President Donald Trump. Politco/AP.
Moody's Analytics predicts a strong win for President Donald Trump in 2020. Politico. Moody's model was perfect in presidential elections until 2016 where it missed Trump's win. The model has now been adjusted so it would have predicted 2016 correctly. Moody's used three different models based on different economic factors and the average of all three was a 332-206 victory against the Democrats. The model that focused on consumer prices predicted a Trump win by 351 votes while one based on the stock market would have him win by 298. The third model based on state unemployment rates would result in a win by 332. In order to defeat President Trump Democrats would need either bad economic news or record turnout, according to Moody's.
My Comment:
I am guessing that this prediction is in line with both the GOP's and the Democrats' internal polling. If so, that would explain why Nancy Pelosi and the congressional Democrats went ahead with the impeachment inquiry. They are desperate to take him down through unconventional means because it looks like they can't do it through elections.
Of course, it was always likely that President Trump wins in 2020, regardless of the economy. Incumbents almost always win in presidential elections. In my lifetime the only time a president didn't win a 2nd term was George Bush Sr., and that was due to unique circumstances. Bush had a strong third party challenger in Ross Perot and broke a major campaign promise, plus was in the unique situation of having a GOP president in front of him. None of those factors are here for President Trump, so on that basis alone he's likely to win in 2020.
I also tend to think that impeachment won't harm President Trump. President Clinton famously had his poll numbers jump after being impeached and that was for a major sex scandal. No one has actually explained what President Trump supposedly did wrong in this scandal, so I am guessing something similar will happen here. His haters will still hate him and his supporters will rally to him but I think more than a few independents will think he's getting targeted unfairly.
I think the economy is also a very good thing for President Trump. I know that my personal wages and finances have gone up under him and the tax cut he and congress passed gave me quite a bit more money back on my paycheck. The only downside I have noticed is that it is hard to find replacement workers at work as there are so many job openings right now that it's a buyers market for workers. That's a quality problem to have.
The historically weak field of Democratic candidates also plays well for President Trump. Front runner Joe Biden has multiple scandals, from Ukraine to his treatment of women and girls, and probably won't even be the candidate. Elizabeth Warren's so extreme that even the far left tech industry won't report her and she's been exposed as someone who cheats affirmative action. And Bernie Sanders? He's half dead and fading fast. It's possible that some big name player could swoop in late and take the nomination, such as Hillary Clinton or Michael Bloomberg, but I doubt it. None of these candidates are well matched to go against President Trump.
That doesn't mean that a 2020 defeat isn't possible. A lot could happen between now and November that could make things more difficult. I think a lot of people on the right are resting on their laurels and are expecting the FISA report and the Huber investigation to just do all the hard work for them.
That's the worst thing they could do as the Democrats are likely to pull out every stop this election cycle. Though voter fraud hasn't been proven I do think that was a big factor in the 2018 midterms, and little has been done to prevent it this time around.
What is really needed is for Republicans to actually turn out to vote. Voter enthusiasm has to be high and the GOP has to back the president. One of the other reasons 2018 went poorly for the Republicans is that many GOP voters didn't want to vote for "never Trump" Republicans in swing districts. Trump will obviously help with that but ant-Trump Republicans can and will hurt Trump's reelection campaign.
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