Pfizer and BioNTech now claim to have the world's first effective Coronavirus vaccine, giving hope that the pandemic might be brought to an end. BBC. The companies tested 43500 people and found the vaccine was 90% effective and had no major health risks. The vaccine is one among dozens being tested but it is the first to show results, and the two companies will be applying for emergency use within the next few weeks. The vaccine requires two doses a week apart to be effective. Pfizer believes that they will be able to 50 million doses done by the end of the year and 1.3 billion done by the end of 2021. The vaccine will be a logistical nightmare as it is required to be stored at a temperature of -112 Fahrenheit. More work will be done in the next few weeks to determine the final effectiveness of the vaccine.
My Comment:
Figures that this news would break after the election. It would have been a huge victory for President Trump and would have shown that his plan to defeat the virus was in fact working. It's academic at this point, but I do wonder if the Trump campaign would have been better able to withstand the voter fraud if this news had broken earlier.
I will note that a degree of skepticism is warranted here. The 90% effectiveness of the study may not hold up to final review. It's just a preliminary finding, but a better finding then most of the other vaccine candidates. It's possible that it won't prove quite so effective.
Logistically, it's looking to be a major issue that it has to be stored at such a low temperature. That will make transporting the vaccine much harder to do and it might require specialized training to administer. These are problems that the United States is well positioned to handle thanks to the mobilization of our military but for third world countries it is going to be a serious issue.
Getting people to take the vaccine will be difficult as well. A lot of people are anti-vax to begin with and with the short lead up time to this vaccine there is some reason to be skeptical that there won't be health risks down the line. That fear is probably somewhat justified but there are going to be conspiracy theories that aren't really grounded in reality.
I know that my company is planning on everyone getting the vaccine and that scares me a bit. I got a flu shot this year and I had very bad reaction (to the point I should have and would have gone to the hospital if I hard realized what was happening to me) so I'm a bit worried I could have a similar reaction here. I also wonder if people who have had the virus before will have to take the vaccine. And what will happen with all the people who had the virus and didn't know it. Taking a vaccine to develop antibodies seems fairly pointless if you already have them.
Still, despite these issues I think this is a very positive step in the right direction. Once the vaccine is out there, there will be less justification for economy killing steps like lockdowns. The most vulnerable people will be protected and the rest of us can start getting back to our regular lives. I don't know about anyone else but I for one am ready for a return to normalcy.
Will it stop the virus though? Honestly, I think the virus would probably die out on its own fairly soon regardless. I haven't seen good evidence that people get infected multiple times and the virus is running out of virgin territory filled with people who don't have antibodies. But a vaccine would certainly speed things along and it's very possible that Coronavirus could be a minor concern by spring and a bad memory by this time next year.
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