Vice President Mike Pence and President Tayyip Erdogan. ABC News.
The United States and Turkey have arranged a 120 hour cease fire agreement in Syria. ABC News. The Kurds will disengage from Turkish forces and pull back from a 20 mile corridor near the Turkish border. Once the withdrawal is complete Turkish forces will end the operation for good. Once the operation is completed sanctions against Turkish officials will be pulled. Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo negotiated the deal.
A Kurdish commander confirmed the deal and would work to ensure it work.
My Comment:
It's absolutely disgusting how badly the media is spinning this story. This is a huge victory for both President Trump and the Kurds. Yes, Turkey is getting some of what they want as well, but that's how negotiation works. The other side has to get some of what they want as well.
And it's amazing how quickly the spin changed. The media was calling for an end to the Turkish operation and were wanting us to go to war with Turkey to accomplish that goal. Now that the goal is accomplished they are mad? Did they care about what happens to the Kurds or not? Because this cease fire will save their lives.
To be sure though, there is no guarantee that the cease fire will hold. Pulling the Kurds out of the area will be a mess and it might not be complete at the end of the deadline. And there may be splinter groups of the YPG that might want to continue the fight in the safe zone.
Plus we have to wonder what Syria and their Russian allies will do. Given the fact that Russia is meeting with Erdogan soon, October 22nd, I think a deal will be made between Turkey and Syria. My guess is that Syria will accept Turkish troops in the safe zone in exchange for taking back the rest of Kurdish lands. The Syrians will keep the Kurds safe and the Turks won't go beyond their 20 mile limit.
What happens to the Kurds left behind in the safe zone? Probably not too much. Many will likely flee to the South so they can stay with the Syrians instead of the Turks. The ones that stay behind won't be in a great situation but they will be alive as long as the Turks can reign in their proxy militias.
This was an ugly situation all around but one that worked out in the end. The Turks could have caused a genocide but it looks like that won't happen now. It was a rough negotiation all around but I think this is the best outcome anyone was going to get.
Actually fighting the Turks would not end well for the Kurds. They were outgunned, outmanned and out of time. There was no way they were going to win. And short of going to war with Turkey, there wasn't much we could do to the Turks to get them to stop, other than using the strategy President Trump used, which was economic sanctions.
This is by no means a perfect solution but it's the best one that anyone could come up with. And it has a decent chance of working out in the end. Both the Turks and the Kurds seem to be on board and I am guessing that the Syrians will be soon as well. Once that happens one of the last sticking points in the Syrian Civil War will be gone. With that flashpoint over, all that will remain would be the US garrison in al-Tanf and the Jihadists remaining in Idlib Province...
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