Israel says it may attack Iran in response to an attack on an Israeli oil tanker. Bloomberg. Israeli Defense Secretary Benny Gantz was asked if a military response was possible to Iran's attack and answered with a blunt "yes". The UN security council is discussing the attack on Friday and will likely blame Iran for the drone attack. Israel has threatened Iran before, accusing them of developing nuclear weapons, but today's threats come during heightened tensions. Iran has denied the attacks and warned Israel that they would respond to any attack.
My Comment:
This is a fairly significant development that the US Media is largely ignoring. They seem to have very little function today other than pushing Coronavirus paranoia and trying to make the January 6th counter-coup a thing that people care about. A potential major war in the Middle East should be a huge story, especially considering the players are Iran and Israel, but the media has other priorities.
Indeed, the war is pretty much started already. It's been a proxy war for now, with Iran using Hezbollah to harass Israel and Mossad agents in Iran killing targets and sabotaging nuclear weapons facilities. The drone attack on the Israeli tanker is the just the latest case in a long series of attacks.
I do think that things are coming to a head. The Israelis are claiming again that the Iranians are just a few weeks away from having a nuclear weapon (they have been saying this for years though). And there have been several attacks on Israeli interests that I think they will be taking action soon.
What would a war between Israel and Iran look like? I am not sure. It's not like the armies will be able to attack each other directly as they do not share any borders. I doubt any of their neighbors would allow Iranian troops to come in as most of them hate the Shiite led Iran. Hezbollah and other Iranian militias are active in Syria so I am guessing that is where most of the fighting would occur.
Most of the war would probably involve missiles and aircraft with some naval conflict as well. I am guessing cruise missiles would be launched by each side, with Israel doing a better job of defending themselves. Israel's air force is much more capable than Iran's and would be able to get air superiority rather quickly, but fuel and range would be major problems.
The real question is if Israel will have any allies. I don't think there is any interest whatsoever for US involvement in Iran. America is war weary and want to end the current forever wars, not get involved in another one. I don't think Biden would be able to convince Americans to ever support a war against Iran.
It might not be up to us though. Biden has proven that he doesn't give a damn about what people think or what the law things. A little thing like a SCOTUS ruling didn't stop him from extending the eviction moratorium and I doubt it would stop him from entering a war with Iran. I do expect a major anti-war movement would emerge as there is no reason for us to fight Israel's war for them.
As for other allies, I expect that the UK and France would likely help Iran as well, despite the war being just as unpopular there. I do expect the Gulf States to help out despite their own rocky relationship with Israel. Iran is obviously the much bigger threat and though their people won't like it I doubt it will matter.
But the other possibility is that war doesn't happen after all and it remains a shadow conflict. That is certainly possible given the opposition to any new war and the high costs in waging it for all involved. Diplomacy could potentially prevail, though I am not sure how under the current situation.
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