President Trump faces a difficult decision in Yemen due to Saudi Arabia's difficulties dealing with the Houthis.

 

Houthi rebels. CBS News/Houthi handout. 

President Trump is facing a difficult decision due to Saudi Arabia's difficulties in dealing with the Houthi rebels in Yemen. CBS News. The Houthis have been effective in battle, taking over the west coast of Yemen and launching major strikes across Saudi Arabia. An American Citizen was killed in one of their strikes on Saudi infrastructure, during an attack on King Khalid International Airport. Trump warned the Houthis on social media, saying he was "looking at" striking the Houthis. However, strikes may be unlikely for many reasons, most notably the midterm elections. For their part, the Houthis have vowed to not blockade the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to any ships that aren't Saudi Arabian. The Saudis, however, have pushed America to launch strikes. Current support from the United States has been limited to intelligence sharing, targeting info and some limited logistical support. 

My Comment:

One thing is clear, unless something major changes, like a blockade being launched by the Houthis, or American interests being targeted directly, we won't see any action in Yemen until after the midterms. Trump would pull the trigger if the facts on the ground force his hand, but as of this writing, that is not the case. I don't think a fresh conflict with Yemen would move the needle at all in the midterms, anyone who would otherwise support Trump and would be upset over a foreign policy move probably isn't voting in the first place. 

But a fresh conflict would likely increase oil prices and that is something Trump is extremely focused on right now. Indeed, it's so important that he's actually, finally, pressuring Ukraine to stop attacking Russia's oil facilities. President Trump does face a difficult choice in how to handle this because there are few chances to avoid higher prices regardless. 

I am guessing he is going to try and thread the needle. Trump's threats are probably an effort to remind the Houthis that they signed a peace deal with the United States and attacking US interests, indirectly, could damage things. The Houthis say they don't want war with the United States and that is mutual, but if Saudi energy infrastructure is hit or more American citizens get killed, their words don't much. I am guessing this is Trump's way of pressuring them to stick to military targets and not launch attacks against civilian targets like airports. 

This is also a message to the Saudis. America essentially refused their call to war, which is awkward because the Saudis are a critical US ally. We are helping them, but we have not joined the conflict like they would have liked. This message is saying to the Saudis that they haven't been abandoned completely and that the US will help to at least try and get the Houthis to not target things like airports and oil production. 

The Yemen conflict has been consistently annoying and dangerous, and much of that is due to the Saudis themselves. They have not been effective in fighting the Houthis despite their obvious tech and military advantages. Most critically, they lashed out against their UAE allies who were actually effective in controlling the Houthi rebels. Everything went bad after they did that, and it's a major reason why the Houthis are currently winning the war. 

Of course, the Saudi demands for action won't actually do too much to end the conflict with the Houthis. They have proven resilient and though American air strikes could help, they would not do much to actually end the threat. Remember, we have struck at the Houthis before, as recently as last year, and it hasn't really changed their capabilities. What is actually needed is ground forces to fight the Houthis directly, and the chances of America doing that are approximately zero. If things really go horribly for the Saudis, it's possible US airstrikes could change things, but as bad as things are for the Saudis, that's not where they are now.  

Keep in mind that the US is still recovering their weapons stocks after the Iran conflict, which isn't actually over. If there was a peace deal with Iran in place, it wouldn't matter too much, we still have large stockpiles of weapons, but the Iran conflict was high intensity. We are low on missile interceptors, certain missiles and other weapons and it would push our resources to be involved with potentially two conflicts at once. 

So what's my take? I don't see us joining the Houthi conflict. It's extremely unlikely before the midterms, but even after it, I don't see it happening. Like I said, the Houthis could screw it up if they declare a blockade and or kill a bunch of Americans, but they have little incentive to do so and major incentives to not do so. Trump's comments are most likely saber rattling an nothing more. 

Representative Ilhan Omar's home raided in immigration fraud investigation.

 

Representative Ilhan Omar. New York Post.

Representative Ilhan Omar's home was raided in an immigration fraud investigation. New York Post. A federal judge signed off on the warrant. The investigation is likely due to accusations that Omar was 18 or 19 when she applied for citizenship while claiming she was 17. Though the statute of limitations would have run out years ago, the fact that Omar still claims she was born in 1982, instead of 1981. If those allegations are proven, Omar could be denaturalized and possibly deported. The investigation is not believed to be related to claims that her 2nd husband, Ahmed Elmi, was her brother. Sources say that those accusations are moot as the statue of limitations ran out years ago. 

My Comment:

Omar and her defenders are saying this is political given the timing of the raid three weeks before the election. I have to say that I don't buy it. Omar's district is so safe that I think if video came out today of her eating an infant, it wouldn't really change the chances of Republicans taking her seat. The election has nothing to do with it. 

I do think that there is a lot of meat to these accusations. Certainly a judge thought so, and its important to note that it was a DC federal judge that signed off on this. Given the political fallout from this investigation, it seems unlikely that a federal judge would sign a warrant if there wasn't a very good chance that evidence would be found. DC Judges are generally opposed to President Trump and his efforts and if there was a way to block it, it would have been done. 

It seems very likely that Omar was lying about her age when she filed for citizenship. Lying to get citizenship is a serious crime and continuing to do so for the rest of her life means she can be charged. Continuing to lie about it is what will screw her over, if she had simply stopped lying and updated her documents, the fraud would have had its statute of limitations expire, just like the claims she married her brother. 

Can it be proven? Omar claims her documents were lost during the civil war in Somalia. That seems plausible but it's possible that some documents have surfaced or someone is willing to testify to her true age. What I do know is that the standard of evidence for a criminal trial is going to be a lot higher than the standard for a judge signing off on a warrant. 

So what happens if Omar is convicted? Well, it's very possible that she would be denaturalized. But the standard for doing so is extremely high, even higher than for a criminal conviction. Denaturalization is fairly uncommon and when it does happen, it doesn't necessary mean she will be deported. Indeed, the process could take so long that it's very possible that the political winds could change. I would say that denaturalization is unlikely and deportation is even more so. 

Though the investigation is into Omar's immigration status, I do wonder if this raid will find evidence of other criminal activity. Omar is knee deep into a Somali community in Minnesota that is infested with fraud. There have been unproven allegations that she was involved with the fraudulent daycare facilities. I would be more surprised if she wasn't involved in some kind of criminal activity.  

The United States has threatened to end Ukraine's armament program if they do not agree to stop hitting Russian energy.

 

A 2S22 Bohdana self propelled artillery piece firing in Ukraine. Reuters. 

The United States has threatened to end Ukraine's armament program if they do not agree to stop hitting Russian energy. Reuters. Both officials in Kiev and Europe have confirmed that the United States is pressuring Ukraine into ending the attacks on Russia's energy production. In addition to ending the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), the United States is also threatening to end intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The report comes after an energy deal between Russia and the United States and an announcement of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine that has not been confirmed by either party. 

My Comment:

Very interesting developments in the Russia Ukraine conflict. Clearly something has shifted to the point where there is a lot of heavy pressure on Ukraine to give up their attacks. First there was the Russia energy deal which will lead to a lot of Russian diesel getting sent to the United States. Then there was Trump's announcement about the energy ceasefire. And Trump even said that Ukraine needs a new President. 

Clearly something has gone with the Trump Zelensky relationship. Not that it has always been steady in the first place, they have had some very serious spats before. But I almost wonder if it is broken now as, so far as I remember, I don't remember hearing Trump saying that he wanted Zelensky gone. 

So what happened? I am guessing that there is a very different idea of what Ukraine should be doing. Ukraine has been hammering Russia's oil refining and exports lately. That has increased gas prices globally, which Trump doesn't like. Trump has likely told Zelensky to knock it off and it seems like Zelensky hasn't listened. 

And I happen to agree with Trump. It's another example of the Zelensky regime trying to get headlines instead of actually improving battlefield conditions. They are sticking to the insane idea that somehow Putin will be overthrown if the economy gets bad. That makes zero sense given that the Russian people seem to understand that this war is existential. They aren't going to give up the war just because a few oil refineries are hit. 

It's also an almost criminal use of these resources. Attacking oil refineries isn't really going to change the battlefield conditions at all. Instead of attacking ammo dumbs and airfields, they are attacking energy production. They aren't hitting the front line troops and the supply lines that supply them. It's not going to win them the war or even help their troops in the fight.  

This is an effort to force the Ukrainians to course correct. Trump is worried about high gas prices and wants to do what he can to lower the prices. And he is sick and tired of Zelensky causing more problems for him. The threats are the stick. 

But I think the energy ceasefire is the carrot. It's getting cold in Ukraine and pretty soon it will be winter. Russia has been targeting their energy production for almost two years now. Ukraine managed to survive in 2025 because of the mild winter and the fact that they still had some good air defenses. I don't think they can depend on that in 2026 and it might be a very rough winter for Ukraine if they can't keep the heat on. 

I also don't think that the energy ceasefire is really going to happen though. Keep in mind, it's not just Zelensky that is pushing for the energy war, it's Europe. They still want Putin gone and their goal is regime change and they still somehow thinking that Putin will be removed. They aren't going to give that up anytime soon. 

And Putin has little reason to go along with it either. They have suffered some economic damage, to be sure. But he does want to keep up the pressure. I do think that Putin does want to improve relations with Trump so I think they will be more likely to go along with things for awhile, especially after the energy deal. But long term, I think that they will probably end up restarting the strikes after Ukraine continues their strikes. 

I do think that it's very possible that Ukraine gets cut off in the short term at least. I don't think this means that Ukraine will be totally cut off in the long term. Trump is already facing some whining for his deal with Russia and I am guessing totally cutting off Ukraine would be politically difficult. But a temporary pause is more than possible if Ukraine won't play ball. 

The Pentagon says that the Fort Hood shooter, Nidal Hasan, will be executed publicly by firing squad.

 

Major Nidal Hasan. AP/police handout. 

The Pentagon says that the Fort Hood shooter, Nidal Hasan, will be executed publicly. AP. Hasan, who was a Major in the US Army, launched a terror attack at Fort Hood that left 13 people dead and 32 others injured. The execution would be viewable on a livestream for members of the general public and the method of execution will be by firing squad. Making the execution public and the plans to broadcast it are controversial. Supporters say it will bring much needed transparency to the death penalty, especially after a botched execution in Tennessee where Christina Pike survived. Opponents say the method of execution is too brutal and that broadcasting it is disturbing. Regardless, it is unclear if the execution will happen on its scheduled date. Hasan could file an appeal, though there is not any indication that he wants to, as he has said that he feels an execution would count as martyrdom in his Muslim faith. 

My Comment:

I am not at all certain that this will even happen. Though Nidal Hasan is unlikely to appeal at this point, by all accounts, he wants to die, it's possible some judge somewhere could rule that executing him publicly is unconstitutional. That seems pretty unlikely, I don't think anyone but Hasan and his lawyers would have standing, but I also have very little trust in the legal system right now. And it's possible that Hasan's commitment to "martyrdom" is as strong as he says it is. It's very possible he changes his mind and a writ of habeas corpus could be filed, which would delay things considerably. 

Still, I think it's very possible that this could happen. Hasan might not want to appeal this and could want his death to be public. He is a devout Muslim of course and he launched his attack for Jihad. He might think his execution will get him into heaven. I'd say there's a very good chance that he won't appeal. 

The method of execution is controversial, but I don't really understand why. From what I understand, the firing squad is the most reliable method. It's the only American method that has never been botched, unlike lethal injection, like the Christina Pike case shows. And if the shooters are at all competent, death is almost instant, with little relative suffering. It hasn't been the standard for execution in the military, the last one was in 1961 by hanging, but it was commonly used in World War II for both enemy spies and cases of desertion. 

I think most of the objection is that a firing squad is a more bloody and violent method of execution compared to an injection or gas. I tend to disagree given how quick it is, but I can at least understand the argument. 

However, if it was just a firing squad execution very few people outside of determined opponents of capital punishment would care. But the decision to make the execution public is going to be hugely controversial. America hasn't done a public execution since 1936, and it has never been broadcast. Doing so would certainly be different. 

The bleeding heart argument is that it's humiliating to Hasan and not befitting to human dignity. I don't agree given that he murdered 13 people and betrayed not only his government, but his comrades in arms. There are other objections to be made. I do wonder if children will be prevented from watching it. Honestly though, as someone who watched enough World War II documentaries, I have seen executions on TV before and I don't think it affected me in any way. Though I would guess the execution will likely have some kind of age verification. 

I think the arguments for this being broadcasted are strong. I do think that transparency for capital punishment is something we should have always been doing, and even many death penalty opponents agree. I also think that sending a message is important. I generally think half the problem with Islamic terrorism is that our enemies don't take us seriously at all. They see weakness in us because we don't do these kinds of things. In their world, hiding an execution is cowardice (though not as cowardly as not executing anyone at all). If you don't believe me I am sure you can see plenty of ISIS and al-Qaeda murders. 

Politically, this might be a mess. I do think that this could "scare the normies" a bit and turn a few people off from the GOP. I can see this playing fairly poorly with women especially. On the other hand, I have seen many accounts on social media that were otherwise unhappy with the Trump administration ecstatic with this move, to the point where folks who were planning on sitting out the midterms will actually vote for Republicans now. My guess is that it will likely end up as a wash. 

As for my thoughts, I am in favor of this. Hasan's actions were unforgivable and execution is a deserved punishment for his actions. Broadcasting it is unusual but I do think it's important to publish it. I have never been very comfortable with how much secrecy there has been around execution in this country and I also think it sends an appropriate message to the terrorists. 

FBI arrests 18 year old man of Somali descent for plot to attack the Mall of America.

 

File photo of the Mall of America. AP.

The FBI has arrested an 18 year old man of Somali descent for a plot to attack the Mall of America. AP. Sheikhdoon Abdullahi Mohamud was arrested after purchasing an AK style rifle and 200 rounds of ammo from a federal agent. Mohamud had expressed interest in returning to Somali to fight for al-Shabaab but was unable to afford travel expenses. Instead, he devised a plot to attack the Mall of America and wanted to kill between 30 and 60 people. Mohamud is a descendent of Somali immigrants and is an US citizen. Tens of thousands of people of Somali descent have moved to Minnesota and many of them have been charged for supporting or committing terrorism. 

My Comment:

It's still crazy that so many of these would-be terrorists fall for these FBI stings. You would think it's obvious that the guy that wants to sell you a rifle so you can commit a major terror attack is probably a fed, but apparently it is not. Again, I am thankful terrorists are so stupid. 

That doesn't mean this man wasn't dangerous. Had he simply gotten a low paying job in a few months he would have enough money to buy actual weapons and could have pulled off an attack. Hell, Somali Americans are capable of getting all kinds of government aid and he could have even used that to fund an attack. That this didn't happen is lucky. 

Would an attack have gotten the 30 to 60 casualties with what he had? Probably not. 200 rounds is not much and it didn't seem like he had any training or experience with weapons. And the Mall of America? It's kind of a hard target. It has a large security force and a permanent police presence and I am guessing that he probably would have gotten one magazine off before he was killed. That still could have resulted in multiple casualties, but, regardless, his plan was not a good one. 

What is concerning is that this is not the first time someone of Somali descent has attempted a plot like this. Indeed, it's fairly common. Islamic radicalization is very common in Somalia and it stands to reason that it would disappear once the people came to the United States. And this incident fits the patter where a 2nd generation person ends up radicalized.  

It does seem like bringing in all these Somalians has backfired rather badly for Minnesota especially. They have a huge fraud problem there, largely due to the Somali community and the people that empower them and there is also the terrorism threat. I do expect both of those problems to continue in the future...