Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Crazed woman shot by police after kidnapping and stabbing a 3 year old in Nebraska.

 

Bodycam footage shows Noemi Guzman about to stab the child. New York Post. 

A woman was shot and killed by police after she kidnapped and slashed a 3 year old boy at a Nebraska Wal-Mart. New York Post. 31 year old Noemi Guzman confronted the child's babysitter and took the child after shoplifting a knife from the store. She then stabbed 3 year old Cyler Hillman in the face and hand before police shot and killed her. The boy is expected to recover but had to get stiches to close the laceration inflicted by Guzman. Guzman had a long rap sheet and had been found not guilty due to insanity after a crime spree that saw her stab her father, try to burn down his house and then breaking into a church to threaten a priest. She also had a previous conviction for assault in 2018.

My Comment:

 Normally I don't cover minor incidents like this one, even if they go viral, but this case speaks to larger trends in law enforcement and criminal justice for what should be obvious reasons. I had wrote previously how the justice system might change how they handle mental illness after the man who murdered Iryna Zarutksa, Decarlos Brown, was found not competent to stand trial.

In a sane world, Guzman would absolutely not be on the streets. Her rampage in 2024 was beyond the pale. Not only did she stab her own father, she tried to light both him and his home on fire. She then broke into a church and threatened a priest and it's a miracle that nobody was killed during that rampage. And she was already a convicted felon for an assault! 

Guzman was undoubtably mentally ill. She appears to have been a severely schizophrenic person and she was apparently off her meds. Her motivations here were likely her mental illness and it's tragic that she wasn't under control. 

But she was supposed to be. She was found not guilty by reason of insanity, but that's not supposed to be a free pass. Instead of institutionalizing her she was let out as an outpatient and was ordered to take her meds. The problem was there was nobody there to actually ensure that she was taking her meds. A lot of people with severe mental illness stop taking their meds for various reasons.

This was a recipe for disaster and it's lucky that Cyler Hillman was only stabbed and not killed. And it's the kind of thing that is sadly predictable. This was an entirely preventable crime. Had the laws of Nebraska had been better, Guzman would have been in prison, getting treatment, or in a secure mental health facility, depending on how the laws would be changed. Something like New York's "guilty but mentally ill" verdict or even just ensuring that folks aren't let out as outpatients would have prevented this crime. 

I do think that there is a growing outrage over these kinds of preventable crimes. People like Noemi Guzman and Decarlos Brown should absolutely not be on the streets and the laws need to change to protect our law abiding citizens from career criminals and dangerous mentally ill people. 

I do understand that the old asylum system absolutely had some downsides. Warehousing the mentally ill did have a lot of injustice involved in it and conditions were poor. But it does seem like it was the better system because at least it protected innocent members of the public from people like this. 

Finally, I do think this is another example of why bodycams backfired on the left. This story would not have gone viral if it wasn't for the dramatic screencap from the officer's bodycam. That means that there wouldn't be more discussion of these insanity laws, many of which were championed by the left in the first place. 


Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Trump hints that a 2nd round of diplomacy with Iran may be coming soon.

 

An oil tanker. BBC/Reuters. 

President Donald Trump has hinted that a 2nd round of diplomacy with Iran may be coming in the next couple of days. BBC. Trump made comments that the US might go back to Islamabad, where peace talks were held last weekend, in the next couple of days. This comes after a US led blockade has stopped most Iranian traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. At least six ships have been turned back by the US Navy. It is unclear if there has been a breakthrough on diplomacy, the last round of talks failed due to disagreement over Iran's nuclear program. Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon have entered peace talks of their own. 

My Comment:

As expected, a 2nd round of peace talks is beginning. Peace talks usually take quite some time and it's rare for the 1st round of talks to be fully successful. Indeed, it's very possible that the 2nd round of talks will lead into a 3rd round and beyond. 

However, there is a chance that there will be major progress made in the 2nd round of talks. I say this because they are coming so quickly after the 1st round and that could mean that whatever the sticking point was, it has been resolved. 

It could be the fact that while the US diplomats were authorized to negotiate an end to the war, the Iranian delegation had to get it approved with their leadership first. From what I understand, that made their negotiating tactics rather handicapped and they weren't able to actually make a deal. It's possible that obstacle has been removed. But it's also possible, even likely, that this will just be a more considered counter offer from Iran. 

I do think that Iran is going to be motivated to negotiate because of the blockade. Iran gets a huge amount of their money from oil sales and they were also getting money from their transit bribes they were forcing on ships that were trying to transit. The blockade, while not perfect, is going to cost the Iranian regime millions of dollars a day, every day that it's in effect. Give that Iran's economy is in shambles, not having the oil flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz is going to be extremely costly. 

I also think that the conflict will likely remain in a "frozen" state and that the ceasefire will be extended. There is always a chance that something goes wrong, but I am guessing that as long as diplomacy is happening at this high of a level the conflict will remain in it's current state. Both sides have a major incentive to not start the conflict again, so unless someone screws something up or there is just an absolute impasse I am guessing that the ceasefire will hold. 

It's also positive that Israel and Lebanon are holding talks. It shows that Israel too wants to end the conflict. I had worried about them torpedoing any peace deal but it seems like they want out of this conflict as well. 

So, how likely is this 2nd round of talks to end the war? I'd say it's unlikely, but not impossible, like a 1 out of 3 chance. More realistically, it's going to be a starting point and it will probably take more rounds of negotiating to actually end the war. There is always a chance of a breakthrough or some kind of disaster but my guess is that the war will probably end sometime in May or June. 

Monday, April 13, 2026

Two Congressmen, Democrat Eric Swalwell and Republican Tony Gonzales resign from Congress after separate sex scandals.

 

Eric Swalwell. Bloomberg.

Two Congressmen, Democrat Eric Swalwell and Republican Tony Gonzales, have resigned from congress after separate sex scandals. Bloomberg. Swalwell had been accused of raping a drunk woman and additional sexual misconduct by four other women. Gonzales, a married father of six, had an affair with a staffer who then killed herself. Swalwell had already dropped out of the California Governor's race while Gonzales had lost a primary contest against pro-gun Youtuber Brandon Herrera. Both men risked expulsion if they had not resigned as momentum was budling to expel them. Two other members of Congress, Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who is accused of stealing pandemic relief funds, and Republican Cory Mills, who has been accused of domestic violence, may also face resignation and/or expulsion. 

My Comment:

I have mixed feelings about this. As a gun rights supporter this is like Christmas, New Years and the 4th of July all mixed together. Swalwell was so deranged on this issue that he literally threatened to use nuclear weapons on gun owners if he didn't go along with his gun confiscation schemes. And Tony Gonzales was so anti-gun that Brandon Herrera almost unseated him in 2024 and was successful in doing so in 2026. Neither of these men cared about the right to keep and bear arms or the right to self defense and I am not sad to see either of them go. 

But I also don't like the precedent set here. Swalwell may well indeed be a sex pest at best and a rapist at worst but none of those accusations have been tried in court and we don't even know who made the rape accusation. That's not enough to get a conviction in court and I don't think it should be enough to force Swalwell to resign, or even leave the California Governor's race. 

As for Gonzales, his case was complicated by the fact that his mistress committed suicide. Had that not happened, he would just be another person who cheated on his spouse. I honestly don't think that Gonzales should be punished just because his mistress ended her life. That's tragic but I also don't think it's a good idea to send the message that if you are angry against your partner you should kill yourself to ruin his life. 

Regardless, both men could have fought against this but decided it wasn't worth it. That could mean that Swalwell is guilty but it also might mean that both men know that fighting against expulsion would be an uphill battle and not worth the trouble they would face.  

Politically this is going to result in a status quo ante. With both men resigning and residing in relatively safe seats, the control of the house won't change. This is another reason why I am upset about Gonzales being forced to resign. We could have had a slight advantage for a short time before Swalwell was replaced but the GOP just threw that advantage away. Gonzales wasn't a great congressman but again, why give away that advantage when he was already going to be gone in less then a year?

As for the two other members of congress, I expect that Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick will be gone soon too. The accusations against her are pretty solid, she absolutely abused her position. She took $5 million in FEMA relief funds and threw them into her congressional campaign and was found guilty on 25 out of 27 charges against her by the House Ethics Committee. It would be crazy if she wasn't forced to resign or even gets expelled if she refuses to do so.  

Cory Mills is a less certain thing, but he's been accused of a whole lot. Domestic abuse, sexual misconduct, various financial crimes, abuse of office and even stolen valor. But the case against him hasn't been tried in the House Ethics Committee and are not as confirmed as the ones against McCormick. Still, he would likely be forced to resign or even be expelled if McCormick is going to leave. 

Either way, I think this is more about appearances than anything else. After all, Katie Porter wasn't forced to leave the California governor's race for domestic violence, but Swalwell was. If we also kicked everyone out that cheated on their spouse, would there be any members of Congress left? Well, maybe Lindsay Graham in the Senate, but that's it. All of this just seems performative.  

Sunday, April 12, 2026

The US will blockade Iranian ports after Islamabad talks fail to end the war.

 

Vice President JD Vance after the negotiations. AP. 

The US military will blockade Iranian ports after Islamabad talks fail to end war. AP. The blockade was announced this morning and will block all ships coming out of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. Ships leaving from other ports in the region will not be affected. The 21 hour talks in Islamabad fell apart mostly due to the nuclear issue as Iran has refused to give up their supply of enriched uranium. US destroyers are reported to be in the Strait in an effort to prepare for mine clearing operations. 

My Comment:

First of all, the peace talks. I had some hope that the talks would have worked but it was never a sure thing. The United States and Iran were far apart on the nuclear issue. As long as Iran has nuclear material, it's going to be a red line for the United States and any peace deal is going to require Iran to give it up. They weren't willing to do so yet and that means that the talks were going to fail. 

That doesn't mean that the war is back on. There is a real chance that a 2nd round of talks are going to happen soon. Right now, the ceasefire is still on and neither side has really broken it. Pakistan, in their role of mediator, has said that contacts are still being made between the two sides. And everything I have heard has said that both sides were actually pretty close to a deal besides the nuclear material issue. I think there is a real chance of another round of talks in the "days to weeks" timeline. 

Aa for the blockade, it's mostly symbolic in nature. The elephant in the room is that few ships were willing to run the strait in the first place, even after the ceasefire was put into place. Why? Because was able to lay a few naval mines but they don't actually know where they are. Nobody does because after laying them, the mines drifted out of position, making them a major threat to shipping, and, more importantly, the insurance companies that insure the ships bottom lines. 

The blockade does have a major effect though. A few ships have ran the strait throughout the conflict after paying bribes to Iran. The blockade will absolutely prevent this if the US Navy is up to snuff. Those ships won't be able to escape into the Indian Ocean. This will cut off the last real lifeline in terms of funding that Iran has and it will put some pressure on Iran to cut a deal. 

It's also going to put pressure on the rest of the world to do something about Iran. America doesn't really need any of the oil coming out of Iran. Not only are we the biggest oil producer in the world right now, we are getting oil from our new vassal, Venezuela. Europe, China, Australia and many other countries are going to hurt a lot unless they pressure Iran into making a deal. 

The bigger news is that the United States Navy is moving to remove mines. Supposedly two destroyers have already entered the area and are preparing for mine removal opperations and mapping of safe routes. Once that happens and the mines are gone, or at least a safe path is opened, the Strait of Hormuz will be open for non-Iranian traffic. This would remove a lot of Iran's leverage and I don't think they can really do too much about it. 

Friday, April 10, 2026

Eric Swalwell's campaign for Governor of California has fallen apart after accusations of sexual assault.

 

Congressman Eric Swalwell. New York Post/AP.

Congressman Eric Swalwell's campaign for Governor of California has fallen apart after accusations of sexual assault. New York Post. An anonymous staffer said that Swalwell had sexually assaulted her on two occasions, one in 2019 and another in 2024. In both cases she said she had gotten blackout drunk and woke up the next day with little doubt she had been raped. Swalwell has denied the accusations and even threatened defamation suits, but it still has led to an exodus of staffers and endorsements for the front runner in the California Governor's race. 

My Comment:

I am on record as saying that Swalwell is one of the most disgusting people in politics today and is one of my most hated political enemies. I will never forgive him for threatening to nuke American Citizens just because they didn't want to go along with his assault weapons confiscation scheme. He's been one of the most prominent advocates of gun control in his party and if I was confident that these allegations were true I'd be celebrating the end of his political career. 

But I have serious reservations to the point where I feel I have to defend Swalwell a bit. He absolutely might be guilty but at this point? We should wait for actual proof. Right now there is no way to confirm or deny the accusations against him as we don't even know who the person is that brought them. He hasn't been charged or convicted of any crime and the presumption of innocence should absolutely apply. A man's career should not be ruined because of an anonymous accusation of sexual assault. It has to be on the record with a name attached to it for any real investigation to occur.

Swalwell also denies he has ever had sex with a staffer, consensual or otherwise. Right now it can't be proven that he has done anything at all. The accusations against him are serious and worth investigating but nothing has been done to prove the allegations one way or another. And they appear to be a classic case of "he said, she said" which might just be unprovable either way. Plus, Swalwell doesn't have a history of this kind of thing, as far as I am aware. 

Regardless, the timing of this is extraordinarily suspicious, which is why I am so reluctant to believe the accusations against a man I otherwise hate. Had these accusations come off cycle when there was no huge election I might give them more credibility (Not much more, the accusation being anonymous is a huge red flag). This wasn't done when the incidents occurred, they were done at an absolutely critical time in the California governor's race. 

Some context is necessary here. California has, the frankly ridiculous, open primary system where the top two candidates, regardless of party, advance to the general election. This year two Republicans, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco were leading in the polls because the Democratic field was far to large. The Democrats needed to get one of the major Democratic candidates to drop out in order to make sure the nightmare scenario for them, two GOP candidates on the ballot in November, didn't occur. 

Taking down Swalwell was the best way to do this. With him either dropping out of the race or damaged to the point of irrelevance, the nightmare scenario will not occur as presumably the voters that were going for Swalwell will go to Tom Steyer or Katie Porter instead. Indeed, it's possible that it will be both of those candidates now instead of Hilton and Bianco. 

This doesn't necessarily mean that these accusations are a fabrication. Indeed, it's possible they are legit and it's just the timing that is suspicious. But I have to think that given these circumstances Swalwell should at least get some benefit of the doubt. He still deserves to lose the Governor's race, after all, lost in all this was the absolute fact that he was for a time compromised by a Chinese Spy. But I can't help but think that this was a plot against him.