The US military buildup near Iran is one of the largest in recent history.

 

The USS Gerald R. Ford. AP. 

The United States military build up near Iran is one of the largest in recent history. AP. Two carrier strike groups, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford, along with over 100 land based planes, including F-22's, F-35's, F-16's and F-15's have been deployed. The fleet, consisting of 16 ships including destroyers and littoral combat ships, is larger than the 11 ships that were involved in the Venezuela operation. It is notable that there has not been any major deployment of offensive ground troops, but units have been deployed to defend US bases in the region. The deployment has occurred while high stakes talks between Iran and the United States continue. 

My Comment:

It's certainly a huge force assembled near Iran. 16 ships is a huge deal and the strike power of one carrier strike group is more than anything the Iranians can field alone, let alone two of them. Not to mention the 100 combat planes in the region, along with the awesome firepower of our B-2 bombers. This force is more than strong enough to destroy what is left of Iran's air defenses and air combat power, already devastated by the Iran-Israel war. 

However, will those weapons actually be used? Talks are still ongoing and both sides are reporting progress, though no deal has been made. There are some obvious sticking points, most notably the demand that Iran give up any nuclear production capability while Iran wants to keep the ability to make some nuclear production for use in medical and power generation. 

But I don't think these sticking points are as critical as folks are making it out to be. There may indeed be the ability for one or both sides to compromise and a deal where both sides get what they want. Iran could keep a token program for medical use only and I think the United States will agree with that. 

Iran could misread things though. They could think that Trump is weak domestically and may not wish to risk the midterms over a war in Iran. That would be a mistake. Like I said, this force is more than capable of destroying Iran's defenses and could threaten the regime directly. And Trump has shown that while he is willing to use military force if negotiations fail, just like he did in Venezuela and, of course, the Iran-Israel war. 

I do think that Trump wants to make a deal. Of course he does, it's Donald Trump! His whole personality is about making deals and the Iranians would be smart to recognize it. All they have to do is make a better deal with Trump than they did with Obama. 

Regardless, I do think that if a war happens, it won't be a long one. Trump will either try something similar to what they did during the Israel-Iran war where they bombed Iran into the negotiation table, or they could go for a decapitation attack like they did with Venezuela. In either case, I would not expect a long war. 

Cuba kills four people in bizarre speedboat incident.

 

Havana Bay, Cuba. Politico/AP.

Cuban border forces have killed four people and captured six more in a bizarre speedboat incident. Politico. People on the speedboat fired at Cuban troops and lost a gunfight with the Cubans. A commander of one of the Cuban vessels involved in the incident was wounded as well. The United States has opened an investigation into the incident and said that the incident had no US involvement. Relations between the United States and Cuba are frosty with Cuba having been cut off from Venezuelan oil. The suspects in this incident are members of the Cuban exile community in Florida and have been accused by Cuba of being terrorists. 

My Comment:

This appears to be the Cuban exile community acting on their own. It was an extremely amateurish attempt to commit some kind of terrorist attack against the Cuban government. 10 guys with a boat and some rifles and Molotov Cocktails is not going to accomplish much more than that. 

I tend to believe the idea that the US government wasn't involved with this, mostly because of how incompetent it was. A US attempt wouldn't be 10 guys on a raid, it would be something a lot larger like the old Bay of Pigs invasion or, more likely, another Venezuela style raid. The United States would not be sending such a small force with such vague goals. 

Plus, this incident was clearly counterproductive. The Trump administration was working on a diplomatic solution towards the Cuban government. They had been cut off from Venezuelan oil and that had a massive economic impact. 

But that is going to be undone because of this incident? The Cuban government is spinning this as an American attack on Cuba. It doesn't matter that the scenario is pretty unlikely, people are going to feel like America is actually getting ready to attack Cuba. And it will give Cuba an excuse to crack down on Cuban resistance. 

I don't have a whole lot of respect for these men and what they tried to do. Attacking Cuba alone with 10 men alone is an act of madness. And like I said, it's very likely that the whole thing was counterproductive and would have been so even if they did accomplish anything. But they didn't even do that! They got intercepted before they even got to Cuba and four of them died and the rest got captured. 

So what was the goal here? I am guessing a small scale arson attack on some kind of Cuban government building. It was even possible they were trying to start some kind of larger campaign of terrorism. If so, that was a pretty stupid plan. I don't have a whole lot of respect for the Cuban military but they could and did easily handle this kind of raid. 

Mexico falls into chaos after the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel was killed in a military raid.

 

A burnt out bus used as a barrier in Mexico. BBC/Reuters.

Mexico has fallen into chaos after the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, also known as El Mencho, was killed in an army raid. BBC. The raid, which received assistance from the United States, left four members of CJNG dead and El Mencho mortally wounded. CJNG is one of the largest and most violence cartels and the violence caused in response to El Mencho's death has been extreme. Violence has broken out it in every Mexican state where CJNG has a presence. Most notably, even the tourist city of Puerto Vallarta has seen a large amount of violence between the Cartels and the National Guard. The death of El Mencho will be seen as a victory for Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, but violence after his death will be inevitable due to retaliation from the Cartel and possible infighting or other cartels trying to take advantage of the power vacuum. 

My Comment:

Looks like they found a spine in Mexico. Taking out El Mencho is more than I expected from Claudia Sheinbaum, given her leftist politics and her perceived weakness. Taking him down is a major win in the war against the cartels in Mexico. 

I am guessing this happened due to pressure from President Trump and the United States. Trump had been chomping at the bit to do something about the Cartels, to the point where military force was not off the table. Trump has made stopping the flow of migrants and drugs over the border with Mexico a major part of his Presidency and this seems like a continuation of that. 

As for the violence, it is fairly extreme. The Cartels have shut down several cities and threatened civilians, but so far seem to be sticking to fighting the military. They have set up roadblocks and have gotten into a lot of gun fights. The Mexican military has responded and even launched attacks with helicopters against the CJNG forces. 

I don't expect the Cartel-Military violence to last very long. We have seen this kind of thing before when other Cartel leaders get captured or killed. We see a few days or weeks of violence but then things get back to normal. After the Cartels are gangs, their main motivation is profit and getting into a standup fight with the military does not offer any profit and can disrupt their operations severely. 

I do expect their to be an increase of violence generally though. The CJNG cartel was held together by El Mencho and, from what I understand, there isn't a viable replacement at the moment as his son is in prison. That means that the CJNG may fracture into infighting. Not to mention that the other Cartels might try to take back territory while the CJNG are weak. 

There is a major threat right now to American civilians in Mexico. I don't expect any fighting to cross the border, but folks in Mexico are in danger. Though taking American citizens hostage or killing them during a battle would be horrible optics and could even lead to strikes against CJNG, they have their backs against the wall right now and they have very little to lose. I am hoping that the folks in Puerto Vallarta and other parts of Mexico remain safe. 

President Trump has directed the government to release information about UFO's, UAP's and possible alien life.

 

President Donald Trump on Air Force One. Politico/AP.

President Donald Trump has directed the government to release information about UFO's, UAP's and possible alien life. Politico. Trump posted on Truth Social that he was releasing the information. The order comes days after former President Barack Obama said that he believed that aliens were real, though he later clarified that he hasn't seen any evidence personally as President. Trump said that Obama may have released classified information and said that "he may get [Obama] out of trouble by declassifying". The government has long been interested in UFO's and UAP's and has released several videos of UFO's. 

Trump says Obama revealed ‘CLASSIFIED INFORMATION’ when he discussed the existence of aliens

‘He made a BIG MISTAKE’

‘I don’t have an opinion on it. I never talk about it’

‘I may get him out of trouble by declassifying’ https://t.co/uFtiSdKaH4 pic.twitter.com/OBD4KLQRcq

— RT (@RT_com) February 19, 2026

My Comment:

There is never going to be another President like Donald Trump. Let's review the sequence of events. Barack Obama says off hand in an interview that he believes alien life exists, but says the government doesn't have them at Area 51. People read too much into it and Obama clarifies that he hasn't seen any evidence. A report asks Trump about it and he says, tongue planted in cheek, that Obama may have released classified information, and then he says that he will get Obama out of trouble by declassifying. And then the madman does it! Like I said, Trump is one of a kind. 

To be fair, a lot of information about UFO's and UAP's have been released already. We have all seen the videos of strange objects on defense department film. The government has admitted that something is going on but nobody know what exactly is happening. 

I am fully expecting that whatever Trump releases here will be similar. We will probably get new information about incidents that we aren't currently aware of. We will see documents we haven't seen before. We might even get explanations for previous incidents that have previously not been explained. And there may be some exciting stuff. 

What I don't expect is the idea that there will be a smoking gun, proof that aliens both exist and are here on this planet. As much as conspiracy theories say otherwise, I don't believe that's the kind of secret you could keep. And given that Presidents of both parties have admitted that they have no evidence either way, I tend to believe it. I have no doubt that if there was evidence of extraterrestrial life, Trump would release it for no other reason than to discredit the Democrats that covered it up, and I think Joe Biden and Barack Obama would have done the same thing. 

Regardless, this is more government transparency, and that is usually a good thing. There could be some negatives, like there was with the Epstein file release causing some pretty obvious derangement, but overall it's not a bad thing when the government declassifies things that don't really need to be classified. 

As for me, I am agnostic about the idea of aliens visiting Earth. I do think that the UFO phenomenon is "real" in that people are seeing and recording things they can't explain, but it doesn't necessary follow that the whole thing is aliens. It's not impossible though, and if proof of extraterrestrial life was found I would not be seriously surprised. 

Prince Andrew has been arrested for passing documents to Jeffrey Epstein.

 

Prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor. BBC. 

Prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has been arrested for passing documents to Jeffrey Epstein. BBC. Andrew, who had his titles revoked for his association with Epstein and allegations of sexual abuse, was not charged for sex crimes, but arrested for abuse of office. Under UK laws, police are allowed to arrest suspects before formal charges have been filed. Files released from the FBI's investigation into Jeffrey Epstein showed that Andrew had passed on information on state visits and investment opportunities while performing his role as the UK's trade envoy. Andrew was accused by Virginia Giuffre, who died in 2025, of sexual assault, but settled those allegations out of court. 

My Comment:

A quick note on criminal justice in the UK. Unlike the United States, police in the UK can arrest and hold people before formal charges while an investigation is still ongoing. Obviously, this is not how it works in the United States, and it is very possible, though unlikely, that Andrew could still avoid charges. 

With that being said, the facts of this case does not seem to be in dispute. Andrew, in the role as trade delegate, passed information onto Epstein, information that Epstein had no right to. I don't think anyone has denied that Andrew passed these documents to Epstein and there really wasn't any reason for him to do so. 

But the case might not be as open and shut as we think. Andrew does have the defense that these documents weren't technically classified and sending them to Epstein wasn't damaging. Without a full review of those documents, I am not sure if that is a correct reading or not, but right now the chances of acquittal are not zero, along with the fact that he might not even be formally charged at all. 

Greatly complicating things is the fact that a lot of people that could potentially serve on his Jury are going to be very aware of the other accusations against him. Epstein was credibly accused of sexual misconduct by two separate people, an anonymous 22 year old woman and Virginia Giuffre. Andrew probably should have been charged in both cases, but was not (and will not in Giuffre's case after her death last year). Though Andrew is likely to get a fair trial and media coverage will be limited in the UK at least, I can't help but to think that the jury will convict if this ever goes to trial for that reason alone. 

Of course, it's very possible and even likely that Andrew will plead guilty. Plea deals work differently in the UK, but he would be able to cut quite a bit of his time off simply by pleading guilty at the first opportunity. Doing so would make this case go away and it is probably the most likely and welcome outcome for Andrew. The general public would not like it though, and would perceive any deal as favoritism, even though Andrew is obviously in the outs with the Royal Family. 

I had said for awhile that it was pretty likely that this arrest, along with a possible one of Lord Mandelson who also passed documents to Epstein and even collected money from him, were going to be the only ones we see as a result of the Epstein files. Though the demand for scalps for sexual crimes is high, the evidence just isn't there. Very few of Epstein's victims named names and many of them are not reliable themselves, including the late Virginia Giuffre. She did name names but ended up having to settle with Alan Dershowitz for defamation when she accused him of misconduct. Not to mention, many of the players are dead, with Epstein and Jean-Luc Brunel dying in prison and Bill Richardson and Marvin Minsky dying of natural causes. Not to mention Giuffre herself. 

The UK cases though are a lot easier to prosecute. There isn't any he-said she-said uncertainty here and there is likely to be physical evidence. Even if no new evidence is discovered, the evidence is solid. The emails are real and aren't really in dispute. The main questions are going to be if it meets the standards of the Misconduct in Public Office crime, not if he actually sent the information. 

Will this cause the Epstein issue to go away in the United States or get worse? I am not sure. Prince Andrew was the most high profile person in the entire Epstein scandal that was actually credibly accused of misconduct (Obviously Bill Clinton and Donald Trump were higher profile, but neither of them have any credible accusations against them). Arresting him will be seen as a victory. 

On the other hand, many of the folks out there have legitimately gone insane over the Epstein issue. I had one person threaten to throw me into a woodchipper on social media the other day after I said we shouldn't execute people without evidence. These are no longer rational people and they won't be satisfied by anything other than seeing whoever they hate the most getting lynched, regardless of what the evidence actually shows. I don't think there is any hope for these people, but they are thankfully a small minority. 

Regardless, I am glad to see Andrew crash and burn. Even if he somehow avoids getting charged and imprisoned, his reputation has been destroyed. I have always believed that the sexual misconduct accusations against him were among the most convincing in the Epstein case and I have little doubt he is guilty of them. I also believe he was guilty of passing documents to Epstein as well and I am happy he is going to face justice.