President Trump announces energy cease fire in Iran, claiming talks are ongoing.

 

President Donald Trump. BBC/EPA.

President Trump announces a five day energy cease fire in Iran, claiming talks are ongoing. BBC. Trump had previously threatened to destroy Iran's energy production. Iran has denied any talks are ongoing but it is unclear who in the Iranian government Trump is negotiating with. Trump said that Iran had agreed to give up the pursuit of nuclear weapons, a major war goal. Some question if the story is even real as Trump is well known for keeping his personal thoughts about military conflict close to the vest and is known to mislead his enemies on military matters. 

My Comment:

It's hard to comment on what President Trump is doing when it comes to military conflict because he does believe that it's stupid to telegraph what he is planning. He's got a point, keeping your enemies confused is a valid strategy and one that has worked for him in the past. 

And I also think that's just as true for Iran. I would be shocked if they weren't talking to the United States in some fashion and I have seen other media reports that they are using intermediaries in the region to pass messages to and from the United States. 

The real question is who Trump is actually talking to. He has specifically denied that he's talking to the new Ayatollah Khamenei, who might not even be alive after injuries sustained in airstrikes. But could it be the Iranian President? Some general that wants out? Some other high ranking figure? Or someone representing Khamenei? Who knows? 

I am guessing that whoever it was blinked. Iran's government's grip on the country is already weak for many reasons, most notably a water crisis in the capitol. Had Trump actually destroyed Iran's energy infrastructure it would be the end of the Iranian regime as it stands right now. It would be an absolute disaster for them. They would not survive. 

It does raise the question on why Trump didn't just do it. I am guessing it's because it would be a humanitarian disaster as well. It would also mean that it could turn Iran into a failed state. That would be a good way to end the war but it seems likely that the war is going to end with a negotiated settlement at this point. 

So, will that happen? It's probably the 2nd most possible outcome. I still think Trump declaring victory and going home is the more likely option. But it's more likely now that a deal will be made with someone from the regime. It does seem like a complete regime collapse is a lot less likely than the other outcomes at this point.  

ICE Agents will assist in airport security as DHS shutdown continues.

 

Long lines due to a lack of TSA agents. BBC/Getty.

ICE Agents will assist in airport security as the DHS shutdown continues. BBC. Travelers have been facing hours long lines due to a lack of TSA agents for security. ICE agents are well suited for the role as many of them use similar machines on the border. ICE will not be involved in screening passengers directly, but they will be used to free up TSA agents so they can do so. The lack of funding for DHS has caused TSA agents to go without pay for more than a month and 400 agents have quit.

My Comment:

I've got mixed feelings about this. First, the negative. I don't really want ICE agents doing anything other than deporting illegal immigrants. I know that deportations are still going on but the problem is big enough that even the 3 million that have been deported or left is hardly a drop in the bucket. I want that number to go up by a very large amount and every agent helping at our airports is an agent not deporting illegal immigrants. From what I understand the impact will be minimal, ICE has 22,000 agents and only a hundred or so are going to be used here, but still. 

But I have to admit that this is a great solution to the TSA shutdown. ICE agents are going to be able to help the TSA with these long lines and will eliminate much of the leverage the Democrats have on this issue. ICE already has experience with the kind of roles they will be used for so it's a natural fit. 

The Democrats whole strategy was to put pressure on the Republicans to somehow defund ICE and they were relying on making travelers miserable in order to do so. With this deployment they aren't going to accomplish that. Indeed, they won't accomplish anything whatsoever and the longer the shutdown occurs the more criticism they are going to get. 

What will the Democrats do now? My guess is they will get some kind of temporary injunction to prevent President Trump from doing something he clearly has the authority to do. They will find some judge that cares more about screwing over President Trump over the law, just like they have done so many times before. But eventually the ruling will be overturned. 

Regardless, I do think this is going to backfire on the Democrats. ICE hasn't been affected by this shutdown at all, it's already funded, so all this is accomplishing is punishing the people at the TSA, FEMA and the Coast Guard. Given the current security situation it's insane that the Democrats are holding this funding up. All it would take is one major terrorist attack and the whole thing will be beyond bad for the Democrats. 

And it's not like the issue is exactly relevant anymore. The conflict with Iran has stopped the momentum of every single other news story in the country. Nobody is talking about ICE and deportations anymore and the Democrat's "martyrs", Renee Goode and Alex Pretti, have been almost completely forgotten, except when the Republicans mock them for causing their own deaths. It's a non issue now and people are going to be upset. 

USS Gerald R Ford to head to port after damage from a fire.

 

File photo of the USS Gerald R. Ford. BBC/Reuters.

The USS Gerald R. Ford will head to Crete for repairs after major damage from a fire. BBC. The Ford, America's newest and most powerful aircraft carrier was deployed in the conflict against Iran. A major fire broke out in the ships laundry room, destroying it and causing over 100 beds to become uninhabitable due to the effects of the fire. 200 sailors were exposed to smoke inhalation while three were treated for injuries. The ship remains operational but will return to Crete for repairs. The ships deployment has become controversial as it has been at sea for nine months, and has faced combat in both Venezuela and Iran. The USS George HW Bush is expected to replace the Ford soon. 

My Comment:

The fire that damaged the Ford was a pretty severe one. Fires on a ship are always a big deal but this one made part of the ship uninhabitable and destroyed the laundry room, which is very important on such a large ship. It is not a surprise that the ship will have to be repaired and refurbished. 

Laundry fires are a common threat to most naval vessels. In a large ship like the Ford, these facilities are often in constant use and given the extreme length of this deployment it's possible maintenance and safety could have been put at risk. Of course, fires happen on ships all the time so it's not surprising that this happened. 

I also think there is no evidence that this was anything other than an accident. Some pro-Iran accounts are pushing the idea that this was an attack by Iran, but that seems ludicrous to me. The Ford is in the Red Sea and even if the Iranians had the exact location they would be very unlikely to be able to strike the ship at this point in the war. They simply don't have the weapons or intelligence capabilities to locate and strike the Ford. And if they were somehow able to do so, it wouldn't be possible to hide it. 

Sabotage is similarly extremely unlikely. It's possible some sailor wanted to sabotage the ship, as things like this have happened before, but I can't see them starting a fire in the laundry room of all places. And, again, that's not something you would be able to hide either. 

The real issue is that the deployment of the Ford lasted too long. It's almost been 10 months at sea for the ship and that's almost a record. Given how new the ship is and how intensely it's been used in both Iran and Venezuela, it's no surprise that things have gone wrong. In addition to this fire, the ship had major problems with sewage as well, which is also a common problem for deployed ships. It's possible the extreme length of this deployment contributed to the fire. 

How much does this affect the conflict with Iran? Short term, it's not great, but it's also not the end of the world. The Ford may be capable continuing combat operations, but it's going to be out of position in Crete, which is a Greek Island in the Mediterranean. It will still be able to launch some strikes but it will cause some issues until it is replaced. 

There is good news though too. The replacement of the Ford, the USS George HW Bush, is probably only a week away. And it's not like the Ford was the only Carrier operating in the area, the USS Abraham Lincoln is also deployed and will be able to pick up the slack. In addition, the USS Tripoli, carrying a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) and a squadron or so of F-35B Lightnings will be in the region shortly as well. The disruption caused by this fire will be a short one. 

As for the conflict itself, the timing of this fire isn't the worst. Given how badly Iran's military and navy have been mauled by our forces, having a carrier be out of position isn't really that relevant anymore. It would have been one thing if it happened right at the beginning of the conflict, but now? It's not going to affect the war much. 

I do think that the real story is that we shouldn't be deploying carriers for this long. The problem is that most of our fleet is down for repairs. Plus the Nimitz is about to be decommissioned and the Kennedy hasn't been fitted out yet. I know the timing of this conflict was probably important but it might have made more sense to push the Bush to take over for the Ford before the conflict even began. 

The left is canceling Cesar Chavez, a famous union activist, for unspecified allegations of misconduct.

 

Cesar Chavez. AP file photo. 

The United Farm Workers union is distancing themselves from Cesar Chavez following unspecified allegations of misconduct. AP. The Union said that Chavez had been accused of abuse of young women or minors. They did not say they had any direct knowledge of these allegations and have not received any direct reports of abuse. Chavez was a famous organizer for farm workers unions and organized strikes against poor working conditions for farm workers. He died in 1993 at the age of 66. 

My Comment:

This is a fairly odd thing to happen. As far as I am aware there have never been credible accusations of Cesar Chavez being a sex pest. None whatsoever. It's very strange that all of a sudden the union he founded has distanced themselves from him and are encouraging their supporters to do anything but celebrate the man and his legacy. 

And he does have a major legacy. Chavez is someone that most people find pretty impressive given that he was able to protect workers on farms from bad conditions. He organized strikes and got better conditions for workers. He's the kind of guy that the Democrats have lionized for years and it's absolutely shocking to see him cut loose after this, especially after he's been dead for 30 years. 

What is even more shocking is that this is happening before any allegations have even been released. Supposedly the New York Times is writing a long form article that will detail these allegations. But the article hasn't been released yet and nobody has even vetted the allegations 

This is crazy to me as the left has been very reluctant to cancel other heroes they have. Martin Luther King was credibly accused of extramarital affairs and even accused of rape, but his legacy remains intact. Harvey Milk was openly dating a 16 year old boy and he didn't get canceled either. But they are canceling Chavez now?

This tells me one of two things. The first possibility is that Chavez is a next level sex pest. It would have to be worse than extramarital affairs or openly dating a 16 year old. The allegations are for abuse of young women and minors and that could mean anything from "he dated a 17 year old consensually" to "he abused small children". If it's the latter than I could see why they are distancing themselves so dramatically. 

It's also possible that this is a huge over reaction The New York Times piece, if it even exists, has not been released and hasn't been vetted. Like I said, these allegations are totally new and do not gel well with what we know about Chavez and his personal life. It's very possible that the allegations are bunk and they are just cutting him lose.

Why? Part of it is due to the impact of #MeToo. In today's Democrat Party you can't even be accused of any kind of mistreatment of a woman, no matter how long ago it happened and how weak the evidence is. Though #MeToo is not the force it once was, it still had a major impact on the way the Democrats and left feel. 

But honestly? It was probably because Chavez was opposed to illegal immigration. He considered illegal immigrants to be strike breakers and called INS (the forerunner to ICE) on them. He was even opposed to guest worker programs that would put him two the right of most Republicans and President Trump himself on the issue. Indeed, it's almost certain if Chavez was around today he would have voted for Trump just because of this issue alone, at least the 1970's version of him. Given that illegal immigration is now a sacred cow on the left, it's not surprising they are canceling Chavez. 

Trump hints that Cuba may have major changes soon.

 

President Donald Trump. Politico/AP. 

President Donald Trump is hinting that Cuba may have a major change in leadership soon. Politico. Cuba may have been sent a warning as Trump said that he "might have the honor of taking Cuba" and that he could do "whatever he wanted" with the communist nation. Cuba and the United States have had some talks but the island is under an extreme energy crisis after being cut off from Venezuelan oil. Cuban Americans have wanted Cuba's communist government to fall for decades now. 

My Comment:

The communist regime in Cuba is at it's weakest point in recent history. Cutting of the oil and money from Venezuela has been a disaster for them and nobody has picked up the slack to provide them oil due to the extreme pressure from the United States. Power went out completely today to the point where even essential services aren't working. 

It's not something Cuba can sustain long term. There is a limit that the Cuban people will accept and losing power long term is not something they will tolerate. If a deal isn't made soon, the Cuban people might just take out the regime themselves. 

Talks are ongoing and the sticking point is likely the Trump Administration's demand that Cuba's president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, step down. How strict that demand is isn't something I know, but I am guessing it's pretty non-negotiable. Trump wants to do what he did in Venezuela, replacing a hostile president with a lot more friendly attitude. 

The real question is if they are going to keep the regime without the leadership like they did in Venezuela or are they going to go for a full replacement? I can't see the Cubans going for the 2nd option, but I would also think that Marco Rubio and other prominent Cuban American settling for the 1st. Perhaps some kind of compromise where the regime stays in place for now but new elections are held soon?

Regardless, I do think that the Cubans will be motivated to make a deal. They simply don't have much of a choice. Getting cut off from energy is going to destroy their regime, and fairly quickly as well. Like I said, they won't want to wait until the Cuban people take matters into their own hands. 

But they have to be thinking about Trump's more aggressive foreign policy. They know that they won't have much of a chance if Trump decides to take them out, just look at what happened in Venezuela and Iran. President Diaz-Canel must understand that not making a deal with the United States is likely to end his life. 

I would not expect it to come to that though, and certainly there aren't the forces in the area to press the issue and there won't be until the Iran conflict ends. The US military probably could handle two conflicts at once, but there is the idea they should finish one conflict before starting another. 

But we can do two things at once. We can negotiate with Cuba and fight Iran at the same time. And if a deal is made we will get another vassal in our collection, to go along with Venezuela. Cuba isn't as valuable as Venezuela is, but they have been a thorn in our side for my entire lifetime and beyond and ending the Cuban regime would be a major accomplishment.