Fake polling has affected the 2026 midterms.

 

Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow says she dropped out of the Senate race due to a fake poll. Politico/AP.

A polling outfit has admitted that its polls were faked, throwing doubt into the 2026 midterms. Politico. Wedgewood Polls said that they were doing an "experimental project" to show that an "entirely fabricated" polling firm could sway public opinion. There is evidence that these polls had an effect, as they were cited by outlets like New York Times and Politico. Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow claimed on X that the fake polls directly affected the Senate race in the state. After the poll showed she was down to single digit support, funding dried up, and Mallory said the poll "killed us". It is unclear what Wedgewood was attempting to accomplish. 

Just before this poll hit, the Mitchell poll that also showed me in single digits hit. That poll was bullshit - and our team proved it. It was an open SurveyMonkey link that people were able to send around to friends and take multiple times. We expended a lot of capital (and took a serious risk) - calling it out as bullshit. MIRS ultimately declined to publish it because of shoddy methodology. But then this one hit immediately after. It was a one-two punch. Then all of the sudden it was a pattern - and people believed it had to be true. It killed us. These were some of the absolute worst days on the campaign. Especially for my team. There are no words to explain the morale blow, and nothing I could do or say to my team to fix it. Just an excruciating, nauseating blow. By that point, we took a risk and we spend our money. We put our ads up. They were working. But the damage was done. And I was drowned out by outside spending and the narrative that we had completely collapsed.

— Mallory McMorrow (@MalloryMcMorrow) October 21, 2026

My Comment:

The 2026 election remains one of the most difficult to predict and the fake polling is a major reason why. And this isn't even the first time this happened this cycle! There was another fake outlet that was propping up Francesca Hong in Wisconsin, earlier in the year. Given that polls are already unreliable and have underestimated Republicans dramatically in previous years, I wouldn't be surprised if the "blue wave" ends up a blue trickle at best and a GOP trifecta at worst. 

Regardless though, this fake polling is obvious really bad. If McMorrow is right and her funding dried up due to bad polling that had little basis in reality, that's not a good thing. She might have lost anyways, but she didn't get a fair shot. I don't have a dog in that race, I generally consider all Democrat candidates to be equally bad, but it's bad for the Republic if fake polls are deciding who gets elected and not the voters themselves. 

There is a lot of speculation as to why these polling firms have been faking their data like this. It's not an issue of them being lazy, they are doing this on purpose. Democrats are saying this could be some kind of pied piper strategy to boost progressive candidates which will be easier to beat in November. I don't think Republicans are that stupid or that smart.

My guess is that both cases were out and out scams. It wasn't a social experiment, it was an effort to rig the prediction markets. Prediction markets are legalized gambling and bets can be placed on anything. My guess is that these polls were trying to shape the outcome of races so they could place bets on the outcome and make easy money. Indeed, they wouldn't even have to vote on the outcomes, they could just vote on the polling average, while their own polls could skew them. It's a pretty good scam and I wouldn't be surprised if that is what this is about. 

It's another reason why I am getting more and more opposed to online gambling and prediction markets. Letting folks bet on everything from their living room is bad enough, but with these prediction markets out there, there is now an incentive to fudge reality until you get the outcome you want. It's not just sports, where there are now constant rumors of play being disrupted, but our very elections. 

I am not one to call for regulations, but honestly, these fake polling firms are pretty much begging for them. They are effecting the outcomes of elections and that's not acceptable. Regardless of the motivations, putting out fake polls is a bad thing. And while they are regulating things, they should regulate prediction markets as well, or, better yet, ban them entirely. 

President Putin has agreed to resume three way talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States to attempt to end the war.

 

President Vladimir Putin (right) with US Envoy Steven Witkoff. Reuters. 

President Putin of Russia has agreed to three way talks including Ukraine and the United States. Reuters. Putin released Stephan Hubbard, an American citizen held in Russia, as a gesture of good will. The Kremlin said the talks could occur next month in Abu Dhabi, which has hosted previous talks this year. Those talks were not productive and did not end the war. Putin also offered help to try and end the war in Iran and offered up another meeting between himself, President Trump and President Xi Jianping of China. It is unclear if Putin or Zelensky are willing to compromise on their various war goals and actually end the war. 

My Comment:

The good news is that at least Putin and Zelensky appear willing to talk. That hasn't been the case for most of the year, after the previous rounds of talks fell apart. Their positions were too far apart and neither side was willing to give up anything to end the conflict. 

Has anything really changed since then? Not really. The battlefield largely remains a stalemate. Russia has made gains, but Ukraine has retaken some territory as well. Both sides have taken major damage but neither side appears to be near an actual collapse which would actually incentivize a deal. Ukraine is closer than Russia, they have lost most of their air defenses, have major energy concerns, and have a major recruitment problem. But both sides could continue the war for at least another year.

What could happen is an energy ceasefire. President Trump tried to ram through one earlier this month, which both sides immediately violated, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. Russia would obviously benefit from their oil refineries being damaged and Ukraine would benefit from keeping whatever energy infrastructure they have left running. It would be a low cost way to make things better for each side. 

But for a greater peace deal? I just don't see it. Putin still hasn't achieved his goals for the Special Military Operation. At the very least, I would expect him to demand the remaining territory he has demanded that he has not yet captured. And I don't see him agreeing to any security agreement for Ukraine.

Zelensky, for his part, has backed down a bit from his demands. He has at least said that he would accept freezing the war where the lines are now, but hasn't gone beyond that. That's better than his previous demands where he not only wanted Russia to withdraw from the territory they conquered, but to give back Crimea as well! The big demand though is a security agreement that would have article 5 triggers, which Putin would never accept, and has not agreed to give up claims to the territory they lost. 

Regardless, ending the war is going to be a long process and the more both sides talk the better it is. I am not expecting an end to the war this year, but it's very possible that it could end next year. A negotiated settlement is the most likely outcome, though I haven't ruled out a collapse of Ukraine's military. It will be a cold winter after all, and much of Ukraine's energy systems have been destroyed. 

Did Vivek Ramaswamy just torpedo his chances to win Ohio's governor's race?

 

Amy Acton in Ohio. AP.

Vivek Ramaswamy (R) released an extremely controversial advertisement targeting his opponent Amy Acton (D) in a hotly contested Governor's race in Ohio. AP. The advertisement featured Acton's birth mother, Donna Arthur, who claimed that Acton lied about claims of living in poverty as a child. However, Acton was estranged from her mother after her Stepfather was arrested and indicted for sexually abusing her as a 12 year old child. Arthur stood by the stepfather, Cledith Arthur, and fled with him after he jumped bail and lived as a fugitive from justice until his death in 2004. Acton's father won custody and she has been estranged with her mother since then. Ramaswamy's campaign eventually took credit for the advertisement and will broadcast it as well. The ad has been condemned by figures on both the left and right. 

My Comment:

This is one of the biggest own goals I have seen in a political race in recent history. It's right up there with Biden's debate performance or Michael Dukakis riding that tank. I just have no idea what Ramaswamy is thinking here and why he thinks this is going to somehow help his campaign. Indeed, at this point, if I lived in Ohio I would not vote for him. I wouldn't vote for Acton either, but I just don't think that someone with political instincts this bad should be governor. 

Though Arthur didn't directly say that Acton lied about her abuse, the implication was there. And I have little doubt that she was abused. To be fair, the case was never tried in court, but the fact that Cledith Arthur fled the state instead of facing charged, living as a fugitive until he died, is a strong argument that it happened. And the case was strong enough that an indictment happened. Plus, Acton's brother, corroborated her story. It's a much stronger case than, for example, the Cornel 7 incident. I would say that the allegations are more likely than not to be true, and that's a hell of a thing to risk a campaign on! 

And even if the allegations were false, so what? It's ancient history at this point and digging it up to score some political points is not going to play well. It's such a personal issue that wasn't really a factor in anything to begin with, that it risks giving Acton sympathy that she wouldn't otherwise deserve. Yeah, you might get some points if you could absolutely prove that she is a liar, but that didn't happen here! But even if it had, it's still incredibly ugly. 

But the allegations seem true, so that makes this look even worse! Donna Arthur does not strike me as someone that should be trusted and the allegations are, at the very least, credible. So this just looks like an extremely low move for a campaign that looks desperate. It's going to turn a lot of people off and I would not be surprised if Acton wins because of it. 

My objection here is that he's platforming someone who may have done something worse than lying about a sexual assault. Donna Arthur, by all appearances, let her husband molest her daughter and instead of protecting her, she stood by him. If that's what happened, she's an evil person. And, by my accounting it seems more likely than not that's exactly what happened! And Ramaswamy is using that to try and win an election. 

I'm generally bullish on the GOP in 2026, at least compared to the polls, but the Ohio Governor's race was always primed for an upset due to Ramaswamy. Keep in mind, Ramaswamy had an uphill battle, largely because he picked a fight with MAGA over immigration. His famous crashout on X turned off a lot of folks that might otherwise support him. Plus, he is persona non grata among the Groypers for his race alone. I didn't like the guy after his New Year's crashout on X and I really wish he hadn't even run in the first place.

Candidate quality was always the problem in this race. Ramaswamy should have never won but the only other guy in the race was Casey Putsch, who famously also had a massive crashout on X. I actually had Putsch respond to me directly when I criticized both men for not being credible candidates, and honestly, knowing what I know now, I think I should have boosted him instead. Putsch was a bad candidate with bad political instincts, and I totally disagreed with him on subjects like Israel and the Epstein files, but I don't think he would have done this. Indeed, he claims he would not and went so far to endorse Acton. He would have been a terrible governor and would have likely lost to Acton too, but at least he wouldn't have done this. 

I do think this is probably the end of Vivek Ramaswamy's political career. I don't see this advertisement helping him at all, and it will indeed hurt his chances. Again, it sure looks like he was pulling an extremely low political stunt and gives Acton ammo for being a better person than he is. I don't see how he recovers from this (unless the stunt somehow works) and any talk of him being a presidential candidate in 2028 are DOA.

My real concern is that Ramaswamy is so toxic that he could drag other Republicans down with him. Ohio has a competitive Senate race as well, and this could turn enough voters off that Jon Husted could be dragged down with him. That was always an objection I had to Ramaswamy, but it could even extend beyond Ohio. If I was the Democrats I'd run ads nationally about what Ramaswamy did here, and my guess is they might.

Ukraine claims world's first drone medical evacuation.

 

Screencap of the medical evacuation. NBC News/Ukrainian handout.

Ukraine has conducted the first known medical drone evacuation. NBC News. A video was released showing a wounded soldier from Ukraine's 92nd Separate Assault Brigade strapping himself into a harness and then being evacuated by a heavy duty hexacopter bomber drone. Ukrainian forces resorted to the new evacuation method due to the battlefield being heavily mined and large Russian drone activity. The Russia-Ukraine war has launched advances in drone technology and countermeasures. 

My Comment:

A rare good story from the Russia-Ukraine war and one that will likely be repeated frequently in the future, and not just by folks involved in the conflict. This is an advance that will likely save soldiers and may even have civilian applications. In short, it's actually pretty good news.

First of all though, we should note that this has some pretty obvious limitations. Obviously, the evacuee has to either be conscious and capable of strapping themselves in, or have someone with them that can do it for them. Obviously, this would also be an evacuation of last resort, given the obvious danger of the drone failing or the straps not being attached correctly. If a failure happens the evacuee could be further injured, or more likely, killed by falling. 

With that out of the way, this could lead to a lot of lives being saved on the battlefields of Ukraine, especially if the Russians adapt the technique as well. Given the dominance of drones and the use of minefields, evacuation of wounded soldiers has been extremely difficult. Traditional evacuation methods, like helicopters and wheeled and/or tracked vehicles are extremely vulnerable in the modern battlefield and put a lot of people at risk. Sending an expendable drone limits the risk and can get to places that vehicles can't get to. Sure, there is a chance that the drone could be destroyed by an enemy drone as well, but at least in that case, you only lose one person, not a whole medical team and a driver or pilot. 

This is obviously very useful in Ukraine. In both the static trench fights and the more mobile small unit actions that are dominating the war, soldiers are often cut off and without much support. A drone like this can get to those men if they get wounded and evacuate them successfully. 

It's also possible that similar drones could be used some day for civilian search and rescue missions. These drones could potentially reach places that helicopters could not reach. Again, it would be a method only suited for the last resort, but it could be used to evacuate people who could not otherwise be saved. It would likely be several years before the technology advances to the point it could be used in civilian rescues, but it does look like this might be the future. 

There is a darker side of this as well. The other possibility is that fully armed soldiers could some day in the future use these heavy drones as an alternate way to launch airborne assaults. Much like Hamas used paragliders to launch the October 7th attack, future terror groups or even armies could use these kinds of drones for the same thing. 

France riots and protests continue. Is the situation serious this time?

 

The historic city hall in Limonges France burns. Fox News/AFP/Getty.

Major riots have continued over the weekend in France. Fox News. The current round of protests started in September, officially over poor conditions in France's schools. France has a long history of protest movements, but the country was shocked by the damage and looting taking place in this round. Most notably, a historic city hall in Limonges was destroyed during the riots. The loss of the city hall is irreplicable, given the historic art integrated into the building. Police report over 1800 people arrested throughout France. French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the violence, but was spotted at a Celine Dion concert. 

My Comment:

Folks are rightly concerned about these riots. France, of course, has a long history of riots and protests. The level of violence here is a lot more than folks are used too. 

Generally speaking, riots and protests in France usually don't target much beyond unlucky cars and the police. This time though? A lot of small businesses got looted, even some homes were targeted. And the loss of the city hall in Limonges is a major cultural loss. That is fairly new. Indeed, this reminds me a lot of the 2020 riots in the United States, where it was clear that it was more about destroying things than actually protesting.

But does this mean France is doomed? Well, no. Indeed, just like 2020 in the United States, it could mean that the the violent left is at their peak and new leadership could calm things down, especially if the right wing wins, as they are predicted to do. Antifa is a spent force here in the United States and it's just because law enforcement actually attempted to do something about them. There is no reason why Macron's replacement couldn't do the same thing. 

Speaking of Macron, him being at a Celine Dion concert instead of running the country while the worst of the riots were going on. To be sure, that is a terrible look. Macron is a lame duck, to be sure, but he should at least act like he is still in charge. 

I will also say that the riots tend to follow the same pattern as the 2020 Black Lives Matter riots did here in the United States. In short, the peaceful protesters are acting as cover for the black block antifa militants, the Muslim extremists and the normal criminals that are doing all the damage. It's a pattern that has been repeated time and time again. 

That doesn't mean that there protests are completely invalid though. France is in a rough spot to be sure. Their unemployment is high, their GDP is lower than their debt and the country is facing major issues with demographic changes. It's clear that France will have to tighten the belt at some point but that's the last thing people who are struggling want to here. 

Regardless, I think this situation would be better had France done something about their large immigrant community. Much of this violence is coming from Muslims, be they citizens or recent migrants, and that is entirely a self-inflicted wound on France. Should those people be deported, France would still have problems, most notably with the black block antifa types, but the problem would be a lot less severe. 

Either way, I don't think this is in any way the "end of France" like so many people are saying on social media. Indeed, this is only slightly worse than the status quo ante for them, protesting is a national sport and riots are very common. If we see Macron dragged out into the streets, yeah, then we can worry France is falling. But until then? I don't see it happening.