Armenia signs peace deal with Azerbaijan.

 

Armenians protest the peace deal in Yerevan. The Guardian/AP.

Armenia has signed a peace deal with Azerbaijan, which will end the war between the two countries. The Guardian. Armenia's Prime Minster signed the deal with the governments of Azerbaijan and Russia. Azerbaijan had taken back much of the territory they lost to Armenia during their war in the 1990's. The Azerbaijani's were focused on taking back parts of the breakaway Nagorno Karabakh region and took the 2nd largest city there, Shusha. The Armenian people appear to be furious with the peace deal and have started major protests. Armenia lost some of their territory outside of the disputed region and had to open a roadway that connected two pieces of Azerbaijan territory. Russia will deploy more than 1000 peacekeepers to help enforce the deal. 

My Comment:

I'm far from an expert on this conflict but it sure looks like Armenia lost this war. The deal that was signed by Armenia's Prime Minster was very favorable for Azerbaijan and they lost quite a bit of territory. The fact that their ally, Russia, brokered the deal shows how poor the Armenian's position actually is. 

As expected the Armenian people aren't happy with this deal. I don't think they realized that their forces appear to have lost the war. Plus their ally Russia isn't having any of this and wants the war to end. They aren't going to be able to continue the war without the support of the government. It's possible that this is bad news for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, but time will tell what happens. It might cost him his job but for now it seems his position is still secure. 

I think this peace deal is for real though. I know that at least three cease fires, including one brokered by the Untied States, have fallen apart. But I don't think this will happen this time. The Armenian government is calling it quits so there isn't really a way to continue the war. They have lost the will to fight so unless the Azerbaijani's decide to continue it the war should end. Since they accomplished most of their goals and got a bunch of territory back I don't know why they would continue the fight. 

I will say that this conflict was almost totally ignored due to the Coronavirus pandemic, the continuing riots and the US election. That was probably a mistake as this was a major war that could have spiraled out of control. Armenia is a Russian ally and Azerbaijan is an ally of Turkey and if things had gone bad the war could have drawn in those two countries and with it NATO and the United States. Thankfully the worse case scenario was never likely and never came to pass. 

Hopefully this peace deal will hold. 2020 has been enough of a mess, having yet another war pop off was not a good thing and I sincerely hope that this one is finally over. Around 4000 people have died in this conflict and that is far too many.