Democrats are panicking in Florida after bad numbers have been found in Miami/Dade county. Politico. Democrats will likely need Florida if they are to win in 2020 but turnout is down in Miami compared to this point in 2016, even after the emphasis on mail in ballots. Many of those voters are younger and less reliable Democrats. The Democrats are blaming a lack of ground game and get out the vote efforts in the county, which haven't really even begun yet. Republicans also have a lead in turning out their voters in Miami/Dade county with 56% of their voters having already voted while only 53% Democrats having voted. Republican Hispanics have an even larger lead over Democratic Hispanics with a 9 point lead.
My Comment:
Again, the media is starting to admit that President Trump has a decent chance of winning next Tuesday. Miami is a hugely important city for the Democrats as it is their last, best hope of winning Florida. If President Trump wins in Florida his path to the White House gets extremely easy. Assuming that Trump holds onto other red states like Arizona and North Carolina, Trump would have 260 electoral votes and would only need to win one of the Rust Belt states or flip Nevada and New Hampshire. Biden would have to ensure that Trump didn't flip any new blue states and win every Midwest state or try and flip Arizona or North Carolina.
I do think it's rather stunning that the Democrats ground game is so bad. Usually they have an excellent ground game and are very good at getting their voters to the polls. To see them just assume that these people will vote is just confusing to me? Are they giving up the ghost or are they so arrogant that they don't think they can lose?
Hispanic voters are key in Miami and Florida in general and it's very clear that both Cubans and Venezuelans want nothing to do with the Biden Harris ticket. They hate socialism for good reason and they don't like that both candidates have been easy on the communist government of Cuba and the Socialist one of Venezuela. Other Hispanic groups aren't as effected but I think President Trump is chipping away at their support as well. Indeed, the trend of Trump supporters crashing Biden events began in the Hispanic areas of Florida.
Another problem is black turnout, which is down again. I just don't think black voters like Biden that much and nobody likes Kamala Harris, who is seen as a "fake" black person. It's also a major problem that President Trump has made a major push to get black voters. Even today he was seen working with Little Wayne, a hugely famous rapper. Not to mention his efforts at criminal justice reform. He is peeling away voters and convincing others to just stay home.
I also think it's pretty important to note that the Democrats admitted that their internal polling does not match at all what the polling companies are coming up with. I think their polls show them losing in Florida and they are scared about it. Though the Politico article says they are not panicking I think they are. And it's not just Florida as well, there are signs that Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are probably going to go for Trump as well and Democratic pipe dreams, like picking up Texas or Georgia are just that. Time will tell if these signs are real but I do think that the Democrats are in major trouble.
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