Ukraine has apparently launched a helicopter attack in Russia targeting an oil depot. Fox News. Two helicopters were seen on video launching the attack, which set several fires and injured two workers. Ukraine has denied the attack and suggested that it was a false flag from Russia. The incident complicates peace talks which have been ongoing between Russia and Ukraine.
#BREAKING: Video reportedly of Ukrainian attack helicopters striking oil facility in Belgorod, across the border inside Russia pic.twitter.com/NfQVJ97rbA
— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) April 1, 2022
Video reportedly of the two Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopters that took part in the attack on the oil facility in Belgorod. https://t.co/Ue5sVJPPZ8 pic.twitter.com/NRpEAHcc4B
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 1, 2022
My Comment:
What a hugely embarrassing incident for the Russians. It's clear that the air defenses were asleep at their posts. Don't they have fighter jets on patrol during an active war? Ground base defenses? Did they even pick them up on radar? Nobody seems to have tried to shoot these helicopters down, which is just a joke.
Some of that might have been due to Ukrainian tactics. They very wisely were extremely low to the ground, which may have prevented them from showing up on air radar. Doing so is a common way to evade air defenses and that may have been the case here.
I have zero doubt that this was the Ukrainians. I am somewhat surprised that they still had any attack helicopters but they are a lot easier to operate and use without airfields, which have mostly been destroyed in Russian airstrikes. It wouldn't take too much to get these helicopters, which appear to be MI-24 Hinds, into battle.
I don't think that there is any chance whatsoever that this was some kind of Russian false flag. Why? Well for one it's hugely embarrassing to the Russians that these helicopters were able to attack their soil. The amount of face they lost here would absolutely outweigh any sort of propaganda victory they would get from this.
It doesn't make any sense to do this whatsoever. The damage this attack caused will hurt Russian operations in Ukraine as this was a fuel depot that is supplying the Russian attack. So somehow the Russians are helping their attack by damaging it? And why would they false flag themselves at this point in the war anyways?
This will complicate the peace talks but not by much. Indeed, it might help move them along as the Russians now have a justified fear of further attacks. Much better to end the war as soon as possible to prevent any more attacks on Russian infrastructure.
But I do wonder if the Russians will retaliate because of this attack. Not so much trying to track down these helicopters and destroy them, which they will do anyways, but more like them trying to launch major air strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, which has largely been left alone by the Russians.
This incident will likely increase the idea that the Russians are losing the war, which is not a view that I share. It's true that the Russians are having a much more difficult time winning than they probably thought, but it's not like their goal was to take the whole country. Their main goal seems to be to capture the Donbass region and destroy the forces stationed there, including the much hated Azov Battalion, and they seem to be succeeding in that goal.
Still, it's a bad look for them to have their own territory attacked like this. They must be very embarrassed and frustrated that this has happened. It's a huge victory for the Ukrainians as well, even though militarily it is a fairly minor one. In terms of propaganda, it' a coup for the Ukrainians and I bet it is a major morale boost for the soldiers on the front line.
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