President Trump withdraws troops from Northern Syria in advance of Turkish invasion.

The current state of Syria. Bloomberg.

President Donald Trump announced that he was pulling troops out of Northern Syria in advance of a Turkish invasion that will not be supported by the US government. Bloomberg. Turkey wishes to both establish a "safe zone" where they  can house thousands of Syrian refugees and to weaken the Kurds, who have established an area of control in the northern part of the country. The President also said that Turkey would take responsibility for the captured ISIS fighters housed in Northern Syria. The main Kurdish fighter group, the SDF, said that this was a betrayal and would allow ISIS to return. However, President Trump said that ISIS would be crushed if they ever returned but the captured fighters were now the problem of the various countries still involved in the Syria conflict. 

My Comment:

Fairly huge breaking news last night. It seems very likely that America's adventure in Syria is coming to a close. Though no troop withdrawals have been announced it sure seems like we are pulling our forces out of Northern Syria at the very least. My guess is that we will pull out everywhere soon as well. 

Turkey's move is highly aggressive and one that isn't really in the interests of anyone but Turkey. They plan on invading Syria which, in theory, could trigger a war between them and Syria. I doubt Assad is in any position to fight back as he is still fighting al-Nusra in Idlib province and has been crippled by the fight against ISIS, but the fact remains that this is an invasion. I am sure that Syria will file some kind of diplomatic protest that will be promptly ignored by everyone. 

And it's a totally selfish move as well. Instead of keeping the Syrian refugees, they are going to dump them back into Syria in a "safe zone" which probably won't be all that safe. Though ISIS is mostly gone they are still a threat and these Syrian refugees would be a prime target for them, and I am not sure the Turks have any interests in protecting them. They just want them out of their country, which is more than understandable, but the way they are doing it is likely to lead to quite a bit of death. 

Of course, getting rid of refugees is only a bonus for Tayyip Erdogan. His real goal is, as always, to attack the Kurds. Turkey is beyond paranoid that the Kurdish territory in Syria could become independent and be used as a base to launch attacks in Turkey. That fear isn't totally unjustified as the SDF is allied with the YPG terror groups, but I think it's motivated more out of bigotry than the obvious national security concerns. 

It seems pretty clear that President Trump is washing his hands of this operation. I doubt he feels very comfortable screwing over the Kurds, but he was always between a rock and a hard place there. The Kurds are complaining but I think they should realize that they were given a gift by President Trump as it's clear that he's not helping the Turks. That's probably about as good as they could have hoped for given the situation, with Turkey being a NATO ally.

That being said though, Turkey is out on a limb here. If there were to be some kind of response for Syria and their Iranian and Russian allies, I doubt NATO would intervene. This certainly seems like a war of choice here and not one that is supported by the alliance. Turkey has been a terrible ally recently and I would love to see them kicked out of NATO, but this alone won't be enough to do so. If Erdogan really pisses off the Russians (like if they shoot down another one of their planes) he can't count on America and Europe backing his play. Hopefully that will convince him not to do anything stupid. 

President Trump had a rather lengthy thread on Twitter this morning talking about the situation. It seems clear that he is sick and tired of wasting money and lives in Syria even after ISIS is gone. The few remaining neocons in the GOP won't like it, and neither will the media, but I do think President Trump is trying to keep one of his biggest campaign promises. 

Americans are tired of war. It's been almost two decades since the War on Terror began on 9/11/01 and we have very little to show for it. We have spent untold billions of dollars and thousands of lives and for what? Our country isn't any stronger than it was back in 2001 and in many ways it is weaker. President Trump campaigned on getting us out of these wars and I think he is right. The regional powers are going to have to figure this one out themselves. If Turkey, or Russia and Iran, want to waste lives and treasure on a war of choice in the worlds biggest mess, let them. There is no longer any reason for use to be involved. 

I do feel for the Kurds though. It's not hard to see this as a betrayal, but honestly it was one that they should have expected. Their goals and Americas goals were never the same and it always was a marriage of convenience to have them fight ISIS with us. Plus, history has shown that local fighters who work with the USA get screwed over in the end. But given the fact that the only way this goes down any differently is if we essentially go to war with Turkey, which is an ally, if in name only, they really should have expected it to turn out this way. That's realpolitick for you...

As for the question of the ISIS fighters, I am not too concerned. As long as the Kurds don't just decide to open the camps out of spite, which would almost certainly backfire on them, I don't expect much to happen. Turkey is free to take these enemies in and do with them what they want. I have zero sympathy for ISIS fighters, who have done some of the most despicable actions in the 21st century so far. Whatever their fate, it will be too good for them...