1000 Afghan troops flee the country into Tajikistan as the Taliban advance continues.

 

A solider on guard in Kabul, Afghanistan. BBC. 

1000 Afghan troops have fled the country into Tajikistan as the Taliban continue their advance through the country. BBC. Tajikistan border guards said the troops were fleeing to "save their own lives". The Taliban have been making quick gains in the country, especially in the north. This happens as the United States and NATO allies are leaving. The border crossing is the 5th in two weeks with more than 1600 Afghan troops crossing into Tajikistan. It is unclear what Tajikistan will do with the soldiers but they have said the soldiers have been provided with food and shelter. Morale among Afghan troops has plummeted due to bad news on the front lines, cowardly government officials and the lack of foreign support. 

My Comment:

Once again, I wonder if the Afghan Army will hold out long enough for US troops to pull out entirely. They are saying that troops will be out of the country before the 9/11 deadline but even then the collapse of the Afghan Army has been shocking. The Taliban now controls 1/3rd of the country and that number is growing every day. 

It seems these troops had little choice in the matter. They were cut off from supplies and reinforcement and had no chance of getting US support. Their options appeared to be either to surrender, fight to the death, or cross over the border with an uncertain fate awaiting them in Tajikistan. Fleeing might have been appropriate but it is never a good option. Given that an elite special forces unit was wiped out after deciding to make a last stand, there is a strong argument against it. 

It's unclear what Tajikistan will do with these troops. For now all we know is that they have been given food and shelter. I doubt that Tajikistan will want these people long term though and it's very possible they will send these people back to Afghanistan. 

What happens then depends on who is still in control of the country by then. If its the Afghan government then I would think that they would have to let bygones be bygones so they could send these troops back into the fight. The Afghan Army has been taking unsustainable casualties for years now and face a major manpower shortage. They need all the troops they can get even if the troops are the kind that don't make a last stand. 

But what happens if the Taliban take over, which they seem very likely to do at this point? It's unclear. The Taliban seem to be less extreme this time around and may pardon these troops if they come home. They may even press them into their own military, which would still face threats from ISIS and possible Afghan government loyalists. It's possible that Tajikistan would allow them to stay under these circumstances though. 

With all that being said though, there is very little the United States could do to prevent the Afghan government from falling, short of a huge influx of US troops. There is zero desire for that and I think the prevailing opinion is that the Afghan government has to stand on its own. We have been there for 20 years trying to prop up a civilian government and it has failed miserably. There is no reason to continue to spend good money after bad. 

Still, I don't think it had to end this way. The deal President Trump made with the Taliban was holding until Biden destroyed it. If it had worked out the Afghan government would have at least had a few more months or even years to prepare themselves for the conflict. It could have also even avoided it entirely. But that's not the world we live in and I doubt that the Afghan government will be around much longer.