I wasn't worried about nuclear war until... Biden announces Americans should not worry about nuclear war.

 

Joe Biden speaking at a Black History Month event. Yahoo News/Reuters

Joe Biden says that Americans should not be worried about nuclear war. Yahoo News. A reporter for CBS asked Biden the question at a Black History Month event and Biden responded with a curt "no". Vladimir Putin increased the alert level of his nuclear forces to their highest level in response to Western sanctions against him due to the war in Ukraine. Other US officials have downplaying Putin's warning saying that war with Russia is not in the cards. The United States has also said that they have not raised their nuclear alert status. 

My Comment:

Though I agree that nuclear war is unlikely, these statements by the US government is making me nervous. Biden tends to get major issues like this wrong and I don't trust him at all. If he says not to worry about something, that means I worry about it. These folks don't have any credibility. 

I do think that nuclear war is unlikely. Despite the shrillness from the Western Media I haven't seen anything to prove that Vladimir Putin is acting in an irrational matter. He had valid reasons to invade Ukraine and his actions since then have mostly made sense, though I don't understand why he increased the alert level. My guess is that it's just deterrence. 

Is there a scenario where nuclear war happens? Sure. If a skirmish broke out between Russian troops and NATO forces it could spiral into a war. If the war goes so poorly that Russia's borders are actually threatened they could use nukes to stop any advance. And if there was some kind of internal revolution  where Putin's life is threatened he might just decide if he's going to die anyways... 

But none of those things seem likely. Russia's fire discipline has been fairly good and the war is actually going pretty well for them. And I can't see any internal revolution happening, as Putin remains popular even if the war doesn't appear to be, though given how Russia has been cut off from social media, who knows? 

I actually think that there is a bigger chance of the United States or our allies launching an attack. Not because I think it is likely, just because I don't trust Joe Biden to make good decisions as he has not made a one during his presidency. Though he has ruled out a no-fly zone so far, I can see him doing something like that which would lead to a larger war and a possible nuclear exchange. Poland offering to let Ukraine use their air bases could do the same thing. 

I don't really feel comfortable making predictions on this as I did get the actual war breaking out wrong. I was about at sure that war between Russia and Ukraine would never happen as I am now that a nuclear war would not happen. Given that I was wrong about the first thing, I could very well be wrong again. 

With all that being said, I do think that the actual threat of a nuclear war is not as bad as people make it out to be. I, and pretty much everyone I know, would likely die but countries that were not nuked would probably be ok. There would be many survivors in the United States as most of the nukes would be targeting military facilities. And for most countries in the Southern Hemisphere would be mostly not be directly affected. It would probably be the end of western civilization but humanity would survive. 

So how close is this situation to nuclear war compared to other crisis's, like the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Able Archer 83 crisis? Not even close as far as I am concerned. In both of those cases the principle conflict was between the Soviet Union and the United States directly, in this case it's Russia vs Ukraine, with no direct conflict between Russia and the United States. 

Again, I don't think nuclear war is likely. Biden saying one isn't coming is disconcerting to say the least but honestly, I can't see it happening. Everyone has way too much to lose right now and given the fact that Putin appears to be winning the war I can't see him doing anything so stupid. I could, of course, be wrong, but we should all hope that I am right... 

My thoughts on the current state of the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

 

The current situation in Ukraine. By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsCity control sources: Cities and towns during the Russo-Ukrainian War, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141

As you are aware, the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. The war continues and there is a lot to talk about. I'm going to avoid specifics due to the nature of this warfare so I am going to stick to more general observations. Apologies in advance for the listicle format. 

1. The war seems to be going fairly well for the Russians. As you can see from the map above the Russians have made quite a bit of  progress, especially in the south. A lot of people in the media are saying that Russia is losing because they have yet to capture Kiev or any of the other major cities. To that I say it's only day four of the invasion, of course they haven't. The fact that they are even threatening Kiev is a pretty big accomplishment, regardless what you think of the war.

That doesn't mean that the war has been won. They could possibly lose fairly easily. I don't think that Ukraine has any ability to push the Russians out but they can make the juice not worth the squeeze. This war is extremely costly in terms of lives, money and material and the Russian government may decide that it's not worth it. And given the peace overtures we have seen today, we might see a diplomatic end to the war. 

It's also important to note that it's extremely difficult to discover what is actually happening in Ukraine. Most information is propaganda and it's very hard to separate the wheat from the chaff. I'm basing my belief on Russia winning largely on where Russian units have been spotted, not on what the media is saying.  

2. Pro-Ukraine propaganda is completely out of control to the point that some of it is just sad. We have seen video game footage passed as real, footage from the 2014 conflict passed as recent and some obvious and over the top lies. I personally don't believe any of it, largely because it's pretty easy to debunk. That doesn't mean that all the footage from Ukraine is fake, far from it, but there is a narrative being built here and it has little to do with reality. 

And the tone of the propaganda? It's so shrill that I'm starting to want the Russians to win. It's like all the people that liked canceling people over mean tweets and shaming people over mask wearing moved on to the next virtue signaling campaign, but this time they have the support of the CIA and State Department. Trust me, you aren't a good person just because you support Ukraine, indeed, it shows you don't really understand the issue. 

3. Pro-Russia propaganda appears to be non-existent. This is surprising to me as Russia is fairly good at propaganda so you would expect a lot of viral videos. But there has been next to nothing from the Russian side. Why? I am not sure but I am guessing they are trying to keep their troops disciplined and keep from having any bad publicity. If that's the case I think it's a mistake since the coverage of the war is about as biased against them as it could possibly be. The other choice is that they are paranoid about their troops movements being discovered. 

I do think it's important to note that the Russians have banned their people from all western social media. That alone explains why we haven't seen as much propaganda for their side. Again, this seems like an own goal on this part because much of warfare is about perceptions and right now the perception is that Russia is both losing and evil and they aren't doing anything to counter that. 

4. I have mixed feeling about Ukraine giving out fully automatic rifles to civilians. As a pro-gun person I think every government should do this at all times, so I am supportive in principle. But in practice I think this will backfire on Ukraine. If they are giving these guns to completely untrained civilians it will end in death. An untrained person going into combat is probably more of a threat to himself than he is to his enemies. And even if they aren't, what exactly is a civilian with a rifle going to do against a Russian armored column? If they actually spent time to train these folks they could actually be useful but just giving them a rifle and throwing them into battle? It's not a good idea. 

The other problem I can see with this is that it will make the Russians more likely to kill and injure civilians. If enough civilians take up arms then the Russians will start to shoot civilians on sight. Right now they seem to be trying to keep civilian casualties low, but that will stop if every old man has an AKM. 

5. This is not a black and white conflict, no matter what the media says. Russia isn't Satan and Ukraine isn't Jesus Christ. That isn't to say that Russia are the good guys, they are not. They started a war of choice and gave up on diplomacy, so at the very least they deserve much of the blame. Plus, I am guessing that at least some of the accusations of atrocities are true. Plus, their crackdown on peaceful anti-war protesters is shameful. Russia does not deserve to be supported in this campaign. 

With that being said, I do think that Russia's actions make sense. Ukraine joining NATO and the US deploying nuclear weapons there would essentially signal a first strike against Russia and a conventional war is more logical than waiting for that to happen. Putin may be a bad person for launching this war, as diplomacy could have worked, but he's also a rational actor responding to incentives. 

As for Ukraine, I have little sympathy for the government, and especially Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy was elected on a wave of discontent with the fact that the war was continuing. He was supposed to end the war but instead he escalated it to the point that the Russians invaded. Making him out to be a hero isn't the right thing to do. Plus, the obvious fact of the matter is that the Ukrainian government is ridiculously corrupt. 

I also have to say that though the Ukrainian regular troops are acting reasonably, the pro-Ukraine militias are not. They are accused of atrocities and many of them are actual Nazis. That's not Russian propaganda, it's a well documented fact, look at the page for the Azov Battalion. Though it's fairly silly to call the Ukrainian government Nazis like Russia has done (since Zelenskyy is a Jew himself), it is clear that the accusation at least has truth to it. 

In short, I don't think there are any good guys in this conflict, expect on the level of individuals. There are good Russian and Ukrainian fighters on both sides but I don't think anyone in the leadership of either country is a good person. And the western governments that helped start this war? Well, they are the worst of all, especially if the rumors that Joe Biden essentially started the war by relaunching the Ukraine joining NATO drive are true. 

6. I don't think this situation spirals out to a larger war. I'm almost afraid to say that since I got the prediction about the war happening wrong, but I just don't see it. Ukraine isn't worth going to war over and Biden isn't acting like anything is going to happen. From what I understand he went back to Delaware this weekend and I would hope like hell that he wouldn't be doing that if he thought a wider war was likely. 

7. The economy is going to suffer from this war. Much of the short term damage is due to people panicking but I think more damage will be done long term due to economic sanctions and Russia's response to it. Given that the American economy is in a freefall already it's not a good thing. 

8. The real victims of the war are the civilians and soldiers on both sides, with exceptions for the various militia groups. Very few civilians wanted this war and they are the ones going to be suffering for it. And though the Russians aren't going to suffer as much as the Ukrainians, but sanctions will hurt them as well. And keep in mind that the majority of soldiers on both sides are conscripts that didn't choose to join the military, let alone start a war. 

9. The longer the war goes on the worse this will be. That's why I want a quick victory for Russia or a diplomatic solution over anything else. The people that want a Ukrainian victory seem to be ignorant of the way that would happen, through a grinding attrition campaign that will kill tens of thousands of people. Ending the war as soon as possible is the best thing that could happen. 

10. The US response to the war has been a joke. Biden appears to be out to lunch, spending the weekend in Delaware... again. Our media is just running propaganda 24/7 this point with no objective reporting whatsoever. And our politicians are just sniping at each other. 

What really gets me is that there is no discussion at all if dealing with Ukraine is even worth it. I personally think we should just stay out of it. Risking a war with Russia just as a middle finger to Putin is not something I support. There is an argument to be made but nobody is actually making the argument, there is just an assumption that we should support Ukraine. They are acting like the argument has been won when it actually has never been made. What do we gain from supporting Ukraine? What do we risk by angering Russia? What damage would sanctions do to our economy? Can you answer these questions? And can our leaders? I don't think so... 

CDC eases mask recommendations for most of the United States.

 

Children forced to wear masks at an elementary school. ABC News/Getty.

The CDC has revised recommendations for most of the United States for wearing facemasks. ABC News. The new mandate says that in counties under low or medium "threat", based on transmission and available hospital beds, masks are no longer needed. Counties with high levels of transmission will still be recommended to force mask wearing. The CDC also dropped the controversial school mask mandate, citing the lower risk to kids from the disease. They also recommend that people with active coronavirus infections to continue to wear masks and for people at high risk to continue wearing masks. 

My Comment:

This is fairly important news that is getting buried by the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Indeed, I think it was probably released during the war as to lesson the impact here as it pretty clearly indicates that the CDC is admitting they got masking wrong. Especially when it comes to masking children in schools. 

How much of an impact this will have is unclear. I know for many people the issue is moot because their states or counties lifted their mask mandates either recently or awhile ago. In my case outside of work I haven't had to wear a mask outside of a doctors office since last spring. For many people this ruling is irrelevant. 

But it may affect many people. I know my company has stuck with masks for reasons that I don't want to get into here, but they cited government regulations as one of those reasons. With the mandate being lifted for areas at lower risk (which I checked and confirmed we are at low risk) will the masks be going away? It's a question I look forward to being answered when I return to work on Monday. 

The bigger news here is that the CDC no longer recommends masking for children in schools. This was long overdue as children were never at great risk from any of the strains of the Coronavirus. Even the base Wuhan version never really attacked children the way it did older people, unlike Influenza that targets both.

And let's not understate the damage masking did to children. Not only did kids hate masks it probably damaged the development and language skills of younger children who had to mask up for two years now. Children learn from watching and they were prevented from doing that by these masks. Many of these children will not be able to catch up. The time to drop these mandates has long passed but I am glad that they are finally gone. 

I know that the CDC has said that if transmission picks up again, they will recommend masks but at this point I doubt it will matter. People are sick of these restrictions and I doubt compliance will continue. I know at work the only time anyone actually wears masks is when management is around. People don't see a reason to wear them. 

Finally, I never thought masks were all that effective in the first place. They were never designed to protect people from infection, they were supposed to prevent sick people from spreading the virus if they coughed or sneezed. And people never wore them correctly in the first place. They might have had some small effect but in most cases it was simply medical theater. 

Russia sends forces into Ukraine, sparking major military conflict.

 

Vladimir Putin announces the start of the conflict. BBC/Reuters. 

Russia has sent major forces into Ukraine proper, sparking a major military conflict. BBC. Vladimir Putin announced the strikes saying he was not going to occupy Ukraine and demanded Ukrainian forces to lay down their arms. Ukraine responded by cutting of ties to Russia, issuing martial law and distributing weapons to civilians. Putin claimed the war was justified due to anti-Russian actions the Ukrainian government undertook, likening the country's anti-Russian language law to genocide. The war in Ukraine is nothing new, and neither is Russian involvement but the open invasion of Russian forces indicates a new phase in the war. 

My Comment:

I have to admit that I got this story wrong. I figured that Putin was not going to invade Ukraine proper, even after he entered the Donbass region. The fact that it is still winter in Ukraine made me think that he would be reluctant to launch any attacks in this weather, but I guess that wasn't a great concern. I also didn't think Putin had too much to gain from attacking Ukraine but given the rather tepid response from the international community, I don't think he had anything to lose now either. 

As for the war itself, it's too early to tell who is winning, though it does not look good for the Ukrainian military. The fog of war is in full effect so it's extremely difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff, so I won't post any rumors I have seen here. I will say that my gut tells me that Russia is utterly curbstomping Ukraine in this phase of the war. 

They have a much bigger and better military than Ukraine does. Ukraine's Navy is a joke and may have already been completely destroyed and their air units aren't much better. Plus, keep in mind that Ukraine's military was absolutely bleed white during the early phase of the civil war. I don't think the few shipments of western weapons they have gotten will do much other than possibly prolonging the conflict. 

My guess is that Russia will likely win the conventional phase of this conflict. They have the weapons, experience and troops to destroy major Ukrainian military units. The real question is what happens after that? Russia says they don't want to say in Ukraine but that might not hold through during this conflict. If they do stay outside of the Donbass region, and other Ukrainian areas that are Russian speaker dominated they could face a rather brutal and well funded guerilla campaign. My hope is that Russia will pull out whenever they feel they have done enough damage to Ukraine's regime. 

As for fears of a wider war, I am not convinced. I do think that Belarus will join the war, since it's de facto involved in the first place, but other than that I don't see much happening. I do have some mild fears that Joe Biden could Alzehimer's us into World War III but that seems very unlikely even for him. I don't think anyone in America wants yet another war that we probably won't win for another country that couldn't solve it's own problems. The war will be a headache enough for Biden without the direct involvement with US troops. 

The international response to this has been, as expected, pretty lame. Nobody is threatening war against Russia, and for good reason. The fact is that nobody wants to risk a nuclear war with Russia over a country that is useless, strategically and economically. Even the supposed removal from the SWIFT banking system doesn't look like it will happen. I am sure there will be some meaningless sanctions, that will likely hurt US and European civilians far more than it will hurt Russia, but I am not expecting much else. 

As for the morality of this war, I do consider it a war of aggression. Russia had options here and could have humiliated the United States and Europe merely by sending troops to Donbass and then stopping at the border. They didn't choose that path and I don't agree with the decision. I do think that Putin had rational reasons to launch this war, but I don't agree with the fact that a lot of people will die needlessly because of his ambition. 

But I also don't agree with this being a black and white conflict morally. None of the players here, the least of all the United States, are morally clean. America has no ground to stand on when it comes to invading countries, considering we invaded Iraq and Libya on much shakier grounds.  I do think that Russia's charges of genocide against Ukraine were more real than any western outlet would ever admit, after all the anti-Russian laws are public record. And let's not forget that the west fostered the revolution that started this whole mess in the first place. I do think that Russia deserves much of the blame but I am rather disgusted that the media is trying to say nobody else does either. 

I think the real problem though was a total lack of leadership from both US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Biden, of course, is an extremely weak president. His approval ratings have dropped to pathetic levels and he sent a clear message to the world with his botched withdrawal from Afghanistan that America was now a paper tiger. 

Biden's biggest failure was diplomatically. Unlike President Trump who had a working relationship with Vladimir Putin (even when he was bombing Russian troops in Syria), Biden has had nothing but contempt for Putin. He never even offered the most basic concessions to Putin and he tried to impose his will on Russia. Since Russia considers itself at least an equal to the United States, it did not work out for him. Knowing Biden was weak, Putin decided he would do whatever he whatever he wanted in Ukraine. 

As for Zelenskyy, his major failure was diplomacy as well. He was elected on a tide of discontent that the war in Donbass had not ended. He had a mandate to solve the crisis but utterly failed to do so. There was an easy solution, repeal anti-Russian laws and offer the two breakaway republics a federal solution, but he was unwilling or unable to 

I probably won't have a follow up to this post tonight unless something unbelievable happens, but do expect more coverage for this conflict as time goes on. With that being said, I started this blog to cover news that isn't getting enough attention, and this seems like the mother of all distractions! Watch for news to get buried today and if I find any myself I will try and get a post up. 

Justin Trudeau drops emergency declaration over freedom convoy...

Justin Trudeau. New York Post/AP.

Justin Trudeau has dropped emergency powers he had declared over the Freedom Convoy protests. New York Post. The move comes long after the remaining protesters had been removed. The House of Commons had authorized the move but the Senate had not yet voted. The protests were wide ranging and not only paralyzed Ottawa but also blocked several border stations. But the protest was broken up on Friday. 

My Comment:

The big question is why Trudeau would do this now? Indeed, just a couple of days ago Trudeau was demanding that these powers were absolutely necessary, no question about it. But he did a total 180 in just a couple of days? What changed?  

The most obvious possibility is that he figured out that the Senate was going to pull his authority anyways. I don't have a count on who was going to vote who and now we never will know. But my guess is that Trudeau was going to lose and thus be embarrassed. So he pulled the powers in anticipation of this. 

Another problem was that the banks appear to have been furious with Trudeau. His freezing of bank accounts for people that supported the Freedom Convoy had the predictable effect of a bank run. People did not trust banking accounts anymore even if they hadn't donated. After all, if they can freeze your account for supporting a peaceful convoy they can suspend it for anything. Give to the wrong political candidate? Frozen. Say something critical of the government? Frozen. Know someone in the government who hates you? Frozen. Nobody can trust banking under those conditions. 

This has obviously pissed off the banks and that seems like a huge mistake for Trudeau. Pissing off the major players in the economy, well, let's just say that I wouldn't be surprised if Justin Trudeau pulls a Jeffrey Epstein. It does go to show that you can treat your people like absolute crap and get away with it but if you mess with money you are done. 

What I don't buy is the idea that the Freedom Convoy is no longer a threat. That was always true, the convoy wasn't a threat to anyone other than Canada's Coronavirus policies. Nobody got hurt in the protest other than the protesters. I don't think they are done yet, they are just licking their wounds and regrouping. They have a right to be absolutely furious with Trudeau and his government after his despicable actions. 

What happens now? I am not sure. The convoy appears to be over and there isn't an election in Canada for a while now. I don't know what actions the people who are upset with Trudeau can take. Indeed, I think Canada will be a sideshow now that there is an American version of the Freedom Convoy. 

 

Washington DC braces for an American version of the Freedom Convoy

 

The Canadian truck convoy. Fox News.

Washington DC is beginning to prepare for an American version of the Freedom Convoy. Fox News. Thousands of trucks are expected to descend on the capital, with a convoy from Scranton Pennsylvania expected as soon as Wednesday. The National Guard has already been requested to assist with traffic control. The truck convoy was inspired by the protests in Canada. 

My Comment:

I've got mixed feelings about this. I absolutely believe that these people have the right to protest and that the Biden administration deserves to be protested. The fact that there are still any federal restrictions due to the Coronavirus is absolutely insane. The pandemic is basically over and the current strains of the Coronavirus are at the same level of threat as a bad flu year. 

Biden in general deserves to be protested. He's been a terrible president and just about every policy decision he has made has been damaging. The fact that there hasn't been major protests against him since January 6th, even though his approval rating is in the toilet. 

I do have some concern about the protest again. The first problem is that I don't expect it to do much. The Canadian version failed after a violent crackdown. The main problem that I saw is that the Canadians gave up on the border protests. The protests in Ottawa were nothing more than an annoyance to the powers that be, but the border protests? That put a lot of pressure on the Canadian government and when they gave it up they ended up losing everything. 

The other problem is that Washington DC is well prepared for the convoy. The Ottawa protest was partially successful because the Canadian government discounted it and did not have any plan for when people showed up. That's not the case now in DC, everyone knows this is coming and the government there is already deploying the National Guard and fencing. 

One thing I don't know is how passionate the protesters will be. I know in my case the remaining Coronavirus restrictions are almost completely irrelevant to me as they don't affect me at all. The only place I go where facemasks are required is at work, and that mandate is hardly enforced. There is no vaccine mandate and my state, Wisconsin, had largely returned to normal last summer. Indeed, outside of work the only time I had to wear a mask is when I went to the doctor's office when I was sick with hand foot and mouth. And to be honest, since I was infected with a contagious disease, I didn't mind wearing a mask there. With that being said, I do think that any and all remaining Coronavirus should be lifted due to them being utterly pointless. 

I know that my state isn't the same as every other state, but even states with restrictions are largely removing them. People are still angry but not as much as the Canadians were. Anger is needed to keep a protest movement going and I don't see the issue of Coronavirus restrictions are enough right now. There is a lot of general anger over the Biden administration, but having a wide unfocused movement is ripe for distraction. 

With that being said, I do appreciate the effort. If there is anything the Biden administration needs to hear right now, along with other Western leaders, it's this. We aren't afraid of them and we don't consider them to be legitimate. This protest will, if nothing else, accomplish that, assuming it comes together.  

Russia recognizes breakaway republics in Ukraine, will send troops.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Hill.

Russia has recognized the breakaway Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk and will deploy troops to the region. The Hill. Vladimir Putin recognized the republics today. In response Joe Biden has put sanctions onto the Republics. There are still fears that Russia could invade Ukraine proper and not just the breakaway areas, but Putin has given no indication that he is going to do so. 

My Comment:

The media and blue checkmarks on Twitter are salivating at the threat of war here, but this is a lot more minor than they are portraying it. Donetsk and Luhansk have been de facto independent since 2015 and having Russian troops there is not anything new. 

You can tell this is not a big deal given how weak the response to the incident has been. All Biden has done is issue an executive order sanctioning the two Republics, an utterly toothless response. As expected the crippling sanctions for an invasion have not come into play and I sincerely think that they will not in the future. 

Because this is not really an invasion. It's almost the status quo, with the main difference being that Russia is finally recognizing what it is doing in those two Republics. Indeed, I don't expect too much violence at all, other than the normal violence that has plagued the border for years now. 

The media are still hyping up the possibility of a war, but I think it is pretty unlikely. Like I have been saying a war during winter is unlikely in the first place, but now that Putin has everything he wants it seems even more unlikely. Putin has little reason to invade now. 

What could happen is that the Ukrainians could attack. That also seems unlikely given the forces arrayed against them. Russia could crush the Ukrainian military, which has already been bled dry over years of war, without too much trouble. They may want to launch a strike to save face but even that seems like a stupid move. They would get no military help whatsoever. 

My guess remains that cooler heads will prevail. Russia launched wars in the region before. No wider war happened after Georgia in 2008 or when Crimea got taken back. What I expect to happen is for diplomacy to start again and I even expect that the Putin/Biden meeting will probably happen. 

Why? Because there is absolutely nothing anyone can do about this move. Biden won't launch a war for Ukraine and I doubt that there will be any new sanctions. Indeed, this situation is still mostly manufactured. I doubt that anyone will be talking about this in a year, outside of historians. 

But I do have to point out that I didn't expect this. I figured that Putin didn't need to take back these two Republics. There wasn't much to gain from this other than ensuring that the two Republics will stay in Russia's sphere of influence for the foreseeable future. In retrospect, that is kind of a big win for Putin and it looks like he got it without much in the way of costs. 

Was Russia right to do this? I have almost no sympathy for Ukraine as they never even tried to follow the Minsk accords or treat their Russian speaking citizens as equals. But that doesn't mean that Putin is right either. I do think that NATO and the United States deserves a lot of the blame for this incident, but it takes two to tango and Putin could have tried diplomacy indefinitely and not pay any price for it. 

I think that Putin may have made a major mistake largely because Joe Biden is so unpredictable. I don't think much will happen but you never know when someone as senile and foolish as Biden is your opponent. Putin is a rational actor but I don't know if he knows that Biden most certainly is not. It seems like Biden is acting like he was supposed to, a spineless coward that won't even launch the sanctions he promised, let alone launch a war. But that's a major risk. 

Five sailors charged in F-35 crash video leak.

A screencap from the leaked video. Military.com

Five sailors have been charged for leaking video of an F-35 crashing on the USS Carl Vinson. Military.com. An ensign and four chief petty officers have been charged under Article 92, failure to follow a lawful order. The video was the third to go viral in relation to the crash. The video shows the plane coming in hot and then exploding in a major fireball. 

My Comment:

This is just a quick follow up to a post I made earlier in the month. As expected the people responsible for leaking this video have been charged with crimes. It was pretty obvious that was going to happen as given how the video was taken there were only a few people that could have been responsible. 

I honestly don't know what the sailors were thinking. Leaking video like this is never a good idea for your military career, but in this case especially. This incident was extremely embarrassing for the US Navy and not one that they wanted to deal with during times of high tensions between the United States and Russia/China. 

I fully expect that these sailors will no longer have a career and will probably end up in prison. I am no expert on military law, but I can't imagine that these sailors get away with this with a slap on the wrist. My guess is that they will serve time in prison and then be dishonorably discharged. 

I do wonder if anyone will be charged to releasing the other video and the photograph that showed the F-35 in the water. It's possible that they were not the same people that were charged in this incident. That means there could be further charged related this this air crash. 

 

 

Emmanuel Macron arranges a meeting between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin over Ukraine.

 

Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin meeting last year in Geneva. CNBC/Getty.

French President Emmanuel Macron was able to arrange a meeting between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin over Ukraine. CNBC. The meeting will come after Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minster Sergey Lavrov meet later this week. The meeting will be seen as an effort to avoid a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Stocks went higher on the news. America has reserved the right to cancel the meeting if Russia invades. 

My Comment:

The media turn around on this issue was insane. Just before this story broke, media figures were saying that Russia was mere minutes away from invading Ukraine. All the blue check marks on Twitter were saying that the orders were already given and that Ukraine was going to be invaded, seriously, no joke. 

And now peace appears to have broken out. Again. It's very clear that we should not be listening to the media as they are being fed BS from the intelligence agencies. The difference between what is happening and what the media is reporting has never been bigger. 

Was war even close? I don't think so. Putin had already pulled some troops back and I didn't see any indication that war was coming. Sure, there was some shelling in Ukraine between the government and the rebels, but when has that not been the case since the war started there? 

I think this is a pretty big win for Emmanuel Macron. He's doing good work trying to get America and Russia to talk. I am guessing that Joe Biden was the real problem here compared to Putin. Putin appears to want to talk and much of this is happening because nobody is listening to him. And Joe Biden is a stubborn foolish old man who desperately wants a win. 

Indeed, I think the whole Ukraine crisis was a manufactured crisis. Joe Biden is facing a huge number of problems, including a disastrous pull out from Afghanistan, wildcat inflation, domestic opposition to his Coronavirus policies and perhaps even an American version of the Freedom Convoy. In short, he needs a win and was willing to risk a war with Russia to get it. 

I have always said though that cooler heads will prevail. Actual war isn't in anyone's best interests and I always thought the idea that Russia would invade in the middle of winter made zero sense. My guess is that these talks will be successful, Putin will get some of what he wants and Joe Biden (and many European leaders) will pretend that they won the crisis, not caused it. 

Video shows Ottawa police trampling civilians with horses.

 

An aerial view of demonstrators being trampled. Social media via Chiefnerd

Video seen on social media shows mounted police units in Ottawa trampling civilians. Newsweek. The incident occurred in Ottawa where Prime Minster Justin Trudeau has taken extreme steps to try and break up the freedom convoy, which is protesting Coronavirus mandates. Police were attempting to push protesters out when the mounted police charged between the police line and the protester line. At least two people appear to have been trampled, including and older woman with a mobility scooter. Police claim a bicycle was thrown and the police horses but no bicycle was visible on the videos or images trending on social media. Over 100 protesters have been arrested but as of this writing the protest continues. 

Ottawa Police Horses Trample Protestors Increasing Tensions Between Protestors and Police

Credit: https://t.co/54dcfpPRvY pic.twitter.com/yAbVsAQcsn

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) February 18, 2022

 

TRUDEAU INCITES VIOLENCE ON PEACEFUL PROTESTERS IN OTTAWA: ELDERLY WOMAN TRAMPLED BY POLICE HORSES pic.twitter.com/4hgNIr03ln

— Jesse (@Jesse18957642) February 19, 2022

My Comments:

There are unconfirmed reports of a death connected to this incident but I have not been able to confirm them. I haven't heard anything official either way, but given the video I saw it is very possible. It could also be the kind of false reporting that happens after an incident like this. Don't make descions based on what we know now as it could go either way. And also considering that Canada is acting like a third world tinpot dictatorship, even if someone died I doubt we will hear about it. 

This is a huge escalation in violence from the Canadian government, only one step down from actually firing upon the protesters in Ottawa. Charging a crowd of peaceful protesters is not how these things are done. 

Indeed, I have watched a lot of riots and I can't remember mounted police being used in this way. Sure, sometimes people did get trampled in the 2020 George Floyd riots but those were always active rioters, not peaceful protesters. This wasn't a bunch of young Antifa rioters or Black Lives Matter looters, these were peaceful protesters, much like some of the 2020 protesters that remained peaceful. I saw no violence in the crowd whatsoever and they were mostly trying to convince the riot police to leave. 

It makes little sense because charging into a crowd of people is about the last thing you want to do with a horse. Horses are for speed and maneuverability, and for intimidation purposes. You don't charge into a crowd because the horse naturally wants to stop and if it does you are extremely vulnerable to being taken off of the horse. It's bad tactics and it's multiplied by the fact that it's not only extremely dangerous to the police officer, it's dangerous to anyone else who happens to be nearby. 

I don't buy for a second the Ottawa police department claim that someone threw a bike at the horses, spooking them. Indeed, the only vehicle I saw was the older lady's mobility scooter. It is possible the horses got spooked, either from her scooter or just from the size of the crowd, but like I said before, this isn't standard mounted unit procedure as far as I am aware. 

Regardless, it seemed massively reckless and it will be a miracle if neither of the two people that got hit died. I think that the older woman probably survived but the man in the brown coat looked like he got trample pretty good. If he did make it than it's pure luck on his part. 

I think that this situation will rapidly spiral out of control. The anger I am seeing over this is unreal, though some of that is due to the speculation over a death. The optics of this situation couldn't be worse for the Trudeau regime. An old lady was in one minute calling for peace and the next minute she was knocked over by a charging horse. People are going to be upset about that and for good reason. That's not what we expect from a western "civilized" government. 

I also have to say that cracking down on peaceful protesters is how a lot of civil wars have started recently. Syria started that way and I believe Libya did as well. And let's not forget the original example, the American Revolution. Hurting or killing people using peaceful means to protest shows that the government is no longer legitimate. It's one thing to break up a riot with heavy force, and even using non-lethal force to break up protests can be justified. But using lethal force against people who are just standing around? That's a line that I can't believe Canada just crossed. 

It really shows how unhinged Justin Trudeau and his government has gotten. They are using potentially lethal force against peaceful protesters. And keep in mind that this is after the protesters proved that they would respond to good faith negotiations. The blockades at the Coutts border crossing and other US/Canada border stations were broken up after local and provincial officials negotiated a settlement. Those folks went home peacefully because the government treated them with respect and gave them some of what they wanted.  

But Trudeau has, rather insanely, said he will not negotiate period. He won't even meet with the protest organizers. Instead he is arresting leadership, hacking donation sites, freezing bank accounts of donators and now ordering the police to act like goons and even possibly killing people. He is acting like a dictator and I actually wonder if he has lost his mind. 

The most insane thing is that the Canadians are simply asking that Canada follow the lead of other countries that are pulling back on their Coronavirus mandates. For me, I haven't lived with any sort of mandate since last summer, outside of my job of course. Much of Europe and the United States are now dropping whatever mandates they have, even if far left places like Nevada and New Jersey. Even much of Canada has removed mandates at the provincial level. But Trudeau? He keeps doubling down and it makes zero sense. 

I honestly think that this is some kind of tipping point but to where? I don't think that Canada's future is an image of a man on the ground with Justin Trudeau's boot on his neck forever. But I also don't know if Trudeau is going to accept either a return to status quo or being removed. He's taken control of the government and I don't know if anyone can legally stop him at this point. 

I do know one thing. Violence begets violence. It's why Ruby Ridge and Waco lead to the Oklahoma City Bombing. It's why dozens of ISIS attacks eventually lead to the Christchurch shooting. It's why one gang member kills another. And Canada is very close to going down this path. This is a huge problem, not only for them, but for the United States as well. I hope that cooler heads prevail but at this point I think almost any outcome, including a protracted civil war and associated refugee crisis, is on the table. 

Would a Russia/Ukraine conflict cause even more inflation?

 

Russian tanks on a train. New York Post/Reuters. 

A new analysis says that inflation could increase to as high as 10% if Russia invades Ukraine. New York Post. Such a conflict could cause oil prices to spike over $100 a barrel which would have a ripple effect throughout the economy. Russia is the 2nd largest producer of oil and natural gas and Joe Biden has vowed that he would sanction the country if it invades. Russia would likely retaliate by cutting off its gas and oil supplies to the rest of the world. The inflation would be on top of runaway inflation, the highest level in 40 years, that Americans are already dealing with. Experts disagree with how likely an invasion is, with Russia offering some signals that they are not willing to invade. 

My Comment:

First of all, I have to say that I still don't think there is any evidence that Russia is actually going to invade. This whole crisis is a manufactured one and an example of saber rattling. Russia has very little to gain from an invasion and a lot to lose. Plus it's winter, the time of year where tanks get bogged down in the mud and soldiers freeze in the snow. 

But I do think if a war were to happen, it would obviously cause a huge amount of economic damage, not the least of which would be inflation. The stock markets would take a hit obviously because investors would be scared of a wider war breaking out. I mean, look what happened this week, markets rallied when Putin pulled back troops but crashed today because of some minor shelling. 

Inflation would be the biggest problem because it's already a huge problem. Inflation is at it's worst rate in 40 years and everyone is feeling the effects of it. Indeed, I went to the store today, bought hardly anything and still paid more than $100 for it. There is no indication that the inflation will go down on its own anytime soon. 

If a war were to happen it wouldn't cause inflation alone. Ukraine is not an economic powerhouse and it is only useful because it is a highway that brings Russian goods to Europe. Any Russian war would probably be limited and would not threaten trade on its own. 

But it would be Biden's actions that would cause the inflation. He has vowed that he would bring sanctions against Russia, which Russia would retaliate against. They would do so by cutting off oil and gas supplies to Europe. This economic warfare would be the cause of inflation, not the war itself. 

What worries me about this is that Biden knows a war in Ukraine would cause inflation and he might want to use that as an excuse for his domestic failures in controlling it. That means he has zero incentive to actually stop the war and major incentive to actually start it. He would use Putin as a convenient scapegoat for his own failures. 

That being said, I doubt that Biden would escape the blame if he causes a war to cover up inflation. Everyone knows that the war would be his fault, he's the one that provoked Russia by trying to get Ukraine to join NATO. Plus, making the economy even worse won't help his poll numbers one bit. 

Three San Francisco progressive school board members are recalled.

 

Recall celebrate their victory. CBS/San Francisco Chronicle.

Three San Francisco progressive school board members have been recalled in a recall election. CBS News. The three school board members, Gabriela Lopez, Faauuga Moliga and Alison Collins were the only three eligible for recall. The entire school board has angered even the famously liberal city of San Francisco with how far left they have gone. The school board has been focused on changing historical names, targeting sites that honored people like George Washington, Abraham Lincoln and even San Francisco native Senator Dianne Feinstein. The Asian community was also greatly angered by what they perceived to be anti-Asian statements from board member Alison Collins, who accused Asians of being White Supremacists. They were also angered by the proposed change in the elite Lowell school, which would eliminate competitive admissions. 

My Comment:

It's a really bad sign when you are too liberal for San Francisco of all places. These three board members were not focusing on making children educated. They were completely focused on virtue signaling. 

Some of the anger is because the city took forever to open up during the pandemic. Unlike most cities they did not open until last August. This made zero sense given how low the threat is to children and how badly kids did with distance learning. 

But most of the anger is due to how progressive they were being. For normal people, even normal leftists, changing the names of locations is not a priority. Indeed, most people like people like Washington and Lincoln and want them to be honored. Changing their names doesn't help anything and just angers anyone who likes those historic figures. 

And focusing on that now? It's insane. San Francisco is a city in crisis. Crime is out of control, there is a huge homeless program, housing is extremely expensive and there is some outright racism occurring. Much of this is outside of the scope of the School Board but regardless, imagine you just got attacked because you are Asian and the school board is more focused on changing place names. You would be angry too. 

Speaking of Asians, pissing them off was a bad move. Indeed, calling Asian-Americans White Supremacists seems like a huge own goal. Asians have a lot of power in San Francisco and antagonizing them is not smart. Doing it in an offensive and stupid way with the anti-Asian comments that Collins made was absolutely idiotic. 

Education seems like a major election issue in 2022. Indeed, widespread anger over school boards being far too progressive allowed Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin to win in a blue state. This recall in San Francisco shows that it's not just conservatives that are angry about way education is being handled in the United States. I am guessing that it will help the Republicans win the house and senate in 2022

Russia says it is pulling troops back from the border with Ukraine.

 

Russian tanks participating in an exercise. ABC News/AP. 

Russia says it is pulling troops back from the border with Ukraine after ending military exercises. ABC News. Video has been released showing tanks being loaded back into trains and Russian soldiers pulling out of Crimea. Exercises are continuing in Belarus and in the Black Sea. Western intelligence agencies are skeptical of the reports. Russia did vote to recognize The People's Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk, the breakaway region of Ukraine, but Putin signaled that he would not move on that vote because he wanted to work within the framework of the 2015 Minsk peace agreement. Intelligence agencies had warned that an invasion of Ukraine was imminent.

My Comment:

As expected the so called Ukraine crisis has fizzled. I don't believe for a second that Putin was prepared to invade Ukraine, it was just a manufactured crisis to prop up NATO leadership, all facing their own crisis's. 

The idea that Russia would invade Ukraine at this time never made any sense. More than one army has been destroyed because they invaded the region during winter. Tanks would be stuck in the mud, soldiers would freeze to death and logistics would be difficult to impossible. And not to mention that the Olympics are on right now (though you would be forgiven if you didn't notice given how apathetic everyone is to it). 

I also didn't think that Russia had anywhere near the troops necessary deployed to the border to effectively invade. The numbers I saw was around 100,000 to 150,000 troops deployed and I think they would need at least twice that. 

Could an invasion still happen? It's unlikely now. The troops that are being pulled out are the ones that border Ukraine, and the ones that would be poised to take over the breakaway republics are the ones getting pulled out. To see an invasion now we would need to see those troops redeployed back as well as more units and logistics outfits put back to the border. 

I do think that Russia has a reason to be upset. Bringing Ukraine into NATO would be the equivalent of the old Soviet Union bringing Mexico or Canada into the Warsaw Pact. Indeed, the Cuban Missile crisis was caused by similar behavior by the Soviet Union. 

But if there is a similar historical event that the current crisis resembles it is Able Archer 83. That exercise was just that, and exercise. But the Soviet leadership was so out of touch and senile they thought it was a preamble to an outright nuclear war. Does that remind you of anything? If there ever was an American equivalent to Leonid Brezhnev and Yuri Andropov it's Joe Biden. 

The question is how did the intelligence agencies get it so wrong? It seemed clear as day to me that the Russians aren't going to invade Ukraine. It never made any sense to me, but why did the CIA and others seem to be certain of it? 

I think there are two options. The first is the most obvious. The intelligence agencies are completely incompetent. That is backed up by the debacle that was Afghanistan. They got that almost completely wrong and didn't see the fall of Kabul falling. They also failed to stop a major terror attack at the airport and then destroyed a totally innocent family they mistook for ISIS fighters. I could see the same thing happening again in Ukraine.

The other option is that the whole scenario was cooked up as a distraction for domestic issues. Most NATO members desperately need a win. France has Macron facing major protests against him, Germany has new leadership, the UK has Boris Johnson with various scandals and, worst of all, everything in the Biden administration. All of these folks desperately need a win and a supposed victory against Putin is useful for them. 

I am pretty sure that the crisis in Ukraine is back to being a nothingburger. There might be some diplomatic moves but I am expecting status quo ante, with Ukraine probably tabling plans to join NATO. I don't think a breakthrough with Russia and Ukraine will happen but it's possible. My guess is that nothing serious will change. 

Justin Trudeau invokes the Emergencies Act against the Freedom Convoy in Canada...

 

Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau. AP. 

Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau has invoked the Emergencies Act against the Freedom Convoy in Canada. AP. Trudeau has threatened the protesters by saying he would go after their private and corporates bank accounts, seizing truckers rigs, and even suspending insurance for truckers. Trudeau has largely been powerless to stop the protests but was able to clear the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor. Trudeau's actions are controversial in Canada, with some premiers of the provinces saying they don't support the move. The protests are against Canada's various Coronavirus mandates.  

My Comment:

These are not the moves of a man who is confident of his political survival. Trudeau seems to have no other option other than the nuclear one and it is almost assured to backfire on him. Indeed, this seems like a huge error on his part and one that will probably destroy him, one way or the other. 

Why? Because this won't stop the protests. Theses protests are well funded and Canada doesn't have the manpower to take out every single one of these protesters. They may be able to stop some of the smaller border protests but they if they concentrate forces to stomp out one they leave weaknesses that other protesters can pop up. Trudeau has made his ruling but I don't see how he enforces it. 

Going after people's bank accounts seems like the biggest own-goal that Trudeau could do. These people already feel like they have nothing to lose and this is just confirming it. They know now that they will get no mercy if they back down, so why not just see this through to the end? Trudeau needs to study his Sun Tzu as it is always important to leave your enemy an out. 

I think it's obvious that Trudeau is abusing his power. The Freedom Convoy has remained completely peaceful with pretty much no violence whatsoever. Compared the the George Floyd riots in 2020, the Convoy is on another level. If the protesters were burning down buildings and assaulting people in the streets, it might be justifiable but that hasn't even come close to happening. They are mostly just having parties in the street. 

As for the protesters they have a major decision to make. Do they stay the course with border blockades and the protest in Ottawa? Or do they try and make a change in tactics that is less vulnerable to disruption from the government? Both ways have arguments for and against and even a combination of the two is possible. 

Doubling down might be the way to go. It's very clear that the border protests have put enormous pressure on the Canadian government. The action at the Ambassador Bridge alone had a massive economic impact on both Canada and the United States. Trying to bring that back would be easy enough, but would be very risky for the people involved. 

The other option is to change gears and largely stop the protests and instead try and get a general strike going. A work stoppage of even 5% of Canada's workers could cripple the economy and I think they could get more than that. The best part of that is that the government would be totally powerless to do anything about that. They can't make people work and given the fact that the majority of protesters are critical workers the effects would be multiplied. 

But doing both would probably be the best. Keeping up the blockades and then having a general strike on top of it? That would bring Trudeau to his knees. People are already turning against him and they would blame him for any disruptions caused by further protests as he hasn't even taken the basic step to talk to these people on equal footing. 

Are the truckers winning? I think that they are, assuming that they don't give up. Like I have been saying, Canada does not have the manpower to try and put this movement down, and if they try it they will lose any claim at morality and legitimacy. The protesters have absolutely nothing to lose here and should be able to win. And I think they are a major reason why these restrictions are starting to get pulled back across the world. 

But what worries me is that it seems pretty clear that Trudeau and the people around him are going unhinged. They are desperate to hang onto power and I wouldn't rule out them using violence. I don't think that would work and indeed, that's how civil wars start, but they don't seem to care anymore. The truckers don't have anything to lose but it might be the case that Trudeau doesn't either. At the very least he faces losing his position as Prime Minister, but he could end up in a small cell for the rest of his life or worse. 

What really gets me is that none of this is necessary. All across the globe, and within Canada itself, governments are pulling back on Coronavirus restrictions. The Omicron variant has proven to be a lot weaker than any other variant and it's also clear that the current wave has already peaked. And the vaccine and mask mandates? They haven't done a thing to stop or even slow Omicron. 

All Trudeau has to do is pull back the mandates. They don't work and offer nothing to gain for him and his constituents. The science is pretty clear, there is no gain for any of these restrictions and people are absolutely tired of him. But he still wants them. Which makes me wonder why? It makes me wonder if some of the conspiracy theories might be true... 

The United States has deployed F-22 fighters to the UAE after drone and missile attacks from Houthi rebels.

 

A US F-22 fighter in Lithuania. Reuters. 

The United States has deployed F-22 fighters to the UAE after drone and missile attacks from Houthi rebels in Yemen. Reuters. The Houthis have been launching ballistic missiles and drone attacks for some time now, though most of those attacks have failed. The F-22's are being used as a shore of force. The United States will also replenish UAE's stock of interceptor missiles. 

My Comment:

This deployment is mostly for show. The F-22's are mostly an anti-fighter jet. They have the ability to launch airstrikes, and have been used that way in the past, but aren't anywhere near as capable as the F-35's and older fighters like the F-15's and F-16's. Those are better bomb trucks than the F-22. 

I do think that this is a pretty good argument that nothing is going to happen in Ukraine, or at least nothing that will involve US forces. If there were real worries of World War III then these F-22's would not have been deployed to the UAE. Those fighters would be much better used at intercepting Russian fighters rather than doing nothing in the UAE. 

The F-22's can't do too much against the Houthi rebels and their attacks. They obviously can't intercept ballistic missiles. They might be useful against drones but it really depends on the size of those drones. Small drones would be too hard to engage but larger ones might be possible to intercept. I don't really know what kind of drones the Houthis are using but I know they are being provided by Iran. 

The war in Yemen doesn't seem to be calming down at all. Indeed, I seem to be writing about it a lot. The Houthis are doing a lot to bring the UAE back into the war. This is odd to me as the UAE had largely withdrawn from the conflict and left the fighting to the Saudis and their Yemeni allies. Bringing in the UAE doesn't help the Houthi's supposed cause. 

But the war in Yemen was never about the Houthis. It's a proxy conflict between Saudi Arabia and its allies and Iran. It's a war between Sunni and Shia Islam. That is why the UAE is being brought back into the war, Iran wants them to be weakened so they are not a threat to Iran. As long as that is true the war in Yemen will not end. 

Special Counsel John Durham says that the Hillary Clinton campaign paid a tech company to infiltrate Trump Tower and the White House.

 

Special Counsel John Durham. Fox News. 

A new court filing from Special Counsel John Durham says that the Hillary Clinton campaign paid a tech company to infiltrate Trump Tower and the White House to falsely accuse Donald Trump of colluding with Russia. Fox News. Former Clinton campaign lawyer Michael Sussman had passed information that alleged that Trump had connections with Alfa Bank, a Russian bank. But it turned out that Sussman was doing so on behalf of the Clinton campaign. The information came from non-public data that had come from a DOD research contract with a major university. Even more shocking, the tech company was able to continue spying on Trump when he was in the White House in an effort to produce information that was damaging to President Trump. Sussman used this data to build a false narrative that Donald Trump had colluded with Russia during the 2016 election. No evidence was ever found proving that Trump committed any wrong doing. 

The Conservative Treehouse created an image detailing who the people are in Durham's filing. 

My Comment:

The Fox News article was confusing and overly long but it was the best summary that I have seen out there from a reliable news source. The other major news networks and papers haven't touched this story for obvious reasons. It shows that they were complicit in a major crime against the President of the United States. 

From what I have seen it appears that the Clinton campaign was working with a defense contractor to spy on President Trump both before and after he was elected President. They were trying to find damaging info but what is amazing is that they found nothing. Instead they had to rely on the Steele Dossier, which was largely made up out of whole cloth. 

This is, of course, a huge deal. The Muller investigation took up much of President Trump's first two years and did damage his ability to govern. It may have also hurt the Republicans in 2018 and 2020 and also damaged our national security. And they did it through illegal means. 

If a normal defendant was abused in this way he could easily claim that all information gathered here was fruit of the poisonous tree and the charges would be laughed out of court. But because it was President Trump apparently the rules didn't apply. His rights were violated without recourse. 

Amazingly it didn't work at all. The allegations that were made were obvious lies at best and when they ended up being debunked in the end the Democrats had to try something else, which was their attempted and failed impeachment of President Trump for his totally normal call with Ukraine (a scandal that should have destroyed Joe Biden's chances at a candidacy but didn't because our media is in an incestuous  relationship with the Democratic Party). They are trying yet again with their stupid January 6th investigation and again they will fail. 

Unfortunately I don't think we will see any actual justice here. If President Trump had done the things that Hillary Clinton and her team did he would be executed for treason. But I doubt anyone other than Michael Sussman will go down for this, even though anyone that was aware or aided and abetted this should go down with him. 

I do think that this does raise my impression of President Trump. The powers that be did everything in their power and beyond their power to stop him and only succeeded in the end because they got lucky because a virus leaked from a Chinese lab, which allowed them to illegally change election laws. Trump has to be the most investigated person on Earth and they never found anything that even remotely suggested he was criminal in any way. 

Biden's poll numbers continue to crash...

 

Joe Biden's average approval and disapproval ratings. New York Post/Real Clear Politics. 

Biden's approval polling has fallen below 40% for the first time in Real Clear Politics average of polling. New York Post. The average was 39.8% approval yesterday and climbed slightly to 40% today. Biden's approval rating was relatively high when he took office but began to slip after the Afghanistan withdrawal. The current polling is worse than President Trump had at the end of his term. Biden has faced massive challenges, including runaway inflation, skyrocketing crime, the resurgence of the Coronavirus and the unpopularity of measures to fight it. 

My Comment:

Keep in mind that most polling is biased for the Democrats. I have seen some polls where Biden is even lower than this average, with only one third of people approving of him at any time. My guess is that is probably more accurate than the 40% figure being used here. 

It is no surprise that Biden's numbers are taking. The economic news alone would be enough to torpedo any President. We have record inflation that is the worse it has been in my entire lifetime. If you are around my age, you have never seen inflation this bad before but every time you go to the grocery store you see it for sure. 

Foreign policy has been a mess as well. People still remember what happened in Afghanistan but that's not all. The tensions between us and Russia are exploding as well, and for no good reason. Biden is saying that war with Russia over Ukraine is all but inevitable but hasn't even attempted to answer why on Earth Ukraine is even a passing interest to the United States. 

The Coronavirus has been a huge problem for Biden as well. He famously ran on being able to solve the crisis but has done nothing of the sort. Indeed, more people died under Biden than under Trump. And his actions to try and solve the crisis, vaccines and mandates? They have proven ineffective and deeply unpopular. 

None of this should be news for people that have been paying even the least bit of attention in the past year. Indeed, I have mentioned these problems before. But what is really killing Biden is that he doesn't seem to have a plan to deal with any of this. Indeed, most people don't even think he's in full command of his faculties. He acts like a senile old man and that's probably exactly what he is. 

It seems like all of these problems are going to get worse for Biden. Inflation won't go away until people stop spending money and when that happens the economy will tank. People will start losing jobs and the high prices will remain. It's likely to be the biggest economic crisis in recent history and it's almost entirely due to Joe Biden's policies. 

Foreign policy will remain a mess. I don't think there will be a war with Russia but I do think that our enemies see weakness after the Afghanistan debacle. ISIS is making a comeback and could be a threat soon and China is pushing us hard as well. And Biden doesn't seem capable of handling it. 

The only possible bright spot is the Coronavirus as the Omicron variant is nowhere near the threat that the other variants were. But Biden isn't backing down on Coronavirus restrictions and mandates, despite losing in court and his Democratic Governor allies are pulling back on restrictions. Biden is instead doubling down, insisting on vaccinations and masks. Normally have the virus pull back would result in a boost but Biden is pissing that away by insisting on keeping restrictions. 

Even worse for Biden is he might be about to face a major protest movement against him. The United State may soon see a similar Freedom Convoy effort of blocking cities and logistics due to widespread anger over Biden's presidency. The Canadian version has brought Prime Minster Justin Trudeau to his knees and may end his career. Though the future isn't set in stone and I detailed yesterday why the American version would face more challenges, but if even a small movement erupts and manages to disrupt the American economy even a little bit, Biden will suffer at the polls even more. 

With Biden's popularity tanking and is health being questionable at best, it's a real question if he makes it through his term. Republicans have already said that they will impeach Biden after they take the House and if Biden's popularity gets worse they might actually be able to remove him. 

Is there anything Biden could do to turn things around? I don't really see how. It's his policies that have gotten him into this mess and whenever he is confronted with the fact that what he is doing isn't working he just doubles down again. And many of these problems are things that aren't easy to correct. You can't undo inflation and you can't undo Afghanistan. You could undo Coronavirus restrictions but Biden seems bound and determined to continue them and would regardless get very little credit if he actually does change course. If Biden somehow managed to cure cancer he might turn things around (and he's supposedly trying) but other than that I can't see him pulling himself out of this death spiral. 

US version of the Freedom Convoy organizing for March launch.

 

Truckers protest in Ottawa. Politico/Getty.

An US version of the Freedom Convoy, which has been effective in protesting vaccine mandates in Canada, will be launching on March 4th. Politico. The convoy will start in California and make its way to Washington DC. The movement is being organized on social media and people are discussing how best to shut down cities with trucks. There are also rival convoys being organized which have different starting points and organizers. Similar movements have been launched in Europe, New Zealand and Australia. 

My Comment:

This was pretty much inevitable after the major success the Canadian Freedom Convoy achieved. Though they have not had total success they have gotten politicians to pull back on mandates. They have also exposed Prime Minster Justin Trudeau as a coward and may have even destroyed his political careers. 

The movement has exerted enormous pressure on the Canadian government. They have shut down Ottawa but more importantly they have put a stranglehold on the Canadian economy. Already car manufacturing plants are saying they are slowing production just because of the border crossing protests. 

Using the big rigs in this way is an extremely effective tactic. These trucks do not go anywhere unless the drivers want them to and the government has limited options in how to deal with them. Tow companies don't have the capacity to move them and even if they did most of them refuse to do so. And since the protests have remained peaceful cracking down backfires terribly. 

So can these tactics work here in the US or in other countries? In theory it can. Like I said, the government has limited options on what they can do and these tactics are hugely powerful and exert enormous pressure on the government. If the convoys can stay organized and funded they can and will force Biden to stop his vaccine mandates or even force him to resign. 

But the US convoy has some problems that the Canadians don't have. For one the right in the United States is absolutely paranoid of government infiltration and with good reason. It is widely believed that the January 6th protest was successfully derailed by the FBI and everyone will be afraid that it will happen again with these convoys as well. People smell a trap and may not want to risk it. 

Another problem is that I think it would be very easy to derail the convoy from it's purpose. The Canadian Freedom Convoy has been very on message for the whole protest, they don't care anything else than Coronavirus restrictions. I fear that any American protest would be derailed by American politics. 

Finally, I don't think there is the level of anger against the government for restrictions and mandates here in the United States. For most red states it's largely a non-issue after the worker mandate was quashed by the Supreme Court. And though my state is more of a purple state than a red one, Wisconsin hasn't had any meaningful mandates since last year.  

With that being said, even though our situation is better than Canada, the anger against the government is real. People are utterly disgusted with the Biden administration and even if they aren't personally affected by the mandates. If anything Americans might be more upset with Biden than the Canadians are with Justin Trudeau. 

This, of course, assumes that the Coronavirus is even relevant in March. Governments at the state and national level are pulling back on their mandates. Some of that is due to these protests but much of it is because it just isn't any justification anymore. For the vast majority of people Omicron poses next to no threat at all. The pandemic is all but over. 

Biden's HHS to distribute crack pipes to inner city communities

 

Fox News/Toronto Star. 

Joe Biden's Health and Human Services Department will distribute crack pipes to inner city communities in the name of equity. Fox News. The department will prioritize "underserved communities" and will distributed the pipes to users of crack, methamphetamine and other drugs. Underserved communities are defined as non-white, LGBT and disabled. HHS said the claim was misinformation but documents say that money was reserved to distribute the pipes in the name of safety. 

The document can be found here, with the mention of "safe smoking kits" found on page 8. 

My Comment:

This story is so ridiculous that when I saw it trending on Twitter I thought it was a joke about Biden's son Hunter, who was famously shown with a crack pipe/meth pipe. But after reviewing the document it does appear to be real. It's to the point where parody is indistinguishable from reality. 

To be fair the idea isn't completely stupid. The idea is that if you give people free crack pipes they won't get injured by them or transmit disease to their fellow crackheads. They would also be encouraged to smoke crack and meth instead of injecting it. Injecting any drug is dangerous due to the risk of spreading disease like Hepatitis and HIV. 

With that being said, giving people crack pipes isn't a good idea in the least. The health concerns are negligible as not that many people actually inject crack. Some do inject meth but not many compared to other drugs like heroin. There might be some addicts that will be helped on the margin but not many.

Another point is that crack pipes are easily obtainable or makeable by drug addicts. Pretty much every inner city store sells those glass pipes that have fake flowers in them. Users throw away the flower and use the glass as pipes. And if they can't find them they will use whatever is at hand. 

It's also assuming that crack users will use fresh pipes when given the opportunity. Crackheads are not known for making good decisions and they actually have reasons to reuse pipes. You get more bang for your buck if you reuse crackpipes because you aren't just smoking the crack you have in the pipe, you are getting the residue from previous times as well. 

The worst part of this is the optics for the Biden administration. Biden got into the White House in part because he promised minority communities a better life. Instead he is giving them crack pipes. A brief look on twitter seems to show that the black community especially is pretty offended by this.  

This seems like a policy that nobody asked for and nobody will like. Liberals will assume that it is racist. Conservatives will think that it's utterly ridiculous to give criminals help in committing crime. And the crackheads aren't going to care in the first place. It just seems like a major own goal. 

I am guessing that some functionary in the Biden White House approved this without ever running it by anyone who understands the real world. It was buried deep within a Biden executive order document and they assumed that nobody would ever notice, but the conservative media did.