Photo showing the helicopter that crashed. IRNA/AP.
A helicopter with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and other high ranking officials has crashed in Iran. AP. Raisi had been in Azerbaijan for a dam opening ceremony and the helicopter had a "hard landing" after the visit. The helicopter went down in mountainous terrain and the area is also forested. Bad weather, including large amounts of mist, have complicated rescue efforts, which continue. It is unclear if Raisi is alive or dead, with the government instructing people to pray for Raisi. Raisi is considered a hardliner and was in line to replace Ayatollah Khamenei. The incident comes after high tensions in the region after tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran. Iran's relations with Azerbaijan are also considered strained due to a terror attack targeting Iran's embassy last year and Azerbaijan having good relations with Israel.
My Comment:
My guess is that President Raisi is dead and Iran just hasn't been able to confirm it yet. Helicopter crashes are not easy to walk away from and Turkey supposedly has footage of burning wreckage. And even if Raisi survived the crash itself it is taking so long for rescuers to find him he could have died from injuries or exposure to the elements right now. My guess is the only reason they haven't announced his death is because they haven't been able to actually reach the site.
It sounds like the helicopter went down in a remote part of Iran, far away from any rescuers. The weather conditions, which may have played a role in the crash in the first place, appear to be making things dramatically more difficult to the point where they had to call in a Turkish drone equipped with IR cameras to see the site of the crash.
A world leader presumably dying in a helicopter crash would be a big story at anytime but given the extreme tensions right now there are going to be people who believe that this was an assassination and not an accident. It's certainly worth considering that this could have been an attack on Iran's leadership. And regardless of what actually happened, people will believe this to be an assassination regardless.
I would caution against that. The most obvious reason being that we don't even have confirmation that Raisi is dead, though it seems very likely. The other reason is that sometimes helicopters do in fact crash. Indeed, they are considered dramatically more dangerous that airplanes due to how low they fly, how complex they are and how few failsafe's they have in comparisons. Iran's president dying in a helicopter crash would not be unprecedented. Indeed, there have been enough celebrities, including Kobe Bryant and Stevie Ray Vaughn, that have died that it does not seem unusual.
Of course this could have been an assassination, though I think that is unlikely. And even if it isn't, it's possible that it could be treated as one. Israel is the obvious suspect but I don't think they would want to stir the hornet's nest like this. They had their little tit-for-tat exchange with Iran and the issue appears to be settled at this point. Why risk a major conflict with Iran at this point? It doesn't make any sense.
A more likely possibility is terrorism. ISIS is active in both Iran and Azerbaijan and they could have possibly snuck a bomb on board the helicopter. That also seems unlikely given that the helicopter would have had high security. I guess the helicopter could have been shot down, but I still think the most likely scenario is that the helicopter just crashed because that's what they do on occasion.
What are the repercussions for this incident? Hopefully minor. I am hoping cooler heads prevail and that this is proven to be an accident. Who knows, Raisi might even be found alive and well, though that seems very unlikely at this point. If not then Iran will have to face a difficult transition to a new president. Hopefully things don't go any further than that but given how high tensions are right now you kind of have to wonder...
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