trump wants to end the conflicts in the Middle East and to make sure that Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon that could hit the United States. Israel wants their enemies completely destroyed. I don't think they want a deal where Iran gives up their weapons while keeping the same leadership, they want the Iranian religious government to fall, they want Hezbollah to be destroyed and they want to make sure they are in a strong position against Turkey if something happens there. These goals converge sometimes but I think we are seeing some distance between the two right now. 

I do think that Trump is going to win this fight. Indeed, Israel and Lebanon have already agreed to a conditional cease fire, though that will depend on what Hezbollah did. I think this shows that Trump does have a lot of influence over Israel and their actions, though. It's annoying that Israel may have derailed the peace deal for a few days but it is what it is. 

Finally, I think this will play well for domestic audiences. Trump has been under a lot of criticism for being so supportive of Israel when Israel may be at the lowest point of approval in modern US history. Standing up to Netanyahu is going to play well to Trump's critics on the right that dislike Israel. Those folks aren't critical for the midterms, but it would be nice to get a few of them back on board. 

As for the Iran conflict itself, I haven't been covering it much, mostly because nothing much is happening. We seem to be stuck in a pattern where a deal seem close, but then Israel or the IRGC does something to derail it. Hopefully that pattern will finally break soon an we will see an end to this conflict. 

Outrage in the UK over the Henry Nowak case, a murder victim that police let bleed out after his murderer falsely accused him of racism.

 

Police handout of the victim, Henry Nowak. New York Post. 

Outrage has erupted in the United Kingdom over the Henry Nowak case, where an 18 year old man was stabbed but was arrested by police because the murderer called him racist. New York Post. Nowak, an 18 year old college student, was stabbed by 21 year old Vickrum Digwa, an Indian Sikh man in an unprovoked attack. When police responded to the attack, they believed the attacker over the victim and handcuffed Nowak and read him his rights as he was bleeding to death. Nowak said he had been stabbed and that "I can't breath" while one of the arresting officers said "I don't think you have mate". 

Digwa was convicted for the murder and was sentenced to 21 years, but the bodycam footage of the attack wasn't released until yesterday. The case has exploded racial tensions in the UK as many people felt that the attack was compounded by racism by the police against white people and in favor of South Asian immigrants. Protesters could be heard saying "I can't breath" and unrest has erupted in the UK. The incident is putting pressure on already unpopular Prim Minster Kier Starmer, who protesters have named "Two Tier Kier" for the perception that South Asians are treated better than Whites. 

My Comment:

I have seen the video of Nowak's death and it was pretty baffling. The officers were handcuffing him and weren't actually checking to see how he was until after he was actually dead (a female officer said his eyes were no longer moving). I'm not a police officer but you would think that they would have done a quick check for wounds after he said he had been stabbed and couldn't breath. To be fair, I wasn't able to see any obvious wounds in the video, but it was obvious he was in very deep distress and it seemed obvious he was dying. 

The case has some obvious parallels to the George Floyd case. In that case officers didn't believe a suspect when he said he couldn't breath either and in both cases the arrested person died. But I find this case a lot more outraging than the George Floyd case as the police were at least following policy and I didn't think there was even a hint of racism from the officers there. 

But in this case? It was obviously racism. There was no reason to believe Digwa's claims of racism or to doubt Nowak's claims of being stabbed. Instead, Digwa's claims were believed for no reason and Nowak's were very quickly dismissed. He would have died regardless, his injuries were far too severe, but he could have at least been treated and comforted in his death instead of being treated like a common criminal. You could maybe defend putting him in cuffs until things were figured out, but the fact that Digwa was not shows that he was being discriminated against. 

It's almost beyond parody. The UK police took the possibility of racism (totally false claims) more seriously than a man dying of multiple stab wounds to his chest. And it's a major cultural problem as DEI policies are standard in the UK. The police in this case were trained to see Nowak as a potential criminal and were primed to ignore the idea that Digwa may have been one. Digwa was also able to openly carry a knife, and not just the ceremonial one Sikh people are allowed to carry due to their religion, but an 8 inch blade in a sheath. White people in the UK aren't even allowed to carry pocket knives but this guy was able to carry an 8 inch blade openly? It's a great example of anarcho-tyranny, the actual criminal was able to run amok but the victim gets treated like a criminal.

It's the same ideology that let Pakistani grooming gangs to run amok for many years in the UK. Police in those cases viewed the young white female victims as scum, not people and weren't able to confront the gangs because they didn't want to be accused of racism against South Asians. I can't imagine that something similar wasn't going on here. 

The worst thing is that I don't think anything will change because of this. Yes people are protesting and people are extremely angry but wokeness is way more embedded in the UK. It's official government policy, down from the Prime Minster all the way to the cops on the street. That's not something that changes over night because of one case. I also don't expect anyone in the UK to have a spine. 

But I do think that this case should serve as an example for the rest of the world. This kind of outcome was very obviously possible in the United States and I wouldn't be surprised if something similar has  happened here. Wokeness has been broken here and is retreating but it still exists and this case should be a warning for folks to not let it ever come back. 

Finally, the elephant in the room is why Digwa and his family were in the UK in the first place. Like all crimes committed by immigrants, legal or otherwise, this was a preventable crime. World governments don't even pretend that immigration is good for people who are native to their countries and this is another example. 

Controversial Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Planter's campaign upended by infidelity scandal.

 

Graham Planter. Fox News/Getty.

Controversial Maine Senate candidate Graham Planter's campaign has been upended by an infidelity scandal. Fox News. Planter is trying to unseat Republican Susan Collins and is currently leading in the polls. But he has been hit with scandals since the start of his campaign, with controversies surrounding his Totenkopf "death's head" Nazi tattoo, a very controversial Reddit history and even mocking a purple heart recipient. However, the newest scandal reveals infidelity as he sent the texts months after he married his wife in 2024. The texts were sent on Kik, a messaging app that is often used for such things, but is also used to share illegal content. 

My Comment:

It's utterly absurd that Graham Planter is able to run for dogcatcher, let alone as a Senator. This latest scandal is just the last one, he's incredibly controversial. In a sane world, he would be replaced as a candidate, and that might just happen. Under Maine's laws he could be replaced even if he wins his senate primary as long as he pulls out before mid July.

It's also critical to point out that the sexting scandal happened on Kik. Kik is a messaging app that has very loose moderation and is most well known for being a haven for pedophiles. Not everyone who using the app is one, obviously, but it's a massive red flag for Planter and one that should be disqualifying alone. The platform has anonymous accounts, no age verification and does not save chats, so it's perfect for folks to try and meet up with underage users or trade illegal content with each other. Indeed, that's about the only thing notable about the app and it's shocking that a mainstream candidate has account there. 

It's not like his Reddit history is any better. Though Reddit has a better reputation than Kik, somehow, it also is a haven for predators. Though I don't think having a Reddit account is disqualifying (though it probably should be), his behavior on there was pretty reprehensible. He posted the kind of stuff an edgy Redditor would post, blaming rape victims, mocking purple heart veterans and general gross behavior. I guess I have some sympathy there, I am guessing if my internet history was dissected to the point Planter's was, people would find embarrassing stuff too. But the difference is I am not running for office and I would not do so for that very reason. 

His tattoo was even more unforgivable. The Totenkopf is about as explicit endorsement of Nazi Germany as you can get. It was used by the SS and units guilty of crimes against humanity, even the units that operated the death camps! And I have zero doubt that a military man like Planter didn't know that. I know the excuse is that he did it for military solidarity in his Marine Unit but even that is just being edgy for the sake of being edgy. Plus he did it in Croatia, where the only people that would do that tattoos would be legit Nazis because they have anti-Nazi laws there for obvious reasons. 

It is telling that the Democrats are finally starting to turn on him. Indeed, Cory Booker said that Planter has some questions to answer and I think that's the first domino to fall. It's very possible, given the websites he had accounts on, that something worse will come up, but even now I think the Democrats are going to raise the white flag and get rid of him. 

I also have to say that it's also crazy that of all the terrible things that Planter did, it was sending naughty texts to women who weren't his wife that may do him in. They were defending him when he had a Nazi tattoo, but the second he did something moderately mean to a woman, they dropped him like a hot cake. I'm not defending cheating on your wife, far from it, but being a Nazi, a Kik User, and, god forbid me for using this word, a Redditor, are all much worse. 

Either way, I am pretty bullish on Susan Collins is going to keep her seat in Maine. Yes, it's a blue state, but she's a pretty liberal Republican, a classic RINO, and I don't see why more moderate Democrats wouldn't vote for her over a guy that has so many problems. Colins was probably going to win regardless, she's survived bad polling many times in the past, but if Planter doesn't drop out, I think it's an easy bet to make that she will win. 

The US has the forces in place to attack Cuba. Will It?

 

The USS Nimitz. Politico/AP.

The United States has enough forces in place to attack Cuba. Politico. The armada assembled in the region includes the USS Nimitz, along with two Amphibious Assault Ships, the Iwo Jima and the Ft. Lauderdale, are in the region, though the two ships are due to be replaced by the USS Kearsarge. Several destroyers and cruisers are deployed in the region as well. Though no signs indicate strikes, there is a time limit due to long deployments for the Nimitz, which was scheduled to be decommissioned this year. The ships in place are enforcing a de facto blockade for Cuba, which is facing heavy diplomatic pressure and a major fuel crisis. 

My Comment:

I'm going to go on record that I don't think military action against Cuba is going to happen in the short term. Long term is a different question but for right now? It's not going to happen. 

Why? The most obvious reason is that the war with Iran is still smoldering. Every day we hear news about peace talks and a deal being imminent but until there is a peace deal signed, I can't see the United States starting another conflict with Cuba. There are hopeful signs that a deal actually is close, but until that happens, any conflict with Cuba is unlikely. 

Even if the war were to end today, and that's hopelessly optimistic, it would still take weeks or even months to move forces around to actually accomplish military strikes. The fact that the Iwo Jima and Ft. Lauderdale are being withdrawn seems to show that things are moving away from a strike, not close to it. I am guessing at least one more Amphibious Assault Ship would be needed for an attack like we saw with Venezuela. 

Of course, I do think that we do technically have enough sources to attack Cuba. Cuba is not anywhere near as powerful as Venezuela was but the forces arrayed against them are roughly the same size, if not bigger. Remember, Cuba is only 90 miles away from Florida and we have significant air assets stationed there. Whatever shortfall we have in Navy assets could be made up for with our Air Force.

With that being said, there is an argument that we are burning through too much with our military operations. Starting a third military operation after a major operation in Venezuela and the closest thing to a major war we have had in a long time in Iran. Our weapons stocks were low before that, thanks to the Biden Administration wasting our weapons on Ukraine, but they are even lower now. And that's not even considering the level of exhaustion that could be setting in with our Naval forces, there have been several very long deployments for some of our most powerful warships. 

Regardless though, we have very little reason to actually attack. Cuba is in an extremely difficult position right now, they are already being squeezed by this blockade. They have had a massive fuel crisis to the point where they are essentially out. There is a very real chance that the blockade and sanctions alone could collapse the regime. It's not a huge chance, but it exists. 

There are political risks as well. The appetite for another war isn't non-existent, the Cuban community absolutely wants one, but a lot of other people do not. Starting a new conflict after ending the one with Iran could do some damage to the Republicans in 2026. Trump says the midterms aren't a concern, but I am guessing that alone will rule out military action until next year.