France riots and protests continue. Is the situation serious this time?

 

The historic city hall in Limonges France burns. Fox News/AFP/Getty.

Major riots have continued over the weekend in France. Fox News. The current round of protests started in September, officially over poor conditions in France's schools. France has a long history of protest movements, but the country was shocked by the damage and looting taking place in this round. Most notably, a historic city hall in Limonges was destroyed during the riots. The loss of the city hall is irreplicable, given the historic art integrated into the building. Police report over 1800 people arrested throughout France. French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the violence, but was spotted at a Celine Dion concert. 

My Comment:

Folks are rightly concerned about these riots. France, of course, has a long history of riots and protests. The level of violence here is a lot more than folks are used too. 

Generally speaking, riots and protests in France usually don't target much beyond unlucky cars and the police. This time though? A lot of small businesses got looted, even some homes were targeted. And the loss of the city hall in Limonges is a major cultural loss. That is fairly new. Indeed, this reminds me a lot of the 2020 riots in the United States, where it was clear that it was more about destroying things than actually protesting.

But does this mean France is doomed? Well, no. Indeed, just like 2020 in the United States, it could mean that the the violent left is at their peak and new leadership could calm things down, especially if the right wing wins, as they are predicted to do. Antifa is a spent force here in the United States and it's just because law enforcement actually attempted to do something about them. There is no reason why Macron's replacement couldn't do the same thing. 

Speaking of Macron, him being at a Celine Dion concert instead of running the country while the worst of the riots were going on. To be sure, that is a terrible look. Macron is a lame duck, to be sure, but he should at least act like he is still in charge. 

I will also say that the riots tend to follow the same pattern as the 2020 Black Lives Matter riots did here in the United States. In short, the peaceful protesters are acting as cover for the black block antifa militants, the Muslim extremists and the normal criminals that are doing all the damage. It's a pattern that has been repeated time and time again. 

That doesn't mean that there protests are completely invalid though. France is in a rough spot to be sure. Their unemployment is high, their GDP is lower than their debt and the country is facing major issues with demographic changes. It's clear that France will have to tighten the belt at some point but that's the last thing people who are struggling want to here. 

Regardless, I think this situation would be better had France done something about their large immigrant community. Much of this violence is coming from Muslims, be they citizens or recent migrants, and that is entirely a self-inflicted wound on France. Should those people be deported, France would still have problems, most notably with the black block antifa types, but the problem would be a lot less severe. 

Either way, I don't think this is in any way the "end of France" like so many people are saying on social media. Indeed, this is only slightly worse than the status quo ante for them, protesting is a national sport and riots are very common. If we see Macron dragged out into the streets, yeah, then we can worry France is falling. But until then? I don't see it happening. 

An attack at an elementary school in Oregon was stopped by an armed civilian.

 

Police gather at Silver Rail Elementary School in Bend Oregon. BBC/Reuters.

An attack at an elementary school at Bend Oregon was stopped by an armed civilian. BBC. The attacker was a 16 year old armed with a "long gun" (a pump action shotgun in some reports). The attacker fired into a pickup truck before using his weapon to break into the school. He then opened fire killing three children and a teacher. However, an armed citizen, who reportedly had a CCW permit, was able to follow the suspect and kill them before any further deaths occurred. Details of the shooter, their motivation and their identity as well as information about the civilian who stopped them is unavailable at this time. 

My Comment:

As is tradition when a mass shooting occurs but does not help the Democrats, we do not have much information about this shooter or the person who stopped them. Such information will eventually be released but right now I won't speculate too much on the identity of the shooter or their motivations. 

What is clear that this situation, tragic as it was, could have been dramatically worse. The security at this school failed. The attacker was able to break in with his firearm and once that happened there was no longer a line of defense. 

I do question reports that this was a shotgun. Video has been posted, supposedly by the owner of the truck that was shot up. The bullet holes seem like they were from a long-rifle, not a shotgun. And given the number of bullet holes in the truck, it's possible that this was a semi-auto rifle instead. I guess it's possible that the attacker was skilled and was using a shotgun loaded with slugs, but that seems unlikely for what is almost certainly a stolen weapon.

Video taken by a person whose truck shot multiple times by the Silver Rail Elementary School shooter in Bend, Oregon. https://t.co/5likBe02By

— grey 🫐 (@imactuallyhugee) October 16, 2026

 

Regardless, I do think that the person who confronted the shooter and put them down is a hero, obviously. Not only did he confront an armed attacker, he did it in a blue state where doing such things is illegal. Guns were barred at this elementary school, and in theory, the civilian could face charges for his actions. That would be extremely unlikely, especially in Central Oregon which is more politically diverse than Portland. But by the letter of the law, the civilian violated the law. They ignored the law and did the right thing anyways. 

Unfortunately, I don't think Oregon will loosen gun laws after this attack. Indeed, it's a lot more likely that more restrictive gun laws could be put into place. Those laws will probably ban the very actions that ended this attack. I just have zero faith in a far left state like Oregon to do the right thing here. 

I do think that media coverage for this attack will fade very quickly into the background. It's damaging to the Democrats gun control narrative and unless there is some angle they can hang onto, this case will likely disappear unless the gun rights community refuses to let it go. There's a possibility there is some other angle that will emerge, due to the lack of information about the suspect, but I am guessing this attack will be forgotten in a week. 

President Trump faces a difficult decision in Yemen due to Saudi Arabia's difficulties dealing with the Houthis.

 

Houthi rebels. CBS News/Houthi handout. 

President Trump is facing a difficult decision due to Saudi Arabia's difficulties in dealing with the Houthi rebels in Yemen. CBS News. The Houthis have been effective in battle, taking over the west coast of Yemen and launching major strikes across Saudi Arabia. An American Citizen was killed in one of their strikes on Saudi infrastructure, during an attack on King Khalid International Airport. Trump warned the Houthis on social media, saying he was "looking at" striking the Houthis. However, strikes may be unlikely for many reasons, most notably the midterm elections. For their part, the Houthis have vowed to not blockade the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to any ships that aren't Saudi Arabian. The Saudis, however, have pushed America to launch strikes. Current support from the United States has been limited to intelligence sharing, targeting info and some limited logistical support. 

My Comment:

One thing is clear, unless something major changes, like a blockade being launched by the Houthis, or American interests being targeted directly, we won't see any action in Yemen until after the midterms. Trump would pull the trigger if the facts on the ground force his hand, but as of this writing, that is not the case. I don't think a fresh conflict with Yemen would move the needle at all in the midterms, anyone who would otherwise support Trump and would be upset over a foreign policy move probably isn't voting in the first place. 

But a fresh conflict would likely increase oil prices and that is something Trump is extremely focused on right now. Indeed, it's so important that he's actually, finally, pressuring Ukraine to stop attacking Russia's oil facilities. President Trump does face a difficult choice in how to handle this because there are few chances to avoid higher prices regardless. 

I am guessing he is going to try and thread the needle. Trump's threats are probably an effort to remind the Houthis that they signed a peace deal with the United States and attacking US interests, indirectly, could damage things. The Houthis say they don't want war with the United States and that is mutual, but if Saudi energy infrastructure is hit or more American citizens get killed, their words don't much. I am guessing this is Trump's way of pressuring them to stick to military targets and not launch attacks against civilian targets like airports. 

This is also a message to the Saudis. America essentially refused their call to war, which is awkward because the Saudis are a critical US ally. We are helping them, but we have not joined the conflict like they would have liked. This message is saying to the Saudis that they haven't been abandoned completely and that the US will help to at least try and get the Houthis to not target things like airports and oil production. 

The Yemen conflict has been consistently annoying and dangerous, and much of that is due to the Saudis themselves. They have not been effective in fighting the Houthis despite their obvious tech and military advantages. Most critically, they lashed out against their UAE allies who were actually effective in controlling the Houthi rebels. Everything went bad after they did that, and it's a major reason why the Houthis are currently winning the war. 

Of course, the Saudi demands for action won't actually do too much to end the conflict with the Houthis. They have proven resilient and though American air strikes could help, they would not do much to actually end the threat. Remember, we have struck at the Houthis before, as recently as last year, and it hasn't really changed their capabilities. What is actually needed is ground forces to fight the Houthis directly, and the chances of America doing that are approximately zero. If things really go horribly for the Saudis, it's possible US airstrikes could change things, but as bad as things are for the Saudis, that's not where they are now.  

Keep in mind that the US is still recovering their weapons stocks after the Iran conflict, which isn't actually over. If there was a peace deal with Iran in place, it wouldn't matter too much, we still have large stockpiles of weapons, but the Iran conflict was high intensity. We are low on missile interceptors, certain missiles and other weapons and it would push our resources to be involved with potentially two conflicts at once. 

So what's my take? I don't see us joining the Houthi conflict. It's extremely unlikely before the midterms, but even after it, I don't see it happening. Like I said, the Houthis could screw it up if they declare a blockade and or kill a bunch of Americans, but they have little incentive to do so and major incentives to not do so. Trump's comments are most likely saber rattling an nothing more. 

Representative Ilhan Omar's home raided in immigration fraud investigation.

 

Representative Ilhan Omar. New York Post.

Representative Ilhan Omar's home was raided in an immigration fraud investigation. New York Post. A federal judge signed off on the warrant. The investigation is likely due to accusations that Omar was 18 or 19 when she applied for citizenship while claiming she was 17. Though the statute of limitations would have run out years ago, the fact that Omar still claims she was born in 1982, instead of 1981. If those allegations are proven, Omar could be denaturalized and possibly deported. The investigation is not believed to be related to claims that her 2nd husband, Ahmed Elmi, was her brother. Sources say that those accusations are moot as the statue of limitations ran out years ago. 

My Comment:

Omar and her defenders are saying this is political given the timing of the raid three weeks before the election. I have to say that I don't buy it. Omar's district is so safe that I think if video came out today of her eating an infant, it wouldn't really change the chances of Republicans taking her seat. The election has nothing to do with it. 

I do think that there is a lot of meat to these accusations. Certainly a judge thought so, and its important to note that it was a DC federal judge that signed off on this. Given the political fallout from this investigation, it seems unlikely that a federal judge would sign a warrant if there wasn't a very good chance that evidence would be found. DC Judges are generally opposed to President Trump and his efforts and if there was a way to block it, it would have been done. 

It seems very likely that Omar was lying about her age when she filed for citizenship. Lying to get citizenship is a serious crime and continuing to do so for the rest of her life means she can be charged. Continuing to lie about it is what will screw her over, if she had simply stopped lying and updated her documents, the fraud would have had its statute of limitations expire, just like the claims she married her brother. 

Can it be proven? Omar claims her documents were lost during the civil war in Somalia. That seems plausible but it's possible that some documents have surfaced or someone is willing to testify to her true age. What I do know is that the standard of evidence for a criminal trial is going to be a lot higher than the standard for a judge signing off on a warrant. 

So what happens if Omar is convicted? Well, it's very possible that she would be denaturalized. But the standard for doing so is extremely high, even higher than for a criminal conviction. Denaturalization is fairly uncommon and when it does happen, it doesn't necessary mean she will be deported. Indeed, the process could take so long that it's very possible that the political winds could change. I would say that denaturalization is unlikely and deportation is even more so. 

Though the investigation is into Omar's immigration status, I do wonder if this raid will find evidence of other criminal activity. Omar is knee deep into a Somali community in Minnesota that is infested with fraud. There have been unproven allegations that she was involved with the fraudulent daycare facilities. I would be more surprised if she wasn't involved in some kind of criminal activity.  

The United States has threatened to end Ukraine's armament program if they do not agree to stop hitting Russian energy.

 

A 2S22 Bohdana self propelled artillery piece firing in Ukraine. Reuters. 

The United States has threatened to end Ukraine's armament program if they do not agree to stop hitting Russian energy. Reuters. Both officials in Kiev and Europe have confirmed that the United States is pressuring Ukraine into ending the attacks on Russia's energy production. In addition to ending the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), the United States is also threatening to end intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The report comes after an energy deal between Russia and the United States and an announcement of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine that has not been confirmed by either party. 

My Comment:

Very interesting developments in the Russia Ukraine conflict. Clearly something has shifted to the point where there is a lot of heavy pressure on Ukraine to give up their attacks. First there was the Russia energy deal which will lead to a lot of Russian diesel getting sent to the United States. Then there was Trump's announcement about the energy ceasefire. And Trump even said that Ukraine needs a new President. 

Clearly something has gone with the Trump Zelensky relationship. Not that it has always been steady in the first place, they have had some very serious spats before. But I almost wonder if it is broken now as, so far as I remember, I don't remember hearing Trump saying that he wanted Zelensky gone. 

So what happened? I am guessing that there is a very different idea of what Ukraine should be doing. Ukraine has been hammering Russia's oil refining and exports lately. That has increased gas prices globally, which Trump doesn't like. Trump has likely told Zelensky to knock it off and it seems like Zelensky hasn't listened. 

And I happen to agree with Trump. It's another example of the Zelensky regime trying to get headlines instead of actually improving battlefield conditions. They are sticking to the insane idea that somehow Putin will be overthrown if the economy gets bad. That makes zero sense given that the Russian people seem to understand that this war is existential. They aren't going to give up the war just because a few oil refineries are hit. 

It's also an almost criminal use of these resources. Attacking oil refineries isn't really going to change the battlefield conditions at all. Instead of attacking ammo dumbs and airfields, they are attacking energy production. They aren't hitting the front line troops and the supply lines that supply them. It's not going to win them the war or even help their troops in the fight.  

This is an effort to force the Ukrainians to course correct. Trump is worried about high gas prices and wants to do what he can to lower the prices. And he is sick and tired of Zelensky causing more problems for him. The threats are the stick. 

But I think the energy ceasefire is the carrot. It's getting cold in Ukraine and pretty soon it will be winter. Russia has been targeting their energy production for almost two years now. Ukraine managed to survive in 2025 because of the mild winter and the fact that they still had some good air defenses. I don't think they can depend on that in 2026 and it might be a very rough winter for Ukraine if they can't keep the heat on. 

I also don't think that the energy ceasefire is really going to happen though. Keep in mind, it's not just Zelensky that is pushing for the energy war, it's Europe. They still want Putin gone and their goal is regime change and they still somehow thinking that Putin will be removed. They aren't going to give that up anytime soon. 

And Putin has little reason to go along with it either. They have suffered some economic damage, to be sure. But he does want to keep up the pressure. I do think that Putin does want to improve relations with Trump so I think they will be more likely to go along with things for awhile, especially after the energy deal. But long term, I think that they will probably end up restarting the strikes after Ukraine continues their strikes. 

I do think that it's very possible that Ukraine gets cut off in the short term at least. I don't think this means that Ukraine will be totally cut off in the long term. Trump is already facing some whining for his deal with Russia and I am guessing totally cutting off Ukraine would be politically difficult. But a temporary pause is more than possible if Ukraine won't play ball.