2026 midterms post-mortem. The men aren't all right.

 

Screengrab from Falling Down. 

As you are certainly aware, the midterm elections happened yesterday and it was an actual blue wave. As I noted before the election, it's pretty rare for a party in power to not take major losses during the midterms, and this time the Republicans lost both the Senate and the House. 

Thousands of words have already been written about this and why it happened. The general conclusion, also backed by President Trump and Vice President Vance themselves is that this was due to the Iran War. It's hard to argue that is wrong, President Trump would not be the first GOP president to lose in the midterms due to an unpopular war of choice in the Middle East, the whole situation reminds me of George Bush. 

However, the war itself isn't really enough to explain why things got so bad for Republicans to the point where they lost even in deep red states like Iowa and Texas. More tuned in people know that it was the gas prices that the war caused rather than the war itself that did the damage. Though some felt the Iran conflict was a betrayal, Trump ran on a "no new wars" platform and went back on it, it was the fuel prices that absolutely did the damage. 

But again, that doesn't tell the whole story. Paying $1 a gallon more for gas isn't a great explanation for the level of anger for the Republicans we saw on Tuesday. The problem is that folks are not doing well in this economy, and it's young men, especially White men that are doing worst of all. 

Indeed, I understand this pretty well. I am, after all, a 43 year old man with a college degree working a job that didn't require one. I'm unmarried, have no kids and can't even afford a home, despite saving for it for years. A few weeks ago I was unhappy with something that happened at my job but I realized very quickly that I would just have to deal with it because I didn't think there is any chance of me getting a new job. 

And you know what? There are a lot of men younger than me that would kill for the level of success I have. I have a job, I don't really worry about money too much, I've actually kissed a girl or two. So many young men now just don't have any of those things and have no hope of getting those things. And, at least in my case, I can say that I had opportunities do get all the things I wanted, I just made mistakes and choices. Can young men say the same thing? 

Just like D Fens up there, for young men, you can do everything right now and still fail miserably. I have heard so many stories of young men sending out hundreds of resumes and never getting an interview, let alone a job. Hunting for a job now is just as humiliating at going on the dating apps, and has the same likelihood of success. In both cases, you are no longer competing with just the folks in you town for a job/girlfriend, you are doing it with basically everyone in the country, and now, frequently, everyone on earth. 

The two AI's, Artificial Intelligence and Actually Indians, are making this problem even worse. Both are eliminating the chances of young men getting a high paying job in the IT field and others. Indeed, tech workers are one of the worst groups for this given how many jobs have been eliminated or taken by H1B visas that what was a hot career for smart young men is now a deadly trap. 

 

https://t.co/crfNSktNcc

— Mediocre Chuch (@Mediocre_Chuch_) November 4, 2026

And young men, White men especially but not limited to them, are demonized basically everywhere. Men are the reason why everything bad happens, according to the media. They are blamed for women making bad decisions and can even be thrown in prison for it. #MeToo really did a number on young men, being blamed for the actions of a small minority of men, and having totally normal behavior demonized as practically rape. 

Indeed, this is a major reason why I think young men turned on the Republicans this year. Nowhere was the flip to the Democrats more dramatic than Zoomer men. Young men flipped more than any other group. And when you think about it it's very obvious why they did. 

The Republicans did not do much since taking power in 2025 to solve any of these issues. Deportations did help, but the numbers weren't big enough to affect anything other than the margins. Trump ended some of the discrimination against White males in colleges. And there were other small things, like ending fake CDL mills. 

But much worse than that, it seemed that nobody in the Trump Administration or Republican Party even realized a problem. When Trump was informed that almost all of the jobs created over the summer went to women and not men, Trump made a joke about how women liked him. He didn't seem to understand that the economy wasn't working for men.

Much worse were the folks like Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Ashely Hinson that were putting out ads and making statements saying that young men were lazy and were leeching off the government and playing video games in their parents basement. This kind of thing might have played well for baby boomers, but it infuriated young men, and even folks like me. It's little wonder that Hinson lost on Tuesday.

 

 

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson says young men playing video games in their parents’ basements should not be “mooching off the federal government.” Follow: @AFpost https://t.co/UqCWnB2MD9

— AF Post (@AFpost) November 3, 2026

It's also little wonder why young men turned on the GOP if that was the strategy. Instead of offering a vision that would improve the lives of young men, the party was instead was insulting the same voters. Trump himself got distracted with the Iran war and things only he really cared about, like renaming everything or the White House Ballroom. 

Of course it doesn't make a lot of sense for young men to punish the Republicans by voting for the Democrats. The Democrats also bear a lot of responsibility for how things are for young men. And I would say that the Democrats entire platform has been hating young men, White men especially. It's why I expect this won't be a permanent situation, just a midterms one-off, White men aren't going to stay with the "we hate White men" party. 

But I will say that in the past when large groups of young men can no longer get the things in life they want and need, like jobs and wives, things tend to get bad. In the past, the situation led to men either overthrowing their leadership or making war on their neighbors so they could take what they need. Such things are a lot less easy to do now, so an alternative must be found. 

And I think this Tuesday was that alternative. Young men know that the Democrats hate them, but is there really much of a difference between being hated and ignored? If the Republicans won't even attempt to listen to them on these economic issues, why even try? Young men sent a message to the GOP on Tuesday and that message was "fix things or we burn the whole country down." And that should have been obvious what was happening because so many folks were saying before the election, pretty explicitly. And it wasn't just accelerationists like Nicholas Fuentes saying it, it was normal young men that had given up hope on thing getting better. 

Was that message received? I don't know. I know that I personally heard the message loud and clear. I had discounted how angry young men were. I obviously thought that the economy didn't matter too much because the boomers were happy, and I think that's how the Republicans felt too. I dismissed the folks saying they were staying home or even voting for Democrats as malcontents, groypers and shills making perfect the enemy of good. But I was absolutely wrong.   

But for the Republicans? I don't know. Both Trump and Vance seem to understand that they screwed up in Iran but do they get it was the economic effects of the war and not the war itself? I am not sure. Once again though, I feel the loss of Charlie Kirk. Kirk had the apparently unique ability on the GOP side to actually listen to young people and translate that to President Trump. Is there someone in the current administration that can do the same?

This isn't the only reason the Republicans got beaten on Tuesday. There were other valid reasons that angered other parts of the 2024 coalition. The anti-war types were angry about the Iran war, the MAHA folks were angry that they didn't get much attention, the immigration folks were mad that more folks weren't deported and so on. And I could write an entire article about candidate quality, and indeed, I did write a whole article about how Vivek Ramaswamy was terrible. 

And it's absolutely not just young men that are suffering from this economy too. Yes, the stock market is doing well and inflation has been slowed, but unless you are a boomer with a large stock portfolio, who cares? I'm 43 and even I am feeling ignored on economic issues by the Republicans. Indeed, boomers were the only generation that broke for Republicans in this election, so it's clearly not just young men affected by a K-shaped economy that is being held up by AI. 

Clearly a lot needs to be cleaned up if the Republicans want to have a chance at the White House in 2028. There is the thought they could do nothing, as I have little doubt that the Democrats will screw everything up, as they always do. But it would be a lot better for the Republicans if they focus on the young men that have been abandoned by everyone. I think if Republicans figure out that young men are a key to winning elections, they will do so and if they don't, they will be stuck in the same pattern where they get wiped out by, and wipe out in turn, the Democratic party. 

 

Shocking last minute endorsement as Michigan Democrat Haley Stevens endorses Republican Mike Rodgers over Abdul el-Sayed

 

Michigan Representative Haley Stevens with GOP Senate candidate Mike Rodgers at a church in Detroit. CBS News/AP.

In a shocking last minute endorsement, Democratic Representative Haley Stevens has endorsed the GOP Senate candidate for Michigan, Mike Rodgers, over the Democrat's candidate, Abdul el-Sayed. CBS News. Stevens narrowly lost to Sayed in the primary race, and had previous endorsed him. The breaking point appears to be due to an independent ad made by Cenk Uygur, which blamed Israel for high grocery prices in the United States and was widely viewed as anti-Semitic. Stevens also citied Sayed's links to Uygur's notorious nephew, Hasan Piker, as a reason for her endorsement of Rodgers. The Democrats are apoplectic about the endorsement, with several staffers for Stevens quitting. 

I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today. https://t.co/pQgfSBuhOJ

— Haley Stevens (@HaleyforMI) November 1, 2026

My Comment:

This seems like an example of a person doing the right thing too late to matter. A lot of the people that may have been persuaded by this may have already voted, especially given how often Democrats vote early compared to Republicans. Some will still vote on election day and may actually change their votes because of Stevens making a stand here, but there are going to be people that regret their vote now that it's to late to change it. 

And I agree that she's right to do this. El-Sayed is almost certainly antisemitic. His entire campaign appears to be about Israel and it seems clear to me that he doesn't like Jews as a people. And his friends Cenk Uygur and Hasan Piker? There is zero doubt in my mind that both men hate Jews even outside of Israel. And, as the old saying goes, if you lay down with dogs, you end up with fleas. That's exactly what Sayed is doing by not denouncing both men. 

It comes at a time where the soul of the Democratic Party is up for grabs. The party has to decide if they want to be the old party that at least pretended to care about old Americans, or a third world party that doesn't care about anything else but wokeness and Israel. Right now it sure looks like the party is going with the 2nd option and it's going to push out comparatively moderate people like Haley Stevens out of the party. 

It's telling that Stevens is now persona non-grata for the Democrats. She has little choice now but to be a de facto Republican, even if she doesn't agree with Republicans on any other issues. Indeed, that's the biggest criticism of the current Democratic Party. There is a lot less political diversity on the Democratic side and it's very clear that the party is not a "big tent". 

I do think that some of this is personal too. I get the feeling that Stevens and Sayed despise each other and there is a lot of hurt feelings from a very close primary race. I think both sides think the other's views on Israel are evil. 

Regardless though, this endorsement came too late to affect the race that much. Unless the margin is razor thin, this came to late to actually change anything. Like I said, voting has been underway for weeks now and even the people that could have been persuaded by this have already voted. 

I do think it's possible, probable even, that el-Sayed is going to lose to Mike Rodgers. He's a political extremist and, as I have mentioned several times, I don't trust the polling whatsoever. He could still win, and that would be a shame, but I think whatever the case, the die was cast long before this endorsement from Haley Stevens. 

President Trump and Senator Lisa Murkowski condemn Democrat involvement in the two Dan Sullivan scheme.

 

Mary Peltola. Politico/AFP.

President Trump and Senator Lisa Murkowski have condemned a new report that accuses Senate Candidate Mary Peltola of involvement in the false Dan Sullivan scheme. Politico. Incumbent Republican Senate Candidate Dan Sullivan is facing another candidate with the same name and the new report says that Peltola's campaign was behind the search for the 2nd Dan Sullivan. Alaska uses a ranked choice voting system and having two candidates on the ballot with the same name may confuse voters. Peltola's former campaign manager, Elisa Rios, made the accusations that Peltola was absolutely aware of the scheme, and there was other evidence that confirmed her account, despite the fact that she tried to retract it. The Trump administration has already filed suit that will challenge the result of the election if the true Dan Sullivan does not win and the margin is small enough that the 2nd Dan Sullivan votes could change the outcome. 

My Comment:

The two Dan Sullivans scheme is one of the most cynical things I have ever seen the Democrats do and it's a very strong argument against ranked choice voting. This story is a scandal and it's one that I hope costs Mary Peltola's chances to win next week. 

Everyone already knew that the Democrats were behind this scheme. The only problem, and the reason why this story blew up so much to the point even President Trump is talking about it, is there was no proof until now. It was an open secret but now there is actual proof. Rios made the statement, retracted it, but that's not the only evidence provided. I think it's essentially confirmed to the point if a crime was committed here, a case could be made. 

This could cause quite a bit of damage to the Mary Peltola campaign. Voters don't like efforts to actively trick them and it could anger enough moderates, or even some Democrats, that they could vote for the real Sullivan instead. I know in my case, if the parties were reversed, I'd be rather disgusted that my side was doing something like this. It's just such a scummy thing to do and proves that the Democrats only care about winning. 

It also has the benefit of publicizing efforts to make sure folks vote for the right Dan Sullivan. To recap, the real Dan Sullivan has an S. middle initial, is marked as the Incumbent and has Republican on the ballot, while Dan J. Sullivan does not have the incumbency or GOP label. Having this scandal break a week before the election will hopefully educate anyone who would have otherwise been confused by this scheme. 

It could also help efforts to end ranked choice voting, which is also on the ballot this year. Indeed, as I said before, this is a very good argument as to why ranked choice voting is a joke. I think people in Alaska will realize how bad this is and finally get rid of it. It was almost revoked in the last election and only failed by a few hundred votes, and given the news now, maybe this time it will succeed. 

I think this is a good example of cheating while you were ahead. I think Peltola's chances of beating Sullivan are worse now with this scheme than it would have been if she had just run legit. I don't think she was really going to win regardless, but if she pulls it off now I would be very surprised. It's another reason I am pretty bullish on the Republicans keeping the Senate, I don't really think Alaska is in play anymore. 

If she does win though, can anything be done? It really depends. If it's an extremely narrow victory and the results could have been different without the fake Dan Sullivan on the ballot? Then the lawsuit deployed by the DOJ will go through. Will it overturn the election results? I doubt it. The judge that did so would be painting a target on his back, and not just metaphorically. Especially if the result causes control of the Senate to change hands... 

My thoughts on the 2026 midterms...

 

President Donald Trump. Official portrait. 

As you are almost certainly aware, the 2026 midterms are next week in the United States. Unlike many previous elections, I am having a very hard time predicting what will happen. As I have written several times this year, polling is unreliable at best and deliberately misleading at worst. We had four cases of polling firms just making things up for "social experiments" and once that happens, polling, which has already been wrong for years now, loses all credibility. 

Without the advantage of polling, you kind of have to use your brain to try and figure out which side is going to win. The media narrative is that the Republicans are going to get wiped out, and that's what the unreliable polling says. But is that what is going to happen? 

To be fair, I do think that the Democrats do have some legit advantages and I do think it's worth it to go through them. But I also think the Republicans have some as well. And I think the narrative that the GOP is going to lose both the House and the Senate by wide margins is unlikely. 

So what are the Democrats advantages?

1. President Trump is, supposedly, unpopular. Trump's polling is underwater and I think he lost quite a bit of support because of the Iran conflict. How relevant this is, is an open question, but Democrats are going to argue that Trump will bring his own party down. I do think that the GOP's chances of holding onto both houses would be higher if the Iran War hadn't happened. How unpopular Trump actually is, is also an open question due to the aforementioned terrible polling issues. Historically, polling has always underestimated President Trump and his party during his era. 

2. Historically, the President's party ends up taking losses during midterms. This is as close to a rule as you can get when it comes to US politics and it would be surprising if that was not the case. 

3. Candidate quality is a problem for Republicans. This is entirely about Vivek Ramaswamy, who is one of the worst candidates the Republican Party has ever put up and he's putting a safe Republican state, Ohio, into play for the Democrats as well as making a safe senate seat into play. Ramaswamy would be a bad candidate normally, but he's emblematic of all the problems the United States has right now. 

4. The economy is not working for a lot of people. More on this in the GOP section though. 

5.  Gas prices are undeniably high. People are angry about this and they may blame President Trump and his party for this. 

6. Roy Cooper is almost certainly going to win in North Carolina as he is a very good candidate. He's a popular ex-Governor and there really isn't a scenario where he loses outside of a Red Wave year. He narrows the path that Republicans have to keep the Senate, and he does it in a swing state that has trended Republican. 

But I do think that the Republicans have some major advantages as well.

1. The Democrats are even more unpopular than President Trump. Indeed, they have never recovered after 2024 and people still remember they are the party that opened the borders and support children changing genders. 

2. The Republicans won the redistricting war. The redistricting efforts led to between 6 and 12 seats that are now fairly safe for Republicans, which means the Democrats path to win the House is a lot narrower. Indeed, most of the Democratic House seats in the South have been eliminated. There is a small chance that it could backfire on Republicans, but still, it seems unlikely that this isn't a huge advantage for the GOP. 

3. The DSA is a big problem for the Democrats on multiple fronts. In places like Wisconsin where the DSA candidate lost (in embarrassing fashion due to the fake polling), DSA supporters are demoralized and may not show up. I live in Wisconsin and I see almost zero enthusiasm for David Crowley. 

But in places where the DSA candidate won? It's scaring the normies. Folks don't like to see people like El-Sayed in Michigan and I think a lot of folks are going to turn out against them. The Democrats are scarier than the Republicans, for sure, and it may drag down the party as a whole. 

4. Democrats don't have an animating issue in 2026. There's not Black Lives Matter to turn out black voters. There's no real fear of Trump anymore given that he will be gone in two years no matter what. The things that are animating people, like the Palestine issue or AI Data Centers, are pretty much ignored by both parties. Generally speaking you need an animating issue to turn out low propensity voters. I do think that Republican voters are still animated by Trump and his pet issues, though at least some of them dropped out due to Iran. 

5. Democrats are broke. The Republicans absolutely had a massive money advantage while the national Democratic Party was broke. Indeed, there have been reports of the Democrats waving the white flag in certain House districts. They have been canceling ad orders to better use what resources they have left. This is also linked to the fact that USAID was defunded, so that limits how much money they can raise. 

6. The Trump Administration is being very aggressive against voter fraud and other shenanigans. This has been a major factor in previous elections, Democrats could get away with things if they weren't being watched. But now they are being watched. 

7. The economy is working for the people most likely to vote. This probably sounds insane if you are Generation Z or a Millennial, but Gen X, Boomers and the few remaining Silents are doing great right now. The stock market is high, home prices are high, and the complaints young people are having about H1B visas, HR never calling folks back and high housing costs, aren't really relevant for them. I think these generations are fine with how things are going and they will show up for the GOP on election day. 

I would also say that this advantage with older voters limits the damage people like Nick Fuentes and other disgruntled "Republicans" angry about Iran can do. Their audience is almost entirely made up of people that are unlikely to vote anyways. Folks talking about "punishing" the GOP weren't likely to vote anyways. 

So, with all that being said, what do I think will happen? Well, I think we can eliminate a Blue or Red Wave style election. Redistricting alone means that the chances of getting a huge win is a long shot for Democrats. And a midterm election is not the time for the Republicans to pick up major seats. 

That leaves three real outcomes, a Blue trickle where the Democrats pick up the House and Senate but by slim margins. The 2nd outcome is a minor Blue victory where they pick up the House or the Senate, not both. The third option is that the Republicans keep both houses, probably by a slim margin. 

Which of these do I see as most likely? I would say the most likely outcome is the split where the Republicans keep the Senate and the Democrats gain the house by a slim margin. The opposite outcome, where the Dems win the Senate, seems impossible given the advantages the Republicans have in the Senate. The other two outcomes, the Blue Trickle or the GOP hold seem less likely but are at least possible. 

Still, I wouldn't want to put money on much this year, if I was the kind of person to bet on politics. With polling in the state it's in, my predictions are based on vibes and not data (except for the GOP redistricting wins). Any outcome is possible, outside of a true wave election. 

The Black Sea has become the world's most dangerous due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

 

A Russian tanker with anti-drone netting. Financial Times.

The Black Sea has become the world's most dangerous due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Financial Times. More sailors have died in the Black Sea than any other waterway in the world this year, despite the conflict against Iran. The Black Sea is a critical route for grain from Ukraine and oil from Russia. Attacks from both Russia and Ukraine have hit 570 shops and killed at least 40 sailors, compared to only 24 in the Strait of Hormuz, though given that both Russia and Ukraine have motivations to downplay the violence, the true toll is unknown. The Black Sea has been dangerous at all stages of the war, but the current level of violence increased after Ukraine began targeting gas freighters delivering to Crimea, but Russia responded and expanded the attacks dramatically, to the point where 90% of strikes in the past 45 days were from Russia. Both sides have resorted to using other ports to try and avoid the chaos in the Black Sea. As for the shippers, they are having trouble insuring the ships and finding crew to man them. 

My Comment:

The Battle for the Black Sea has been an under-covered aspect of the Russia-Ukraine war. To be fair, the war has gone through three phases. The first phase, Ukraine won a major victory, largely pushing Russia's Navy out of the conflict, especially after their flagship Cruiser Moskva was destroyed. The second phase was noted by the brokered grain deal that allowed Ukraine to ship without too much hassle. But now we are in the third phase, which has now turned into a buzzsaw. 

I do think that this is not a great development for Ukraine. And they only have themselves to blame. This is another consequence of their rather misguided war on Russia's energy production. Though Ukraine has done damage, Russia's response has been brutal. And largely shutting down shipping is one of the bigger effects. 

Ukraine already has cashflow problems. They need to be able to ship out their exports if they are to have any income at all. But right now their choices are mostly to ship it overland or try to get them out on the Danube River, which is also under heavy attack. If this keeps up, things will get very interesting next year. 

To be fair, it's not like this is good for Russia either. They need to ship out oil and gas and the Black Sea is a good route to do so. Yes, they have a lot of other ports to do so and can ship over land as well, but neither is a good solution. The difference is that Russia is better equipped to absorb the losses. 

Either way, this is not a good development for the rest of the world. Though the Iran War and the Houthi conflict in Yemen have had a larger effect on gas prices, the Black Sea conflict is absolutely contributing to the high prices. It's why I am hoping that the peace talks actually happen and we can end this war. 

Until that happens I do expect this to get worse before it gets better. The article mentioned that both sides have gone from targeting the engines to targeting the bridge, which will absolutely lead to more deaths. I am guessing that the problems they are facing finding crew willing to face this are just going to get worse...