The FBI has arrested a woman for a plot to attack the New York State capitol for ISIS

 

FBI photo of the suspect buying bomb supplies from Home Depot. BBC.

The FBI has arrested a woman for a plot to bomb the New York State Capitol building for ISIS. BBC. Jessica Bowie, a 35 year old woman, had converted to Islam five years ago and pledged allegiance to ISIS. Bowie had surveilled the building several times in preparation for her attack. Bowie was going to use a Door Dash bag to smuggle a bomb into the building and she was given fake weapons and bomb making materials from the FBI before she was arrested. Bowie had a large social media presence and had been banned from several platforms for extremist statements. 

My Comment:

The actual chance of an attack happening here was pretty small. Bowie did not strike me as someone that was capable of actually planning an attack on her own and the only real way she would have been a threat is if she found an actual terrorist to pair up with. She did attempt to do that but was sold out by an FBI informant. Once the FBI was involved the chances of her actually doing something went down dramatically. 

It's another example of a stupid terrorist failing horribly. Had she simply bought a gun and waltzed into the Capitol, something bad could have happened. But she had ambitions beyond her abilities and she absolutely could not pull of the complicated bomb plot she wanted by herself. 

I don't believe she had any real ties to ISIS itself. ISIS is a shell of its former self and does not control much territory anymore. They probably would have tried to help this woman if they were able to contact her, but I doubt there were able to. They simply don't have the resources now and most ISIS related attacks these days are like this one, lone wolf nutjobs inspired by their propaganda and actions. 

I would be very interested in figuring out what on earth went wrong with Bowie. A white woman converting to Islam, walking around in a full naqab and then trying to pull off a major terror attack is unusual to say the least. If I were to speculate, I am guessing her life did not turn out the way it wanted and she was desperate for something to belong to, and she fell into Radical Islam. 

Regardless, if she wasn't a woman this wouldn't be notable. Folks that convert a religion become extreme in it so often it has a term, the Zeal of the Convert. Though that is found in many religions, it's especially true for Islam, and it's probably worth finding out why. This does happen fairly frequently after all. 

Fired Ukrainian Defense Minster calls for new elections

 

Former Defense Minster Mykhailo Fedorov. BBC/Reuters.

Fired Defense Minster Mykhailo Fedorov has called for new elections in Ukraine. BBC. Ukraine has been under martial law since Russia invaded in 2022 and President Zelensky has overstayed his term by two years. Fedorov was fired six months after his appointment and is still extremely popular. And though he hasn't said that he wants to run against Zelensky, many people are interpreting the criticism as an announcement. His criticism echoes calls from the United States and Russia for the country to have new elections. Zelensky has long avoided holding elections, citing the difficulty of doing so during a major war. 

My Comment:

I agree that elections would be difficult during an active conflict, at least at the national level. They could certainly hold local or oblast level elections in western Ukraine, which has not been affected by the war anywhere near as much as the other parts of the country. 

But nationally? It would be difficult to say the least. You would need to somehow get absentee ballots to the men on the front line. And there is the simple fact that many Ukrainian citizens have fled the country and you would have to figure out if their votes should be counted and somehow get them ballots too. Plus you would have to wonder if Russia would play along, it's hard to go to the polls if you are worried you are going to get bombed. 

With that being said, I absolutely think that Ukraine should deal with it regardless. I don't know how you can call Ukraine's current government legitimate if it's got a de jure ban on elections. Under current Ukraine law, if the country is in martial law, elections cannot be held. They just keep extending the emergency and prevent any elections. 

Keep in mind that Russia has been able to conduct elections. They might not have been the most legitimate elections in the world, but they are probably at the same level as the ones here in the United States. And Russia had many of the same issues and they were able to hold elections in 2024. We had elections in 2020 during the pandemic and also during World War II. Though I agree that elections would be difficult, both legally and logistically, they should be done regardless and I don't really buy Ukraine's excuses here. 

Regardless, I do think that this could be a bad sign for the Zelensky government. Though I tend to think this is more about Fedorov trying to make a bigger name for himself, and perhaps getting his Defense Minster post back, it is a sign that cracks are starting to form for Zelensky. Folks there aren't blindly worshiping Zelensky anymore and it's clear that his government has some major flaws. Fedorov is right, elections should be held and corruption is a massive problem for Ukraine. 

Finally, I think this is a case of too-little too-late. The problem with having elections now is that Ukraine's air defenses have crumbled. Ukraine has used up all their Patriot missiles and those are the only weapons they have that can credibly counter Russia and North Korea's ballistic missiles. This is very different from earlier stages of the war, especially in 2024 when Zelensky's term expired. But now, things would be a lot more difficult and it would require at least some kind of cease fire with Russia to pull off. 

Polling firm admits that polls in Wisconsin Democratic Primary and LA Mayor race were totally fake.

 

File photo of Francesca Hong. Fox News.

A polling firm called Median Strategies have admitted that two polls in the Wisconsin Democrat Primary and the LA Mayor race were fake as a "social experiment". Fox News. The polls had Francesca Hong in Wisconsin and Karen Bass far ahead of their opponents. However, the polling outlet said it was an experiment to see how false information could spread and then shut down their doors. Both polls ended up bein inaccurate, as Hong lost her race in the primary while Bass won by a much slimer margin. 

My Comment:

This is one of the more irresponsible things a polling outfit has done. Putting out entirely false polls is, quite frankly, disgusting. And it calls into question the very concept of polling. If there are outfits out there fabricating data, do we really have any idea of how is winning and losing our political races?

Calling it a social experiment is nonsense as well. And it is funny that the experiment failed in the Wisconsin Governor's race. From what I understand, that poll was largely ignored as larger and more reliable outlets dominated the news. 

Regardless, there were absolutely other ways to demonstrate that false information is a problem without contributing to it. Indeed, that's exactly what they did. These polls probably didn't have too much of an effect, as the Wisconsin one was ignored and the LA one only got a little coverage. But it's pretty easy to think that it could have affected things, especially in a race as close as the Wisconsin Democrat primary was this year. 

But I also think that the "experiment" excuse is probably false. This was probably a scam of some kind. What is likely is that the firm was just lazy and didn't want to do the actual work. By faking the polling results they could get attention and funding, but it fell apart when the LA Times investigated the whole thing. 

It's also possible that this was a scam based on prediction markets like Polymarket or Khalshi. Large amounts of money is bet on the results of these races and by putting out false info they could affect the odds and get a bigger payout. Given that bets can be on just about anything, even overstating a poll could cause a lot of people to place bets that they otherwise would not, so faking numbers might have been a way to increase the payouts of opposing bets. 

If this sounds like a good argument to ban these kinds of prediction markets, I would agree. I hate the incentives that the existence of these prediction markets creates and we have already seen the effects. And this could be another example, and it shows it goes far beyond just sports betting. 

Regardless, this story is going to further erode confidence in American polling this cycle. We have already seen some massive upsets, even beyond the Wisconsin race. The Michigan Senate race is another example and even tonight we saw something similar in Florida's Senate Race for the Democrats. People have already lost faith in the polls and having an outlet out and out faking results is not going to help things. 

President Donald Trump seems to be reaching out to North Korea for a diplomatic win.

President Trump shakes Kim Jong Un's hand on a TV in South Korea. Reuters. 

President Donald Trump seems to be reaching out to North Korea in search of a diplomatic win. Reuters. Trump made a major diplomatic push during his first term to try and warm relations with North Korea, which remains a pariah state. However, Trump appears to be renewing focus on North Korea now. He has scaled back US participation in a major military drill with South Korea, due in part to their refusal to help with the Iran conflict. Trump and Kim Jong Un do have a respectful relationship and both men claim to understand each other. North Korea is in a better negotiating position, due to an economic boom from participating in the Russia-Ukraine war. 

My Comment:

I speculated yesterday that Trump's canceling of the exercise with South Korea had less to due with South Korea and more to do with North Korea. Given Trumps statements about Kim Jong Un, I think that is the case. South Korea did anger the United States by not helping in Iran, given that they too have an interest in keeping the oil from the Middle East flowing, but it's really not about them, that much. 

The cynics are saying that this is just a ploy to get some positive media coverage for Trump ahead of the midterms. There is probably some truth to this, a diplomatic win would probably be helpful for Republican chances in November. But I also don't think that's the only factor. Trump wanted a deal during his first term, and if 2020 had gone different, he probably would have gotten one. He also seems to genuinely like Kim Jong Un, and he has a good relationship with him. 

Kim Jong Un has good motivation to at least talk to Trump. Doing so would be a win for him too, largely because it would give him quite a bit of prestige and legitimacy. It would also bring some predictability to the relationship between the United States and North Korea, which is a major concern. 

The problem is that North Korea really is in a good position right now. Their participation in the Ukraine war has been an absolute economic boom for them, funneling billions of dollars into their economy. They have sold billions of dollars worth artillery shells and missiles and are getting paid for every soldier they deploy in Russia to help defend the country from Ukrainian attacks. 

This means that Trump and Kim Jong Un will probably meet each other as equals and any diplomatic deal will have to be limited in nature. Getting rid of North Korea's nuclear weapons are not a realistic goal for Trump if they do meet. However, a test ban, an official de jure end to the Korean war and/or a ban on missile tests in exchange for sanctions relief could be a real possibility. 

I do think that this is a positive thing. Korea has been a tinderbox for far too long and ratcheting down the temperature again would be useful. Indeed, it was something that should have been done during the Biden administration, but Korea was just yet another issue that Joe Biden was out to lunch on. I don't think a major deal is likely, but any kind of talk is a positive. 

 

Pentagon downplays reports of bad conditions on USS Abraham Lincoln.

 

The USS Abraham Lincoln. Fox News/Reuters.

The Pentagon has downplayed reports of bad conditions on the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has set modern records for length of deployment. Fox News. The Lincoln has been deployed for 260 days in support for the Iran conflict  and has faced allegations of plumbing issues, supply shortages and even crew members threatening to jump off the ship. However, the Pentagon says that the Lincoln's mental health issues are among the lowest in the carrier fleet. CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper said that many of the issues that had been reported, like the plumbing issues and food quality, have been fixed for some time. Long sea deployments are challenging, Cooper claims, but credited the ships petty officers for focusing on mental health. The Lincoln is now heading back to port and will be replaced by the USS George Washington. 

My Comment:

For context, in World War II, the USS Essex was deployed for 495 days and participated in several massive battles, including the battles of the Philippines Sea, Leyte Gulf, Iwo Jima, Okinawa and Operation Ten-Go, the Japanese attack that ended with the destruction of the Yamato, the biggest battleship ever made. Other carriers and other US Navy ships faced similar lengths of deployment overseas.

Marines and Soldiers might be confused by the complaints as well. In Vietnam the US Army required a 12 month deployment while the Marines faced a 13 month one. And in Iraq and Afghanistan? The Army still required a 9 to 12 month deployment while the Marines often did 6 to 9 months. And unlike the Lincoln, they faced enemy fire and extremely poor conditions. I know if I had the choice of where to serve, I'd rather be a Sailor on the Lincoln over a Marine or Soldier any day of the week. 

That isn't to denigrate or downplay the service of the Sailors and Marines, they have conducted their deployment with honor and do have my praise. But context is important and it's clear that folks are exaggerating just how bad things are. Indeed, the people deployed on the Lincoln are mostly likely just griping. 

Did the Lincoln have issues during this deployment? Of course. From what I understand the plumbing issues were serious and the did have to operate at a high during the Iran conflict. And by modern standards the deployment is long, 9 months at sea is longer than the modern US Navy is used to. Though the ship never came under fire, carrier work is dangerous and so is just going to sea. The air wing especially had a high tempo deployment and I bet they need a break. 

Are there mental health problems on this deployment? Sure, but that's true for every military deployment. Indeed, folks go postal or harm themselves during leave and on base as well. Are they worse than normal because of the long deployment? CENTCOM says otherwise and it's very possible they are right. 

I think the real difference now is that Sailors and Marines are able to contact home very easily. I guarantee that the USS Essex had similar issues during it's 495 day deployment but the general public never heard about it because they didn't have any way to contact home other than highly censored mail. Now anyone on the Lincoln can call their parents and gripe and many of those parents don't really know the reality of deployments. 

Has the Trump administration handled this well? Not really. Trump put his foot in his mouth, as he is wont to do, by saying the deployment should be even longer, which the media, of course, latched onto. I kind of see his point, I doubt that the USS George Washington would be pulled out of the Pacific if it wasn't for this bad press, but it's not something he needed to say. 

I do think there is something to be said for the fact that we only really have three carriers deployed right now, the Lincoln, the Washington and the Bush. The other eight are in port, either being repaired, upgraded, refueling or in training. I know that having large numbers of ships down for those reasons, but that seems like a lot. Usually we have 2-4 deployed but given the active conflict with Iran, you would think that more of them would be deployed.