Biden moves up withdrawal from Afghanistan to August 31.

 

A scene from Afghanistan. BBC/Getty.

Joe Biden has announced that the planned withdrawal from Afghanistan will be pushed up from September 11th to August 31st. BBC. President Trump had made an agreement with the Taliban to pull out in May but Biden reversed that decision. Biden argued that the Taliban offensive that has taken much of the country is not a threat. He cites the fact that Afghanistan has a 350,000 man strong army while the Taliban only has 75,000 troops. Roughly 1000 troops will remain in Afghanistan to defend the embassy in Kabul, along with other sites in the capitol city. Biden also said that he would allow translators and others that worked with the United States to get visas to leave Afghanistan. 

My Comment:

This isn't a huge difference in the timetable but it is a welcome one. We have been in Afghanistan for 20 years and have accomplished very little. Nobody wants to keep troops in the country anymore and the sooner we are out the better.

With that being said, I don't believe for a second that Afghanistan can stand against the Taliban. The military is falling apart and morale has collapsed. Various units have either been destroyed or fled the country. And despite the Afghan military's advantage in troops and weapons they have been getting destroyed on the battlefield. 

Indeed, I don't know that the Afghans will be able to hold out until August 31st. The news has been terrible for the Afghan government and the Taliban have taken a lot of territory. They may still have an advantage in the number of troops but that advantage will not hold for long given the damage that is being done to the military.

I do think that this puts our troops that will remain to protect the embassy and the airport in Kabul at risk. I fear a repeat of the fall of Saigon where the troops barely get out in time. And even if they don't have to deal with that it will be an embarrassing scene if Kabul falls and we have to pull our people out of the embassy. 

As for taking in our interpreters I am not a huge fan of it. I know these people have helped us a great deal but I fear a few jihadists will sneak in with these people. I have seen this happen before and it is a major threat. I'd rather send them to a safe third country then send them to America. But in the end I do think we owe them something. 

I do know that there are peace efforts going on, but I don't know how they will turn out. I can't see the Taliban wanting to deal with the United States after we went back on our original deal. Biden has proven himself untrustworthy for the Taliban and they have little reason to cooperate with him. Plus, they have little reason to back down now, they appear to be winning the war. 

However, a negotiated settlement is probably the only way the Afghan government survives. It's possible that they may resort to a federal solution where the Taliban retains control of much of the country. Either that or the country gets split in two. But even that seems unlikely.