Politico admits that President Trump may be unexpectedly strong and could win in 2020. Politico. Though polling shows Joe Biden in the lead, many other factors could lead to a Trump victory. Turnout is an active question and there are fears from Democrats that the early lead in mail in ballots will not hold due to most Republicans not trusting mail in ballots. And there is also fear that many mail in ballots will be rejected due to people filling them out incorrectly. Trump also saw a major increase in registration for Republicans and among demographics most likely to support him. Biden also made a major error in not activating get out the vote operations until this month due to fear of Coronavirus, while Trump was working hard the entire time. Politico also admits that the polling is likely wrong due to "shy Trump" voters that do not answer polling questions or lie about who they are supporting.
My Comment:
I agree with most of what Politico said here other then a few obvious disagreements. For one thing I don't think for a second that the polling is anywhere near correct. They are still assuming 2008 Barack Obama turnout and are vastly oversampling Republicans and Independent voters. I also think the accusations of "voter suppression" is nonsense at best and enemy action at worst. I have zero fear of any right wing militias showing up at the polls, but I wouldn't be surprised if Antifa or Black Lives Matters terrorists show up instead.
Still, it's a good sign that Politico is so worried here. To see them admit this is a major change in the way the media is covering the race. Even as recently as last week the media was lockstep in saying that there was basically no way that President Trump wins. It's a major about face to admit that President Trump even has a chance.
Of course there were some huge elephants in the room that Politico pretty obviously ignored. The most damning is of course the October surprise, probably the biggest one to hit in my lifetime. I am of course talking about the bribery and corruption concerns revealed in the Hunter Biden e-mails. The full scope of this scandal has not even been reveled at this point and could include actual sex crimes. It has already shown that the Biden family is at the least corrupt and may even show evidence of treason. You would have thought that Politico would have mentioned it, even to dismiss it, but to ignore it completely sure looks like they are terrified of it.
There is pretty obvious evidence of the Biden campaign itself being rattled about the story. Their media allies are trying to use the "Russia" deflection but it's pretty clear it isn't working, especially after DNI Ratcliff said that the claim was nonsense. Biden's put a lid on his campaign for this week meaning that he has zero events from yesterday until Thursday's debate, which I don't even think will happen at this point. It's clear that something huge is going on with the Biden campaign.
And that's not the only factor that Politico ignored. Another one is that I suspect that President Trump will do better among Blacks and Hispanics then any other Republican in recent history. Just today, rapper 50 Cent gave a back handed endorsement to Trump due to Biden's tax plan and he's not the only black figure to do so. Polling has shown too that black male approval of Trump is up compared to 2016 and if President Trump can get 15-20% of the black vote that alone should be able to
Plus, Hispanics will probably go for Trump in larger numbers as well. Hispanics are not monolithic and it's very clear that the Venezuelans and Cubans want nothing to do with the Biden/Harris ticket. They are opposed to communism and hate how Biden and Harris assume that they will vote for them. And given that immigration is on the back burner this year due to the Coronavirus I think that other groups of Hispanics will likely vote for Trump as well.
But the biggest omission from the Politico article? It has to be voter enthusiasm. President Trump is having massive rallies everywhere he goes. Even his visit to rock solid blue California yesterday had thousands of people lining the streets cheering him on as his motorcade passed. That wasn't for a rally, it was for a closed to the public fundraiser.
Biden on the other hand has rallies with attendance in the double digits at best. Indeed, in many cases the number of Trump supporters honking their horns and heckling Biden outnumber the Biden supporters themselves. And we are supposed to believe that people are excited to vote for Biden?
Indeed, I think there is a lot of evidence that people don't like Joe Biden. He's been credibly accused of rape and corruption. He also is showing signs of dementia and could be in poor health. He's not a good speaker and his debate performance was terrible. He's not woke enough for the woke crowd but moderates are turned off by his lip service to the woke and his awful choice for VP. None of his voters appear to be happy to vote for him, they just want to vote against President Trump.
Another indicator is how many primary votes President Trump got. Normally incumbents with no credible primary challengers, which Trump counts as, hardly get any votes. But President Trump? He's been getting record setting turnout, sometimes even outnumbering votes from the actually contested Democratic Primaries. And that was during a pandemic that was actually still scary during some of the votes. I know in my case I voted during the height of the pandemic with no facemasks or treatments available just because I was that angry with the Democratic Party. And that was before the Democrats starting burning down our major cities.
I continue to say that I think President Trump is going to pull off another "upset". He will get the required 270 electoral votes and I think he will do better then that. He might even get the popular vote as well given how good turnout was in California. Does he still have a chance of losing? Of course, but I think he's going to win again and do so without even having to rely on the Supreme Court.
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