A panel of experts testified before congress that China may invade Taiwan in the next five years. Roll Call. Previously, experts believed that the only likely way for war to break out was if Taiwan were to formally declare independence from China. Though Taiwan has been de-facto independent since the Communist revolution it has not declared independence. However, the modernization of the Chinese military, the weakness of the United States coalition and the ambition of President Xi may make war much more likely. Xi is probably waiting for an opportune time before striking. Though the Trump administration had made efforts to increase ties to Taiwan it's unclear how effective those efforts will be in deterring China from attacking.
My Comment:
I think that this analysis is pretty optimistic in terms of China's abilities to actually invade Taiwan. An amphibious invasion is one of the most difficult military operations a country can undertake and that was true years ago. In a modern military environment it is even more difficult.
I don't think China has the Navy to actually take Taiwan. Though they have modernized their navy and even have an aircraft carrier. But what they really need is transport ships and I don't think they have enough. And that's assuming that other regional powers don't join Taiwan in their defense of their island.
I also think that China will largely be a paper tiger. They haven't been in a real war since Korea and lost their last major conflict when Vietnam kicked their ass back in the 1970's. Since then none of their troops have gotten any combat experience. To be fair the same thing is true for Taiwan but it certainly not true for US forces.
Another x-factor is what would America do. I can't imagine there is much desire to go to war with China over Taiwan. Though China is a brutal communist dictatorship who genocides religious minorities and is responsible for the Coronavirus outbreak but even that wasn't enough to get Americans to meaningfully punish China. Americans are war weary after two decades of war in the middle east and the last thing anyone wants is a war with China.
Other countries in the region might be more interested in a war with China. Japan is afraid of the country and so is South Korea. Vietnam too is opposed to China. These are countries that Taiwan should be building an alliance with.
Despite the horrible casualties that would result in a war between China and Taiwan it might actually be a good thing for the United States in the end, assuming we don't get involved. China is seriously underestimating the costs, both in money and lives, that taking Taiwan would take. A war would likely utterly destroy their economy, cause Xi and the communist party to lose face and could even lead to revolution if they end up failing.
There is a small concern that such a war could lead to a nuclear exchange. Either between China and the United States or China nuking their non-US foes in the war. Such an exchange would be devastating and would probably result in hundreds of millions of casualties, if not a billion. Such an outcome is unlikely but is always a concern when a war happens between two countries that have nuclear arms.
In the end though, I do think that China will hold off on any war with Taiwan. Unlike basically all western countries, China is playing the long game. I think they feel they can wait for the United States to fail, which we are well on the path to doing so, and then they can invade Taiwan without interference. I don't think they care if that happens in five years or twenty but until that happens (and it's an inevitability at this point if the Democrats remain in power) they won't go to war with Taiwan.
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