The Trump rally at Wildwood New Jersey. Fox News.
Trump campaigned in deep blue New Jersey and drew a massive crowd. Fox News. Between 80,000 and 100,000 people showed up to the rally in a state that has gone traditionally for Democrats. It was the largest political rally in New Jersey history. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said that the rally shows that Biden could be in trouble in the state as he would be unable to get that many people to one of his rallies. Rally attendees said that they feel New Jersey could go red due to widespread outrage over border security and the economy.
My Comment:
It's not surprising that Trump got 100,000 people to show up in New Jersey, Trump gets huge crowds everywhere he goes. I know the media is trying to gaslight saying that the crowd was smaller or that people left early, but they do that every time Trump speaks. The fact that New Jersey is a blue state does not matter all that much, it is still a state with a number of Republicans.
People tend to think that blue states only have Democrats but that has never been the case. In most states it's only the cities that have large numbers of Democrats while the rest of the state gets dominated by those cities. And even blue cities there are token Republicans.
Does that mean that New Jersey is in play? It's hard to say. Three years ago the current governor, Phil Murphy, just barely won against Jack Ciattarelli, 51 to 48%. That was an off year election in a year without President Trump helping down ballot candidates. And New Jersey has had Republican governor's before, though Chris Christie was a RINO, so it is not like it's totally unimaginable that Trump could win here in a three way race against Joe Biden and RFK Jr.
On the other hand Joe Biden got 57% of the vote in 2020 and that is a pretty big margin to make up. Though I think Biden is dramatically less popular than he was in 2020, is he seven points less in a blue state less popular?
If New Jersey actually is in play that means that Donald Trump does not consider the swing states to be so. Is that realistic? I am not sure, I don't think that the elections in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin are going to be fair. Trump could have a 60-40 advantage in the states and still not win due to obvious and widespread voter fraud. Considering those states to be safe seems unwise.
Of course I do respect the strategy here. If Trump campaigns in New Jersey then Biden will have to as well. Given that Trump is stuck in New York for the ridiculous show trial, it makes sense to campaign both in New Jersey and New York. The more Biden has to defend these blue states the less money and energy he will have to campaign in the actual swing states.
Still, I think New Jersey is a long shot. If Trump does manage to win there I think we will be seeing a massive landslide for him. Is it worth it to campaign there? Probably, especially since Trump is stuck in New York anyways. I am hopefully that at least a couple of traditional blue states, like New York, New Jersey, Minnesota or Virginia could end up going for Trump.
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