President Donald Trump and former Vice President Biden.
As you are aware, the Presidential election is only days away. This will likely be my last serious post on the election unless something huge happens tomorrow. I will also be voting on Tuesday and I will almost certainly write a "voting experience" post that day, unless the lines are out of this world and I am waiting for hours. I will also note that I likely won't have a post up late Tuesday/early Wednesday like I did in 2016. That year I took the day off but this year I did not, so if there is going to be a reaction post expect it on Wednesday night. All that being said, this will likely be my last post on who is going to win and who is going to lose.
Click the map to create your own at I think that this is the current situation. There are only really six states that I'm not comfortable in calling at this point. I think that it's very clear now that President Trump is going to win in Florida due to the early vote not going the way the Democrats want and Arizona seems safe now as well, given that Trump is now ahead. The only state that I am not sure about that I don't have listed as a toss up is North Carolina, and there only because they are counting ballots long after the election is over with and the potential for voter fraud is high.
Under this scenario President Trump either needs to pick up just one of the Midwestern states and he's in. He can also pick up the combination of New Hampshire and Nevada to win as well. Biden has to make a clean sweep of all those states to win (or limit President Trump to flipping just Nevada or New Hampshire).
So what do I think of the swing states? I'm not sure. Wisconsin seems fairly likely to stay in Trump's column, but I mostly base that on the fact that I live here. I also think that the latest polling from Iowa, which mirrors the polling in 2016, shows that the Midwest might be safe as I think that the other Midwest states will follow their lead. I think Minnesota is the most likely 2016 state to flip given the riots and if it does then Biden is finished.
Michigan is another story. I think President Trump should win there but there are a couple of things that make me nervous about that state. The most concerning is that Gretchen Whitmer is still somehow governor there. She's almost a comic book villain in how evil she is and if anyone is dumb enough to use blatant voter fraud, it's her. Plus Michigan was spared the worst of the riots, even though there was economic damage from the lockdowns.
As for Pennsylvania, it looks like Trump has the advantage there. It's hard to tell though as it will likely come down to if Philadelphia can out vote the rest of the state. Nobody outside of that city will like Biden after his debate meltdown and the riots, but I also don't trust the state and city government there. Voter fraud could be a problem here too, but I think I would put the state as lean Trump.
Nevada and New Hampshire are true toss ups for me. My gut says that Trump flips Nevada due to the fact that the state has been devastated by lockdowns and needs tourism to survive. Voter fraud here is a concern as well, but I think most Nevadans will vote with their pocketbooks, the state can't survive a Joe Biden lockdown. As for New Hampshire, I have no idea. Most people seem to be ignoring the state, and that includes both campaigns. What little I have seen has been somewhat positive for President Trump (outside of polling at least) but it could go either way.
Above is my actual state-by-state prediction for the 2020 election. As you can see I think President Trump will win by a decent amount but won't really improve much on his 2016 results. Under this scenario he will pick up two new states, Nevada and New Hampshire, but that will be balanced out by him losing Michigan. That's what I think will happen on Tuesday.
Can Biden still win though? Of course. It's possible I am reading the swing states wrong and the polling isn't as bad as everyone thinks it is. And I am concerned about voter fraud in several states that could potentially flip several states. And if North Carolina comes into play for Biden then all bets are off. But I think a President Trump win is more likely then not at this point.
But what I do think is obvious is that the Democrat dream of a "blue wave" election is dead for sure. It seems very clear that they will not flip Texas, Georgia and Florida at this point and without those states it can hardly be called a landslide unless they flip every single swing state I posted about above. That seems almost impossible at this point and if it happens I am going to have no idea how it happened.
So why do I think that President Trump will win in spite of the polling showing him losing. As I posted about before, I think the polls are nonsense at best and deliberate lies at worst. If the margin of error is the same as it was in 2016 then President Trump wins. And I personally believe that the polling is even worse now then it was then due to the shy and angry Trump voters not showing up in polling and giving Biden fake support.
I also think that the early voting numbers are not good for Democrats. Vote by mail was supposed to massively increase their turnout but early voting numbers but we simply haven't seen that. They are in the lead in many states but that is nothing new. In short, the numbers should have been a lot less close if they were going to pull off the win.
And I just can't imagine Biden winning when he has next to no support at his events. He and his proxies like Kamala Harris and Barack Obama, are totally failing to bring in crowds. Some of this might be due to the virus but that excuse hasn't prevented President Trump from getting tens of thousands of people at his events. At some point you can't use the virus as an excuse and I think that point is now.
Trump's voter enthusiasm is like nothing I have seen before. His supporters are waiting hours in the rain and cold to see his kids give a speech. They are hundreds of spontaneous events popping up across the country, boat parades, truck convoys and actual rallies on the streets. Even Biden events are getting swamped by Trump supporters to the point where the campaign ran out of Texas with its tail between its legs.
So what should we be watching for on Tuesday night?
-Florida is likely to be a bellwether state. If Biden somehow takes the state it's over for President Trump. But if Trump wins it his path to election is pretty clear.
-New Hampshire will likely be a big sign if President Trump is winning big. If he flips it then you know that he is doing well.
-There is a decent chance that Pennsylvania won't be called on Tuesday night. However, at that point it might not matter, especially if Trump wins in the rest of the Midwest, who will almost certainly have their votes tabulated right away given they are not accepting late ballots.
-Arizona too is a bellwether state. If Biden flips it he might be good but if it goes for Trump then Biden's almost certainly finished.
-We should know who the winner is. Many of the mail in ballots have been received and will be counted quickly. Even if Pennsylvania drags their feet their will likely be enough states called to determine a winner.
-I'm not expecting violence or riots on Tuesday night. The election will probably be called, but it will be called late at night. The east cost is a possible exception due to time zones but they have been in a constant state of riot for months now. All bets are off on Wednesday if President Trump wins or the election is somehow so close that it hasn't been called yet.
-We should also know who wins the popular vote as well.
And a few more predictions:
President Trump wins 60%
President Trump wins in a landslide (ie better then my prediction map). 15%
Joe Biden wins. 24%
Joe Biden wins in a landslide 1%
President Trump wins the popular vote 25%
President Trump loses the popular vote but wins the election 50%
Joe Biden wins the popular vote and wins the election 15%
Joe Biden loses the popular vote but wins the election 10%
Something really stupid happens like a tie, recount or faithless electors deciding the election 1%.
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