Biden gives Ukraine permission to strike targets in Russia with US weapons...

 

Joe Biden. Politico/AP.

The Biden Administration has given Ukraine permission to strike targets in Russia with US weapons. Politico. The weapons can only be used in the area of Kharkov, where Russia has had a successful offensive. The Biden administration claimed that the weapons could only be used in counter battery fire or to disrupt incoming attacks. US officials said that the policy preventing Ukraine from striking targets inside Russia outside of this exception has not changed. A ban on hitting civilian infrastructure is still in place, despite multiple Ukrainian attacks on civilians in Russia. 

My Comment:

This story is obviously getting overshadowed by the show trial in New York today. That's an important story but the fact of the matter is that Trump being convicted on false charges is not anywhere near as important as Biden making World War III a lot more likely. Indeed, the election is totally moot if we end up getting into a nuclear war with Russia. 

Despite what the Biden administration says this isn't about the Kharkov offensive. That offensive was mostly a probe by light infantry and was designed to force Ukraine to pull troops off of other fronts. In that it succeeded, Ukraine did throw all their reserves into the battle and even pulled troops away from other battles. But the offensive has now stalled out due to those forces. 

So why did Biden authorize this? It's not because of Kharkov but because Russia is readying a major offensive. Supposedly that offensive is going to be in the area of Sumy and my guess is that Ukraine wants to disrupt the troop concentrations there. They know those troops were there but were unable to do anything about it until now. 

Will it do much? Probably not. As I have been saying for months now, the problem for Ukraine isn't weapons it's the fact that they are out of recruits. They are down to drafting amputees and Reddit moderators and simply don't have the troops to stop a major offensive. It will increase casualties on the Russian side but won't actually change the outcome of the battle. 

More importantly, I see this as a green light for Ukraine to attack Russian civilians in this region. Ukraine has always shelled civilians, that's a major reason why they tried to hang onto Adveeka even after it was clear that they had lost the city. They had been shelling Donbass since the war began and were mad that they could no longer attack civilians. Of course this would be a war crime but that has never stopped Ukraine before. 

Russia will, of course, see this as a major escalation and there may be a response. Indeed, it's possible they will hit behind the lines in Ukraine or possibly beyond. Putin is a lot more level headed and sane than Joe Biden so I don't see him escalating at the moment, but anything is possible. I do wonder how much more Russia is going to take before they finally decide to strike back.