Deal to end Iran war signed early in diplomatic breakthrough.

 

President Trump signs the deal as French President Emmanuel Macron watches. New York Post.

The deal to end the Iran War has been signed early in a diplomatic breakthrough. New York Post. President Trump signed the deal at the Palace of Versailles in France as he was dining with French President Emmanuel Macron. President Pezeshkian of Iran also signed the document today, bringing an official end to the war. It is unclear why the deal was signed early as there had been plans to sign the document on Friday. The document lifts sanctions against Iran and opens the strait in exchange for Iran giving up its nuclear weapons program and enriched Uranium. 

NBC News has more information on what the deal contains. Both sides have agreed to meet diplomatically over the next 60 days to hammer out the details and sign a 2nd, more detailed document. The Strait of Hormuz will open immediately (after mine clearing operations finish) and there will be no fees charged for the next 60 days. Iran will surrender their enriched uranium and allow inspectors but details still have to be worked out. A $300 billion investment fund has been authorized though the United States will not contribute to it and the fund would take the form of sanctions relief for development projects. The one sticking point remains Lebanon, given that Israel was not a party to the negotiations and may continue their attacks on the country. 

My Comment:

Everyone expected a deal to be signed but I don't think too many people were expecting the deal to be signed today instead of Friday. They had even scheduled a ceremony and everything. All of that is canceled now and folks are wondering why. 

Some of this is due to just wanting this thing done with. Opening the Strait of Hormuz will lower gas prices along with fertilizer. Doing it now instead of Friday makes it that much quicker to clear the mines and open the Strait for the roughly 2500 ships that are trapped trying to get in and out of the area. Getting commerce going to will help the world economy a great deal and should lower gas prices dramatically in the United States. 

I think it also had a little to do with where Trump was today. He was in France for the G7 meeting and doing it in front of French President Emmanuel Macron shows respect to our French allies and will likely have an effect on the G7 members getting on board with the peace deal. Plus, President Trump is known for his sense of pageantry and signing it at Versailles is absolutely that. 

But I think this was primarily about Israel. Israel was not a party to these talks and this is almost a separate peace. Indeed the Israelis are furious, mostly because Lebanon was included in the deal. They also wanted regime change, and didn't think that killing two sets of leaders of Iran really counts. Netanyahu almost derailed the whole thing before the first memo was signed and it was only President Trump yelling at Netanyahu that righted the ship. 

By signing the deal now Israel risks losing their last and best ally if they decide to continue to bomb Lebanon or Iran. There may have even been plans in place for strikes before Friday's signing and by signing it today, Trump may have prevented Israeli interference in the deal. Launching strikes now aren't entirely impossible for Israel, but doing so would have much more severe consequences now. 

As for the deal itself, it's fine. America got it's main war goal. Iran will give up their nuclear material and their program along with ensuring inspections so it won't come back. Iran is getting some stuff too, but the most criticized portion, the $300 billion development fund, is not being paid by the United States. Other local states are paying for it, and that will given them even more leverage over Iran to play ball. 

FBI disrupts terror plot targeting UFC event on White House lawn.

 

Two rifles found by the FBI. Fox News/DOJ.

The FBI has disrupted a major terror plot that was targeting the UFC event held at the White House over the weekend. Fox News. The plot was complex and had multiple participants. It would have involved drone attacks on the event and then rifle attacks on survivors. The suspects had gathered weapons but had not secured the drones or explosives. However, the plot fell apart after one of the suspects mothers became concerned about her 19 year old son's behavior. She contacted the FBI who arrested her son and four other conspirators for the plot. 

My Comment:

It's unclear how far along this plot was. I think the portion about the drone attack is oversold. From what I understand they were unable to get the explosives. However, five guys armed with rifles could have done a lot of damage, even given the extreme security. They would likely have been shot and killed by Secret Service snipers, or even Capital Police, but they could have killed and wounded some people. 

Though the plot wouldn't have been as bad as the attackers wanted, it was a hugely dangerous plot. Had Tycen Proper's mother not turned him in, there was a very good chance this plot would have gone forward in some fashion. It might not have targeted the UFC event, the plot seemed like it was rushed, but I am guessing there would have been bloodshed. 

Keep in mind that President Trump was in attendance of this event and it might have been yet another assassination attempt. It would not have succeeded without the drones, but it was a genuine threat. I've lost track of how many attacks Trump has faced now but this is yet another one. 

The politics of this situation doesn't really match up with the right wing or left wing. These folks were accelerationists. They want America to fall and for it to be replaced with something else. It's a naive and stupid worldview as it would involve a whole lot of deaths of innocent people. And there was no guarantee that whatever comes next would be any better than what we have now. 

It's also clear that they were pretty deep in the conspiracy theory weeds. They seemed to be motivated by whatever popular conspiracy theory of the day was, in this case, data centers, Jeffrey Epstein and Israel. None of those neatly map onto the right or left, so this seems like something different.

It's not the first accelerationist attack either. There's a disturbing number of people that think we can't really vote our way out of our problems anymore. I'd even say they have a point if they are talking about Europe, but in the United States it's fairly baffling. In my view, things are absolutely changing for the better, not only by my standards, but by the standards of the accelerationists as well. It's an ideology that doesn't make much in the way of sense. 

President Trump announces a deal to end the Iran War.

 

President Donald Trump. New York Post/AP.

President Trump has announced a deal to end the Iran War. New York Post. Iran has confirmed the deal. Both sides are planning on signing a deal on Friday in Switzerland. The breakthrough was brokered by Pakistan. Though details are scarce, Iran has agreed to get rid of their enriched Uranium in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blockaded by both sides of the conflict. The deal was briefly put into jeopardy after Israel bombed targets in Lebanon, but Trump was able to keep the peace process going in spite of the attack. Trump was reportedly furious with Israel for the attack. 

My Comment:

How optimistic should we be that this deal will actually end the war? The ceasefire already fell apart once so it's very possible that it could happen again. However, this is as close as we have gotten and there is a lot of reason for optimism too. 

The biggest problem is Israel. They weren't really consulted on this and the whole thing is dependent on them not attacking Lebanon. The bombing before this deal was made almost derailed the whole thing and I would not be surprised if it wasn't deliberate to derail things. 

Israel has different interests in Iran than the United States. The US wants to end the nuclear threat but Israel wants to go beyond that and go full regime change. That's despite the fact that Iran kind had a regime change. Certainly much of their leadership died in the initial strikes and even more died in the 2nd round last week. But I am not sure that Israel will accept the terms of this deal if it leaves Iran's Islamic government in power. 

The other factor that could derail it is Iran's IRCG. They have derailed it in the past and it's clear that the secular Iranian government does not have full control of their IRCG counterparts. The government is trying to frame this as a victory for them, so the IRCG might accept the deal. But if it does fall apart, they are the most likely reason why. 

However, things might actually work out. The war has to end at some point and it's clear that Iran's probably not going to get a better deal than they are getting now. This deal isn't one sided, they get an end to the war and some financial assistance as well.    

And it has to be noted that Iran's military has largely been destroyed. Iran's Navy is nothing but a bad memory and all they really have left for a surface fleet is a bunch of powerboats. The rest of their military is in somewhat better shape but they have lost most of their offensive and defense capabilities. They could continue the conflict, in theory, but they would not last long before a collapse. 

It really was one of the most one-sided military conflicts in American history. Iran was mostly unable to do much to the United States. We only took light casualties, and though we lost some equipment, it was nowhere near what the Iranians lost. 

So do I think this deal will work out? I think it's about a 75% chance of doing so. I think there is about a 15% chance of Israel screwing everything up for us and a 5% chance of the IRGC doing so as well, along with a 5% of chance of something else happening. Fingers crossed that it works out. 

UK Defense Secretary resigns due to lack of funding for the military

 

UK Defense Secretary John Healey. NBC News/Getty.

The Secretary of Defense of the United Kingdom, John Healy, has resigned, citing a lack of funding for the military. NBC News. Healey was followed by Al Carns, another senior figure in the Defense Department. Both men complained that Keir Starmer's plan to fund the military fell well short of what the United Kingdom needs, citing international threats. Starmer had said he would increase funding to 2.5% of GDP by next year and 3% by 2035. Healey was considered a strong and competent minster and his resignation is a serious blow to Kier Starmer's leadership. 

My Comment:

The resignation of Healey, and to a lesser extent, Carns and other figures in the Starmer government is a very bad sign for Keir Starmer. Starmer was already in trouble for many other reasons, but having to deal with his defense minster essentially calling his plans unworkable is a very bad sign for him. 

Indeed, it's like the rats are fleeing a sinking ship. Starmer has been in trouble for awhile now, especially after last months local elections ended with Labor taking massive damage. He is one of the least popular world leaders in Europe and that's really saying something. 

Even Labor says that it's very likely that Starmer's government will face a vote of no confidence fairly soon, in a few months at most. There's a very good chance that Starmer will be unable to right the ship and I would be very surprised if he was still in power by the end of the year, perhaps even the end of Summer. 

As for Healey's complaints, they are correct. The UK's military is a joke. Their Navy was unable to send their carrier to the Strait of Hormuz because they simply didn't have any escorts. They still have the carriers and a nuclear submarine fleet, but the rest of their surface fleet is a joke. And it damaged their relationship with the United States, I don't think President Trump forgave them for not helping in Iran. 

But it's not just the Royal Navy that has problem, the Army isn't much better. They only have 75,000 regular troops, which is basically nothing, and around 150 tanks. In a hypothetical war with Russia, for example, that would be a drop in the bucket compared to Russia's military, or even Ukraine's for that matter. It's a far cry from what they had during World War II, and even the ad-hoc fleet that won the Falklands Islands war would be more formidable than what they have now. 

All of this is in the context of yesterday's post where Northern Ireland is burning because the immigration problem. I don't think Healey resigned because of the unrest, but it shows another reason why funding for the military is so important. Indeed, if a new round of The Troubles happens again, this time focused on immigration, the UK is entirely unprepared for it. 

Chaos in Belfast after the attempted decapitation of a deaf special needs man.

 

A burnt out car in Belfast. Fox News/Getty.

Chaos has erupted in Belfast Northern Ireland after the attempted decapitation of a deaf special needs man by a Sudanese immigrant. Fox News. The attacker, Hadi Alodid, attacked the victim, a 40 year old man, with a knife. Shocking video showed the man repeatedly stabbing his victim, who lost at least one eye in the attack. The video went viral and spread outrage and two nights of protests, arson and chaos have resulted from the attack. The suspect crossed the border with Ireland and was granted a five year asylum. Attackers burned homes that they believed were occupied by immigrants and clashed with cops. The incident comes on the heels of another major immigration related outrage in the UK, where an immigrant falsely claimed that his murder victim was a racist and the police believed it. 

My Comment:

Some context is probably necessary. This attack occurred in one of the roughest areas in Northern Belfast in the Catholic New Lodge neighborhood and the Protestant Tiger's Bay neighborhood. During The Troubles it was one of the areas with the heaviest casualties. Though the conflict is over, the neighborhoods are still divided and there are a lot of young men on both sides in paramilitary organizations. It's a major reason why this blew up so badly. 

These areas have been hit hard by immigration. Like I said, it was a rough neighborhood to begin with and that means that it was cheap to live there so a lot of immigrants did. They brought crime, higher prices and competition for jobs that hurt a neighborhood that was already in trouble. There was widespread, and justified, anger over immigration even before this attack. 

But the brutal and senseless nature of this attack was a major factor as well. The victim in this case was a 40 year old man who was already either deaf or mostly deaf and he had some other issues as well. He was described as special needs, a nice man that had some problems and had even tried to help Alodid when he moved in. 

Alodid returned his kindness with one of the more brutal attacks caught on video. I won't post it here but he is shown stabbing his victim in the neck, face and eyes and showing no remorse of it. If it wasn't for the heroic actions of bystanders, his victim would be dead. But even now, his quality of life won't be much, he lost at least one eye and it's still an open question if he will ever see again with his 2nd eye. Unless he recovers his sight, what kind of life can he even lead after this as a deaf and blind man? Attacking him and leaving him in this state was an act of unimaginable cruelty.  

As for the riots and attacks, it seems like they are very targeted. This isn't the chaos we saw in 2020's George Floyd riots, which targeted basically everyone. These attacks are specifically targeting the folks they are angry at, the immigrants and the police, rather than the general public. 

There is also quite a bit of support for the actions of the rioters. The usual voices are obviously condemning it, but a lot of folks are to the point where they think the UK can't fix things through voting anymore. More folks don't support the arson and violence, but are sympathetic to the cause and angry about immigration. 

My guess is that this will fizzle out, probably in a couple of days. I could see it lasting through the weekend though. But will the anger last longer than that? I am not sure. 

What I am sure is that the UK is heading to a very dark place. Voters no longer feel they can get what they want, less immigration, through voting. There has been some change, the rate of immigration is slowing down under labor, but it doesn't help with the millions of immigrants already there. Immigration has slowed, not stopped and the people in the UK aren't getting what they really want, deportation and remigration. 

Could we see some kind of civil conflict? It's certainly possible in Northern Ireland. The Loyalists and Nationalists still have some organizations, though finding weapons would be difficult. We could certainly see some kind of 2nd troubles, though this time with both sides now allied against the migrants and the government. 

But things could conceivably get even worse. Conflict outside of Northern Ireland is possible as well. Folks are absolutely tired of these kinds of murders, the grooming gangs and the endless stream of migrants, legal and otherwise. And there is even a small chance of an actual civil war. The next elections will be critical, hopefully Nigel Farage and his Reform Party will sweep and they will bring real change...