Russia claims that most of Mariupol is under their control...

 

A street in the contested city of Mariupol.

Russia claims that all urban areas of Mariupol, a critical port city on the Sea of Azov are now under their control. Reuters. Only a few Ukrainian fighters remain in the hotly contested Azovstal Steelworks. The Russians say that the only way for those soldiers to survive is to lay down their arms. Russia claims to have killed 4000 soldiers in the fight with 1,464 soldiers surrendering as well. Ukraine has made no comment on Russia's claims in Mariupol. 

My Comment:

Russia is in need of a victory in Ukraine. After their retreat from the Kiev region and the loss of their cruiser, Moskva, they need any good news they can get. Taking a major city in Ukraine would go a long way to boosting morale and giving them a much needed victory. 

Are the Russians right though? I am not sure. The Ukrainians would probably deny it but I don't trust them any more than the Russians. And I am also not sure I trust any of the third party map makers as many of them take Ukraine's word at face value (or the Russians if they are aliened that way). 

I do know that Mariupol is major priority of the Russians. It lies smack dab in the middle of both of the breakaway Russia aligned Republics, Luhansk and Donetsk.  It's a major port as well, at least it was before the war destroyed much of it. Capturing it appears to be necessary in order to further Russia's plans for Ukraine. It might be what the major Russian offensive in the Donbass region is waiting on, once Mariupol is fully taken it will free up the troops that are fighting there to help with the new campaign. 

I think that the Ukrainian fighters would probably be best off surrendering. There isn't that many of them left and those that are there are likely cut off from supplies. Fighting to the last man isn't really going to gain the Ukrainian government much and at this point nobody should fault them for surrendering, they did put up a fierce fight. 

I do wonder though if the fighters holed up in the metal works are in fact from the far right Nazi aligned militias, like the Azov Battalion. Mariupol was always their headquarters and if those are the fighters that left maybe that means they can't expect to surrender. One of the major reasons why Russia started the war was to destroy these fighters and given the fact that many of them have committed war crimes I can't expect they would receive a warm welcome if they lay down their arms. 

As for the current state of the war itself, I am not sure. I certainly have not been impressed with Russia's military. They have been fighting with one hand behind their backs though, as it wasn't until yesterday that they used heavy bombers in combat, but even beyond that they have taken massive casualties. Indeed, between the retreat from Kiev, the destruction of the Moskva and the major losses in vehicles and men, the war has not gone well for the Russians. 

But I do think that they will probably win out in the end, for a given definition of winning. I don't think they can or will take over all of Ukraine, but I do think that they can take the Donbass region and make a land bridge to Crimea. 

It's all going to depend on the next big offensive, which I think will start when Mariupol is totally secure. And they may have a better time of it than they did in the North of the country. That region was highly urbanized while most of Donbass is plains, perfectly suited to tank warfare. And given the major losses the Ukrainians have taken they might not be able to stop the Russians when they do come. 

If the offensive fails though? Then I think Russia is out of luck. Their losses are not sustainable if the war drags out much beyond this. I don't think we will ever see Russia withdraw from Crimea and the Republics will remain out of control of Ukraine, but that's status quo ante. If that's all the Russians get out of this war it will go down as a massive mistake on their part.