Major fighting breaks out in Syria as the regime targets Deraa Province

 

Protesters in Deraa Province. The Guardian/Reuters.

Major fighting has broken out in Syria as the regime tries to take back Deraa Province. The Guardian. Bashar al-Assad launched the attack using heavy weapons including artillery and missiles and ordered two Syrian divisions, along with Iranian militia allies, to attack the province. Rebels counter attacked, killing at least 8 Syrians and capturing more. Deraa was where the Syrian Civil War started but in recent months an uneasy peace reigned, brokered by the Russians. The Russians recruited many of the rebels into a militia called the Fifth Corp, who the Russians pay directly. The Fifth Corp has stayed out of the fighting. The peace fell apart due to Deraa Province not participating in the May election, which lead to tit-for-tat attacks and pressure being applied to the Deraa province. The Fifth Corp and the Russians may have to broker a peace deal.

My Comment:

Just another quick post about the Syrian Civil War. The war has obviously taken a backseat to just about every other news story but it is still going on. There has been a cease fire and a peace deal but there are a few pockets of fighting left and now we have another one. 

I don't think the rebels in Deraa Province can win here. They are facing two divisions of troops along with Iranian militias. Most of there fighters are no longer with them as they have joined the Russian backed Fifth Corp. I don't see how the fighters could possibly prevail on their own. 

But there is a major x-factor here and it's Israel. I don't think Israel cares all that much one way or another who controls the Deraa Province but they are going to be very suspicious of the Iranian militias helping out the Syrian Army. Indeed, I could see them launching air strikes to destroy these militias for their own good. They don't want the Iranians to have a base right on their northern border and they will likely do whatever they can to stop that from happening. Will that be enough to save the rebels in Deraa Province? Time will tell. 

The other x-factor is of course Russia. I am thinking they were happy with the status quo and would like things to go back to normal. They might want to pressure both the rebels and the Syrian government so this offensive gets called off. Sending these people to Idlib with the rest the former rebels might be a possible solution.

Either way, I would rather have the Syrian government fighting the remaining jihadists in ISIS and whatever al-Nusra are remaining in the country. Gaining back the province doesn't really help that much and could even spark a conflict with Israel. Time will tell if Syria's gamble here pays off.