Will Afghanistan become a haven for terror groups like al-Qaeda?

 

Taliban fighters. DW/PPA.

After the fall of Kabul and the government of Afghanistan, could the country be used as a haven for terror groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS? DW. The United States invaded Afghanistan to destroy al-Qaeda but there are fears that the terror group could come back. ISIS is another fear since they have a presence in the country. With the Taliban in control of almost all of the country, anti-terror operations would be difficult at best for US forces. However, al-Qaeda is a shadow of their former self and ISIS and the Taliban are enemies. The Taliban also wants to have more respectability to foreign governments and tolerating terror groups could jeopardize that. However, the Taliban still has relationships with al-Qaeda remnants.

My Comment:

I tend to agree that Afghanistan will not become a terror base. As I wrote yesterday, ISIS in Afghanistan was largely destroyed and are mortal enemies to the Taliban. They still exist but are not anywhere near the threat they used to be. 

Could they regroup and threaten the Taliban? It's possible. With the efforts of the Taliban to be more "respectable" there may be a few Islamists that would see them as "selling out". ISIS has always been more extreme than al-Qaeda and the Taliban so it's possible they will gain some recruits, especially if they manage to pull off a terror attack on Kabul.  

With that being said, ISIS probably won't become a major threat in Afghanistan. For one the Taliban hates them and will do whatever they can to root them out, to the point where they may allow foreign powers to bomb them.

ISIS would also not have any funding if they took over parts of Afghanistan. Unlike Iraq, Syria and Libya, there would be little to no resources they could exploit and there isn't a tax base in Afghanistan. There just isn't a future there for them. 

As for al-Qaeda coming back, how? Al-Qaeda in the region is mostly gone. There is hardly anyone left to fight and what little resources and people they have are concentrated in al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. I am sure there are a few al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan but they aren't big enough that they could take over enough to be an international threat.

Plus I don't think that the Taliban will give them safe haven this time around. Though I don't buy their attempt at respectability they also don't want to give anyone an excuse to send troops back in. In the short term it makes zero sense for them to invite al-Qaeda back in.

I do have to note that there is a possibility that the danger of terror groups in Afghanistan will be amplified by the military industrial complex. They hate the fact that we pulled out and would be happy to have any reason to go back in. To Biden's credit he seems to be ignoring them, but who knows what will happen in the future? Take any reports of terror groups popping up in Afghanistan with a rather large grain of salt.