Wounded Ukrainian soldiers near Avdiika. New York Times.
The head of Ukraine's intelligence division, General Bundanov, has admitted that Ukraine no longer has any reserves to deploy in the fight against Russia. New York Times. Russia opened up a new front in the war near the major city of Kharkov (Kharkiv in Ukrainian) last week and has had success. General Bundanov was quoted as saying “All of our forces are either here or in Chasiv Yar,” referring to a city (Chasov Yar in Russian) in the southern front that has also come under withering Russian attack. “I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves.”. Bundanov also says that he expects Russia to open another front in the north, this time near Sumy, in the next few days or weeks. He says the Russians are trying to spread Ukrainian forces thin and divert them from the major battles in the south of the country. Russia has not deployed major forces to the Kharkov offensive but has seen great success due to a lack of Ukrainian defenses.
My Comment:
I rarely use the New York Times as a source, both due to their obvious bias and because most of their articles are paywalled. For whatever reason I was able to read this article and I was glad I did because it paints an extremely grim picture for Ukrainian forces and their chances.
General Bundanov was shockingly candid about the state of the Ukranian military at this point in the war. The fact that he says all of his troops are committed to to the battles of Kharkov and Chasov Yar and there are no reserves left is a pretty shocking thing to admit and one that is probably not militarily wise. My guess is that he feels free to speak to the fact because he knows the Russians know that Ukraine is on the backfoot.
I don't think that this is Ukraine just begging for more support either, like they did in earlier stages of the war. I think it has finally sunk in that they are losing the war, from the President on down. Supposedly a lot of veteran troops are getting captured now since they have lost the will to fight. They know how bad their chances are.
There is also the idea that Russia is mere weeks or days away from launching another major attack, this time in the Sumy region. This could be critical as that region is close to the capital, Kiev, and the attack there, if it is successful, could threaten the city. Though I doubt Russia would attack Kiev directly, they could force the government to flee and that would not only cause chaos it would also further erode the legitimacy of a regime that is already canceling elections and has a President that has a mandate that ends in mere days.
It's possible that the Sumy operation could be another distraction attack like the one in Kharkov. Russia has not sent that many troops there and it could be another attempt to just further thin out Ukrainian forces. That's what Ukraine believes but it is possible that Sumy is the real Russian summer offensive and if that's the case things could get real bad for Ukraine real fast.
Much of the problem is that Ukraine was supposed to have built defenses in the Kharkov region but it was largely not done due to utterly hilarious levels of corruption in the country. There were supposed to be minefields laid, bunkers built, weapons staged, but instead the Ukrainians are stuck with hand dug trenches and little else. Things might slow down as Russia starts to enter more easily defended urban areas but supposedly the small city of Vovchansk fell today, which might be evidence otherwise.
Keep in mind that Russia is advancing on many fronts. In addition to Kharkov, there is a major battle at Chasov Yar, which, if captured, will open up a major hole in their lines. I am also hearing rumors that Robotyne, the one small city that Ukraine kind of captured during last year's Summer offensive has been captured as well. That city is clear across the country and far away from the fighting near Kharkov. If the Sumy operation is real than we should expect even more of this to continue.
I do think that this is the beginning of the end of the Ukraine War. Though I don't know if a general collapse is going to happen in Ukraine I do think that they are unlikely to launch any further offensive operations. They are under pressure on all fronts and they no longer have any real reserves to plug any holes the Russians open up. I am guessing we will see the largest movements of the front lines since Russia abandoned the Kharkov region earlier in the war. But this time it will be the Ukrainians retreating to more defensible positions.
The real question is if Ukraine will be able to survive that retreat. If it does the war will continue for some time but if the retreat turns into a rout we could see a quick end to the war. I genuinely hope for the 2nd outcome, this war has gone on long enough and it would be much better for the killing to end.
My biggest fear is that NATO will do something stupid in response. Though threats to deploy troops to Ukraine have so far proven to be mostly empty (despite reports of western "mercenaries" on the ground) losing Ukraine would prove to be a major threat to the powers that be. I just worry that they will do something incredibly stupid or incredibly evil if their backs are far enough up the wall and there isn't a way for them to save face. My hope and guess is that Zelensky will be offered up as a scapegoat and will be blamed for the loss for not following Western combat doctrine and then he will be quietly or loudly disposed off...
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