The Trump administration is, again, trying to impose a $100,000 fee for H1B visas.

 

Reuters. 

The Trump administration is again trying to impose a $100,000 fee for the controversial H1B visas. Reuters. President Trump attempted to impose the fee last year, but a judge ruled it was unconstitutional as the court considered it a tax. The new effort would allow a notice and comment rulemaking demanded by the judge and would be framed as recovering costs for the Department of Homeland Security. 344,000 people were approved for H1B visas so far this year, down dramatically from a peak in 2023 with 794,000 visas sought. It is unclear if the new rule will survive lawsuits. 

My Comment:

I still say that the entire H1B visa program should be scrapped. I don't believe that any of the jobs that are held by H1B visa holders are so impossible to staff that an American couldn't be found to work them. Indeed, in many cases, Americans would love to work those jobs, especially in the tech sector. And in the few cases that there aren't we could use the other visa programs, like the O-1A, O-1B and EB-1A visas. 

But this is probably the only way we are going to get any reform on this issue, unfortunately. In theory, this would cut down the most excessive abuses in the H1B program, you wouldn't see jobs like a gas station cashier or hotel worker going to H1B visa holders. $100,000 is not chump change and would ensure that the employers couldn't staff these jobs with foreigners. 

The problem is that it's unclear what the courts are going to say. Congress does have jurisdiction over taxation. Is this new effort a tax? I am sure a left wing judge would argue so, but I would say no. The Federal government is allowed to collect fees and doing so with these visas would at least help fund immigration. But who knows what the courts will do?

What is frustrating is that the Democrats effort at lawfare have been effective. I don't really think it matters too much if the rule is just or now, the Democrats will judge shop until they find another one that will rule this new effort unconstitutional as well. And it won't get fixed until it reaches the Supreme Court. 

Regardless, even if this new rule only goes into effect for a few months, anything that reduces the number of H1B visa holders is a good thing. Like I said, these jobs should be going to Americans. There's zero reason for someone from India to take a job that an American would be very happy to have if the wage was fair. 

Syria and Israel hold high level talks after airstrikes.

 

A Syrian Soldier manning a machine gun at the disused Abu Duhar airbase. AFP.

Syria and Israel held high level talks after Israel bombed a disused airbase in Northern Syria. AFP. Israel bombed the Abu Duhar airbase in Northern Syria in an effort to deny the base from Turkey. Turkey denied it was going to take the airbase. Tensions between Israel and Turkey are high and the strikes are the most recent strike among hundreds since the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime. The talks, which was brokered by the United States and hosted by Jordan. Syria is an ally of Turkey but tensions between Turkey and Israel have left Syria in the crossfire. 

My Comment:

These talks were moderately successful. Israel and Syria seem to have made some progress, but not so much that tensions went down all that much. It does seem that Syria wants a security agreement with Israel, but the absolutely terrible relationship between Turkey and Israel is complicating things dramatically. 

Indeed, the entire incident was based on the fact that Israel attacked an airbase just because they suspected that Turkey was going to use it. If there was any real relationship between Turkey and Israel at all, then that absolutely would not happen. Indeed, we aren't even sure that Turkey was going to actually use the airbase. 

It fits a habit that Israel has fallen into. They often tend to strike first and ask questions later. It's one of the reasons why tensions are high with Turkey and in the region generally. I can understand why they wouldn't want a regional rival take an airbase that could be used to strike Israel's interests, but the evidence that Turkey was going to do so is pretty difficult to prove. 

Why are tensions so high between Turkey and Israel in the first place? It goes back to the October 7th attacks and the Gaza war that resulted. Turkey and Israel traded diplomatic insults since then, with Erdogan calling Netanyahu "Hitler" while Israel recognized the Armenian Genocide. I have to say that i think the Israelis were right, given that Hamas are terrorists and are hardly the "freedom fighters" that Turkey calls them. 

Things have gotten worse, not better, since Iran was humbled in the Iran conflict. There was a power vacuum that resulted from the conflict that both Israel and Turkey have tried to take advantage of. Both countries want to lead the Middle East and both are making major diplomatic push to do so. 

And Syria? They got caught in the crossfire. Syria is the buffer zone between the two countries. Turkey has a lot of influence over the Syrian's new former jihadist government and is arming and training them. But Israel does not want to end the progress it made by simply letting Turkey replace Iran. Israel has a long history of dealing with terror attacks coming from Syrian territory, and does not want Turkey to become the new Hezbollah. 

Regardless, it's not surprising that the Untied States is trying to ease tensions. We are in the unfortunate position of being allied with both Israel and Turkey. Israel was our partner in the Iran conflict and we provide them with billions of dollars in aid. Turkey is the largest member of NATO after the United States and is, arguably, the one with the most competent military.  

The FBI has arrested a woman for a plot to attack the New York State capitol for ISIS

 

FBI photo of the suspect buying bomb supplies from Home Depot. BBC.

The FBI has arrested a woman for a plot to bomb the New York State Capitol building for ISIS. BBC. Jessica Bowie, a 35 year old woman, had converted to Islam five years ago and pledged allegiance to ISIS. Bowie had surveilled the building several times in preparation for her attack. Bowie was going to use a Door Dash bag to smuggle a bomb into the building and she was given fake weapons and bomb making materials from the FBI before she was arrested. Bowie had a large social media presence and had been banned from several platforms for extremist statements. 

My Comment:

The actual chance of an attack happening here was pretty small. Bowie did not strike me as someone that was capable of actually planning an attack on her own and the only real way she would have been a threat is if she found an actual terrorist to pair up with. She did attempt to do that but was sold out by an FBI informant. Once the FBI was involved the chances of her actually doing something went down dramatically. 

It's another example of a stupid terrorist failing horribly. Had she simply bought a gun and waltzed into the Capitol, something bad could have happened. But she had ambitions beyond her abilities and she absolutely could not pull of the complicated bomb plot she wanted by herself. 

I don't believe she had any real ties to ISIS itself. ISIS is a shell of its former self and does not control much territory anymore. They probably would have tried to help this woman if they were able to contact her, but I doubt there were able to. They simply don't have the resources now and most ISIS related attacks these days are like this one, lone wolf nutjobs inspired by their propaganda and actions. 

I would be very interested in figuring out what on earth went wrong with Bowie. A white woman converting to Islam, walking around in a full naqab and then trying to pull off a major terror attack is unusual to say the least. If I were to speculate, I am guessing her life did not turn out the way it wanted and she was desperate for something to belong to, and she fell into Radical Islam. 

Regardless, if she wasn't a woman this wouldn't be notable. Folks that convert a religion become extreme in it so often it has a term, the Zeal of the Convert. Though that is found in many religions, it's especially true for Islam, and it's probably worth finding out why. This does happen fairly frequently after all. 

Fired Ukrainian Defense Minster calls for new elections

 

Former Defense Minster Mykhailo Fedorov. BBC/Reuters.

Fired Defense Minster Mykhailo Fedorov has called for new elections in Ukraine. BBC. Ukraine has been under martial law since Russia invaded in 2022 and President Zelensky has overstayed his term by two years. Fedorov was fired six months after his appointment and is still extremely popular. And though he hasn't said that he wants to run against Zelensky, many people are interpreting the criticism as an announcement. His criticism echoes calls from the United States and Russia for the country to have new elections. Zelensky has long avoided holding elections, citing the difficulty of doing so during a major war. 

My Comment:

I agree that elections would be difficult during an active conflict, at least at the national level. They could certainly hold local or oblast level elections in western Ukraine, which has not been affected by the war anywhere near as much as the other parts of the country. 

But nationally? It would be difficult to say the least. You would need to somehow get absentee ballots to the men on the front line. And there is the simple fact that many Ukrainian citizens have fled the country and you would have to figure out if their votes should be counted and somehow get them ballots too. Plus you would have to wonder if Russia would play along, it's hard to go to the polls if you are worried you are going to get bombed. 

With that being said, I absolutely think that Ukraine should deal with it regardless. I don't know how you can call Ukraine's current government legitimate if it's got a de jure ban on elections. Under current Ukraine law, if the country is in martial law, elections cannot be held. They just keep extending the emergency and prevent any elections. 

Keep in mind that Russia has been able to conduct elections. They might not have been the most legitimate elections in the world, but they are probably at the same level as the ones here in the United States. And Russia had many of the same issues and they were able to hold elections in 2024. We had elections in 2020 during the pandemic and also during World War II. Though I agree that elections would be difficult, both legally and logistically, they should be done regardless and I don't really buy Ukraine's excuses here. 

Regardless, I do think that this could be a bad sign for the Zelensky government. Though I tend to think this is more about Fedorov trying to make a bigger name for himself, and perhaps getting his Defense Minster post back, it is a sign that cracks are starting to form for Zelensky. Folks there aren't blindly worshiping Zelensky anymore and it's clear that his government has some major flaws. Fedorov is right, elections should be held and corruption is a massive problem for Ukraine. 

Finally, I think this is a case of too-little too-late. The problem with having elections now is that Ukraine's air defenses have crumbled. Ukraine has used up all their Patriot missiles and those are the only weapons they have that can credibly counter Russia and North Korea's ballistic missiles. This is very different from earlier stages of the war, especially in 2024 when Zelensky's term expired. But now, things would be a lot more difficult and it would require at least some kind of cease fire with Russia to pull off. 

Polling firm admits that polls in Wisconsin Democratic Primary and LA Mayor race were totally fake.

 

File photo of Francesca Hong. Fox News.

A polling firm called Median Strategies have admitted that two polls in the Wisconsin Democrat Primary and the LA Mayor race were fake as a "social experiment". Fox News. The polls had Francesca Hong in Wisconsin and Karen Bass far ahead of their opponents. However, the polling outlet said it was an experiment to see how false information could spread and then shut down their doors. Both polls ended up bein inaccurate, as Hong lost her race in the primary while Bass won by a much slimer margin. 

My Comment:

This is one of the more irresponsible things a polling outfit has done. Putting out entirely false polls is, quite frankly, disgusting. And it calls into question the very concept of polling. If there are outfits out there fabricating data, do we really have any idea of how is winning and losing our political races?

Calling it a social experiment is nonsense as well. And it is funny that the experiment failed in the Wisconsin Governor's race. From what I understand, that poll was largely ignored as larger and more reliable outlets dominated the news. 

Regardless, there were absolutely other ways to demonstrate that false information is a problem without contributing to it. Indeed, that's exactly what they did. These polls probably didn't have too much of an effect, as the Wisconsin one was ignored and the LA one only got a little coverage. But it's pretty easy to think that it could have affected things, especially in a race as close as the Wisconsin Democrat primary was this year. 

But I also think that the "experiment" excuse is probably false. This was probably a scam of some kind. What is likely is that the firm was just lazy and didn't want to do the actual work. By faking the polling results they could get attention and funding, but it fell apart when the LA Times investigated the whole thing. 

It's also possible that this was a scam based on prediction markets like Polymarket or Khalshi. Large amounts of money is bet on the results of these races and by putting out false info they could affect the odds and get a bigger payout. Given that bets can be on just about anything, even overstating a poll could cause a lot of people to place bets that they otherwise would not, so faking numbers might have been a way to increase the payouts of opposing bets. 

If this sounds like a good argument to ban these kinds of prediction markets, I would agree. I hate the incentives that the existence of these prediction markets creates and we have already seen the effects. And this could be another example, and it shows it goes far beyond just sports betting. 

Regardless, this story is going to further erode confidence in American polling this cycle. We have already seen some massive upsets, even beyond the Wisconsin race. The Michigan Senate race is another example and even tonight we saw something similar in Florida's Senate Race for the Democrats. People have already lost faith in the polls and having an outlet out and out faking results is not going to help things.