Western officials concede that Russia can still win the war in Ukraine despite heavy casualties and some failed objectives. Reuters. Vladimir Putin did not manage to capture the capital of Kiev and has retreated from the northern part of Ukraine, but is starting a major offensive in the Donbass region. An official said to Reuters that if Putin is able to get his forces to take the area he would create a land bridge to Crimea, which would be a major victory in the war. Russia then would be in position to launch further attacks against the capital of Kiev. Western officials have also said that Russia is getting better at command and control, with armored formations being more effective with less traffic jams compared to the initial stages of the war.
My Comment:
Russia certainly has seen some major setbacks in the war against Ukraine. Their northern offensive targeting Kiev is largely seen as a failure. Even if you buy that the entire campaign was an effort to draw forces away from the Donbass region, making the forces there easier to destroy, you have to admit that the Russians paid dearly for that distraction.
Even worse, Russia has had some major embarrassments during the war. They have had several minor attacks inside their borders by Ukrainian forces, including incredibly embarrassing helicopter attacks. But the biggest embarrassment of them all was the loss of their flagship, the guided missile cruiser Moskva.
Russia clearly made some mistakes in the war. I don't think they thought that the Ukrainians would put up as much of a fight as they did. They underestimated how effective western arms would be against their tanks and aircraft. And they also never seemed to get their logistics together in the Northern front. Plus, they foolishly decided to invade during "mud season" meaning that many of their attacks were not able to deviate from the highways unless they wanted to get stuck in the mud.
With that being said, I do think it is likely that Russia manages to take Donbass from Ukraine. Though they have taken heavy casualties they can still win a more limited war where they focus on taking Donbass and establishing their land bridge to Crimea.
Why? There are several factors that are in their favor. First, the terrain in Donbass is a lot more open and less urban than the area around Kiev that bogged them down in the North. This means their tanks and APC's should be able to maneuver better. It's also no longer mud season so they also should be able to take their armor off road.
Ukraine is also on their last legs. They have gone through weapons so fast that the western governments are running out of anti-tank and anti-air missiles. Germany has said they have no more supplies to give and I don't think it will be long before the same is true for other European countries. The United States can do so for longer but I have already heard grumblings about how much we are spending on Ukraine.
I also think that their casualties have been as bad or worse than Russia's and they are less able to sustain them as well. More pointedly, they lost a ton of their best troops in the Mariupol region, which is now under Russian control. It's a lot easier to replace weapons than it is to replace people and unlike Russia they don't have a near limitless supply of conscripts to do so with.
Americans also don't seem to understand Russian psychology at all. I am far from an expert but I do think that the Russians are a lot more tolerant to casualties than we are in the United States. World War II is in living memory for these people and to say that Russians are used to tragedy is an understatement. I don't think we will see people turning on Putin just because casualties are high.
I also think that the Western strategy for cutting Russia from the world economy has worked at all. The Ruble has largely recovered since the war and Europe is buying more Russian oil, not less. And much of the world does not seem to care about Western sanctions at all, with major economies such as China, India and Brazil continuing normal trade with Russia. The sanctions have been more damaging to the United States and Europe than it ever was to Russia.
Could Russia lose the war? I am not sure. I can't see the Ukrainians mustering up a large enough offensive to push Russia out of all the territory they have taken just in this current war, not to mention Crimea and the Donbass Republics. I also don't see even a status quo antebellum happening either, where Russia keeps Crimea and the Donbass Republics, but nothing else.
I could see Russia's offensive in Donbass sputtering out and the front lines stabilizing, leading to a stalemate. They have lost a lot of arms and equipment and cannot easily replace them and if the Ukrainians fight hard enough they could stop the offensive. I do not find that likely though.
But I also don't see a total Russian victory, where they capture Kiev and hang Zelenskyy, likely either. I don't see them taking Kiev given the high costs that it would entail and the fact they tried once and failed. There is a tiny chance that the Ukrainian military collapses but I don't see that happening.
I think the most likely outcome is that Russia captures Donbass, says enough is enough, and then ends the war. That would accomplish most of their goals and would put Ukraine in a position that they would have to accept at least some of the Russian demands. They won't get their territory back and won't join NATO and when that happens the killing should stop.
Will it be worth it for Russia? That's a good question. I know they didn't want Ukraine in NATO and were losing millions of dollars providing water and other resources to Crimea via ship. And the sanctions against them likely won't last and are doing more damage to their enemies then they are doing to themselves.
But on the other hand, they have lost a lot of face during this war. The losses they have suffered will be hard to replace and I don't see western relations with Russia recovering anytime soon. Some of their losses, such as the cruiser Moskva, will not be replaced period. It might end up being the very definition of a pyrrhic victory...
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