As you are probably aware, 270towin has a resource map that allows users to put their own predictions for the 2020 election. I have used the tool in the past to predict the 2016 election, which you can find here. In 2016 I didn't make a firm prediction but I did show that Trump only really needed to take Michigan to win, which turned out to be true. I did get my home state wrong.
The 270towin consensus has Biden in a comfortable lead. I think this is misguided at best and absolutely delusional at best. This election is at worst close and at best a blowout for President Trump. Here's my map of the best case scenario for the Biden campaign.
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.comAs you can see, I don't think many of the so called toss up states are anything but. I don't think there is any chance that Biden picks up Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, or the urban district in Nebraska. Florida seems very safe for President Trump given how huge his rallies are and how much support he has among the Cuban and Venezuelan populations compared to Joe Biden, Biden's only campaigning there as winning it would probably win him the election, not because it is likely. Ohio isn't a swing state and I just don't see Biden flipping Iowa and the urban district in Nebraska. The only possible flip in this group is Arizona but given Joe Biden had an event there with Cindy McCain that almost nobody showed up to, I can't see him winning there. If I am wrong about any of these states it's probably Arizona.
As you can see Biden would have to pick up all three of the Midwest states that Trump flipped in 2016, Wisconsin, Michigan AND Pennsylvania, and President Trump could not flip any of Clinton's old states. This doesn't seem likely to me but I think it's the only real path that Biden has. If the polling is even somewhat accurate in the three midwest states he might win.
The above map shows the states that I believe are in play in grey. These are states that President Trump either won, lost by a small margin or has spent time in recently. All President Trump needs to win is to take one of the Midwest states or both Nevada and New Hampshire and he has the election wrapped up.
Of these I think Minnesota is the most likely to flip. Trump barely lost there and that was before riots destroyed Minneapolis. Plus many of the non-urban areas have been moving red lately. I also think it is very likely that President Trump keeps Wisconsin since I live here and everything I have seen makes it look like President Trump is winning here. Though not scientific I have seen far more Trump signs then Biden once and I know a few voters who either didn't vote in 2016 or voted for Clinton/Third Party that are voting for President Trump this year.
As for the rest, I am not sure. Pennsylvania seems like Trump country with heavy rural support and the Amish backing him, but I worry about voter fraud in the big cities. Michigan should stay red but I don't trust their horrible governor and the fact that Detroit was largely spared the violence seen in the other midwestern states make me think that this is the most likely state for Biden to flip. As for Nevada and New Hampshire, I don't have enough information. Given that Nevada has been a major campaign stop for both campaigns and New Hampshire hasn't been, I think Nevada is the only one that's really in play.
I think that this is the most likely outcome of the 2020 race. As you can see, I think Trump wins with the electoral college with a decent margin. This doesn't rule out President Trump losing the popular vote but it does mean that I think Trump's the most likely winner in 2020.
So what is the best case scenario for Trump? Obviously, he keeps all three midwestern states and adds New Hampshire and Nevada as well. Perhaps even New Mexico too, which doesn't feel like a swing state to me but could potentially flip. I know there are some rumblings that Trump could flip even dark blue states like Oregon, New Jersey and New York, but that seems like wishful thinking to me. Here is the best case scenario map.
So why do I think this way when the polling says that Joe Biden has a double digit lead? Quite frankly, I think the polling is garbage. Most of the polling is focused on the general population instead of likely voters and they massively oversample Democrats. They are acting as if the Obama turnout in 2008 is the baseline even after the 2016 race showed that wasn't the case anymore. And the polling focuses on national numbers when winning and losing is completely based on electoral college.
I also think that the shy Trump factor is a lot larger this year. With roving gangs of Antifa vandalizing, attacking or even murdering people who support President Trump in public it's little surprise that people aren't telling pollsters the truth. This is even worse than it was in 2016 as the shrillness of the media and the level of political violence has increased violently.
This is also a major factor for minorities. We have seen a shift in polling among Blacks and Hispanics to where they have a higher approval rate then they did in 2016. President Trump has also made a major push for black voters and I think it is having some impact. Not to mention that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have been totally tone deaf on racial issues and act like they are owed votes from both groups. My guess is that President Trump gets between 10 and 15% of black voters and around 40% of Hispanics.
And I don't think pushing vote by mail is the coup that the Democrats think it is. I think a lot of voters are going to request a ballot and then not vote and the ones that did might have their ballots rejected. During the Democratic primaries as many as 10% of ballots were thrown out, which could cause a massive shift in the results. And in many states the vote by mail numbers are pretty closely divided between Republicans and Democrats...
I also think that voter enthusiasm is out of control for President Trump. His supporters love him and are turning out in huge numbers to his events, even despite the danger from the pandemic and the threat of Antifa rioters. Indeed, Joe Biden events often have more Trump supporters heckling him then actual supporters. And I still remember the primaries where Trump got more votes in the primaries then any incumbent ever in a primary race that was essentially meaningless. There is also a gap in voter registrations with many states reporting major gains for Republicans.
Of course we are still three weeks away from the election and a lot could change. We already had the biggest October surprise in memory with the President coming down with Coronavirus, but given how screwed up 2020 is, I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't another one coming down the pipeline that nobody, not even the respective campaigns, predicted or accounted for. Plus their might be a few votes changed after the Amy Coney Barrett hearings. Since that is the case I will likely do an updated map post just prior to the election.
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