Russia cuts off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria.

 

A gas worker in Belarus. Fox Business/AP.

Russia has cut off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria after the two countries refused to pay for gas in rubles. Fox Business. The suspensions would be the first after Russia told "unfriendly" countries that they would have to pay in rubles or be cut off. Only Hungry has agreed with this demand. Poland and Bulgaria will suffer greatly due to the cut off since Poland gets 45% of their natural gas from Russia while Bulgaria gets 90% of their gas from Russia. The shipments will stop this Wednesday. Europe is especially vulnerable to cutoffs of natural gas as much of their energy comes from the fuel. 

My Comment:

Looks like Russia is playing hardball. This is going to utterly cripple the economy of Poland and Bulgaria. They are largely dependent on Russia's natural gas and don't have alternate sources set up. They are going to lose billions of dollars if this issue isn't resolved quickly. 

The only good thing is that home heating isn't quite as relevant now that it is spring. I'm no expert on European climate but I am guessing they are past the point where people will freeze to death if they can't heat their homes. It will be uncomfortable to be sure but you can survive it. 

But heating homes is just one of the problems. People won't be able to afford to buy electricity either and that's a major problem in a modern country. Without power the economy shuts down and you can't do much of anything. And people could die because of it, if you can't power things like hospitals and traffic lights. 

Will the people of Bulgaria and Poland put up with this? I am not sure. I do know that both countries hate Russia and want them to suffer but living without power or heat is not something that most people can tolerate. If the governments can't offer a solution, and soon, it's very possible they will face huge pressure to either change this policy or change their government... 

I don't think that Russia will suffer too much from this policy. They are going to lose out on some money but they have switched their focus to selling to non-European countries. They have largely recovered already from Western sanctions and I think they can afford to cut off a few countries. If they cut all of Europe off at once they will be in trouble but this strategy should work better. 

I also understand why Russia chose these two countries. Poland has been crucial in the effort to supply Ukraine with weapons. If they were somehow pressured into giving up that, or become unstable due to the effects of this cut off it would make it much harder to supply Ukraine. And Bulgaria just happened to be a country that just left Russia's orbit. It makes sense that they would be punished as well. 

I think that Europe is having to pay a massive price here for questionable goals. The United States has admitted that their goal is to cripple the Russian military and if it means that Europe goes without energy that's a small price to pay. I understand that Europe does have good reason to be afraid of Russia, of course, but it makes little sense to cripple their economy over the whims of the United States...