Afghanistan attacks Pakistan border region.

 

Afghan troops patrolling near the Pakistani border in abandoned US Humvees. BBC/AFP.

Afghanistan has attacked the Pakistan border region in retaliation for an airstrike. BBC. Pakistan and Afghanistan have differing claims on casualties but both acknowledge that the attacks occurred. Pakistan bombed a market in Kabul last week, claiming it was a hotbed of terrorist activity. Pakistan has long accused the Taliban of harboring the Pakistani Taliban, also known as the TPP, which have launched several attacks against Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban, which now rules the country, has always denied connections to the TPP. The move comes as Afghanistan has attempted to reform their image and reopen ties with other countries, finding success at normalizing relations with Pakistan's historic enemy, India. 

My Comment:

Interesting situation on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Both sides are claiming they beat back the other side in this border raid. Without a neutral third party, it's pretty impossible to tell which side got the worse of this conflict, and I would believe either side. Both the Taliban and Pakistan are well equipped and are battle hardened.  

It is frustrating to see the Taliban using US equipment in this conflict, regardless of your opinion of it. There is zero reason that we left behind all the weapons, vehicles and equipment for the Taliban to use against their enemies. They never should have been allowed to keep all of this stuff and it should have either been recovered or destroyed during our withdrawal. 

As for who is in the right here, I don't think either side is blameless. I do think that the Taliban is probably tolerating, if not actively helping, the TPP. The Taliban tolerates the TPP But I also don't understand how bombing markets in Kabul and other parts of Afghanistan is going to help and doing so is pretty obviously an act of war. Supposedly a few high ranking TPP militants were killed in this attack, so it's not like the Pakistani forces were totally off base, but they did cause some collateral damage. 

I am assuming that this will be the end of it for now. This was a tit-for-tat attack and it's something that the Taliban and Pakistan have done before, since the Taliban took over. There have been airstrikes and border skirmishes before and they never erupted into a full scale war. Indeed, the previous skirmishes have been exactly the same as these attacks now, so this really isn't unprecedented. 

And it's not like either side is really for war. Pakistan has serious economic issues and is threatened by India, so they have a major incentive to avoid a major conflict. The Taliban have major issues of their own, not the least of which is that they have no real allies and are international pariahs. They also have their own problem with terrorists, as ISIS-K remains a major force in Afghanistan. Indeed, that's a major reason why they tolerate the TPP in the first place. 

The Elephant in the room is, of course, India. These strikes occurred while a major Afghan diplomat  Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi was visiting India and a major normalization of relations between India and Afghanistan. India still hasn't recognized the Taliban but they are re-opening their embassy and providing them additional assistance. This has obviously infuriated Pakistan and may be a major reason why they launched the airstrikes in the first place. 

President Trump wants Bagram air base in Afghanistan back from the Taliban.

 

An Afghan Mullah reviews troops at Bagram three years after the withdrawal. Fox News/AP.

President Donald Trump wants Bagram air base in Afghanistan back from the Taliban. Fox News. Trump said he was trying to get the base back and though he could make a deal because the Taliban "need things from us". He also said it was in a strategic position and was "an hour away from where China makes their nuclear weapons". There was a high level meeting between the Taliban and the United States last March, though that was an effort to release George Glezmann, who was released shortly after. The Taliban has long wished to restore diplomacy with the United States and a deal over Bagram would go a long way towards doing so. America withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021 after almost 20 years of war. 

My Comment:

As with everything with Trump, it is unclear if this is just a suggestion or a serious attempt at getting something done. Trump has made suggestions like this before and nothing has come from it. But he has also done things that nobody else could accomplish, like his historic visit to North Korea. If anyone would do something as seemingly impossible as this, it would be President Donald Trump. 

The benefits of this acquisition would be obvious. It would obviously be a major threat to China to have a major air base so close to their borders and Trump is right, it's near where they make their nukes. That was true when we owned the base for 20 years and it would be true again if we took it back. And it's not like we have been able to replace Bagram since we left there. 

It would also have other benefits outside of China. Having a major air base in Afghanistan would also be helpful if there was a resurgence of ISIS or other terror groups in Afghanistan. To the Taliban's credit, they have not so far allowed Afghanistan to be a hive of terror groups and have fought ISIS regularly. This of course makes sense because they have been major victims of ISIS as well, so it's not like they would stand in our way if we wanted to use forces at Bagram to attack ISIS. 

Another factor is that normalizing relations with Afghanistan would be a great way to gain access to their massive mineral resources, resources that have until now been largely unused. Regaining Bagram and having a real relationship with the Taliban would help secure these resources and perhaps keep China from exploiting them as well. 

Of course, such a move would be controversial. The Taliban are extremist Muslims. They provided aid and protection for al-Qaeda before, during an after the 9/11 attacks. And they have directly killed US soldiers in combat during our 20 year war with them. There are a lot of folks that would find any relationship with the Taliban to be abhorrent, and it's not like they don't have a point. 

There is also the fact that the Taliban is pretty horrible even if you ignore the war issues. They absolutely have major human rights issues and the way they treat women is absolutely abhorrent. And they are radical Muslims, with all the problems that implies. 

I am guessing that any potential deal with the Taliban will face a lot of resistance domestically. Trump would have a hard deal getting congressional approval for this. Not only are the Democrats not going to make a deal, they hate Trump no matter what, he's likely to face a lot of resistance from his own party, and not just from the war hawks. And there would be a lot of veterans and families of veterans that would be unhappy about this as well. 

Of course there is a long history of making friends out of enemies after America went to war with them. Germany and Japan are obviously allies now, and strong ones at that. Same thing with Vietnam, and that war was even worse than the war against the Taliban. The main difference I see is how recent we are normalizing relations, it's only been four years. There are still a lot of open wounds and for that reason I don't see this happening during Trump's administration. He might pull it off, but I don't know if I would put money on it. 

FBI arrests Afghan man for election day terror plot...

 

FBI Headquarters in Washington DC.BBC/Getty.

The FBI has arrested an Afghan man for an election day terror plot. BBC. The suspect is a 27 year old man from Afghanistan named Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi. He was an ISIS supporter and had sent money to an ISIS front charity and had also evacuated his family in preparation for his attack. Tawhedi was seeking to purchase multiple AK-style rifles but ended up trying to purchase them from the FBI and was arrested. His plan was to attack a large group of people on election day and was researching targets in Washington DC. Tawhedi was on a special immigrant visa after the fall of Kabul. 

My Comment:

Once again, a stupid terrorist got caught. I think this guy would have been able to purchase firearms legally since he was a legal resident and living in Oklahoma. Instead of purchasing weapons from a gun dealer which he probably would have been able to do, he tried to get AK's from someone he should have obviously suspected was an FBI agent. 

Still, this was a serious threat. Had this man gotten rifles he would have been able to carry out this plot. It looked like he just wanted to do a mass shooting in the name of ISIS and that isn't particularly hard to pull off. Getting in the country was the hardest part and he was already here. If he had gotten those weapons and found a crowded place in DC he could have killed a lot of people. And given the long lines on election day... 

Indeed, this could have actually affected the course of the election. A lot of people vote on election day itself and if someone shot up a polling place it could scare a lot of people away from the polls, which could lead to unpredictable results. It's something that hasn't actually happened yet but it is something I have thought about a lot. 

It is also concerning that this guy was plotting in favor of ISIS. Far from being destroyed, ISIS is having a bit of a comeback. They no longer control much in the way of territory but they still exist and are still pulling off terror attacks. Indeed, the most powerful ISIS group left is in Afghanistan. Though they are a shadow of what they once were, they are still inspiring people to commit terror attacks. 

This also seems like an obvious consequence to letting thousands of Afghans into the country in the wake of the fall of Kabul. Some of those folks we owed it to because they worked for us and would have been killed by the Taliban. But there wasn't much in the way of vetting when these people were brought in and I would not be surprised if this was the only terrorist that managed to get into the country. I know that Haitians and Venezuelans have gotten most of the bad press, it's not like the Afghans we have brought in aren't causing problems of their own, and this is a good example of that. 

Taliban celebrates third year in power with parade showing captured US equipment.

 

Taliban fighters at the parade on a captured US vehicle. Fox News/AP.

The Taliban has celebrated their third year in power with a parade showing captured US equipment. Fox News. The parade happened at Bagram Airfield, which was a major base for the US during the 20 year war with the Taliban. The parade showed captured US vehicles, weapons and even helicopters. The Taliban has not been recognized as a legitimate government but they are attempting to reach out to other countries including the United States for diplomatic relations. The parade probably was made to shore up domestic stability, though it may also be a message towards the United States. 

My Comment:

It's amazing that we essentially don't talk about how the Taliban took over the entirely of the Afghanistan and led America to an embarrassing defeat. The failure is laid at the feet of Joe Biden and his Vice President Kamala Harris and that failure is a huge deal. But nobody talks about it anymore, even when the Democrats were trying to push out Joe Biden for being senile. 

Why did Afghanistan fail? Much of it has to deal with the incompetence of the Afghan government itself. But I put a lot of blame on Joe Biden as well. Donald Trump had negotiated a deal to leave Afghanistan but Biden broke the deal and that encouraged Afghanistan to attack earlier than we were prepared for. Had Biden simply kept to the schedule the Taliban probably would have won eventually but I doubt they would have been able to capture all of this equipment. 

These weapons were left behind during the evacuation of the country. The US government focused on evacuating people instead of weapons and that was probably the right thing to do, despite the failures in that area as well. But doing so left the Taliban all the weapons and vehicles they need to keep control of the country. 

This isn't entirely a bad thing. Though the weapons being in the Taliban hands has made resistance to their rule more difficult, it also means they are a formidable threat to ISIS in Afghanistan. ISIS-K is the largest and most dangerous remaining faction of the terror group and has been responsible to some of the larger more recent terror attacks, including the massive one in Moscow. Hopefully the Taliban uses these weapons to fight ISIS. 

The Taliban is sending mixed messages here. They are trying to get better relations with other countries including the United States, but it's hard not to see this parade as a pretty explicit middle finger to the United States. I doubt the Biden administration is happy to see voters reminded of one of their most massive and embarrassing diplomatic failures. Perhaps the Taliban know that Kamala Harris is going to lose and want to curry favor with Donald Trump? 

Regardless, it's important to not read too much into a single parade. This was mostly for domestic use as it shows the Taliban as being powerful and in charge. All those weapons and vehicles will deter any uprising and shows that the Taliban is still fully in charge of Afghanistan. 

Suicide bombing in Kabul has killed between five and twenty people.

 

Taliban fighters near the site of the bombing. BBC/Getty.

ISIS has taken credit for a suicide bombing that killed between five and twenty people. BBC. Taliban sources disagree on how many deaths have happened with some saying only five died while others saying twenty did. The attack occurred outside of Afghanistan's Foreign Ministry in Kabul. The bomber had tried to enter the building but was unable to get inside. No foreign government officials were in the Ministry during the attack. ISIS has conducted a string of attacks in Kabul with foreign governments being a major target. 

My Comment:

Though I am of course disturbed by this attack, I do have to say that it somewhat satisfying to see the Taliban on the other side of a violent insurgency. The Taliban used to use the same tactics against US forces in Afghanistan and now ISIS is giving them a taste of their own medicine. It's unfortunate though that the primary targets appear to be random civilians. 

The casualty rate is probably higher than the upper estimate that the Taliban has given. This bombing was in a populated area and many of the injured could die due to the poor medical care available in Afghanistan after the fall of the former government. 

This attack may have been targeting foreign governments as well. There was a rumor that China had sent delegates to the foreign ministry at the time of the attack. Those rumors turned out to be false, but perhaps that explains the timing of the attacks? Killing a bunch of Chinese diplomats would be a coup for the Taliban. 

Still, this attack seems like a partial failure to me. They were not able to get into the building and were turned away at the door. They only killed civilians and were not able to kill any diplomats. They did cause quite a few deaths but not any military officials or diplomats. 

As for ISIS they seem to be picking up the pace of attacks in Afghanistan. ISIS has been able to launch quite a few attacks recently, mostly in Kabul. They are making a comeback there and it's pretty easy to see why. The Taliban is not as effective at fighting them as the United States was. The Afghans no longer have America's intelligence assets or the ability to launch airstrikes. They can still fight and kill ISIS but they don't have the tech advantage the US had. 

Still, I am not too worried about ISIS taking over the country or using it as a base to attack western countries. The Taliban has a pretty strong grip on Afghanistan and though ISIS will be hard to route out I don't think they are strong enough to beat the Taliban. They are powerful enough to make things miserable for the Taliban but that's about it. 

Bombing targeting a religious school in Afghanistan leaves 17 dead

 

Some of the survivors of the attack recovering at the hospital. BBC/AFP.

A bombing targeting a religious school has left 17 people dead in Afghanistan. BBC. 26 people were wounding in the bombing that occurred in Aybak. The victims are mostly children aged 9 to 15 and were students at the school. Afghanistan was taken over by the Taliban last year and they have had major problems with terrorism since then. 

Fox News is reporting that the Taliban blame ISIS for the attack. Fox News quoted a Taliban source directly and they confirmed that ISIS was behind the attack. ISIS-K is the local ISIS affiliate and is one of the more active ones, being responsible for many terror attacks in Afghanistan. 

My Comment:

Afghanistan again is a mess and it obviously has not improved with the Taliban taking over. Though ISIS has not taken credit for the attack, I believe the Taliban when they are saying they are responsible. Why? Because ISIS is the biggest terror group in the country and it certainly isn't al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda is a shell if its former self and are basically allies with the Taliban, they wouldn't attack them. 

ISIS also has a long history of targeting schools and children. Indeed, one of their African affiliates, Boko Haram, translates to "education is forbidden". You would think that the differences between the Taliban and ISIS would be small enough that they wouldn't care about religious schools, but that isn't the case. ISIS believes that nobody should teach children but them and if anyone else is doing so the lives of those children are forfeit.

This is one of the main reasons that ISIS is one of the evilest groups in recent histories. Even most terrorists are loath to target schools and children. But ISIS has always made targeting them a priority and have no problems with it whatsoever. It's what makes them such a horrible group and one of the reasons I still cover them even though they are far past their heyday. 

Still, this attack shows that the Afghanistan branch at least has some life in them. This was a fairly big and sophisticated attack and it is far from the only one ISIS has pulled off since they lost their main bases in Syria and Iraq. Indeed, ISIS-K is the biggest remaining affiliate and they may be making a bit of a resurgence. 

 The Taliban are now seeing what it is like to have an insurgency facing them instead of them being the insurgency. In theory they should be able to handle it but given how much of a mess Afghanistan is and the lack of foreign support, they may have serious difficulty taking ISIS out. I don't know if they will get any help in their war against ISIS either, they have burned a lot of bridges. 

Should the United States care? I guess it depends. Right now ISIS-K isn't anything other than a regional threat. But I do worry that if ISIS takes enough territory there they may be able to use Afghanistan to launch terror attacks throughout the world. That is, of course, what al-Qaeda did back in 2001. The big difference is that the Taliban offered al-Qaeda sanctuary and support and ISIS will not be getting the same thing obviously. 

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri reported dead after drone strike in Afghanistan.

 

Al-Qaeda leaders Osama Bin Laden (left) and Ayman al-Zawahiri. Politico/Getty.

The leader of al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri has been reported dead after a drone strike in Kabul Afghanistan. Politico. The strike was carried out by the CIA after a long term effort to track down al-Zawahiri via his family. Al-Zawahiri was the leader of al-Qaeda and was one of the few leaders from the 9/11 era of terrorists that was still on the run. However, his terror network was but a shadow of itself at its peak. It is unclear if Afghanistan helped in the operation, allowed it to happen or was not informed of the strike. Nobody else was reported killed in the strike. It is unclear who will lead al-Qaeda without al-Zawahiri.

My Comment:

There are major reasons to be skeptical about this report. The first is the fact that al-Qaeda themselves do not appear to have acknowledged the death of al-Zawahiri. Once that happens I will believe it is true with a reasonable amount of certainty, but until then I remain skeptical. Since this attack happened over the weekend it is somewhat surprising that they have yet to address the issue as of this writing. 

 Another huge reason for skepticism is that al-Zawahiri has been reported dead more times than I remember. Every single time so far those rumors turned out to be false, often with al-Zawahiri releasing a new video tape that made everyone that made the claim look like a fool. Sometimes he was killed in battle sometimes he died of old age but every time he came back. 

I also have doubt in the competence of the CIA to actually pull this off. They have not exactly covered themselves in glory lately and I don't know if they are skilled enough to actually catch al-Zawahiri without killing a bunch of innocent people. Indeed, we have no idea if it was actually al-Zawahiri that was killed in the strike, for all we know it was a body double or some random innocent person. 

And it's not like the Biden administration doesn't have a motivation to lie about this. Biden himself is polling at around 33% approval and his foreign policy is a partial explanation as to why. Though the media has moved on from Afghanistan, the utter debacle that was the withdrawal remains in the minds of many Americans. 

What does it mean if al-Zawahiri is dead though? Not much. Core al-Qaeda is mostly a joke now with it being long overshadowed by its affiliates and competitors. Al-Zawahiri himself was a lot more interested in surviving than actual operations. Other than releasing a few videos every few years he was mostly a non-factor. He may have had some value as a figurehead but even that was diminished. 

Al-Qaeda themselves have not been relevant for a very long time. ISIS was the leader of Islamic terrorism for years and even now with ISIS in a major decline, they are still much more relevant than core al-Qaeda is as well. And al-Qaeda affiliates such as AQAP and AQIM are dramatically more important than the core group, which mostly consisted of al-Zawahiri himself and a few hundred fighters. 

What is interesting if this story is legit is if the Taliban helped in any way. It was fairly shocking that al-Zawahiri was in Afghanistan in the first place as everyone thought he was in Pakistan, which he probably should have remained. I don't know if the Taliban sold al-Zawahiri out but if they did it would go along way to normalizing relations with the United States, but would cause major problems with al-Qaeda in their borders. My guess is that if anything happened the Taliban were tipped off that an operation was happening and nothing else. 

So if al-Zawahiri is dead, does Joe Biden deserve any credit for it? He does, but not much. Like I said, al-Zawahiri was largely irrelevant, but it would be good to see one of the last people responsible for 9/11 finally brought to justice. And it is good that they finally did a drone strike that hit the right person and didn't kill a bunch of innocent people. But like I said, until al-Qaeda confirms the death or the CIA brings back a body, I remain skeptical of this report. 

Massive earthquake in Afghanistan kills at least 1000 people.

 

People evacuate the injured via helicopter. CNBC/Bakhtar News Agency. 

A massive earthquake in Afghanistan has killed at least 1000 people. Reuters.  The magnitude 6.1 quake destroyed buildings and trapped people inside of the rubble. Rescue operations are being complicated by bad weather, including heavy rains and landslides. The Taliban are trying to coordinate the rescue operations and the effort will be a major challenge for them. Afghanistan is dealing with a major economic crisis in the wake of the Taliban's takeover. The earthquake was the worst one in 20 years in terms of casualties. 

My Comment:

Americans have largely forgotten about Afghanistan as the media has done everything they can to memory-hole how the Taliban took over the country. But it happened and it is still having repercussions for the region. 

The Taliban are probably not going to deal with this event well. They aren't helped by the weather which is extremely bad and might be a disaster in its own right. It's really hard to rescue people in torrential rain and landslides are going to complicate things even more. That's the last thing they need. 

But they were going to have problems regardless. Much of the infrastructure in Afghanistan was destroyed and the Taliban have largely been cut off from western help. They just don't have the equipment and skills to rescue their people here. Indeed, I was very surprised that they still had some helicopters flying to assist in rescue operations. 

This could be very bad news for the Taliban. They are already dealing with an economic disaster that this earthquake will make worse. A lot of people are going to go broke as well because they banned opium production, which was Afghanistan's biggest cash crop. So things are already very bad there. 

But failing to properly react to a major natural disaster could push things over the edge. People will tolerate a lot from a government but they won't stand for it when they fail to react well to a disaster. Just ask George Bush, who's response to Hurricane Katrina, was largely viewed as a failure (unfairly in my mind) and was a reason why Barack Obama was elected in 2008. Obviously there aren't going to be any elections in Afghanistan anytime soon, but it could lead to a revolution against the Taliban. 

Either way, this was a major natural disaster and I think it will get worse before it gets better. I also don't expect Afghanistan to get much help, they have burned their bridges with just about everyone. It's going to be a rough time for anyone living in the country. 

Mosque in Kabul targeted in ISIS suicide bombing leaving 50 dead.

 

File photo of Khalifa Sahib Mosque. The Daily Mail.

A mosque in Kabul was targeted by an ISIS suicide bomber leaving 50 people dead. Reuters/The Daily Mail. The exact numbers are unclear but many more may have been injured in the attack and the death toll could grow, with one source claiming as many as 200 deaths. The Zikr prayers that were being performed in the mosque are considered heretical by hardline Sunni groups like ISIS. The attack happened on the last Friday of Ramadan, Islam's holy month and a common time for terror attacks. ISIS has made a resurgence in Afghanistan after the Taliban took over, with today's attack being one in a series of attacks mostly targeting mosques. 

My Comment:

I apologize for using the Daily Fail as a source here but to be fair, it's not like I had many options. Reuters appears to be the only wire service picking this story up and I'm out of free articles from them this month. The only other news outlet I found reporting on this was The Guardian and their article wasn't as good as The Daily Mail's. I honestly think the reporting is fine at The Daily Mail, it's just the sidebar links are so distasteful. 

I am not surprised that the media is mostly ignoring ISIS's resurgence in Afghanistan. It brings up the uncomfortable fact that Joe Biden totally screwed up Afghanistan. They would prefer the country remain out of the news for the foreseeable future lest people remember that when Trump left office the Taliban hadn't taken over and ISIS was mostly destroyed. 

But I get the feeling that Afghanistan is going to be in the news more often now. The Taliban's hold on the country is fragile and ISIS is running amok at the moment. It's also now fighting season in Afghanistan so if a civil war were to break out now would be the time. ISIS is clearly gearing up their terror attacks with this major bombing just being the most severe and most recent. It's hardly the only one though as several other mosques have been bombed as well. 

I am not sure what the actual problem with the Zikr prayers are. ISIS has a problem with it but from what I understand it's a Sunni Islam practice. ISIS usually targets Shiite Muslims but also regularly target Sunni ones that they disagree with and I guess that's reasoning enough for them. It doesn't make much sense to me though. 

ISIS has also started to attack Pakistan as well and I worry that they might used the failed state of Afghanistan to continue to do so. The Taliban's hold on the country is not strong in all places and they might be too busy just trying to survive to deal with ISIS. 

The other problem for the Taliban is that their opponent is fairly evenly matched. It was US airpower and fire support that helped the former Afghan government get ISIS under control. The Taliban will not have that this time around and it will essentially be light infantry vs light infantry, which neither side will have that much of an advantage. The Taliban do have a major artillery advantage and captured a lot of US gear but even then it's not going to be a curbstomp when the two sides finally do engage in warfare. 

As for ISIS I do fear a resurgence from them. Many of their enemies are distracted right now. Russia is obviously bogged down in Ukraine while all of Europe watches on. The United States is just plain out to lunch with a President that probably doesn't even remember his own name half the time, let alone knows what to do about ISIS. 

The good news is that Afghanistan is isolated enough that even if ISIS were to take over much of the country it would only be a long term threat, not a short term one. There isn't much infrastructure left to capture there and that is what is needed for ISIS to launch major international attacks like they were doing between 2013 and 2016. Without wealth ISIS will remain on the backburner. 

The Taliban have banned poppy production.

 

Afghans harvest poppy plants. ABC News/AP.

The Taliban have banned harvest of poppies in Afghanistan. ABC News. The Taliban have told farmers that they will burn their poppy crops and that they would be arrested if they continued the harvest. The move will be a massive blow to the Afghanistan economy, which has already collapsed in the wake of the Taliban taking over the country. 7% of Afghanistan's GDP in 2021 was due to poppy cultivation.  Afghanistan is the largest producer of poppy in the world. The Taliban had banned opium production in the 1990's but after the US invasion, poppy production exploded. It is unclear how the Taliban will provide for the farmers that produce poppies. 

My Comment:

Well, the Taliban appear to be doing something that the United States could not do in 20 years of warfare. We spent millions of dollars in trying to stop the Afghans from growing poppies and it didn't work. The Afghans never stopped doing it regardless, there was too much money to be made. 

Of course, it's always possible that the Taliban will not be able to totally stop poppy production in the first place. Though they did have success back in the day but there is a ton of money to be made so it's possible some of the opium trade will continue. That being said, I think the Taliban will be willing to kill people if they grow poppies, which probably will be a huge incentive to stop growing it. 

The problem is that the economic damage is going to be pretty terrible. A lot of people are going to lose a ton of money and might even starve to death. What else can they do when their harvest has been burnt? They can of course plant new crops, but how can they afford seeds if their current crops are burnt to the ground? 

This could have consequences for the Taliban. People have been resistant to fighting back against the Taliban because they still had something to lose. But now these poppy farmers no longer have anything to lose. If they are going to starve anyways, why not rebel? 

What the Taliban has to do now is find some way to take care of these farmers. But how can they do so? They have limited funds to work with and it's not like there is any international aid or trade coming in. They can probably do something but will it be enough? I'm not sure. 

I don't think the Taliban had too much in the way of a choice here though. Their religion says that drug use is forbidden so it makes sense that they would ban it. If not they would be huge hypocrites. You would think there would be an exception in this case but apparently not... 

United States condemns the Taliban for use of summary executions.

 

File photo of Taliban fighters. NBC News/AP.

The United States and the European Union has condemned the Taliban for their use of summary executions. NBC News. Human Rights Watch, a human rights NGO, said that the Taliban had either killed or disappeared 47 former military members. The Taliban had announced a blanket amnesty for past members of the former Afghan government. They also said that they had punished members of their government who had engaged in extrajudicial killings. The Taliban has tried to portray themselves as more moderate than their previous incarnation but they have faced accusations of killings and intolerance. The Taliban has also faced major problems with economy and food production. 

My Comment:

This is another consequence of Joe Biden's incompetent pull out from Afghanistan. All of this could have been prevented if we had evacuated the former members of the government and military. Instead we didn't and instead evacuated people that just happened to show up at the airport, leaving thousands of people left behind. Not to mention that most of those people were not vetted and it's likely that Taliban, al-Qaeda and ISIS fighters made their way to America that way.

Of course there is an argument that we should not have taken these people in regardless. After all, it was primarily these people that failed against the Taliban. If it hadn't been for the corruption of the government and the failure of the military the Afghan government might still be standing. But that argument is pretty moot at this point as people were evacuated. 

Honestly though, the scale of killings seems to be extremely minor. Only 47 people getting killed/abducted is not a major problem. And that's if you believe Human Rights Watch's numbers. I generally don't trust human rights groups as they have motivation to lie about such things. It's possible that the true number is either higher or lower than the quoted numbers, but I do think some of the killings probably did happen. 

The question is if they were ordered to happen by the government or if it was just the rank and file people that did this. I think it's possible that this was just rouge Taliban settling the score. Why? Just because of the small number of people killed. If the Taliban was going to murder everyone their would be a lot more deaths. 

As for the international community condemning this, don't make me laugh. Nobody outside of the United States has the power to do anything about this so it's just a bunch of noise from them. And the United States? We finally ended the war in Afghanistan. We aren't going to go back because the Taliban killed a few people. 

Could ISIS in Afghanistan gain the ability to strike the United States in six months?

 

Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl. The Guardian/Shutterstock. 

The US defense community warns that ISIS and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan could be able to strike the United States in as little in six months. The Guardian. They said that neither al-Qaeda or the Afghan branch of ISIS have the ability to launch attacks now but could gain that ability in six to twelve months. ISIS has been very active in Afghanistan since the US pullout, launching several major attacks against the Taliban and their Shiite subjects. Though the two groups are at war it is unclear if the Taliban can do much to stop ISIS. ISIS may have as many as 1000 fighters in Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda poses a different risk given their close ties to the Taliban, but the defense community believes it would take much longer, two to three years, before they would be capable of attacking the United States. 

My Comment:

I have mixed feelings about this. I always take proclamations from the Defense Department with a major grain of salt. They have a motivation to lie about the threat caused by ISIS and al-Qaeda as they get funding based on that threat. That doesn't mean they are always wrong, mind you, but it is something to keep in mind. 

Plus, I don't think ISIS is an immediate threat. The reason core ISIS was such a threat back in the day was because they had a major tax base, control over a huge amount of territory, thousands of willing recruits and open borders to get fighters into attack other countries. None of those things are true for ISIS in Afghanistan and I don't see it changing in the short term or even the long term. 

ISIS has also totally changed tactics in Afghanistan. They seem to have given up on taking and holding territory and are now acting more like a traditional terror group. They have gone underground and try to avoid pitched battles with the Taliban. Though it would seem morphing into a traditional terror group would give ISIS more opportunities but they are giving up on the taxes and looting that would pay for those attacks. 

I also don't see how ISIS would get out of Afghanistan. They are surrounded by hostile powers and America has the ocean to prevent infiltration. Europe might be under more of a threat but even then I don't see how they would do it. They just don't have the logistics to accomplish it. 

The big threat from ISIS is the thousands of Afghans that were evacuated to the United States during the pullout. None of these people were vetted and it's very possible that a few of them were ISIS fighters. And even if none of them were they are a base from which to recruit from. If an attack comes it will be from there. 

Al-Qaeda is another situation entirely. Unlike ISIS they have the support of the Taliban and they have used Afghanistan as a base before. I am sure they want to attack the United States. The big problem they have is that al-Qaeda has been almost totally destroyed. They get few recruits as well and I don't see them being a threat anytime soon. But if they do manage to reform I do think they are more of a threat than ISIS, with a caveat. Unlike ISIS, al-Qaeda usually tries to go for complex, spectacular attacks that are easy to detect and get disrupted easily. If they don't change that tactic I don't see much of a threat from them. 

400 Americans still stranded in Afghanistan...

 

Press Secretary Jen Paski. Washington Free Beacon/Getty.

400 Americans are still stranded in Afghanistan, a much larger number than originally claimed by the White House. Washington Free Beacon. 363 are American citizens while 176 are US permanent residents. The State Department said that they had evacuated 218 US citizens and 131 permanent residents during the evacuation in August. The source for the number of American citizens comes from congressional staffers and was confirmed by Representative Darrell Issa.  The United States has established communications with the Taliban but it is unclear if the citizens will be evacuated soon. 

My Comment:

There are a few inconsistencies with this story. Other sources say that the 176 permanent residents are just the number of people that want to leave, not a separate class. That was from CNN so I automatically don't trust it, but it's very possible that the error is on the Washington Free Beacon. 

Second the source of this story was anonymous in both cases so as usual, there is the disclaimer that anonymous sources are often wrong. Though a Congressman did confirm the story I wouldn't be surprised if some of the details are wrong. 

Still, it's amazing to me that we left so many people behind in Afghanistan. Our evacuation there was an utter disaster. Instead of getting our people out or the people that helped us in our 20 year war with the Taliban, we kind of just took whoever was there. A lot of these people were not vetted and we have no idea who they are. It's very possible that some of them were Taliban, al-Qaeda or even ISIS members. 

Keep in mind that these numbers don't count the number of translators and other green card holders left behind. These people aren't counted in the official statistics and were left behind just like these US citizens. 

I don't believe that much if anything is being done to get these people out. Some of them probably want to remain for their own reasons but the rest are stuck there against their will. The Taliban seems to have bigger problems and are not interested in tracking down these people and sending them home. And even if they were the ways out of Afghanistan are limited. 

The Biden White House, such as it is, has other problems as well. Biden himself seems to be totally out to lunch and have very little interest in foreign policy. Indeed, I expect them to totally ignore this story as nobody in the media is likely to question people on it. Biden, or more accurately, his staff, is focused on the Coronavirus, the economy and various elections. They have little incentive to actually try and get these people out... 

Another major terror attack in Afghanistan kills 33 people at a mosque.

 

People survey the damage. Reuters/Getty. 

Another major terror attack has occurred in Afghanistan with a bombing killing 33 people and wounding 73 more. Reuters. The attack comes on the heels of another major terror attack. This one too targeted a Shiite Mosque, this time in Kandahar. A local reporter said that the mosque was hit by three suicide bombers. One of them targeted the entrance of the mosque while two more bombers blew up inside. It is unclear what terror group was responsible for the attack but ISIS is the most likely suspect. ISIS has long targeted Shiite Muslims while the Taliban is also a group of Sunni extremists, but they have vowed to protect minorities in Afghanistan. 

My Comment:

I covered the previous ISIS terror attack in Afghanistan here. It seems pretty clear that the end of US involvement in Afghanistan was not the end of the war. It appears that ISIS is stepping up their major terrorist campaign in Afghanistan. This was a brutal attack and the casualty rate might not be final. 

And it doesn't seem like the Taliban are up to the task of defeating ISIS. ISIS has gone underground and right now what is needed is not military action but good old fashioned police work. If ISIS was still acting like an army, taking and holding territory, it would be a simple thing for the Taliban to launch an attack on them. But if they are underground? It's a lot more difficult. 

I don't have much doubt that this was an ISIS attack. I don't see who else could be responsible. Al-Qaeda is a suspect but they are a shadow of their old selves and are allies with the Taliban. I don't see them pulling off this attack. And I'm not really aware of any other major terror groups operating in Afghanistan. 

As for ISIS this probably will be a major recruiting opportunity for them. Right now ISIS in Afghanistan is one of the few groups launching major attacks. They are pretty much the only game in town and I have already heard of some militants from Syria and Iraq going to Afghanistan to fight. 

What should the United States do about these attacks? Not a thing. We should be serious about ending the war in Afghanistan. This is the Taliban's problem, not ours and if they can't deal with it so be it. Perhaps if they fail so bad that ISIS goes back to taking over territory we can have a discussion about launching air strikes. But under no circumstances should we send troops back. 

The United States will provide humanitarian aid to the Taliban.

 

Taliban fighters. The Hill/Getty.

After a diplomatic meeting with the Taliban the United States has decided to give humanitarian aid but not recognition of the Taliban. The Hill. The talks took place in Doha and were the first face to face meeting since the fall of the Afghan government. The United States agreed to provide humanitarian aid in order to facilitate the evacuation of foreign nationals. The Taliban also agreed to prevent terrorism from taking hold in Afghanistan, which may be a major problem for them considering the massive bombing they had on Friday. 

My Comment:

What a joke. We have zero reason to help the Taliban do anything, let alone give them aid. They have been America's enemy for 20 years now and just like that we forget every terrible thing they did to our soldiers? It's disgusting. 

Honestly, I would have been less angry if they had did the exact opposite of what they did. Recognize the Taliban as the government of Afghanistan but not send them a single cent of aid. It's pretty obvious that the Taliban are in control of Afghanistan, recognizing them is just acknowledging reality. And we probably could have gotten the same things we got with this agreement. 

The fact that there are still foreign nationals left in Afghanistan shows how badly the evacuation failed. Most of the evacuees were just people who wanted out, not vulnerable former government officials or citizens of foreign countries. We left a lot of people behind and it's a minor miracle that the Taliban haven't killed them at all. The fact that we needed to make an agreement about this is a joke.

And the Taliban agreeing to stop terrorism? Fine, but I doubt they can actually do it. The former Afghan government wasn't able to deal with ISIS even with American support and intelligence. The Taliban won't have that and they are already showing that they aren't capable of stopping ISIS now that they have gone underground. I don't think ISIS will take over Afghanistan or anything but I also don't think the Taliban's promise is worth much here. 

Even worse they are agreed about ISIS but what about al-Qaeda? I know al-Qaeda has been mostly destroyed but they have been allied with Afghanistan since before 9/11. Indeed, there isn't too much difference between the two groups. I doubt that the Taliban would actually move against al-Qaeda given their strong links. 

Is there a need for humanitarian aid? Of course! The Taliban are failing in running the country and simple things like health care and power are failing. And that's assuming that they can even feed their people. But that does not mean that we should give them anything. And considering they took over our huge stores of weapons and supplies, I say we have already helped them enough...  

Suicide bomber kills and wounds more than 100 people in mosque bombing in Afghanistan.

 

People gather near the scene of the bombing. UPI/EPA.

A suicide bomber killed and wounded more than 100 people at a mosque in Afghanistan, raising questions about the Taliban's control of the country. UPI. The attack occurred in Kunduz during prayers and was targeting Shiite Muslims. It is unclear if the death total is correct or if it also includes the wounded. ISIS took credit for the attack

Al-Jazeera claims that 72 people died in the attack while 140 were wounded, though those numbers may increase. Causalities may have increased due to slow response time from the Taliban, with ambulances taking 40 minutes to arrive. Most of the victims were young people. ISIS took credit for the attack and have been hard for the Taliban to track down as they now operate less like an army and more like a traditional terror group. 

My Comment:

This attack happened on Friday but I did not have a chance to write about it until now. Given the immense casualties and deaths and the significance of the attack I figured it was more important to cover the attack instead of another "Joe Biden is terrible" post. 

ISIS's Afghanistan affiliate has taken credit for the attack. That they were the perpetrators was pretty obvious from the start. ISIS has long been an enemy of Shiite Muslims, since they are Sunni extremists. The terror group has often targeted Shiite Muslims and bombing their mosques is a favored technique. This is far from the first of these kinds of attacks and I doubt it will be the last. 

The bigger aspect of this story is how incompetent the Taliban have been since taking over the country. They have not been able to stamp out ISIS and they have carried out several attacks since they began taking control of the country. And the response time to this attack was abysmal. It should not take 40 minutes for ambulances to arrive and I am guessing the poor health care in Afghanistan is a reason why so many people died from this attack. 

And it does seem like ISIS is no longer an army in Afghanistan and is instead acting more like a traditional terror group. This is bad news for the Taliban as if ISIS was still taking and holding territory it would be a much simpler thing to snuff them out. If they are operating in smaller cells, military force is less effective and you have to move to police methods. Given how poorly the Taliban seem to be running the country right now I doubt they will have the resources and experience necessary to hunt these terrorists down. 

Thankfully, I don't think this is anything other than a regional problem, for the moment. It's not our problem anymore since we have pulled out of Afghanistan. I know the Biden administration says they will launch strikes against ISIS if they get the opportunity but given how ISIS is acting now I doubt they will get that opportunity. They are going to stay underground and continue to launch attacks like this. 

I do fear that if ISIS starts to have more successful attacks like this they could end up rallying people to their cause. Though I don't think there is too much of a risk of them taking and holding territory anymore anything is possible and there is still a huge population of angry young Muslim men that would like to join up with ISIS. If the Taliban can't do anything against them it's possible they could become a larger threat again... 

GOP lawmakers demand release of Lt. Col. Stuart Scheller, a Marine officer that criticized the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

 

Lt. Col. Stuart Scheller. US Marine photo.

Several Republican lawmakers have demanded the release of Lt. Col. Stuart Scheller, a Marine officer that criticized the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and is now in the brig. Washington Examiner. Scheller was extremely critical of the withdrawal and posted a video on Facebook demanding accountability from military leadership. The lawmakers say that Scheller is being held for political reasons and not due to his actions. Scheller's hearing has not been scheduled and he faces four possible charges, including contempt to officials, disobeying a superior, failure to obey a lawful order and conduct unbecoming. 

My Comment:

The double standard here is ridiculous. Military figures, up to and including General Mark Milley, leaked, lied and betrayed their uniform regularly and none of them ever got punished for it. Why? Because they were opposed to President Trump. But as soon as an officer does the same thing to Biden and his staff it's suddenly beyond the pale. 

I do think that Scheller is probably guilty of some of the charges. He knew he was torpedoing his career and could face military justice for his videos but he didn't care and did it anyways. Under normal circumstances I would say he deserves to be punished. But these are not normal circumstances and it's clear that Scheller is only being punished because he criticized the wrong administration. 

And it's clear the reason Scheller is being punished is because the military and civilian leadership massively screwed up the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Nobody has been punished for losing the country. Nobody has been punished for the major terror attack that killed Americans and civilians alike. Nobody has been punished for blowing up an innocent aid worker and his family. And nobody has been punished for an evacuating so disorganized and disgusting that hundreds of unvetted people made it into America while hundreds of American citizens were left behind. And nobody has been punished for having Afghan civilians falling from our planes. 

There is nothing more the government hates than being embarrassed and Scheller's words hugely embarrassed them. The Biden administration can hardly admit that they failed during the withdrawal from Afghanistan. I am sure Biden and the Democrats are depending on voters short memories to have any chance in the 2022 midterms at all. By silencing Scheller and throwing the book at him they hope to bury the story and possibly try and right the tailspin that the Biden administration is in. 

It won't work of course. The Republicans smell blood in the water and know that they can use this situation to their advantage. They could even recruit Scheller as a possible candidate, the man is a good speaker and has a future outside of the military. I don't think they are going to let this go and I do think there is a large amount of outrage over this incident. 

Taliban warns the United States to stop flying drones over Afghanistan...

Taliban fighters with a captured Humvee. The Hill/Getty.

The Taliban have warned the United States to stop flying drones over Afghanistan. The Hill. The Taliban claim that the Doha agreement they made with President Trump last year prevents the use of drones over Afghanistan. They are also saying that the drone flights violate international law. The United States withdrew from Afghanistan this August under extreme circumstances. The US government has said that they will launch strikes against ISIS and al-Qaeda without Taliban approval. 

My Comment:

Just a follow up to yesterday's post. It does seem clear now that the Taliban will try and stop operations against ISIS and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. What I wasn't expecting was how they were going to do so. It appears that the Taliban will be using political pressure against the United States instead. 

This will, of course, not work. The United States usually does whatever it wants and that tendency has increased under Joe Biden. They are not going to stop these flights and won't give the Taliban a heads up when a strike happens. It's clear that they will do what they want when they want in Afghanistan. 

I don't know that the Taliban has much other option though. I don't think they have much in the way of an anti-aircraft capability. They may have some ancient anti-air guns but I don't see them having much in the way of surface to air missiles that would be the main threat to our drones and planes. 

I do wonder if they might try and use their small fleet of captured A-29 Super Tucanos. Though the planes were obviously designed for an air to ground role, I bet they could be used to intercept lower flying drones. The problem is having trained pilots and I doubt the Taliban has too many of these. If they are lucky they had a few left over from the Afghan government that they recruited. Arming and maintaining these planes are a problem as well. Of course the problem with using these prop planes to try and shoot down drones is that they would be extremely vulnerable to US air power. 

I do have to say that it seems pretty clear that the war in Afghanistan is anything but over. The Pentagon is openly talking about how they are going to bomb targets when it is convenient to them. And now it's clear that there won't be any normal relations with the Taliban. I think it's only a matter of time before we end up launching airstrikes there again. 

 

Pentagon says they will not ask the Taliban for permission to launch strikes in Afghanistan against ISIS or al-Qaeda

 

A Taliban fighter in Afghanistan. Newsweek/AFP.

The Pentagon has announced that they will not ask the Taliban for permission to launch strikes in Afghanistan against ISIS or al-Qaeda. Newsweek. The US pulled out of Afghanistan this August but has said they will continue to target ISIS and al-Qaeda fighters. This is counter to the policy in many countries where these terror groups operate, usually the US military gets permission to strike first. It is unclear if the Taliban would allow these strikes but planes flying over Afghanistan have permission to use more defensive measures to defend against Taliban anti-air fire. Pentagon officials fear that Afghanistan will become a new base for terror groups. 

My Comment:

I guess US involvement in the war in Afghanistan isn't actually over. It sounds as though the Pentagon is actively planning airstrikes against al-Qaeda and ISIS. That isn't surprising, I never thought that Joe Biden actually wanted to wash his hands of Afghanistan. We won't ever get out of there. 

As for the Taliban I expect them to be very upset with this. I do think that they would be perfectly fine with the United States bombing ISIS. They are mortal enemies after all. Bombing the hell out of them would help prevent a continuation of the war between ISIS and the Taliban. And ISIS is still launching attacks against the Taliban, including suicide bombings. Remember, though 13 Americans died in the bombing during the evacuation, dozens of Taliban fighters died as well. 

ISIS won't be the sticking point though. It will be al-Qaeda, or what is left of it. Al-Qaeda is of course a shadow of their former selves and the core groups is mostly extinct. They mostly exist through their affiliates. Regardless though, al-Qaeda and the Taliban are allies. They fight together and they are not enemies like the Taliban and ISIS are. If we start bombing al-Qaeda we will be bombing the Taliban as well. 

I do think that there is a chance that al-Qaeda could use Afghanistan as a base to launch further attacks. Given how destroyed al-Qaeda is it would take a long time for them to regroup but with a safe haven they could do it. With the Taliban giving them cover I think the only way we could stop that from happening is by bombing them. But it will probably take them years, if not decades. 

What can the Taliban do to prevent these kinds of strikes? It's unclear. I assume that the Afghan government had some rudimentary anti-air capabilities but I don't think they are much of a threat after the Taliban captured them. In the end I don't think they can do much of anything to shoot down a US aircraft. 

The US will be sending $64 million in aid to Afghanistan...

 

The Hill/Getty.

The United States is sending $64 million in aid to Afghanistan. The Hill. The UN had called for $600 million in aid to prevent famine and promote public health. The money is a drop in the bucket compared to the $300 million a day the government was spending on the war in Afghanistan. The aid will come even though the Biden administration has not recognized the Taliban as the government of Afghanistan. The fall of the Afghan government and withdrawal of US forces has lead to a food shortage and shortage of basic supplies, and many people are fleeing the country. 

My Comment:

I know that $64 million is a rounding error to the US government but it is insane to me that we are spending even more money in Afghanistan. The whole point of withdrawing our troops was to wash our hands of the Afghanistan problem. We no longer owe anything to the people of Afghanistan who made their choice when they decided to not fight the Taliban. 

And this money could be used anywhere else. Our own country is in shambles right now. The economy is declining fast, crime is out of control, the Coronavirus is still raging and we owe trillions of dollars in debt. Sending this money to try and fix some of these terrible problems is a much better idea than spending even more money on people that hate us. 

That isn't to say that Afghanistan isn't in trouble. Given the war and the pariah status of the Taliban government trade is going to suffer. And without trade they will have difficulty obtaining supplies and food. They could grow all of their food but most of Afghanistan's agriculture is dedicated towards the production of opium. Normally they could just sell that opium but the Taliban have banned it. 

This means that Afghanistan is rapidly running out of food. They won't have enough to feed everyone and even if they did they might be able to transport it. Plus they are having medical problems as well, especially with the Coronavirus pandemic going on. It's going to be a rough couple of years unless the Afghans get help.

But that help shouldn't come from us. The Taliban have made it clear they don't want us there and it makes no sense for use to spend good money after bad. We are no longer responsible for what happens in Afghanistan. And we should not be giving money to people that hate us.