Thursday, May 28, 2026

The US has the forces in place to attack Cuba. Will It?

 

The USS Nimitz. Politico/AP.

The United States has enough forces in place to attack Cuba. Politico. The armada assembled in the region includes the USS Nimitz, along with two Amphibious Assault Ships, the Iwo Jima and the Ft. Lauderdale, are in the region, though the two ships are due to be replaced by the USS Kearsarge. Several destroyers and cruisers are deployed in the region as well. Though no signs indicate strikes, there is a time limit due to long deployments for the Nimitz, which was scheduled to be decommissioned this year. The ships in place are enforcing a de facto blockade for Cuba, which is facing heavy diplomatic pressure and a major fuel crisis. 

My Comment:

I'm going to go on record that I don't think military action against Cuba is going to happen in the short term. Long term is a different question but for right now? It's not going to happen. 

Why? The most obvious reason is that the war with Iran is still smoldering. Every day we hear news about peace talks and a deal being imminent but until there is a peace deal signed, I can't see the United States starting another conflict with Cuba. There are hopeful signs that a deal actually is close, but until that happens, any conflict with Cuba is unlikely. 

Even if the war were to end today, and that's hopelessly optimistic, it would still take weeks or even months to move forces around to actually accomplish military strikes. The fact that the Iwo Jima and Ft. Lauderdale are being withdrawn seems to show that things are moving away from a strike, not close to it. I am guessing at least one more Amphibious Assault Ship would be needed for an attack like we saw with Venezuela. 

Of course, I do think that we do technically have enough sources to attack Cuba. Cuba is not anywhere near as powerful as Venezuela was but the forces arrayed against them are roughly the same size, if not bigger. Remember, Cuba is only 90 miles away from Florida and we have significant air assets stationed there. Whatever shortfall we have in Navy assets could be made up for with our Air Force.

With that being said, there is an argument that we are burning through too much with our military operations. Starting a third military operation after a major operation in Venezuela and the closest thing to a major war we have had in a long time in Iran. Our weapons stocks were low before that, thanks to the Biden Administration wasting our weapons on Ukraine, but they are even lower now. And that's not even considering the level of exhaustion that could be setting in with our Naval forces, there have been several very long deployments for some of our most powerful warships. 

Regardless though, we have very little reason to actually attack. Cuba is in an extremely difficult position right now, they are already being squeezed by this blockade. They have had a massive fuel crisis to the point where they are essentially out. There is a very real chance that the blockade and sanctions alone could collapse the regime. It's not a huge chance, but it exists. 

There are political risks as well. The appetite for another war isn't non-existent, the Cuban community absolutely wants one, but a lot of other people do not. Starting a new conflict after ending the one with Iran could do some damage to the Republicans in 2026. Trump says the midterms aren't a concern, but I am guessing that alone will rule out military action until next year. 

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Two anti-Trump incumbents voted out in primaries.

 

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. NBC News/Getty.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn. NBC News. Paxton got the coveted endorsement from President Donald Trump after Cornyn failed to help pass the SAVE Act, which would have forced voter ID's. Paxton will face Democratic Representative James Talarico in the general election. Paxton has some controversies in the past but won an expensive primary against a well entrenched incumbent. Cornyn is the latest Republican who angered Trump and his supporters to lose a primary following Thomas Massie, Bill Cassidy, Dan Crenshaw and Brad Raffensburger. 

Congressmen Christian Menefee (left) and Al Green. NBC News/Getty.

In a race that saw to incumbent Congressmen running against each other, freshman congressman Christian Menefee has defeated Al Green. NBC News. Both men were forced to run for the same district after Texas redistricted their Houston area congressional district. Green decided to run in the 18th district after his current district, the 9th, was redrawn so that a Republican was extremely unlikely to win. However, voters in Houston decided to keep Menefee instead of Green. Green was an extremely vocal and long term critic of President Trump.

My Comment:

2026 is rapidly becoming the year where incumbents are getting voted out. Cornyn and Green are just the latest to fall. Trump can take credit for a lot of it. His endorsement was critical, had he endorsed Cornyn over Paxton, we would have likely seen a very different result. 

Cornyn was insufficiently supportive of President Trump and his agenda. Cornyn did not pass the SAVE America Act. He supported the bill, but was not willing to nuke the filibuster to do so. That was the final straw for a man who also criticized Trump for January 6th and was very slow to endorse him. 

And this was not a close race. Cornyn and his allies spent almost $100 million on this runoff and the original primary, but he lost by almost 30 points as of this writing. This just shows how powerful President Trump is in the GOP. Rumors of his political demise are certainly premature. 

I do think that Paxton is going to win the Senate race as well. Though he has had some scandals, he is in a reliably red state. He would almost certainly win against a generic Democrat. But his opponent James Talarico is a far left nutjob to the point where he even said that God was non-binary. That is not something that is going to play well in a religious state like Texas and I would be shocked if the race between Paxton and Talarico is even close. 

As for Green, it was pretty arrogant of him to run against Menefee in the first place. Moving districts, even after a redistricting, is a good way to lose, especially if the incumbent is reasonably popular. I am sure that Green thought that his comparatively higher national profile would translate well to this election, but it absolutely did not.

Age was a pretty big factor in the election as well. Green is 78 while Menefee is 38 and folks felt that Green's age was a major issue. Green didn't have too much of a future and it's very possible that he wouldn't have even survive a full 2 year term. It's no surprise that they stuck with Menefee, who was well liked, young and has a future. 

Regardless, I am very happy that Green is gone. He was one of the most annoying and disrespectful members of Congress and acted like he was more important than the President of the United States during several State of the Union speeches. Though Trump had little to do with getting rid of him, other than encouraging redistricting in Texas, he is also going to be celebrating the fact that Green is gone. 


Monday, May 25, 2026

Rumor that JD Vance might not run in 2028 for President...

 

Vice President JD Vance. Irish Star/AP.

JD Vance is considering skipping a presidential run in 2028. Irish Star. An anonymous source told the Daily Mail that the Vice President thinks he would have a better chance of winning in 2032 or 2036. Vance is a young man at 41, but if he doesn't run he would risk losing his window. Vance has been rumored to be on the outs in the Administration over opposition to the strikes in Iran and is considered to be the largest dove in the admin after Tulsi Gabbard has resigned. 

My Comment:

I've seen this story filtering through social media today and I have to say the reporting is incredibly thin, and it's even accessible. The original Daily Mail report is under a paywall so I can't even read it and supposedly Vance's people have denied this as a rumor. Given that it's an anonymously sourced post by the Daily Mail I'm inclined to agree. 

I also don't really think the implications of the Irish Star article are right either. Vance is more dovish than some of the other people in the White House, but it's not like he was totally opposed to things. Indeed, he thought if it was going to happen, we should go as hard and fast as possible, and, as far as I can tell, his plan won out. And Gabbard wasn't pushed out, she resigned because her husband has an aggressive cancer. I don't think the division over Iran was anywhere as large as people say. 

But I think it's at least possible that Vance could decide to not run in 2028. He's currently leading in most polls but that could change and it's undoubtable that Marco Rubio's star is rising. Indeed, if I had to choose between the two men, I honestly don't know who I would choose. Vance seems like he would be better for folks on the lower end on the economic spectrum, but you can't deny how effective Rubio has been. 

Vance also has a large and young family and who knows if he wants to keep exposing his family to the kind of chaos that is the White House. His wife is expecting their fourth child and there's always a chance that Vance could just decide to hang it up. 

I also think that Vance has some headwinds to face. Though Vance is white, his wife is Indian and he's good friends with Vivek Ramaswamy. That's not great at a time where racism against Indians is almost universal and H1B visas are one of the most toxic topics in the country. He also doesn't seem popular among women for whatever reason. He has some vulnerabilities that could lead him to conclude that it's not worth it to run now. 

Still, all of that is speculation at this point. I think this story is probably bunk and that Vance hasn't decided either way. Campaign season doesn't even start until after the 2026 midterms and a massive amount of change can happen between now and then. 

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Angry young men in the Congo are raiding Ebola treatment facilities.

 

Workers carry away the coffin of an Ebola victim in Bunia Congo. AP.

Angry young men in The Congo are raiding Ebola treatment facilities as the outbreak there continues to grow. AP. The outbreak has 900 suspected cases and between 100 and 200 people have already died. Three treatment facilities have been attacked due to anger over Ebola prevention measures that prevent friends and families from interacting with the deceased. Ebola primarily spreads through contact with infected bodily fluids, and traditional funeral practices often spread the disease. The virus in this case is the Bundibugyo virus, which is a subvariant of Ebola that does not have a vaccine. However, the chances of a global pandemic, or even a large outbreak, are still low. 

My Comment:

Ebola is back in the news and it sure looks like we are going to see another major outbreak. Though we are far from the bad days of 2014 where there was an extremely large outbreak that even managed to reach the United States, it's very possible we could see something similar with this outbreak of Bundibugyo.

The good news is that Ebolaviruses usually don't spread via the air. Supposedly in lab conditions it's possible but you really need contact with infected blood or other bodily fluids. That means a global pandemic is almost impossible, though, just like the West African epidemic back in the day, we could see limited cases in the West due to air travel. 

Bundibugyo is also slightly different than the Zaire virus that caused that outbreak. It's generally less lethal, 25% to 50% compared to 60% to 90% or so for Zaire, and is also considered less virulent. The bad news is that unlike the Zaire virus, there is no vaccine for Bundibugyo. 

In a sane world there would be little chance of the virus spreading. Like I said, if you don't come into contact with an infected person's blood, there is very little chance of you actually getting the virus. But we don't have a sane world. 

These attacks on treatment facilities are a good example of that. This is about the worst thing you could do with this kind of pandemic. Not only are folks potentially exposing themselves to the virus, they are also preventing treatment for sick people. Those infected people now probably have a better chance of dying and infecting others as well. 

Why folks are doing that is beyond me. I know folks want to have a proper funeral, but when the bodies are tainted like this, you absolutely shouldn't use traditional funeral techniques like this. I just don't understand the anger here, I know if I was struck down by Ebola, the last thing I would want is to spread it to my loved ones. 

So should we be worried about this outbreak? Not really. It's very dangerous for the folks in Africa who are unwilling or unable to take precautions against the virus, but it's not likely to spread beyond that. There's very little chance of the virus making it out of Africa, and almost zero chance of it becoming a pandemic. It's notable given the human suffering involved and the fact that these attacks are going to make it worse, but that's about it. 

Thursday, May 21, 2026

Movie review: Will The Mandalorian and Grogu save Star Wars?

 

The Mandalorian and Grogu poster. 

As you are almost certainly aware, Star Wars has been in trouble for awhile now. Ever since Disney bought the IP from George Lucas the general consensus is that the series is on life support, if not totally dead. Whatever goodwill was gained from the purchase was first killed by The Last Jedi, utterly annihilated by Rise of Skywalker and then The Acolyte spread the ashes across the four corners of the Earth in humiliatingly woke fashion. 

"Star Wars is dead" they say, and for good reason. Disney Star Wars has been more bad than good. Sure, everyone can point to the excellent Rogue One, it's cerebral and serious TV show follow up, Andor, and the first two seasons of the Mandalorian as "Good Disney Star Wars", though there is even debate about that. And some would put the newly released cartoon Maul: Shadow Lord in that category as well. But Those three titles I mentioned before greatly overshadowed the good, to the point where a lot of folks don't care about The Mandalorian and Grogu despite it being the first Star Wars movie in seven years. Given the theater I was in was 2/3rd's empty on an opening night showing, excitement seems to be pretty low.  

Clearly Disney needed to change course and it's not surprising that they picked The Mandalorian as the template. The first two seasons were great. A space western combined with the basic premise of Japanese series Lone Wolf and Cub it immediately struck a chord with audiences, largely because of the lower stakes, the "monster of the week" format and the charming relationship between a bounty hunter and his little green alien son. 

However, it too fell into the Disney curse as the third season was not as well received. Instead of focusing on The Mandalorian himself along with Grogu, it somehow became the story of how Kara Thrace... I mean Bo-Katan Kryze, reformed the Mandalorian home world. I didn't hate it but it was a major departure from the first two seasons. It was not helped that almost two episodes of the series was buried in the otherwise dreadful Book of Boba Fett. 

Given that context it almost seems like this movie is too late. Had it been released after season 2 of the show it would have done gangbusters but now? There are rumors that this movie will flop. The real question is will anyone even care about this movie regardless of the quality?

That's not a question I am ready to answer but what I can do is say that The Mandalorian and Grogu is one of the better things Disney has done. It's obviously not at the level of Andor or Rogue One, but it might be at the same level of the first two seasons of The Mandalorian TV show. It's not a perfect movie by a long shot, but it's not offensive, it didn't fall into the woke nonsense that crippled the wider Star Wars series and it was, if nothing else, pretty fun. 

The basic plot of the movie is that the two titular characters are working for the New Republic, which replaced the Galactic Empire after Return of the Jedi, hunting down former war criminals. After a brief opening where they destroy an Imperial Warlord, the pair take a contract offered Sigourney Weaver's Colonel Ward to rescue Rotta the Hutt, who happens to be the son of Jabba the Hutt, also from Return of the Jedi. They end up fighting monsters, imperials and even enemy starships. 

It's not a super complex plot and you can pretty much guess how the story is going to go before you are through it, but it's also well done and it has a lot of fun moments in it as well. The score is well done and the puppet work for Grogu and a few other minor characters remains a major selling point. Grogu is cute little monster as always. 

This is an action movie, through and through, and as an action movie, don't expect some major plot developments for the rest of the Star Wars universe. This is a movie mostly about how the Mandalorian and Grogu are becoming an actual team and it does, refreshingly, refrain from making the stakes too high. 

Grogu is the highlight of the movie and it's good to see him grow from the rather useless prop he was in the first few episodes of the TV show into a competent sidekick himself. He's obviously not on the level of Mando, but he gets his licks in as well. It's funny that a character that is nothing more than a well designed puppet can be the core of the movie, but he is. 

What may confuse people who are casual fans at best and may not have seen any Star Wars properties since Rise of Skywalker (ugh) are the constant callbacks to other Star Wars products, mostly from Dave Filoni's cartoons and shows (the man himself makes an appearance as an X-Wing pilot). Most of the call backs are easy to miss, Zeb Orrelios works as an alien buddy even if you don't know who he is, and Embo works as a villain too, largely because of his cool design.

But the problem is that I don't know if people are going to know about Rotta the Hutt. He comes from the 2008 The Clone Wars film, which served as a pilot movie for the cartoon show, The Clone Wars. That movie was so poorly received that most people don't even remember that it's a movie, and even the fans of the Clone Wars TV show recommend skipping it (and I do as well, it was not good even if the show that followed it eventually got good). Making the third most important character of the movie a call back to an obscure on poorly received movie is certainly a choice, especially since he functioned as nothing more than a living McGuffin in that film.   

It's too bad, since I liked Rotta as a character. He's absolutely playing into the "not all X are bad" trope but it was absurdly fun to see a 1000 pound slug man as something more than a lazy and gross monster. Indeed, he's a mighty gladiator and it's hilarious to watch him fight. I didn't know I needed to see a ripped slug man beating the utter crap out of gladiators, stormtroopers and monsters, but it turns out I did. Sure, the concept of a good character from an otherwise evil species isn't anything groundbreaking, but it's at least well executed here and he's probably the funniest character in the film.

Other highlights have to include some of the fun fight scenes, with the gladiator fights being a highlight for me. And, unlike a lot of Disney Star Wars, they actually remembered that there should be space battles, well at least atmospheric ones, where starfighters are blowing each other up. The film also had some genuinely funny moments, most of them coming from Grogu. 

Most of the humor derives from him or the other tiny aliens running around doing things that are inherently funny for a 2 foot tall creature to do. It's not deep humor and it might fall flat for some people, but I liked it. I also have to say that the creature, ship and location design was very good as well. It absolutely feels like Star Wars, but also feels like what is here isn't a rehash of what came before, things have evolved a bit, still recognizable but new and different. 

A lot of folks were worried that the movie was going to be woke, and that seems to largely overblown. I think Disney finally realized that nobody wanted to see a coven of lesbian space witches or a legacy character from the Original Trilogy humiliated because they are the wrong race and gender. The closest thing to wokeness is the racially diverse starfighter squadron and Weaver's Colonel Ward and both of them are entirely forgivable and feels a lot more like 1990's style race and gender blindness than box checking. If that's the tier of wokeness these days, then it's clear the culture has changed to a much more tolerable level. For toning this down alone the film deserves praise. 

What is strange to me is how uneven the CGI is in this movie. Some of it is breathtakingly good, especially the starfighter scenes in the beginning where they are flying into the sunset. But the opening scene where the Mandalorian steals a mini walker and rides it down a cliff looks shockingly bad and would have been embarrassing in the TV show, let alone the 1st movie in the Star Wars series for seven years. The Hutts in the film occasionally look bad too, but they are wisely mostly left in gloomy locations which helps them play a bit better.

Acting is also another weak point. Sigourney Weaver seemed to be phoning it in, though given how little she has to do (she's basically Mando's boss) that's not a surprise. Pedro Pascal is ok, but he too doesn't have too much to do in terms of actual acting, almost all of his scenes are action scenes, and I am guessing most of that was a body double. If you go into this film expecting to see acting on par with something in Andor, or even the Original Trilogy, you will be disappointed, but it's also not on the same level as some of the bad acting in Star Wars films we have seen before. I'd put it on par with what you see in the TV show though. 

My last major criticism is pacing. The films opening and first two acts are extremely fast paced and rarely give you a chance to breath. There's only a few quiet non-action scenes and the film could slow down a bit. But then in the third act there is a section where the pace crawls to an absolute stop. Grogu basically plays Minecraft in the swamp for what feels like a third of the film, though realistically it was probably 10 minutes or so. Either way, the pacing is absolutely off and it's my biggest criticism of the film.  

There are a few other nit-picky things that I didn't care for. I do have a problem with the fact that of the dozens of enemies the pair face, only a few of them are actual threats. Stormtroopers continue the tradition set in Return of the Jedi where they are more of comic relief than an actual threat and it's not like the majority of the battle droids in the third act are any better. The same could be said with the starfighter battles as only one ship on the hero's side is shot down, and that was at least partially on purpose. At least the monsters, the giant battle droids and Embo give Mando a fight. This is a huge problem with Disney Star Wars and I do think they need to bring back some mook tier villains that actually pose a threat to the heroes. 

The other nit-picky thing is that I genuinely don't like Pedro Pascal. You only catch a glimpse of him in this movie. There is a brief period in this movie, (which isn't a spoiler because it was spoiled in the trailers) where he is without his helmet and my honest reaction was "ugh, this guy, again". Pascal is an annoying person politically and he's very much overexposed and if you have difficulty separating art from the artist you are forgiven if you want to skip this movie, though, to be fair, the advantage of Mando almost always wearing his helmet is that you forget he's even playing him. 

So what's the final verdict for me? This was not a perfect movie by any stretch. But given the extraordinarily low expectations I had for it, I was presently surprised. It felt like an hour and a half version of season 1 episode of the TV Show, and that's actually fairly high praise. I probably put it right on the line between "actually pretty good" and "mediocre" with the scale tipping to the former, not the latter, mostly because I genuinely enjoyed the space fights and big chungus gladiator Rotta. 

It's probably the 2nd best Disney Star Wars movie, after Rogue One of course, and I put it above all three of the sequels by a large margin. I might even put it ahead of the two weaker Prequel movies, The Phantom Menace and The Clone Wars, as those two films had even bigger problems with pacing. I guess that means I put it in the upper mid tier then as far as Star Wars movies go, and I will probably watch it again when it comes onto Disney Plus. 

Would I recommend it? That really depends. I think general audiences might like it as a dumb popcorn movie, though they might be a little lost. Fans of The Mandalorian and Star Wars in general should see it as a decent addition to the canon, though not without flaws. But I also don't think it will be good enough to win back the former fans that Disney lost with the absolute crap they put out since the bought the IP. I'd say see it if you are curious or are a genuine fan of The Mandalorian TV show, but either skip it or catch it on Disney Plus in a few months if you aren't. 

Will it be enough to save Star Wars? I honestly don't know. I didn't see it with anyone else and didn't stick around to listen to what other people are saying. The critics were tepid in their support of it, but the Rotten Tomatoes score for viewers was a lot higher. Good word of moth might be enough to save the film, but I still think there are just too many former fans that gave up on Star Wars for good after the sequels and The Acolyte for it to be a big success. 

Either way though, I do think it's a positive direction for the Star Wars series to go in. I had been saying for awhile that the series needed a lower stakes romp that had as little to do with the sequels as it could and this film does that. And it was genuinely refreshing to see a movie with almost zero wokeness. Perhaps Disney will really be able to turn Star Wars around, especially if the next movie, Ryan Gosling's Starfighter, is well received as well.