US airports return to normal after Trump ordered TSA agents to get paid.

 

Travelers at a TSA checkpoint in Baltimore. Reuters. 

US airports return to normal after President Trump ordered TSA agents to get paid. Reuters. Waits at TSA checkpoints went from hours to minutes after Trump ordered the paychecks to be cut and ordered ICE to help with the lines. TSA Agents received two paychecks worth of backpay and will get the half-paychecks for the first week worked after the government shutdown. The shutdown has caused some TSA agents to quit and thousands of other DHS employees are going without paychecks. Democrats have refused to fund DHS due to funds going to ICE and CBP. 

My Comment:

The Democrats strategy here was to make plane travel as annoying as possible. That was working for a short period but that is no longer in the cards. TSA is back to work and the long lines travelers were facing are now gone, thanks to these paychecks and the assistance of ICE. Almost all of their leverage is now gone. 

I do feel pretty bad for the TSA workers. Missing out on two and a half paychecks because the Democrats are throwing a fit is terrible. Many of those folks had to quit or take temporary jobs just to get by. The TSA isn't a great job to begin with but it's absolutely sad that they have to deal with constant congressional disfunction. Of course there are still thousands of DHS employees that are still out of work and I feel bad for them. 

It is bizarre that the Democrats are still trying to make the ICE issue into something. I don't think people cared that much when ICE was in the news every day and folks realized that Alex Pretti and Rene Goode caused their own deaths and shouldn't be mourned. This seems like another 80/20 issue that the Democrats are on the wrong side of. 

I do wonder when the shutdown is going to end. The Senate had passed a deal that would have funded all of DHS except for ICE and CPB and the House rejected it. I think the Republicans were right to do so. ICE and CPB are critical government functions and it's absurd to think that the Democrats should get there way here. They need to fund both agencies in full. 

Finally, I do have to say that I am glad I didn't have to travel in this mess. The last time I traveled via plane was back in 2017 and then the TSA line was basically empty both from my small local airport as well as the airport in Las Vegas. Had I had to wait an hour I would have been furious. Thankfully, that shouldn't be a problem anymore. 

Of course, there is always a chance that some judge will issue an injunction despite it not being supported by the law at all. That has been the Democrats plan throughout Trump's 2nd term and it would be a real problem in this case. Hopefully the government shutdown will be resolved before that can happen. 

Will the United States take Kharg Island from Iran?

 

Smoke from a missile strike on The UAE on March 14th. CNBC/AFP/Getty.

President Trump hinted that America might "take Iran's oil" and may take over Kharg Island, Iran's main oil hub. CNBC. Trump compared it to the successful action in Venezuela that led to a change of leadership and de facto control over the states oil. The Iran conflict has lasted around five weeks and has caused some disruption to oil markets. The Washington Post says that the Pentagon is preparing for a weeks long ground operation as thousands of troops have entered the region. 

My Comment:

Keep in mind that Trump is pretty good at misdirection when it comes to foreign policy. His words really don't mean that much and we don't actually know what he is thinking. This could be an effort to force Iran to defend Kharg Island while the actual target could be elsewhere. 

Do we have enough troops in the region to take Kharg Island? Yes. We have around 10,000 combat troops there, including two Marine Expeditionary Units aboard our amphibious assault ships, along with a couple thousand paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne. That's more than enough troops to take the island, and hold it, from the Iranians. 

Does that mean it's going to happen? Absolutely not. I see this more of a threat than anything else. Trump usually doesn't telegraph moves so transparently and doing so is not likely in this case. I feel that this is more of a threat than anything serious. 

Trump's main goal here is to get the Iranians to give up there nuclear material and cut a deal with the United States. This is another threat like the previous one to destroy Iran's energy generation. Again, we could have easily done that as well, but we backed off on it, most likely due to humanitarian concerns. It's probably why the threat didn't work, Iran didn't believe that we would do it, but they might believe that we could take Kharg. 

Is it a good idea militarily? You could say so. Iran absolutely needs Kharg Island if they want their oil to be sold, it's their most important hub. Taking it would cripple them. Doing so would not be difficult and neither would be holding it. The Marines and the 82nd would be well suited to take the island and much of the defenses there have already been destroyed, though Iran has made moves to reinforce it. 

Politically though? I am not sure. Such an operation would absolutely lead to US casualties and most Americans are opposed to boots on the ground. The casualties might even be heavy, though not so heavy that the operation wouldn't be sustainable. That too would play extremely poorly politically, folks want to avoid a "quagmire" and any casualties for our ground forces would play into that narrative. 

It's why I think if ground operations do happen, they will be raids, not taking and holding territory. Think the Venezuela raid, not the Iraq War. And I think there would be very different targets than Kharg Island, the main goal would be to fully open the Gulf of Hormuz, so a raid on areas with missile bases or naval docks would be likely goals. 

As for the course of the war itself, I do think that it's likely to not last too much longer. Trump is clearly talking to somebody, though it's also obviously not the IRGC or the Ayatollah. My guess is the actual secular Iranian government, or perhaps the military, wants to make a deal wile the country's religious leadership, including the IRGC, are keeping this from happening. I just don't see how the IRGC can stay in power long term with so much of their leadership dead and eventually a deal will be made. 

President Trump sends Iran 15 point plan to end the Iran conflict.

 

President Donald Trump. CNBC/Getty.

President Trump has sent Iran a 15 point plan to end the conflict. CNBC. President Trump said that Iran was eager to make a deal and that talks were proceeding, though Iran has denied the specifics. The New York Times reported that a 15 point plan had been delivered to Iran via Pakistan. Pakistan has offered to broker an end to the war. Trump also repeated claims that Iran has already lost the war and is willing to give up nuclear ambitions. 

The New York Post detailed the 15 point plan. One of those demands was not revealed but 14 of the points were released. 

Iran would agree to the following:

Iran must dismantle existing nuclear capabilities

Iran must commit never to pursue nuclear weapons.

No uranium enrichment on Iranian territory.

Iran must hand its stockpile of enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). 

The Natanz, Isfahan and Fordo nuclear facilities must be dismantled.

The IAEA must be granted full access to Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Iran must abandon its “regional proxy paradigm.”

Iran must cease the funding, directing and arming its proxies.

The Strait of Hormuz must remain open. 

Iran’s missile program must be limited in both range and quantity.

Iran must limit its use of missiles to self-defense.

In return Iran would get the following:

The end of sanctions imposed by the international community.

US assistance to advance its civilian nuclear program. 

A “snapback” mechanism allowing for the automatic reimposition of sanctions if Iran fails to comply would be removed.

My Comment:

Like I said yesterday, it's unclear who Trump is negotiating with. Ayatollah Khamenei remains missing in action and nobody appears to be in charge of Iran's religious leadership. My guess is that we are negotiating with Iran's secular leadership. Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, remains alive, probably for this very reason. I am guessing it is his leadership that Trump is negotiating with, not the religious leaders, or, failing that, someone else in his government or the military.  

This plan seems more than fair. Iran would be forced to stop doing all the things that have made every government in the region hate them and made them a threat to most of the hemisphere. Getting rid of their nuclear material was always going to be the biggest issue and without agreement there the war will absolutely continue. 

Iran's missiles are a major threat too and one that probably justified the war. Recently, Iran attempted and failed to target Diego Garcia, our base in the Indian Ocean. The attack failed but it showed that Iran had the missile capability to hit most of the capitals of Europe. They will be forced to give up this capability in any peace deal as well. 

Most notably, Iran would be forced to cut off funding for their armies of proxies in the region. This means that Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen would have to self fund. In all likelihood, this would lead to those groups dissolving, as nobody is going to want to fight for a cause that can't afford to buy weapons or even pay their troops. This would hugely increase the stability of the region and would be a massive win for everyone, outside of those groups of course.  

Iran would get a lot out of this deal as well. They would get an US managed nuclear program, not that they really need it. But they would also lose the sanctions that have crippled their economy. One assumes that Iranian oil would be allowed to be sold on the market and foreign companies would be able to invest in Iran again. This would again be good for everyone, gas prices would plumet and Iran's economy would recover.

So will Iran go for this? Again, it depends on who is in charge. Iran's religious nutjob leadership will never accept this, but it doesn't seem like they are in charge. Iran's secular leadership seems a lot more reasonable and if they are in charge I can absolutely see this happening.

The problem is that they aren't the only ones with a vote. Both Israel and the Gulf States may have different demands on ending the war, mostly demanding regime change. Given that Israel is a party to the conflict, getting them on board will be critical. I don't know if Iran will be receptive to a regime change or not and it could be the stumbling point to any peace deal. 

Either way, I do think we should be optimistic that a deal will be made. I think it's moderately more likely than Trump simply declaring victory and going home now. A lot can still go wrong but I think it's very possible that Iran will decide that peace is the best option now. 

President Trump announces energy cease fire in Iran, claiming talks are ongoing.

 

President Donald Trump. BBC/EPA.

President Trump announces a five day energy cease fire in Iran, claiming talks are ongoing. BBC. Trump had previously threatened to destroy Iran's energy production. Iran has denied any talks are ongoing but it is unclear who in the Iranian government Trump is negotiating with. Trump said that Iran had agreed to give up the pursuit of nuclear weapons, a major war goal. Some question if the story is even real as Trump is well known for keeping his personal thoughts about military conflict close to the vest and is known to mislead his enemies on military matters. 

My Comment:

It's hard to comment on what President Trump is doing when it comes to military conflict because he does believe that it's stupid to telegraph what he is planning. He's got a point, keeping your enemies confused is a valid strategy and one that has worked for him in the past. 

And I also think that's just as true for Iran. I would be shocked if they weren't talking to the United States in some fashion and I have seen other media reports that they are using intermediaries in the region to pass messages to and from the United States. 

The real question is who Trump is actually talking to. He has specifically denied that he's talking to the new Ayatollah Khamenei, who might not even be alive after injuries sustained in airstrikes. But could it be the Iranian President? Some general that wants out? Some other high ranking figure? Or someone representing Khamenei? Who knows? 

I am guessing that whoever it was blinked. Iran's government's grip on the country is already weak for many reasons, most notably a water crisis in the capitol. Had Trump actually destroyed Iran's energy infrastructure it would be the end of the Iranian regime as it stands right now. It would be an absolute disaster for them. They would not survive. 

It does raise the question on why Trump didn't just do it. I am guessing it's because it would be a humanitarian disaster as well. It would also mean that it could turn Iran into a failed state. That would be a good way to end the war but it seems likely that the war is going to end with a negotiated settlement at this point. 

So, will that happen? It's probably the 2nd most possible outcome. I still think Trump declaring victory and going home is the more likely option. But it's more likely now that a deal will be made with someone from the regime. It does seem like a complete regime collapse is a lot less likely than the other outcomes at this point.  

ICE Agents will assist in airport security as DHS shutdown continues.

 

Long lines due to a lack of TSA agents. BBC/Getty.

ICE Agents will assist in airport security as the DHS shutdown continues. BBC. Travelers have been facing hours long lines due to a lack of TSA agents for security. ICE agents are well suited for the role as many of them use similar machines on the border. ICE will not be involved in screening passengers directly, but they will be used to free up TSA agents so they can do so. The lack of funding for DHS has caused TSA agents to go without pay for more than a month and 400 agents have quit.

My Comment:

I've got mixed feelings about this. First, the negative. I don't really want ICE agents doing anything other than deporting illegal immigrants. I know that deportations are still going on but the problem is big enough that even the 3 million that have been deported or left is hardly a drop in the bucket. I want that number to go up by a very large amount and every agent helping at our airports is an agent not deporting illegal immigrants. From what I understand the impact will be minimal, ICE has 22,000 agents and only a hundred or so are going to be used here, but still. 

But I have to admit that this is a great solution to the TSA shutdown. ICE agents are going to be able to help the TSA with these long lines and will eliminate much of the leverage the Democrats have on this issue. ICE already has experience with the kind of roles they will be used for so it's a natural fit. 

The Democrats whole strategy was to put pressure on the Republicans to somehow defund ICE and they were relying on making travelers miserable in order to do so. With this deployment they aren't going to accomplish that. Indeed, they won't accomplish anything whatsoever and the longer the shutdown occurs the more criticism they are going to get. 

What will the Democrats do now? My guess is they will get some kind of temporary injunction to prevent President Trump from doing something he clearly has the authority to do. They will find some judge that cares more about screwing over President Trump over the law, just like they have done so many times before. But eventually the ruling will be overturned. 

Regardless, I do think this is going to backfire on the Democrats. ICE hasn't been affected by this shutdown at all, it's already funded, so all this is accomplishing is punishing the people at the TSA, FEMA and the Coast Guard. Given the current security situation it's insane that the Democrats are holding this funding up. All it would take is one major terrorist attack and the whole thing will be beyond bad for the Democrats. 

And it's not like the issue is exactly relevant anymore. The conflict with Iran has stopped the momentum of every single other news story in the country. Nobody is talking about ICE and deportations anymore and the Democrat's "martyrs", Renee Goode and Alex Pretti, have been almost completely forgotten, except when the Republicans mock them for causing their own deaths. It's a non issue now and people are going to be upset.