The United States and Iran are discussing ending the war in a phased shutdown. Will it happen before the midterms?

 

Vessels stacked up in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters. 

The United States and Iran are discussing ending the war in a phased shutdown. Reuters. The meeting happened in New York during the UN Assembly. The deal would potentially end the blockade against Iran and would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides have motivations to end the conflict. Iran is being crushed economically due to the blockade while the United States has been affected by high gas prices due to the conflict, which is also affecting the 2026 midterm elections. However, both sides do not want to give up the leverage they have over each other, Iran could believe they could get a better deal after the midterms. And President Trump could be content to let Iran's economy collapse. Still, talks could ease tensions and prevent the on-and-off conflict from erupting again. 

My Comment:

Somewhat promising news from the Iran conflict. The war has been in a limbo where not much has been happening. No talks have been happening and very little has been happening in the way of combat either. Indeed, the Yemen conflict has been the main issue lately, though that is mostly a Saudi problem. 

Fortunately it does seem like the Iranians are using the the UN meeting as an opportunity to talk. Talk is always preferable than not talking and it could mean a negotiated settlement will come. Indeed, that seems like the only realistic way to end the war, the only other possibilities are the Iranian regime collapsing (which isn't likely) or America getting tried of the farce and going home. Neither of those are likely, so it will likely end with talks. 

The problem is that the Iranians aren't rational actors. Indeed, if they were the war would have never started in the first place or, at the very least, would have ended months ago. It's very possible they will continue to be obstinate because they don't actually care what's best for them or their country. 

I do agree that both sides have a major reason to end the war. The blockade and sanctions against Iran have been fairly successful. And remember, Iran's economy was already in shambles before the conflict even begun. They had major environmental problems and were already experiencing hyperinflation. They just can't keep going economically and something is eventually going to have to give. 

As for Trump and the Untied States, I think there is less pressure there and it's mostly political in nature. There is a problem with depleted weapons stocks, which has been overblown but is real, but it's mostly about the midterms. I think the war's impact is overstated and, at the very least, the Republicans are going to keep the Senate, but the chances of keeping the House grow if the war ends and gas prices go down. There's absolutely a motivation to end the conflict. 

However, I do think that Trump isn't willing to sell the farm just for an advantage in the Midterms. He wants the best deal he can get and isn't going to settle for something that doesn't give him the advantage. And he might be more concerned about the 2028 elections than the 2026 midterms. His thinking might be "it's worth it to lose the house if it means the GOP keeps the Presidency in 2026" and that would be more difficult if the Iran war flares up again in 2027 or 2028. 

Either way, the Iran conflict has lasted way longer than it should have. It should have ended months ago and I could see the Iranian's screwing it up again. If I was optimistic, it's a 50-50 chance that these talks lead to anything, but I am not at this point and it's probably 70-30 that it won't amount to much. Still, at least there is an effort to end the war. 

Why are the Saudis having so much trouble against the Houthis in Yemen?

 

A screengrab showing combat in Yemen. Times of Israel/AFP.

Despite wealth and modern weapons, the Saudis are having major issues in the fight against the Houthis in Yemen. Times of Israel. Saudi Arabia has bought billions of dollars worth of weapons from Western nations, most recently a $24.3 billion deal for 48 F-35 fighter planes. But they have been unable to prevent the Houthi rebels from taking almost all of the coastline of the Red Sea, blocking oil traffic from the Saudis and even striking Riyadh itself. Despite the advantage in weaponry, Saudi Arabia's military is viewed as weak due to concerns over a military coup. The Saudis have also has issues with their allies. Local Yemeni forces complain of a lack of weapons and support. The Saudis have also alienated their UAE allies after the UAE took over government areas in Yemen. The Saudis objected to that and the UAE left the conflict, but the Saudis were not able to take up the slack. The US and Britain also launched strikes against the Houthis in the past, but so far the United States has refused to launch strikes against the Houthis, given diplomatic efforts from the Houthis themselves along with not being willing to open another front in the Iran conflict. 

My Comment:

The Saudis are proof that money can't buy you anything. You can buy the most advanced weapons in the world but if you don't have the will to use them, you will still lose. And that is what is happening with the Saudis in Yemen now. 

Though the article mentioned it, the main problem is the weakness of the Saudi allies in Yemen. It's the same old military problem in the Middle East. They have the same kind of problems they had in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ghost soldiers are a real problem and it's pretty common for a lot of these units to exist in name only. That's a good example of there not being enough local control over these units and it's a huge problem and it's a major reason why these forces collapsed. 

The Saudi military has their own issues. In short, the Kingdom does not want a strong military that could ever be a threat towards the Royal Family. They have kept their military weak and they don't really have a lot of people that are competent. 

Alienating their allies has been a big issue as well. I don't really understand why the UAE's actions last year angered them so much. But kicking them out of Yemen without being able to replace them was a huge mistake and it's a major reason why everything in Yemen went so badly. Given that the UAE has a pretty competent military it was obviously a mistake to send them out. 

I do think this is a major reason why Israel remains a major ally of the United States. The Gulf States in general are pretty bad at warfare, while Israel is a lot more powerful and competent. I don't think the Saudis could have done anything like the Israelis did during the Iran conflict and the conflict in Yemen shows that the they have a lot more to offer. 

As for the conflict itself, I do hope we stay out of it. It does seem like the Saudis are pushing us to back their play but it also seems like Trump is very much suspicious of doing so. Given the Houthis are playing nice it's likely we will avoid getting dragged into this war. 

I do have to say that it's important to note that the Houthis themselves are tough fighters. For being a bunch of backward people that are addicted to khat, they absolutely know how to fight. They have been consistently punching above their level and though the Saudi military is fairly weak, it's impressive that they can stand up to them so effectively. Plus, how many other rebel groups can pull off ballistic missile strikes?  

Canadian MAiD case erupts in controversy as family alleges that an 83 year old grandmother died without her consent.

 

Brigitte Stegemann (left) and her granddaughter Brigitte Kranendonk. Fox News. 

The family of a 83 year old woman who died under Canada's Medically Assistance in Dying program is alleging that she was killed against her will. Fox News. The woman, Brigitte Kranendonk, suffered from stomach cancer and her granddaughter, Brigitte Stegemann, had power of attorney over her. She was in an elderly care program and while the daughter was on vacation, a nurse recommended MAiD for Kranendonk. Stegemann claimed that Kranendonk had opposed MAiD for religious grounds, but when she returned Kranendonk had already been signed up. She also alleges that the doctors misled her grandmother and that she appeared to not understand what was happening. The incident brings further criticism of Canada's MAiD program, which is now responsible for 1 in 20 deaths in the country. An investigation into this case is ongoing and could lead to charges. 

My Comment:

I don't think I have changed my mind on any other issue more than these assisted suicide laws and what is happening in Canada is a major reason why. "Canadian healthcare" use to be a left wing talking point in favor of socialized medicine but now? Now it's shorthand for a government killing its citizens. 

To be fair, nothing in this case has been tried yet. It's possible that the granddaughter is wrong and that Kranendonk truly did want to die. She did have cancer and could have been in pain. It's possible the granddaughter was seeing things that weren't there or is trying to be an advocate. 

However, that seems unlikely. I can't say for sure that this case is exactly how it has been described, but I would put money on it given what I have heard in similar cases from Canada. I am guessing that Stegemann is telling the truth. And if she is? Then this is murder, not assisted suicide, even by the laws of Canada. 

I don't really trust Canada to actually investigate this either. Sure, there is the idea that they might want to come down hard on any violators of the law so folks will have faith in the program, but I doubt it. Canada has made MAiD a keystone program of their healthcare and I doubt they would relish a case that calls it into question. I don't think they will be able to cover anything up, but I don't think the investigation will be valid either. 

Regardless, I do think that this case shows that the MAiD program is a mess. It seems very clear that the nurses and doctors are pushing MAiD as hard as they can. I won't speculate too much what the motivation in this case is, but it could be that they were true believers and actually thought they were helping, regardless of what Kranendonk wanted. 

But my real fear is that MAiD is mostly used to save money for Canada's socialized medicine. End of life care is expensive and by ending the life of 1 in 20 Canadians is probably saving millions of dollars. So there is a real incentive there to push it on vulnerable people, like this 83 year old grandmother. That might not have been what happened here, but it seems very possible. 

Houthi Rebels say they won't target anyone but the Saudis, warn other countries from joining the war.

 

Houthi supporters in Sanaa. AP.

The Houthi Rebels have said that they won't target anyone but the Saudis but warned other countries against getting involved in the conflict. AP. Washington had reached out to the Houthis and an agreement was made that neither side would attack each other. The Houthis said they would not attack any other countries ships transiting the Red Sea. Oman had hosted the meeting between the United States and the Houthis. The Houthis are demanding that the Saudis end their blockade against rebel areas that they have imposed during the civil war. The Houthis have had some success lately against the Yemeni government and have launched major attacks against Saudi Arabia. 

My Comment:

After years of stalemate the situation in Yemen seems to have escalated dramatically. The Houthis have taken most of the territory on the Red Sea and have even launched major attacks on Saudi targets. Indeed, right now the attacks on Saudi oil production is a major reason why gas prices exploded last week. 

The situation is an embarrassment for the Saudis as they have never been able to deal with the Houthis. The fact that not only are the Saudi allies in Yemen getting devastated this last couple of weeks. And they have not been able to defeat Houthi attacks on their homeland. It's part of the reason why the oil markets were panicking, they just couldn't deal with the Houthis and their attacks. 

The Saudis aren't putting boots on the ground but they are training the Yemeni forces opposed to the Houthis. They are also launching heavy air strikes in support of these forces. But it hasn't been enough. The Houthis are tough fighters. They have been very resilient to these kinds of attacks and are on the offensive. 

The real fear was that other countries were going to be dragged into this conflict. Indeed, I had feared that Trump's return from Camp David early this weekend had more to do with Yemen than Iran. Thankfully I appear to have been wrong. The Houthis are, as of this writing, saying they don't want to fight anyone but the Saudis. And the United States and Israel don't seem to be willing to back up their Saudi allies. 

Could it happen in the future? Of course. But I don't think either side really wants to be involved in Yemen. The United States and Israeli military are a lot more competent than the Saudis and the Houthis don't particularly want to face that kind of firepower. And nobody wants to be dragged into another conflict while the Iran conflict is still raging. 

The problem is that these attacks on Saudi oil facilities is not helping oil prices, which are already high due to the Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine War. This report might calm things down a bit, but I am guessing lower fears over Yemen will be outweighed by the bad news from Russia this weekend where Ukraine launched major attacks on their oil facilities as well. And the Iran conflict still lingers on. 

US and Denmark make breakthrough deal on Greenland.

 

Nuuk Greenland. Reuters. 

The United States and Denmark have made a breakthrough deal on Greenland. Reuters. The deal will expand the US military presence on the island far beyond a previous 1951 agreement. The agreement, which has no end date and would apply even if Greenland would gain independence from Denmark, also prevents foreign adversaries from building military bases there. The United States already has a small Space Force base, formally known as Thule, in Greenland. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says that the new agreement answers all of America's security concerns with the island. President Trump had said in the past that he wanted to acquire Greenland, though those efforts will likely be dropped with the new deal. 

My Comment:

Looks like Trump's months of saber rattling last year paid off, Greenland is now under de facto US military control. Though we already had a lot of power over the island militarily, this new deal goes a lot further and will likely result in new bases being built beyond whatever they are calling Thule now (Pituffik Space Base). 

Though the specifics of this deal are still unknown what is known is that US dominance over Greenland in terms of the military will now last for the foreseeable future, even if Greenland leaves Denmark. Given how critical the island is for the military defense of the United States and how unreliable our allies our, especially in Canada, this is a coup. 

It also ensures that America's adversaries, most notably China and Russia, won't be able to sneak into Greenland either. Though I don't think either nation has the ability or desire to take over Greenland, this will also prevent them from becoming friendly with Greenland and will ensure that they won't be able to get a toehold there any time soon.

This is a pretty big win for the Trump administration and I think it's one that following administrations, be they Republican or otherwise, will appreciate regardless. Like I said, Greenland is critical for US defense given how useful it is as an early warning base. It also sits on major trade routes, and has a lot of mineral resources. It also has about as much oil as the United States has left, though that's more of a long term opportunity given the obvious difficulty drilling for it in Artic conditions would imply. 

I do think this is another example of Trump's more aggressive foreign policy being useful. By demanding Greenland itself, Trump was able to secure a deal where he got everything he wanted in the first place. And I don't think this deal would have happened if it wasn't for the fact that Trump was saber rattling.