Is an ISIS attack possible at Kabul Airport?

 

The flag of ISIS.

The Biden administration is citing the threat of ISIS attacks for changes in the evacuation procedures in Kabul, Afghanistan. USA Today. Evacuations were paused today due to the threat of a major terror attack from the Khorasan branch of ISIS as well as the fact that the Qatar processing center being overwhelmed. ISIS is not as powerful as it once was in Afghanistan, but it has taken advantage of the chaos to step up attacks and it is feared that they could attack Afghan civilians and US soldiers defending the airport. However, Kabul is held by the Taliban who is at war with ISIS. 

My Comment:

ISIS is not the threat it used to be in Afghanistan. The Trump administration made destroying them a priority and most of their leadership is dead. The Taliban have fought them for a long time as well and the terror group has been bled dry. They still exist but I don't know how powerful they are these days. 

But I do think that ISIS would love to hit the Kabul airport. Not so much to target the civilians there, though they would consider them to all be enemies, but to draw blood from American soldiers. Doing so would be a propaganda coup for ISIS and could lead to a major wave of recruitment. 

Can they do it? Well, it would probably be difficult. The Taliban are swarming all over Kabul and there are limited chances for them to actually pull off an attack. They would have to get through Taliban checkpoints to even get into the city, let alone get close to the airport. They might be able to pose as Taliban fighters but even that is a stretch. 

But if they somehow do get access to the airport, what happens then? I think there is a chance that they could try and shoot people but if that happens I see them getting ventilated pretty quickly. Of more concern is a major terrorist bombing using a suicide vest or IED. That could kill several US soldiers and possibly even end the evacuation. 

This would be a huge embarrassment for the Biden administration, who is already suffering from a massive credibility problem. A major terror attack in Kabul would ruin his reputation, whatever shreds of it are left, and would likely end his presidency. He's hanging by a thread anyways. 

Which is why the Biden administration is taking the threat seriously, even if the actual chance is pretty unlikely. They are also using it as an excuse though. The evacuation has been a disaster and any delay at this point is due to poor planning.