Friday, May 24, 2024

President Zelensky remains in power even after his term has expired.

 

President Zelensky. Reuters. 

President Zelensky remains in power even after his five year term has expired. Reuters. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that causes legitimacy issues for the embattled Ukrainian President and could derail any peace talks. Ukraine is under Martial Law and has canceled elections under their constitution. Putin was quoted as saying "But who to negotiate with? That's not an idle question... Of course we realize the legitimacy of the incumbent head of state is over,". The issue of negotiations is a pertinent one as Reuters has reported that Putin may be willing to settle with the land he has taken now. However, Ukraine says that Russia is not serious about a peace deal. Russia was also to hold elections, criticized by its enemies, during the conflict. 

My comment:
As an aside one of the most annoying things about writing about the Ukraine conflict is the constant and ever changing spelling of almost every person, place and thing in the conflict. I have seen President Zelensky's named spelled at least three different ways, including Zelenskyy and now Zelenskiy. It's infuriating and incredibly frustrating. 

As for the article itself, I have been very critical of Ukraine for this matter. Canceling elections and allowing a President to continue serving after his term expires is not the action of a healthy regime. I understand that what they are doing is "legal" under their constitution but it's still an absolute joke. 

Indeed, America has run elections during both World Wars and even during the civil war. Russia itself was able to run an election during their war with Ukraine. But Ukraine can't do so? Why not? Are they afraid Zelensky is going to be voted out? I understand that the logistics are difficult, but no so difficult that they can't actually do anything about it. I also think that it has little to do with Russia's new offensive, they had plenty of time to hold an election during the winter/spring mud season which slowed combat to a crawl. The fact that they didn't shows that it's not about the military emergency, it's about holding onto power. 

Putin is right that this raises legitimacy issues. Of course we shouldn't take Putin's word on it but I have to say that I'd be just as critical of him if he canceled Russia's elections because of the war. There is plenty to criticize about the legitimacy of Russia's Democracy (though not as much as the west says and most of the actual problems Russia has are also present in Ukraine and the United States for that matter) but at least they are bothering to hold elections. That isn't the case now with Ukraine. So much for being a bastion of "democracy". 

But I also agree with Zelensky on one thing. I don't think that the story that Putin is willing to settle for what he has now is real. Reuters quoted four anonymous sources and you know how I feel about anonymous sources. I think it's real in that Russia would probably take a deal that accomplished most of their goals in Ukraine, but it's absolutely not something that Ukraine and NATO would be willing to agree too. 

It also makes zero sense for Putin to back off now. If he does he would allow Ukraine to rebuild their military and start the war up again at a time of their choosing. He also would not accomplish his goal of demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine. 

And seriously, why would he do so when the military situation looks so good? A small recon force was able to gain more territory back from Ukraine in the Kharkov offensive than Ukraine took back during the entire summer offensive last year. Ukraine is down to drafting amputees and even Reddit moderators (which, if you know anything at all about Reddit, is the most pathetic thing you can think of) so it's not like Ukraine is doing well in the war. Why snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

Finally, I do think that Zelensky's hold on power is a lot less solid now than it was earlier in the war. Not everyone in Ukraine is happy about what he is doing and he already faced a major assassination plot recently. Now the fact that he continues to hold a position that he no longer earned through an election I think the chances of Zelensky being offed are a lot higher than they were before... 

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