Joe Biden speaks with Benjamin Netanyahu on the eve of a major offensive in Rafah.

 

Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu. AP.

Joe Biden has spoken with Benjamin Netanyahu on the eve of a major offensive in Rafah. AP. Israel appears to be planning for a major offensive on the Hamas controlled city and Biden has said he opposes such an action. Israel ordered 100,000 civilians to leave the area and have launched a series of airstrikes. Hamas said they have accepted a cease-fire proposal though Israel has signaled they won't accept the deal. Netanyahu has vowed that he would go it alone in Rafah if necessary and notes that Hamas still has over 100 hostages. 

My Comment:

Biden does not have much influence over Israel and Netanyahu. If Israel wants to go to Rafah they will go to Rafah and whatever little pressure Biden can bring on Israel will not be enough to stop them. Biden angered Netanyahu years ago and he can't really do anything to stop Netanyahu. 

Besides, not going into Rafah would not make any sense. Indeed, not going into Rafah and destroying what is left of Hamas would pretty much undermine the entire cause of the war. Not doing so would just allow Hamas to regroup and rearm and could lead to another October 7th style attack a few years down the line. It would make no sense for Israel to not neutralize Hamas once and for all. 

That's why I doubt much will come from Hamas accepting the cease fire. Israel has nothing to gain for allowing Hamas a chance to avoid destruction, so I would be utterly shocked if Israel goes along with it. I doubt they would even get any credit for it among their critics since they hate Israel no matter what they do. 

As for the battle itself, I do think it will be a bloody affair. Urban combat is always tough and that goes double when the enemy is fanatical and is more than willing to allow civilians to act as human shields. There are going to be heavy casualties on both sides, probably more than we have seen on either side of the war before. 

That's about the only reason I could think of for Israel taking a deal. Israel hasn't taken a huge amount of casualties but they could in a battle with Rafah. And Hamas isn't the only side that needs to rest and rearm. If a deal happens it will be because of that, not because of Joe Biden or the actions of protesters. 

As for Biden, he's kind of screwed no matter what. He can't really do anything to stop Israel and he also can't do much to appease the far left protesters that are against him. Even if Biden were to somehow end the war, they would not give him any credit for it. But with a major battle in Rafah very likely, Biden is going to come even harsher criticism from the pro-Hamas faction of his party...