President Trump at a campaign rally. Politico.
Democrats are starting to worry about President Donald Trump and the Republicans massive fundraising advantage. Politico. They have raised $300 million so far and have $158 million cash on hand, which is twice as much as Barack Obama and the Democrats had in the successful 2012 campaign. Trump has already spent $23 million on tv and digital adds, 10 times more than the one Democratic PAC buying ads at this point, Priorities USA. Trump is helped by the fact that Democratic donors are spreading their money around to a large field of Democratic candidates. One of the larger Democrat donor's, Tom Steyer, is complicating things buy spending his own money on a campaign that is likely to fail. Trump's advantage in funds will allow him to attempt to expand the electoral map in states like New Mexico and Minnesota. Democrats have grudgingly admitted that Trump's campaign is doing a very good job in organizing and finding new donors.
My Comment:
Looks like President Trump's warchest is starting to sound alarms among the Democrats. I've been saying for awhile now that President Trump has raised a remarkable amount of money. Trump's money dwarfs his opposition and he hasn't really even begun to fundraise. It's very likely by the time that the Democrats have chosen a candidate Trump will have such an advantage that the Democrats won't be able to overcome it.
Trump is also spending his money. I know that I personally have seen quite a few adds from President Trump's campaign and almost nothing from the Democrats. In addition I have seen a few ads for the NRA as well, showing that his allies are spending their money as well. The only Democrats I have seen are Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Buttgieg and Tom Steyer and both Buttgieg and Steyer were one-offs.
However, I don't think that big money is as big of a deal as everyone seems to think. Hillary Clinton outspent President Trump in 2016 and still lost. I don't think the same thing will happen here but fundraising isn't the biggest thing in an election.
I think fundraising is a better indication of how popular a candidate is. The Democrat's field is spread out with a bunch of candidates that nobody really cares about or likes. But Trump's basically the only game in town and his supporters love him. They are giving him money despite the danger of doing so, as attempts have been made to dox President Trump donors.
Trump and his allies have also been very good at exploiting the various gaffes and idiocy that is coming from the Democrats lately. Impeachment has proven to be a big moneymaker for the Republicans. So has Robert Francis O'Rourke's crazy comments on gun rights and taxing churches. If the Democrats had treated President Trump like a normal president and given him a fair shot I think they would be in a much better position right now.
Depending on who the candidate is, Democrats may find fundraising difficult. It's already been said that big tech won't donate to Elizabeth Warren since she is threatening to break them up. Though I can't see them giving to President Trump, I can see them not playing favorites with the 2020 race like they did in 2016.
I have said for awhile that the Democrats faced an uphill battle in 2020 and I think that still remains true. President Trump is an incumbent who presides over a good economy, had a higher approval rating that Barack Obama had at this point and is beloved by the rank and file of his party. He's accomplished some of his campaign promises and has at least put up a fight at getting the rest done. That alone should help him a great deal.
Further more, there is some evidence that the various investigations in Washington will finally come out and some of President Trump's enemies will go to jail. Time will tell if there is anything to the Durham investigation but if it does the Democrats are screwed.
I also think that the major division in the Democratic Party is causing much of the trouble. The GOP is mostly united as the neocons and never-trumps are mostly irrelevant today. Not so in the Democratic Party as the neo-libs are fighting the economic socialists and the idpol people. The attacks on Tulsi Gabbard from Hillary Clinton are a good example of this, but far from the only one. It really looks like the lunatics are running the asylum and that Democratic leadership is completely failing to herd the cats.
All that being said, a lot can happen between now and November. Complacency is Trump's biggest enemy here and there is a chance that everyone will just assume that he will win and will stay home. He needs to make sure that his "get out the vote" game is on target and if it is he should be golden. If it isn't then it won't matter if he raised more money...
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