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A sanctioned Russian oil tanker. Kees Torn via Flickr.
Ukraine has struck Russia's key oil exporting infrastructure and two sanction oil tankers. CBS News. Primorsk, a major Baltic Sea port, was hit by drones from Ukraine and has hit two tankers near the Black Sea port Novorossiysk as well. This is causing a disruption of oil exports for Russia, which is making billions of dollars off of higher oil prices due to disruption from the Iran War. The Ukraine conflict has largely been a stalemate for months with most of the violence coming in tit-for-tat drone strikes.
My Comment:
It's been awhile since I have covered the Russia-Ukraine war, and for good reason. There has been an almost total lack of coverage on the conflict ever since the conflict with Iran broke out. Many of the neutral and pro-Russia accounts that I read have totally moved on to the Iran war, many of them beclowning themselves in the process. Even pro-Ukraine accounts have been highlighting Ukraine's accomplishments in the Iran War, which, to be fair, have been a help. Ukraine actually has been a decent ally in the Iran conflict.
Of course, there actual facts on the battlefield suggest the war has fallen into a doldrums. Sure, both Ukraine and Russia are taking territory and the war has a lot of tit-for-tat drone strikes but there hasn't been any major offensives from either side. Some of this is due to it being mud season, but it's clear that not much has changed in the conflict since the Iran war broke out.
My general assessment for the war still remains an eventual Russian victory. This is attritional warfare, and it's messy and horrible and it's less about taking back territory and more about destroying weapons, vehicles and people. Indeed, given the state of movement in the battlefield, it seems as though Ukraine is settling into the same style of warfare, which is surprising given they can't possibly win such a conflict given their lack of economy, manpower and weapons compared to Russia.
However, these strikes are probably important given that they are making a bad situation worse. Obviously, gas and oil prices are very high due to the Iran conflict. But it's not the only reason they are high, blowing up oil tanks and tankers in Russia is going to contribute to the problem. It's not going to be the main factor of course, but it's not helping things.
I generally think that this is an act of desperation by Ukraine as Russia is making bank from the oil prices going up and that is being used to fund the conflict. I do think these strikes are damaging and are helping to offset the money Russia is making off of oil. It's also hurting everyone else who is already in an energy crunch due to the Iran conflict.
