Israel intercepts drones and ballistic missiles launched by Houthi rebels in Yemen.

 

The WarZone.

Israel has intercepted drones and ballistic missiles launched by Houthi rebels in Yemen. WarZone/The Drive. The Israelis used their Arrow-3 anti-ballistic missiles to intercept the weapons, were most likely Burkan-2 or Burkan-3 ballistic missiles. A large number of drones were also launched from Yemen and were destroyed. The Houthis are vowing more attacks and launched an additonal attack which was also intercepted by the Israelis. This is the third attack launched from Yemen, with the first being intercepted by an US Destroyer while the 2nd missed Israel and hit Egypt, wounding six people. With further attacks from Yemen expected and Hezbollah launching attacks as well, worries are growing that Iran could be getting ready to join the war. 

My Comment:

  This was something I predicted in my previous post. The Houthis had many of these Burkan-2 and Burkan-3 missiles left over from the war between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. And given how much the Houthis hate Israel it is not surprising that they are launching them at Israel. 

What is somewhat surprising is that the Arrow-3 missiles actually intercepted these missiles. Given the angle that ballistic missiles come it at, most traditional anti-missile defenses are pretty useless. Apparently the Arrow-3 missiles get around this by hitting them in space, which is pretty cool. I do worry about the space junk such an interception will create though. 

 The question then becomes who has more weapons, Israel or the Houthis? My guess is that the Houthis don't actually have that many of these Burkans left. They used a large number of them during the war with the Saudis and the ones they have left won't be enough to overwhelm the Arrow missile defenses. And they might have difficulty getting more from Iran, given the circumstances. 

Though it is always a possibility that one or more of these missiles get through, I think the drones are actually a much bigger threat to the Israelis. Though they have been effective in knocking these drones out of the sky so far, that does not mean that will continue. Drones are cheap, easy to use and easy to transport. It's very possible that the Israelis will run out of defenses before the Houthis run out of drones.

And there isn't much the Israelis can do to stop these attacks either. They could launch airstrikes and missile attacks against the Houthis but those are going to be tied up in Syria and Lebanon, fighting Hezbollah and other Iran backed militias. And it's not easy to find mobile missile launchers, just look at the Scud hunts during Desert Storm. Let alone the much more mobile and easy to hide, it would not be easy for the Israelis to destroy these drone operators. 

Unlike the article though, I am not too worried about Iran joining the war. They are content to use their proxies to attack Israel instead. They want to pressure Israel and they can do that without committing their own forces. 

Heavily armed man planned mass shooting in Colorado but killed himself before he could carry it out

 

Glenwood Caverns Adventure Park. Fox News. 

A heavily armed man planned a mass shooting at a Colorado amusement park but killed himself before he could carry it out. Fox News. The man was found in a woman's bathroom in the Glenwood Caverns Adventure Park. He was heavily armed with a rifle, handgun, and explosives, along with extra magazines, body armor and patches that falsely indicated he was with law enforcement. "I'm not a killer, I just want to get into the caves" was cryptically written in the bathroom where he was found. The man was 20 years old and has not been identified yet. 

My Comment:

Strange story out of Colorado and it looks like a major incident was avoided because the man involved decided to end it instead of carrying it out. That's probably the best case scenario for an attempted mass shooting/bombing and it's a good thing that he died.

I don't think the shooter was particularly heavily armed. Supposedly he only had two magazines for both weapons he had, which is not a lot. He had body armor as well, but that doesn't matter that much if you run out of ammo right away. Still, he certainly could have done some damage with what he had. 

What is a lot more concerning was the fact that he had explosives as well. Some of those were reportedly fake, he had fake pipe bombs and grenades, but some of the explosives were real. The real explosives had potential to kill quite a few people and could have caused utter chaos during the shooting, assuming they even worked. Even the fake explosives would have made the police response more 

One wonders how the man was able to purchase a handgun since you have to be 21 to buy one. It's possible that he stole them or purchased them illegally. It just goes to show that gun laws do little to prevent these mass shootings. However, I have seen some differing ages for this man, some accounts have him at 24 instead of 20. 

The other thing I can't quite get is what he meant with his suicide note. Was he just joking about how he was taking his own life? Was it something more cryptic? Or did he even write it at all? It wouldn't be the first time that someone left a note in a bathroom after all. 

I try not to cover mass shootings unless they have a major political component because I have said for a long time that coverage of mass shootings is a major cause of them. Indeed, this attack might have been inspired by the recent shooting in main, but given the explosives the guy had that seems somewhat unlikely. 

But in this case I think it is important to cover it. Why? Well, like mass shootings, suicide is something that transmits from the media as well. And I would like the next potential mass shooter to do something like this instead of killing a bunch of people. I would rather they just choose to not do either but that isn't always an option...

 

Anti-Israeli rioters target a flight from Israel as it arrived in Russia.

 

Rioters flood into the Makhachkala airport in Russia's Republic of Dagestan. Fox News/Reuters.

Anti-Israeli rioters target Jews arriving to Makhachkala airport in Russia's Republic of Dagestan. Fox News. Muslims had heard that there was a flight arriving from Tel Aviv in Israel and flooded the airport, to the point where air operations were ceased. A small number of Jews and Israelis were "isolated" during the incident but nobody was hurt. Russia and Vladimir Putin are mostly pro-Jewish and pro-Israeli but have had issues with their Muslim populations in Southern Russia

. 

My Comment:

This seemed less like a riot and more like a lynch mob that just couldn't find anyone to lynch. These men seemed very angry with Jewish people and given how unruly they were it's very possible had they found any Jews they could have hurt them. The way they hassled this man, who is an Uzbek, shows me that things could have been much worse. 

BREAKING:

The lynch mob which stormed the airport in Dagestan, Russia to search for Jews as a plane was landing from Tel Aviv has found its first “suspected Jew”

He tells them he is Uzbek, but they don’t believe him

“Take his passport, search his phone” pic.twitter.com/9gKteyKFz0

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 29, 2023

It does look like Russian authorities were able to protect the Jews and Israelis on this flight. They should be praised for doing so because this was a dangerous and unruly crowd. They shut down the airport and broke up the crowds and they were able to prevent anyone from getting hurt. 

What would have happened if they hadn't done so? Nothing good. Worst case scenario is that the Jews on the flight would have been lynched. It's also possibly they could have been just beaten or otherwise assaulted. But they also could have been taken hostage by this crowd. I am guessing though that these people would have been torn apart by this crowd. 

You don't often think of radical Islam when you think of Russia but they have had a long history of radicals. Indeed, the Chechen wars of the 1990s were all about radical Islam. I had though those wars had brought things under control as it killed a lot of the worst actors in Russia, but clearly things are not so good. 

I do have questions why a flight would be going from Israel to Dagestan in the first place under these circumstances. With the Israel-Hamas war tensions are high between Jews and Muslims so why send a flight full of Jews there in the first place? It just seems like they are asking for trouble. 

I also wonder how they found out about this flight anyways. I guess these flights are public information so it would be easy enough to look up, but how did it spread after that? I am guessing it was via social media and once a critical mass of people found out about it, things spiraled out of control very quickly. 

I think it's just a matter of time where another of these incidents happen and end up with people getting killed. The media is hyping up every civilian casualty in Gaza and downplaying what Hamas has done. Social media is also allowing anti-Israel protesters to gather worldwide and sooner or later someone is going to be caught by these people and probably will be killed.  

Putin has a difficult path to follow here. He's got large numbers of both Jews and Muslims and is generally pro-Israel. He has seemed to have wanted to try and work as a peacemaker between both sides but he has to make sure not to anger his rather huge Muslim minority. They absolutely hate Israel and Jews in general and if he cracks down too hard on them he could end up in trouble. But if does nothing the next time this happen it might end up with innocent people being killed. It's a problem that all world leaders are going to face the longer this war goes on. 

Mike Pence drops out of the 2024 presidential race

 

Mike Pence after announcing his withdrawal. BBC/EPA.

Former Vice President Mike Pence has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race. BBC. Pence said it was "not his time" and that his candidacy was always going to be an uphill battle. Pence is so far the most notable candidate to exit the race and he presumably did so due to a lack of funding and low poll numbers. Most Republicans consider Pence to be a traitor for certifying the 2020 election. He never did well in the polls due to that and was far behind his former campaign mate, Donald Trump. Pence also did not endorse any other candidate while he dropped out. 

My Comment:

When it comes down to it, Pence only has himself to blame. Had he simply refused to certify the 2020 elections he would have kept his honor and the Republican base would have forgiven him. At worst it would have been sent to the Supreme Court and at best the election would have been overturned and Pence would be in the White House right now as VP and a leading candidate for the 2024 election. 

But instead he bafflingly decided to not only stab Trump in the back, but stab everyone who had voted for his ticket in the back as well. What happened in 2020 was in no way acceptable, a modern country cannot survive when elections are run the way they were that year. All Pence had to do was acknowledge that fact and nobody would have a problem with him. 

Even ignoring that, Pence had basically zero chance to begin with. For the few Republicans that didn't consider him a traitor there was no real reason to vote for him. Many of the anti-Trump Republicans disliked Pence for sharing the office with Trump and there was no way they were going to vote for him if there were any other options. 

So if the mainstream MAGA people wouldn't vote for Pence and neither would the anti-Trump wing, as small as that wing is, who would? Well the answer to that was about 5% of people in the party. That's essentially nothing and the only thing that Pence could hang his hat on is that he was doing better than Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie. It's no surprise that he would back out with poll numbers that bad while running out of money. 

I think Pence is pretty much done as a politician now. There is zero chance that Trump will pick him for VP again and I doubt he would pick him in any other slot as well. And in the extremely unlikely event that another candidate becomes the nomination, Pence isn't really going to be picked there either since he has such limited appeal. And I also can't see him winning in a congressional, senate or governor's race, even in his deep red state of Indiana. 

Of course there was always an option for Pence and that was to admit that he was wrong about the 2020 election. That would win him back a lot of the good graces he squandered on January 6th. The fact that he didn't means he cares more about staying in the good graces of Washington than he does for the American People... As long as that is true, Pence has no future as a politician in America. 

The real question now is when everyone else is going to back out. Trump is averaging around 60% support in most polls, sometimes exceeding it. Even if every anti-Trump candidate drops out and coalesces around one candidate (and zero people switch back to Trump) they would only have 40% of the vote. It really seems like the rest of the field isn't honestly trying to win, other than Ron DeSantis and his campaign will be studied by future historians as a great example of failure. The other candidates are either trying to vie for Trump's VP slot or cabinet (Nikki Haley and Tim Scott) or are just in the race as a cynical attempt to get on MSNBC (Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson). The whole thing is a farce at this point and it's bizarre that it's even continuing. Barring some kind of disaster or tragedy, Trump is the 2024 candidate for the Republican Party. 

After launching a 2nd raid into Gaza, Israel says they are expanding their activity in the region, possibly signaling the start of an invasion.

 

A soldier mans a machine gun on an armored vehicle with the Israeli flag visible. CBS News. 

After launching a 2nd raid into Gaza Israel says they are "expanding their activity" in the region, which may be a prelude to an invasion proper. CBS News. The extent of this new activity is not know but US officials have said that it looks like a start of an invasion. The announcement comes after a 2nd raid into Gaza by Israeli armor which was supported by heavy airstrikes. No Israeli casualties were reported in the raid. Israel is being pressured to both stop the invasion by entities like the United States and UN and pick up the pace by relatives of the hostages taken by Hamas. 

My Comment:

The usual suspects on Twitter were talking about this 2nd raid by Israel and they seem to have been totally disconnected from reality, saying Israel lost huge numbers of tanks and other armor and took heavy casualties. Israel says they took no casualties whatsoever, so someone was lying, and I don't think it was Israel. They really aren't in a position to lie about casualties. 

I do think that the invasion is finally getting underway. Biden tried to delay it but I think Israel is fed up and they are facing immense pressure from the survivors families to try and recover the hostages. I think the offensive is going to happen and it's going to happen sooner rather than later. 

However, I doubt any hostages will be recovered alive. Indeed, I think a lot of them are dead already and if they aren't they could be easily killed once Israel arrives. If they are lucky Israel might save a few hostages but I doubt they will save many. 

Indeed, Israel is facing a very difficult combat environment. Urban combat is always difficult, even after much of the area has been reduced to ruble. Add into that the fact that all of Gaza is riddled with tunnels and you have a recipe for heavy casualties. I've read a lot about the Vietnam war and I remember how difficult it was for US soldiers to clear out NVA and VC occupied tunnels. Gaza is even worse and even with the massive airstrikes Israel has launched I don't see them having an easy time. 

Israel in theory could still back off. Biden is of course pushing for them to do so along with many other groups like the UN. But I don't see that happening while Hamas still holds Israelis hostage and are launching raids and rockets at Israel. They have to do something to respond and airstrikes and drones aren't going to cut it. 

The real problem is that Israel cannot afford a long war. They have called up their reserves and those folks are the core of Israel's economic activity. They can't simply shut down the country for a long war with Gaza, eventually those reservists will have to go back to work. I think that this attack will be more about killing the leadership of Hamas, destroying their weapons and then pulling back out. 

Also complicating things is nobody knows how Iran and their proxies are going to react. They were caught flatfooted by the Hamas attack like everyone else but they have stepped up attacks, with militias attacking US forces in Syria, Hezbollah getting into skirmishes in Lebanon and even the Yemeni Houthi rebels launching missiles, the last of which hit Egypt instead of Israel. 

If Israel launches a major invasion, Iran might order their proxies to step up their attacks and that would complicate things for Israel dramatically. Do they have enough forces to not only invade Gaza but to defend against Hezbollah and the Houthis? Not to mention the ever present threat from the West Bank as well. 

What I don't see is the conflict spilling over into a World War III scenario. I don't see Iran attacking Israel directly and I don't see America getting directly involved in the conflict either. We are bombing Iranian militias that are attacking our forces in Syria but that's status quo ante. I guess there is a tiny chance of something stupid happening but I just don't see a major war coming from this. 

Intruder arrested twice on RFK Jr's property, he still doesn't have Secret Service protection

 

Robert F Kennedy Jr. Politico/Getty.

An intruder has been arrested twice for trespassing on Robert F. Kennedy's Jr's property. Politico. The 28 year old man was arrested, processed and released for trespassing and was issued a protective order. The man returned to Kennedy's home again that same day and was arrested again. Kennedy cited the incident as another reason why he should receive secret service protection. This is not the first incident involving RFK Jr in his longshot, and now independent, bid for president.

 

Yesterday an intruder climbed the fence at my home and was arrested. After being released from police custody later in the day, he immediately returned to my home and was arrested again.

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) October 26, 2023

My Comment:

This is interesting to me on a couple of levels. The first is obviously the continuing threat against RFK Jr. This is not the first incident involving RFK Jr. this election cycle. Back when he was still running as a Democrat he faced a potential assassin who impersonated a US Marshall at one of his events. Clearly there are people that are very upset with what RFK Jr. is saying. 

What is even more bizarre is that RFK Jr. is not getting secret service protection. There is clearly a threat against him but he is having to pay for his own protection. To be fair, he's got Gavin de Becker and Associates, who are very good at what they do. But given the threat of attacks against RFK Jr. why doesn't he have secret service protection? It has to be political right?

I'm generally not a fan of RFK Jr, though he is clearly better than Joe Biden. But I do think he is a serious candidate and he deserves protection. Both of the other main candidates, Biden and Trump, have protection, and I am guessing if any of the GOP also-rans were under the same amount of threat as RFK Jr. is they would get it too. But because RFK Jr will probably take more votes from Biden than Trump he's not getting Secret Service protection. 

I do actually think that RFK Jr. is at risk, given his profile and controversial beliefs. There are a lot of people that despise him for his anti-vaccine stance, which, to be fair, goes far beyond being skeptical of the Coronavirus vaccine. His family obviously has a history of assassination so I wouldn't be all that surprised if it happens again. 

The other notable thing about this incident is that a man that trespassed against a presidential candidate was released so fast that he was able to do the same thing again that very day. Why was he even allowed out of jail? I am guessing it is because of California's no-bail laws that mean even violent offenders get let out. 

It reminds me of a similar incident in Wisconsin involving our governor Tony Evers. In that case a man entered the State Capitol to talk to Evers about domestic violence but was armed with a handgun he was carrying openly, which is illegal to do at the Capitol. He was arrested, processed and released and then came back with a rifle. Thankfully nothing happened but it just goes to show that these people shouldn't be released. 

It's absurd that people can do the things they do and are simply let out for a later court date. So many of these people commit crimes after they are let out and it's only dumb luck and the skill of RFK's protectors that nothing bad happened in this case. If threatening a presidential candidate isn't enough to get locked up these days, what is? 

Joe Biden's support of Israel has deeply angered his Muslim supporters. Will it hurt his reelection chances?

 

Muslim protesters at Washington DC. Reuters. 

Arab and Muslim supporters of Joe Biden are angry at his support of Israel in their war against Hamas and it could cost him votes in the 2024 presidential race. Reuters. Muslims are demanding that Biden push for a cease fire in response to the war, which was launched by Hamas and involved brutal actions and murder. Muslims make up small but impactful number of voters, especially in three swing states, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Michigan and Pennsylvania Biden's margin of victory was slim enough that if Muslim voters stayed home he would have lost the states. Such voters would likely not go to Donald Trump but they could either stay home or vote 3rd party. Biden has been relatively pro-Muslim but his support of Israel has caused him to be labeled as a "Zionist" and has lead to some of his own staffers to quit. 

My Comment:

What is funny is that many members of the American Jewish community are angry with Biden and the Democrats as well. They are understandably upset that the voices on the left that are defending or even praising Hamas for their attack on Israel. Some of those folks may even leave the Democratic Party over it and could vote for Trump in 2024, especially if the war in Israel does not go well. 

As for these Muslim complaints, what did they think was going to happen? Though here are more out and out anti-Israel and anti-Semitic people on the left than the right, the Democratic Party is still fairly pro-Israel over all. There is a reason that The Squad has been targets for the right for a long timer, their anti-Jewish comments drive a wedge between the Democratic Party. 

These pro-Hamas Muslims are likely to be politically homeless. Neither the mainstream Republicans or Democrats are pro-Hamas or anti-Israel. Only on the fringes of the far right and far left do you see open support for Hamas like these folks are demanding. I can't see any candidate running appealing to these people and most likely they will stay home. 

I also don't really see Biden bending to their demands. Though he has been criticized as not being pro-Israel enough, he is genuinely on that side, even though his actions have struck me as totally incompetent. I think he does in fact like Israel, even though he's not a fan of Benjamin Netanyahu. Plus he doesn't want to anger his pro-Israel donors. 

There really isn't a move that Biden can do that won't piss either group off and given that Jews are a more important demographic for Democrats than Muslims, I don't see Muslims getting what they want here. 

I do think that this could cost Biden Michigan at least. Michigan has one of the largest Muslim communities in the United States and they aren't going to vote for Biden now. They aren't going to vote for Trump either, given that he supports Israel even more than Biden, so they are likely to stay home. It could hurt him in other states as well, Ohio and Pennsylvania were mentioned but I don't think they are the only ones. Wisconsin was thin enough that even angering the small number of Muslims in the state that it could cost Biden it as well.  

US is trying to delay Israel's offensive in order to secure more hostages.

 

Israeli vehicles, including a self propelled Howitzer. New York Post/EPA.

The United States is trying to delay Israel's offensive against Hamas in order to secure more hostages. New York Post. 200 hostages were taken by Hamas but it is unclear how many of them are still alive. Hamas released two American hostages on Friday and the Biden administration hopes more of the 10 Americans reported taken will be released. Israel is pressing the offensive though as they do not support a cease fire. They have been stepping up air and artillery attacks in preparation for the invasion. 

My Comment:

Israel's offensive has been delayed so long that many people are wondering, me included, if it is even going to happen now. The longer they wait the harder it will be to justify it to the international community. Hamas is still a threat but the memories of what they did on the 6th are already starting to fade. 

I do think that the Biden Administration is not acting in Israel's best interests. I understand wanting to rescue hostages but by doing so they are playing into the hands of Hamas. They know that the longer the offensive is delayed the better chances they have to, if not defeat Israel, ensure their long term survival. If the offensive is canceled they will be able to regroup, rearm and possibly launch even more attacks against Israel. And every day it is delays is to the advantage of Hamas. 

Indeed, I think Hamas knows this and that's the only reason they released the two American citizens they did. They know that Biden wants to pressure Israel and I doubt they have any motivation to release any more hostages. They just want to distract the Biden administration like a baby with a set a house keys. They might release one or two more but I don't see much beyond that. 

I am guessing a large number of the hostages are dead. Some of them were injured while they were captured while others may have been tortured or even raped to death. How many of them are still alive are is an open question but I am guessing most of them are long gone. 

There is an argument to be made that Israel invading Gaza could backfire on them. Urban combat, and all of Gaza is an urban area, is extremely difficult. So is fighting in tunnels and all of Gaza is riddled with tunnels. And the rubble they are creating? It makes for difficult combat as a path has to be cleared for armor to move through the streets and gives lots of cover for enemy infantry. I am expecting heavy casualties, though not quite on the scale of the battles seen in Ukraine. Keep in mind, Russia and Ukraine were near peer adversaries while Hamas and Israel are not, Israel has the technology advantage. 

The other problem is that Israel is damaging their economy by having all their reservists called up. Most of those soldiers are young and are the people that drive the economy. Having them sitting around doing nothing waiting for an offensive that might not even come is not a great move and Israel will be facing extreme pressure to either attack or stand down. 

It almost makes me wonder if that's the point for the Biden administration. Biden seems to be talking out of both sides of his mouth on Israel, he says he supports them but urges restraint and demands a delay to the offensive. He's moved major forces into the area but has given zero indication that he will actually help Israel when it comes down to it. And he says he wants peace but it's China and Russia that are talking to Israel and the Arab nations that surround it. I know that hostages are a consideration as well, but it's hard to figure out what Biden's actual goals are, assuming he has any. 

Finally, nobody is quite sure what Hezbollah is going to do. So far there have been skirmishes between them and Israel and between them and US bases as well. It seems clear that they are not going to invade Israel directly but if Israel does attack Gaza they could launch major missile and rocket attacks which would endanger the northern front. With major forces committed to Gaza it would limit what Israel could do in response. 

Regardless, the offensive is up in the air at this point. With the Biden administration pressuring Israel they could delay things indefinitely and there is a good chance it doesn't even happen. Should the attack happen there is a real chance the delay could make the offensive fail. This entire thing is a huge mess. 

Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are fighting each other for 2nd place in the polling.

 

Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. The Hill.

Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are now targeting each other as most polls show them fighting for 2nd place, far behind Donald Trump. The Hill. The two campaigns are sniping at each other due to Haley's stance on Palestinian refugees from the Israel-Hamas war. DeSantis accused Haley of wanting the United States to take in refuges while Haley says that isn't accurate. Haley has been gaining momentum due to her greater experience in foreign policy in a time where foreign policy has dominated the news. Haley now leads Ron DeSantis in some key states, like her home state of South Carolina, but is still behind DeSantis nationally. Both remain far behind Donald Trump, who gets around 50% of the support in most polling. 

My Comment:

This is kind of a funny fight between two also-rans. The only way that Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis will be the candidate in 2024 is if Donald Trump drops dead or inexplicably drops out of the race. Neither candidate has a realistic chance of being the candidate. 

I do think that the DeSantis team is being dishonest about what Haley actually said. She said that only about half of people in Gaza are anti-Semitic and the rest want to get rid of Hamas. I don't believe for a second that is true but she didn't say anything about bringing refugees into the United States. DeSantis and his team is lying about this. 

It's just another example of the DeSantis team floundering. During the pre-campaign period before DeSantis announced he was thought as a viable candidate that had a decent chance to beat Donald Trump. But ever since his disastrous campaign announcement via Twitter DeSantis has failed.

These kind of attacks are a big reason for it. DeSantis has been greatly hampered by his team. So many times have they attacked people with nonsense and it has backfired every time. Indeed, Trump supporters are probably telling Haley to get used to it because it's all DeSantis fans do, lie about their opposition. 

As for Haley, her problem is that she is a neocon on foreign policy. Republicans have largely rejected the neocons after Trump took over the party. People remember the period between 2016 and 2020 where we had no new wars and how much of an improvement it was over the foreign policy of Bush and Obama (not to mention Biden). Haley would just be more of the same. 

But at least Haley has been consistent in her terribleness on foreign policy, DeSantis has flip flopped on the issue. It's funny that his team accused Haley of being a flip-flopper after DeSantis was caught red handed doing the same thing on the Ukraine issue. It's a major reason why I ruled out supporting DeSantis if Trump somehow becomes unavailable, he's not trustworthy on the issue. 

Haley does seem like she is playing for a VP slot, which I would be opposed to, due to her foreign policy issues. She's focused more on taking down DeSantis than she is on trying to oppose Trump. She has mildly criticized Trump on occasion but also praises him and says she would support him if he is the candidate. Trump might reward that with a place in his administration, though I doubt she will get the VP slot. 

The elephant in the room is of course Donald Trump. The whole discussion is academic because Trump is pretty much bulletproof among his supporters. Like I said, unless Trump is dead, incapacitated or inexplicably decides to back out, he's the nominee and DeSantis and Haley will be historical footnotes at best. 

US Destroyer shoots down drones and missiles launched from Yemen while drones attack US troops in Syria.

 

The USS Carney in Istanbul. Reuters.

The American Destroyer, USS Carney, has shot down several drones and missiles launched by Houthi rebels in Yemen towards Israel. Reuters. The attack involved three cruise missiles and several drones. The Carney was stationed in the Red Sea and was in the pathway of the missiles, but is not believed to be the target for the attack. The US Navy has deployed significant forces to the region, including two carrier strike groups in the Mediterranean. 

In Syria, the al-Tanf garrison came under attack by drones. AP. One drone was shot down by forces on the ground but the other drone was able to cause minor injuries to American troops on the ground. Al-Tanf is located on the border with Jordan and is near supply routes that Iran has used to supply Hezbollah. Drone strikes have been hitting US bases in both Syria and Iraq. 

My Comment:

It looks like the war between Israel and Hamas is becoming a much larger regional conflict. Both of these attacks show a significant increase of who is actually involved in the conflict. Both the Houthi rebels and Iran's militias appear to be involved in the conflict now. 

I was actually surprised that the Houthis were able to launch missiles targeting Israel. I was aware that they had the Burkan 2 ballistic missiles, but they do not have the range to hit Israel. They do have a few Burkan-3 missiles but I wasn't aware they had cruise missiles, which this attack appears to have been. That means that the Houthis are actually a threat to Israel and given that there is a cease fire between them and Saudi Arabia they can launch all of them without worrying about what the Saudis do. 

Are they a real threat to Israel? Not really. These cruise missiles are small and vulnerable to anti-air defenses like the USS Carney just proved. The drones and ballistic missiles could be more of a threat but the drones are vulnerable to air defenses and I don't know that Yemen has too many Burkan missiles left. Even if some missiles and/or drones get through what they could actually accomplish is limited. Still, it's more pressure on Israel at a time where they can't really afford it. 

The attack on US bases in Syria in Iraq are probably more significant. The attack on al-Tanf was the only one that resulted in any injuries but it was far from the only one. Many bases came under attack by these drones and though they aren't that big of a threat they could be a prelude to bigger attacks. Hezbollah and other Iran-backed militias have attacked and even killed American troops. Such a thing is very possible. 

Why are these militias attacking places like al-Tanf? I think they are trying to move weapons to the border with Israel and wanted to disrupt al-Tanf so they couldn't do the same to the Iranian convoys. I do think that Hezbollah will be launching attacks into Israel if a land invasion happens. Since the US is on the same side as Israel it makes sense that they would try and prevent weapons from getting to the border. 

These attacks were very minor but it does show that Iran is getting more involved in the war. I don't think they will join the war directly, that would risk the invocation of the Samson Option. Iran does not want to see Tehran get nuked so they will be limited to using their proxies. Both the Houthis and Hezbollah are unofficial Iranian troops and there is at least some plausible deniability if they attack Israel. 

It also appears very likely that America will get dragged into this conflict whether we like it or not. Biden was begging for money for Israel and Ukraine today with his speech (that I didn't watch) and it seems pretty clear that Biden's willing to attack Iranian proxies. I don't really have a problem against limited strikes if US troops are on the line but what I worry about is Biden attacking government troops in Syria or even striking Iran directly. Biden's absolutely not all there and he is a bit of a warmonger in the best of times and I do not trust him to do the right thing on this issue. 

Insurrection? Anti-Israel protesters take over the US Capitol.

 

Protesters in the Capitol Rotunda. Fox News Digital. 

Anti-Israel protesters briefly took over the US Capitol with 300 arrest occurring. Fox News. The protest was by a group called "Jews Say Ceasefire Now" and they demanded a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. Around 350 protesters entered the Capitol along with more than 1000 protesting outside. Police arrested the protesters in the Capitol as it is illegal to protest in the Capitol building. Three people were arrested for assaulting police officers. 

My Comment:

By the standards set in the persecution of the January 6th protesters these people will rot in jail for years awaiting felony prosecutions. This was an attack on democracy right? Lock these people up and throw away the key right?

We all know that won't happen. At worst the three people that got arrested for assaulting cops will be prosecuted but more likely they will all be released without charges. I don't see there being any major convictions here despite their behavior being identical to the people on January 6th. We have a two tiered justice system now and only certain people are allowed to protest. 

The actual protest is fairly baffling. Jews being against Israel is nothing new, many American Jews bizarrely have sympathy for groups like Hamas and hate Israel because of the "colonizer" narrative, which makes zero sense to me in the first place. Why they would stick up for people that hate them is beyond me but isn't that much different than Jewish people supporting Ukraine, despite the huge numbers of Nazis fighting for them against Russia. 

The protest wasn't going to accomplish anything anyways. Congress is pretty obviously pro-Israel and is not going to do anything to try and force a cease fire. And even if they were in the mood to do something, there is little evidence that Israel would listen. They consider the Hamas attack to be their equivalent of 9/11 and will do what they can to ensure that it won't happen again. Congress has very little leverage to force a ceasefire. 

The protesters will get very little sympathy if they are going to prosecuted. Most people are still on the side of Israel, even after yesterday's hospital incident. Hamas committed several major atrocities that pretty much melted away any sympathy people might have had for them. These protesters, by calling for a cease fire, imply that they are ok with what Hamas did. That's not going to play well. 

It also shows the difference between these protesters and January 6th. The January 6th protesters were trying to get some kind of resolution to the worst run election in American history and had a strong argument that it was legit. And they were directly affected by the result of that mess of an election. These people? They are on the same side as terrorists and have no actual link to the people fighting in the war. But one of these groups got the book thrown and them while these protesters will likely be forgiven. That's life in Biden's America. 

Hundreds killed in hospital in Gaza with both Israel and Hamas blaming each other for the destruction.

 

Protesters in the West Bank respond to the incident. Reuters. 

Hundreds of people were killed in a blast at a hospital in Gaza with both Israel and Hamas blaming each other for the destruction. Reuters. The number of deaths is unclear but sources have said between 300 and 500 people are dead with many more wounded. Reaction to the incident has been extreme and greatly complicate any efforts to end the war. Joe Biden was due to meet with Arab leaders including the leaders of Jordan, Egypt and Palestine but those meetings have been canceled in the wake of the explosion. Hamas claims that the al-Ahli hospital was destroyed by an Israeli airstrike but Israel claims that the explosion was caused by malfunctioning rocket fired by Islamic Jihad. 

My Comment:

It matters little who is responsible for this incident, if anyone is actually responsible at all. The Arab world is furious over it and won't listen to arguments that this was a deliberate attack. And it's not like the other side is being very reasonable about it either, with some claiming this was a deliberate attack by the jihadists. 

What seems a lot more likely to me is that this was just a tragic accident caused when a rocket malfunctioned and crashed into the hospital. The people that fired it obviously bare responsibility but it's very unlikely that this was in any way a deliberate attack. It's just one of those crazy things that happened in a war, at least that is what I think is more likely. 

I also don't think either side has a real reason to blow up this hospital. The Israelis would have to know that doing so would backfire on them horrendously, the reaction we are seeing in the Arab World is entirely predicable. I guess it is possible that it was a tragic accident on their side as well, with a bomb going off course or something, but I can't imagine them doing this on purpose, even if there was a legit reason to bomb this hospital. And I also don't think Hamas or the Islamic Jihad would do this either, just because it would be hard to pull off, those rockets are not very accurate to say the least. 

People are wondering how the entire hospital appeared to blow up. I think it's fairly easy to explain, hospitals are full of oxygen for patients and diesel fuel for generators and if the rocket or bomb hit either of those systems the whole place could go up in flames. And if Hamas was indeed storing weapons in there it would make a lot of sense for the massive explosion that was shown in some of the videos we have seen from the disaster. 

It's actually totally irrelevant who is responsible for the disaster since most people are so entrenched. And it's not likely that the responsible party is going to come forward and say "my bad". And even if they did, why would anyone believe them? People don't trust either side and both sides have a major motivation to lie. 

Regardless of who is responsible for this tragedy, the reaction to it is extreme. We are already seeing widespread protests and riots and those will probably get worse over time. And Joe Biden's diplomatic effort with powers in the region? Those are dead as a doornail. 

Speaking of Biden, he should have absolutely called off his visit to Israel. The country is not going to be safe for him to visit and as much as I dislike him, if anything happens to him it will be a disaster for pretty much everyone. It would draw the United States into the war, no question, and hand leadership over to the one person on earth less qualified to have it than Joe Biden himself, Kamala Harris. And it's not even going to accomplish anything at this point, diplomacy isn't going to fix this. Hopefully nothing happens tomorrow at his visit...  

I am also expecting more terror attacks in response to this, probably from lone wolf attackers. The war is old enough that we might even see some organized terror attacks, but I will not be surprised if more than a few people use this as an excuse to grab a knife or drive a car into some people. They aren't going to care who was responsible for it, they are just going to want to get revenge. 

I also think that some people on the middle are going to buy the idea that Israel is responsible for this and change their opinion, regardless of what the actual truth is (which we probably won't ever know in the first place). Israel had widespread support due to the horrible atrocities Hamas committed but this incident will change the mind of at least a few people. Most people have picked a side and will stick with it but many people will indeed blame Israel for this. 

The media didn't help things. They blamed Israel before any information came out. They have since edited those stories, making it clear that they don't actually know what happened. Given the stakes here they did not help anything by making claims they could not back up... 

ISIS inspired terror attack hits Belgium and leaves two Swedes dead, suspect still at large.

 

Swedish soccer fans reacting to the attack. BBC/AFP.

An ISIS inspired terror attack has hit Belgium and left at least two people dead with the suspect still at large. BBC. The attack killed two Swedish tourists who were in town for a soccer match between Sweden and Belgium. A third person was injured in the shooting. The suspect was armed with a rifle and was filmed shooting people. A video was posted by the shooter on social media where he claimed he killed "three people" and that he did it in the name of Allah. As of this writing the attacker is still at large. 

BREAKING: A man who allegedly claimed to be an ISIS member has shot and killed 2 people in Brussels just days after former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal called on Muslims to take action.

Belgian newspaper Het Laatste Nieuws claims the man used an automatic rifle and was avenging… pic.twitter.com/WmiWPGWwPz

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 16, 2023

My Comment: 

I don't think that this was directly a result of the Israel-Hamas war. This attack seems like it was a bit more sophisticated than the average lone wolf attacker. The attacker had what looked like a full auto rifle, which looked like it was an M-16 or M-4, and you can't just get those quickly in Europe. It's not difficult but you need money and connections to a gun dealer and that requires a bit of sophistication and planning. 

Given the war in Israel is not even 10 days old, I don't know if that is enough time to put an attack like this together. It's possible given all he needed was a rifle, some ammo and, apparently, a scooter, but my guess is that this was a longer term plan put into motion. 

I do think that it is significant that the attacker was using an M-4 or M-16 as opposed to an AK. In the past most European guns were AK models as they were left over from the various wars in Eastern Block countries, like Serbia. To see an M-16 derived rifle in an attack makes me think that this was smuggled into Western Europe from Ukraine, given the huge numbers of rifles we have sent them there and the huge amount of corruption happening there. It is no surprise that an American rifle ended up in the hands of a terrorist. 

It is also notable that this attacker was praising ISIS and not Hamas. That is not surprising since Hamas usually isn't one to launch attacks outside of the Middle East but ISIS certainly is. It's unclear how deeply involved ISIS was with this attack. Given how ISIS has lost pretty much all of their territory and are essentially a shell I don't she how much help they could have given this attacker. 

Still, I wouldn't be surprised if we do see a resurgence of terrorism. ISIS has certainly fallen off of the radar. They are absolutely no longer the number one target of the various intelligence agencies as most of the focus has been on Ukraine/Russia internationally and ordinary citizens domestically. That means that they had a chance to regroup without the fear of a drone strike.

We may see more of these attacks soon. Success breeds imitation and the Hamas attack in Israel will inspire terrorists across the world. So will this attack, which technically isn't over yet since the attacker hasn't been caught yet. ISIS may not have the ability to launch massive terror attacks like they used to and they are unlikely to reach the heights they reached between 2014 and 2016, but they will have no shortage of recruits.  

The FBI says terror threat fallout from Israel-Hamas war is increasing...

 

IDF soldiers near the border of Israel. Fox News/AFP.

Director of the FBI Christopher Wray says that the domestic terror threat from the Israel-Hamas war is increasing. Fox News. Wray said there have been an increase of threats and encouraged vigilance due to those threats. This is a change in tune compared to Wray's previous comments where he said there were no specific threats due to the war. The warning comes after heightened tensions after Hamas declared a "Day of Jihad" on Friday. 

At least one politically motivated hate crime did occur over the weekend, with a landlord in Illinois attacking a tenant and her son because they were Palestinian. CBS News. The woman was severely injured in the stabbing while her six year old son was killed by the attacker, a 71 year old. The man has been charged with murder and hate crimes and was accused of using anti-Muslim slurs during the attack. 

My Comment:

It's very clear that tensions are high over the war between Israel and Hamas, and I am actually surprised how little violence there had been in response to it. Other than the incident in Illinois, the only other attacks outside of the combat area I am aware of is the murder of a teacher in France and an attack on the Israel embassy in China. Given how angry both sides are you would have thought that more people would have been killed. 

The murder in Illinois seems like a one-off incident. The man seemed deranged and decided to punish a six year old for the actions of a terror group that the child didn't even understand. He obviously wasn't part of any larger group or terror campaign. It's just a lone wolf attacker that killed a couple people he knew because he was angry about the war. 

I have said for awhile now that the threat really isn't from major terror groups like ISIS or al-Qaeda but from lone wolf attackers. Given the genuine amount of surprise from pretty much everyone about this war I doubt any major terror group had an opportunity to plan a major attack, so any major terror attack that happens would have been in the pipeline already. Even Hezbollah, was caught by surprise by this war and have had trouble organizing their forces to join it, and they are in the region. 

The threat could be from both sides of the conflict, as the attack in Illinois shows. Given how horrible Hamas behaved in Israel it would not be surprising if people go "eye for an eye" against Muslim and Palestinian targets. Radical Muslims are obviously the bigger threat, along with their far left allies, but it's very possible that an attack could come from either side of this conflict. 

What really strikes me that there hasn't been any attacks on rallies or protests. People are angry enough when they aren't riled up but with most of these protests having counter-protests I am surprised they have not devolved into active brawls. And they are very obvious targets for a lone wolf attacker of either stripe. It's why I strongly advise avoiding going to any of these rallies regardless of their politics. People are just way too angry about this war and tensions are very high. 

Russia launches major attack on Avdiivka

 

An Ukrainian soldier in Avdiivka. BBC.

Russia has launched a major attack on Avdiivka, a critical city near Donetsk. BBC. At least three battalions of Russian troops are involved with the attack along with air and artillery support. Avdiivka is a critical city that threatens the city of Donetsk and Ukrainian control of the city has made Russia unable to take advantage of the city. Avdiivka is also important as a symbol for the Ukrainians, much like the city of Bakhmut, which eventually fell to the Russians. Russia is not attacking the city directly but is instead pushing to the north and south of it in an attempt to surround the city. Russia has increased offensive operations in the past weeks.  

My Comment:

Though the Israel-Hamas conflict has certainly stolen the headlines, the fact remains that the Russia-Ukraine war is entering a new phase. Ukraine's summer offensive has sputtered out and failed and now the Russians are on the offensive. And Avdiivka is their target. 

The BBC report is mostly accurate as to why the city is important. It is a major symbol for Ukraine and it does indeed threaten the city of Donetsk. I expect the Ukranians to defend it the same way they defended Bakhmut, even when it was clear that the battle was lost and continuing would be stupid. 

What the BBC leaves out is that Avdiivka has been used to attack Donetsk via artillery. Those attacks generally have little to do with militarily necessity, they are often targeting civilians. Russia obviously wants to stop these attacks on civilians so that's another major reason why they are pushing hard to take this city. 

The Russians have actually made quite a bit of progress in attacking the area with their attack in the north having more success than the others. They are running out of time though as Ukraine's mud season is rapidly approaching. Once that happens it will be very difficult to move up armor and artillery and it will probably cause the offensive to sputter out. 

But that might not be a bad thing for Russia. I can see them doing the exact thing they did in Bakhmut where they surround a large number of enemy troops in a "caldron" where not only are the troops in the city attacked by artillery but so are the supply lines. If the Ukrainians don't withdraw, which they won't due to the strategic and symbolic value of the city, they risk losing huge numbers of troops, troops they can ill afford. 

The war does not go well for Ukraine as they are likely to be cut off from support soon. That was a risk before the war in Israel broke out but now with the war happening much of what was earmarked for them will probably go to Israel instead. I am guessing, if they have any intelligence at all, they will stop offensive operations, withdraw to more defensible positions and try to wait out the Russians. Even if they did that they would still almost certainly lose but my guess is that they will still try to launch offensives even if they lack to troops, weapons and equipment to do so. 

Did Iran have a role in planning the Hamas attack against Israel?

 

Iran's leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Reuters.

Iran has denied having a role in the planning of the Hamas attack against Israel. Reuters. Ayatollah Khamenei said Iran had no involvement in the attack but praised the planners of it and said it did irreparable damage to Israel's military and intelligence services. Iran does provide monetary support to Hamas and has given them weapons. The United States blamed Iran for the attack but did not provide evidence that they actually helped. 

For their part, Hamas denies that Iran had a role in planning the attack on Israel. AP. Ali Barakeh, an exiled leader of Hamas, said that only a few top commanders knew anything about the attack and that Iran was not filled in. Barakeh also said that Iran and Hezbollah, Iran's proxy army, would join the war if Gaza faced antihalation. 

US intelligence officials say that Iranian officials were surprised by the attack. CBS News. The intel officials made the statements to multiple news agencies. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that Iran was still responsible for the attack due to providing training and support to Hamas but did not say that Iran had anything directly to do with the attack. 

My Comment:

A lot of people are blaming Iran for this attack and are even suggesting we go to war with Iran because of it. But there doesn't seem to be any direct evidence that Iran was involved in the planning of the Hamas attack at all. 

To be fair, everyone knows that Iran sends help to Gaza and Hamas. They have provided weapons, supplies and training to members of Hamas and may be a major reason why Hamas was so well equipped during this attack. Given the actions of Hamas they are obviously one of the bad guys in this situation. 

But the idea that Iran planned the attack appears to be totally false. Indeed, that should have been incredibly obvious due to the total lack of participation of Iran's proxy army, Hezbollah. Hezbollah did not participate in the attack and had to scramble to launch a minor artillery attack one day after the attack. Hezbollah has stepped up efforts since then but they have not been mobilized fully and are far from joining Hamas in attacks on Israel. Had Iran known about the attack I can't see them not joining the war on day one. 

Given that Iran, Hamas and US intelligence services are all saying the same thing I think the idea that Iran was involved in the planning of the attack is pretty much debunked at this point. They certainly deserve some culpability for giving assistance to Hamas, but that's about as far as I would go. 

With that being said, I do think it's very possible that Hezbollah will join the war. Indeed, they are skirmishing with Israel already. They have had a few artillery duels and have also destroyed an Israeli APC. 

Footage of the Islamic Resistance's operation in the occupied #Lebanese town of Salha, in which they targeted an Israeli Zelda armored personnel carrier at al-Sadah site West of the town.#Palestine #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/ZTksoerA71

— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) October 10, 2023

Iran might just decide to join the war, either via their proxies or with their own weapons. Hezbollah is already kind of involved but they could fully mobilize and attack northern Israel in force, which would open another front for the Israelis and cause some serious damage. It's also possible that the Yemeni Houthi rebels could join the war as well. Iran has provided them with a large number of ballistic missiles. Those missiles, the Burkan 2, do not have the range to hit Israel from Yemen directly, but they could be shipped somewhere, like Lebanon or Syria where they could easily hit Israel. That would take a considerable amount of time and effort though. 

If Iran does decide to join the war the question if they were involved in the planning becomes rather moot. Once they are a party to the war then Israel can strike them as well, though one wonders how the two countries would attack each other directly given the large number of countries between them. I would assume that they could ferry troops from Iran via Iraq and Syria but they would be vulnerable to air strikes. 

None of this is very good. If Iran does join the war it could draw other groups into the war, including the United States. The last thing we need is a major war right now, especially when our weapons stocks are so depleted due to very unwisely funding the insane war against Russia in Ukraine. 

Israel launches massive airstrikes in preparation for ground invasion.

 

Palestinians inspect the damage in Gaza City. Fox News/AFP/Getty.

Israel has launched massive airstrikes in Gaza in preparation for a ground invasion. Fox News. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that they had only just begun to hit Hamas targets in response to their offensive. Netanyahu said what they would do in Gaza would "reverberate for generations". Israel has given warning to civilians in Gaza as they strike targets in the enclave. Hamas has said they will execute hostages in response to further airstrikes. Israel has said that most Hamas militants have been driven out of their territory and that they have secured all border towns that Hamas had occupied. They claim to have killed 1500 militants in Israel alone. 

My Comment:

The war in Israel continues to rage. It's very clear that this isn't going to be like previous wars between Israel and its enemies. The gloves appear to be off and Israel is going to destroy anything that looks like a threat. The damage that is being done in Gaza is extreme. 

I'm not surprised that the gloves are off now, Hamas went full ISIS in Israel if reports are to believed. What is undeniable is that a large number of innocent civilians were murdered in cold blood, raped or kidnapped and that means that there is going to be retribution. I'm not sure I believe all reports of atrocities, the report about a bunch of babies being decapitated seems so over the top I'd don't buy it, but it's clear that a lot of evil things happened during the Hamas offensive. 

Support mostly seems to be on Israel's side. That's not universal, there are a lot of people on the political fringes that do support Hamas or at least Palestine. But those people are getting drowned out and are in a position that is extremely hard to defend due to Hamas and their actions. The media appears to be very much on the side of Israel. 

This is good news for Israel as it will give them cover to do whatever they want in Gaza. I don't think things are going to be pretty there. Though Israel is providing warning to civilians before they bomb, realistically a lot of civilians are going to be caught in the crossfire in this bombing campaign. And things will get even worse when Israel invades Gaza. 

I really don't know if they will keep the general level of support they have now. Their campaign in Gaza is going to be very tough on civilians and could end with a lot of people dead. And some of those people might be killed on purpose, given the circumstances. I am guessing that some people in the IDF are going to want revenge for what has happened and when that happens I expect Hamas to use it as propaganda. 

I personally don't really like either side in this war but I have never had much sympathy for the Palestinians, largely because they act with massive brutality at one moment but then play the victim after Israel strikes back. I'm not too fond of Israel either since this is a problem of their own making. Any sane society would either kill, remove or integrate the people of the land they conquer and Israel's refusal to do so has ensured that the region would be destabilized to this degree. Still, Israel's behavior is a lot less brutal and a lot more understandable than Hamas, so I'm not exactly on their side. They strike me as being similar to the Syrian Civil War, with it not being a black and white conflict, but a grey vs black, with Israel being morally grey while Hamas being almost as morally black as ISIS was. 

As for the invasion itself, I don't know how well it will go. Israel is doing a lot of damage to Hamas but they are also causing massive amounts of destruction. The combat environment that will cause when the IDF invades is not going to be good. Urban fighting is tough enough as it is. It gets a lot worse when you are fighting in ruble. 

Plus, the Ukraine conflict shows how utterly deadly modern combat is. Hamas is not a near-peer when it comes to Israel, but they do appear to be fairly well equipped. There is already footage out there of Hamas destroying a Merkava tank with a drone and a bomb and I am guessing they can do the same thing since drones are pretty cheap. 

It does look like Hamas is going to be completely cut off from the rest of the world. Obviously all the border crossing with Israel are closed and Israel has largely destroyed the crossing into Egypt. They are even claiming to have destroyed the tunnels that Hamas has used to smuggle things in from Egypt for years now. 

The biggest question now is what Hezbollah does. They have already had some skirmishes but if they attack in force then Israel might be in trouble. Even with the 300,000 reservists they have mobilized they would be hard pressed to fight a war on two fronts. Hezbollah is also a more formidable army than Hamas and are battle hardened due to fighting in the Syrian Civil War. If they join the war then things will get a lot tougher. 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drops out of Democrat race, will run as an Independent candidate for 2024.

 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. CNBC/Getty.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has dropped out of the race for the Democratic candidate for President and will run as an Independent candidate for 2024. CNBC. Kennedy said he didn't have a chance against entrenched interests in the Democratic Party so left the "rigged" primary race for the party. Kennedy was far behind in the polls with Joe Biden, who has the advantage of incumbency. Kennedy is also in the political wilderness in the Democratic Party because he questions vaccines, Coronavirus restrictions and support for Ukraine. Those views have given him some support from people on the right who would normally reject Democratic candidates. However, the Biden administration views Kennedy's run as a threat to them as he could function as a spoiler which could allow Trump to win in 2024. 

My Comment:

Despite the fact that Joe Biden is a very unpopular candidate and polling indicates that Democrats want almost anyone else to run instead of Biden, apparently RFK Jr. isn't one of them. He never really had much of a chance in the first place, challengers against incumbents almost never win in primary races and that is nothing new. 

Of course, RFK Jr. is pretty far out there in terms of his beliefs. Instead of being against the Coronavirus vaccines specifically, he's against pretty much all vaccines, which is a position few people actually support. Being anti-Ukraine funding is also not something a lot of Democrats are on board with. 

RFK Jr. was also successfully tarred as an anti-Semite and racist for claiming that the Coronavirus was less dangerous to Chinese and Jewish people. There is some evidence that some ethnic groups are more vulnerable to the virus but the way he said it left an opening to people that wanted his head. 

Still, RFK Jr. does have an audience. It's a fairly motely crew of anti-vaxxers and old school leftists that are sick and tired of everything Biden is doing. He does have more support than some of the also-rans in the Republican. There are a lot of people that are willing to vote for him. 

He doesn't have a realistic chance of winning though. Most people will stay inside the two party system and the most a third party candidacy can do is essentially decide the president. It has happened before. I know a lot of people blame Jill Stein, somewhat unfairly, for Trump winning in 2016, but what I am thinking of is the two runs of Ross Perot that ended up giving the Democrats control of the White House twice in the 1990s. 

The $1 million question is who Kennedy's run hurts more. I've heard arguments for both sides. The CNBC article says that Biden considers Kennedy a huge threat and there are more than a few Democrats that supported him during the primary race. Some of those people will continue following him as an independent. And in what could be a close election it might be enough to torpedo Biden. 

But I do think that RFK Jr. could take a few Republican votes as well. There is a certain breed of anti-Trump Republican that absolutely despises Trump because of his role in Operation Warp Speed, which developed the Coronavirus vaccines. They are mostly Ron DeSantis supporters and if you listen to them they will never vote for Trump again, even if it means another term of Joe Biden. Once DeSantis inevitably drops out it's possible they will go for RFK Jr. on his stance on vaccines alone, even though he's not at all conservative. 

My gut says that RFK Jr. still takes more away from Biden than Trump. The vast majority of Republican voters are happy with him and want him to win and even most of the people that want someone else will vote for him if he's the candidate. Biden is historically unpopular and has failed at almost every level and it's mostly blind partisanship that keeps people supporting him. And the idea that anti-vaxxers are all Republicans is a myth, there are many on the Democrat side as well. Indeed, pre-pandemic if you said anti-vaxxer I would have thought it was a Democrat. 

Complicating matters is the long shot campaign of Cornell West. He's a far left looney that will draw at least some progressives away from Joe Biden. He's got a totally different appeal than RFK Jr. and unlike him, he is extremely unlikely to draw any voters from the Republican Party at all. If both candidates run and draw votes away from Biden, who very will might lose in a two man race between him and Trump, it's very possible Biden gets kicked out of the White House. 

2023 fishing year in review.

 

This post might be slightly premature as I may go fishing once or twice more this year, depending on weather and how busy I am, but I thought it might be fun to go over my year in fishing. This year was hit or miss in terms of fishing. Unlike the past two years I didn't catch any new species as far as I am aware and I had several rough trips where I barely caught anything. But it was also a very good year in other ways. 

If 2021 and 2022 were years of big catfish for me, this year was the year of smallmouth bass. I caught tons of them this year and broke my personal best so many times that I am not exactly sure how many I caught. I caught 4-6 of them in the 12 to 16 inch range, which all shattered my previous personal best, which was actually pretty embarrassing, though I hadn't even caught a smallmouth bass before last year. 

This year was pretty different. Why? Well for one thing I went to places where smallmouths are common. I did most of my fishing in rivers as opposed to lakes and that made them a lot easier to find. Surprisingly pretty much all of the Smallmouths I caught were on live bait, either worms or minnows and not lures. Indeed, the minnows allowed me to catch a decent sized smallmouth from a highly pressured area that I had only caught tiny ones before. I didn't get a measurement on it because I was getting mugged by a pelican at the time. 

As for other fish, I did catch a decent walleye in spring, though it really doesn't count since I kinda snagged it. I hooked it by the gill plate so it didn't really count, though it was fun to catch and was around 24 inches. I also caught a decent pike around 25 inches and I caught the first sauger I have caught since childhood. It wasn't a huge one or anything but it was fun to catch. 

What I didn't catch for the most part was catfish. I didn't even see a flathead this year and I only caught a couple of channel cats, with the only decent one being about 6lbs, caught on a surprisingly tiny chunk of nightcrawler. The big cats that I was catching the last couple of years just weren't around, largely due to the fact that there was a big die-off at my most common fishing spot. Still, I had a pole out for catfish almost every time I went fishing and hardly caught any. 

Fishing was also pretty bad during much of the year. I had a really good spring but after that things got rough. I think it had a lot to do with the weather. We had essentially zero rain all summer, most of Wisconsin is in drought conditions. That meant the water level was extremely low pretty much everywhere I fished. That really limited access to fish and made things a lot more difficult. 

Probably the biggest obstacle was the fact that I was essentially working overtime almost every weekend since May. I just didn't get the chances to go fishing as much as I want and a lot of time when I did get to go it wasn't under the best conditions. Indeed, that's why I am writing this post now instead of November when I usually stop fishing, I honestly don't know if I will get to go since I am working two out of the next three weekends. 

As for next year, I am hoping that I both have more chances to go fishing and that the water levels recover compared to 2023. I also have some spots to check out that didn't really work out this year because of the lower water levels and I am excited to see them under more normal conditions, if things actually do improve. I also want to try using minnows at some of the places I have gone fishing at. They worked really good at the one place I tried them and there are a lot more places I can go with them.