NATO says Russia is regrouping for a major attack in the Donbass region.

 

Fires burn in Ukraine. US News & World Report/AFP/Getty.

NATO says that Russia is regrouping for a major attack in the Donbass region of Ukraine. Reuters. NATO's Secretary General Jensen Stolen said that the Russians had pulled out of the Kiev region to rearm, resupply and reinforce a major offensive near Donbass. The goal would be to link up Crimea to the rest of Russia. The move could take weeks and NATO has said they will attempt to provide more weapons to the Ukrainians in response. 

My Comment:

Ugh, talk about stating the obvious. It's been clear that the Russians have pulled out in order to support their offensive in the Donbass region. It's not hard to figure that out but NATO is acting like it's some huge disclosure. 

This also supports the idea that Russia's true goal in Ukraine was Donbass in the first place. That makes since as the Ukrainians were cutting off water and other supplies to Crimea before the war, costing the Russian government millions of dollars. By linking up the Donbass region and Crimea the Russians would be solving one of their major problems. 

Donbass is one of the most wealthy and important regions in Ukraine. It's where a lot of Ukraine's industry is located and I have heard that they have large unexploited energy reserves. It makes more sense that Russia would want to take this region instead of the capitol. 

The Russians also have a goal of destroying the Ukrainian army and various militias, most notably right wing Neo-Nazi ones like the Azov Battalion. Those troops and militias are mostly deployed in the Donbass region and have been since the beginning of the war. This new offensive will have their destruction as a primary goal. 

I also think that this is pretty conclusive proof that the Kiev offensive was never anything more than a feint. The offensive there drew forces away from Donbass and destroyed many Ukrainian units. In that way the offensive was successful. 

But I do think that the Kiev offensive is not a victory for the Russians. Though capturing Kiev was not a primary objective, they did lose a ton of their best forces in the fight around the capital, most notably many of their VDV paratroopers. Not the mention the massive amount of tanks and equipment they lost as well. The attack there did distract the Ukrainians but the cost was very high. 

I am reminded, however, that the Russians do not view casualties the same way that the west does. If America had an offensive like this that led to so many casualties there would be riots in the streets. The Russians do not see it that way as they are much more accustomed to tragedy than we are. Russian warfare has always been a meatgrinder affair and they are much more willing to take casualties than we are. 

So will the offensive in Donbass succeed? Probably. Russia has been fairly successful in the southern and eastern theaters and should be able to succeed with major reinforcements. The problem is that it will take time to do so and every day the Ukrainians are getting more weapons. Those weapons won't stop the Russians but it will cost them a huge amount of casualties. 

And I think it might take them a long time to get this ready. If the war has taught us anything about the Russian military it's that it's very bad at logistics. That seems to be the main reason why the Kiev offensive sputtered out. They weren't able to move up troops, supplies, ammo and fuel because they just weren't able to. Routing the supplies through Belarus probably complicated things, just as it will complicate things moving troops to Donbass now. I think it will be awhile before we see this offensive.