As you know President Donald Trump spoke at CPAC today. I didn't have the opportunity to watch it but from what I gathered Trump hinted that he would run in 2024. In addition, he ran away with the CPAC straw poll with only Florida Governor Ron DeSantis coming close, with Trump getting 55% of the vote.
It's pretty clear that President Trump still commands the Republican Party. Even Mitch McConnell, who falsely blamed Trump for the January 6th counter-coup has said that he will support him if he is the candidates and the handful of Republicans who supported impeachment are facing primary challenges. His base loves him and supports him.
I think that President Trump has the loyalty of most of the Republican Party and that if he decides to run he will win. I don't even think that's a controversial statement. Indeed, now that the news isn't 24/7 against him I think he will only gain in popularity. And if Biden continues to screw up the country I think a lot of people will reevaluate the Trump presidency, realizing that the time he was president before the pandemic hit was pretty damn good.
But I do have a couple of questions. The first is whether or not he can win. The Democrats pulled out all the stops in the 2020 election and aren't even pretending that the election was legitimate and transparent. Voter fraud and bias cost Trump the election in 2020 and I don't see that problem being better in 2024, though it might be if there is someone else running.
Barring that though I do think he could win. The 2020 election was decided by just a few votes in swing states and Trump could easily pick up more voters, especially if Biden screws up even worse than he has now and if Kamala Harris is the candidate in 2024. Honestly, if she is the candidate pretty much anyone the Republicans run will beat her.
My second question is should President Trump even run. I think that he did a good job as President and I really wish he was in charge right now instead of Joe Biden. But some of the same concerns I have with Biden might be relevant with Donald Trump in 2024. Trump is 74 years of age and in 2024 he will be 78. Though he is in good health now, even beating back the Coronavirus, he might not be in 2024. Hell, as sad as it is to day, he might not make it to 2024.
If Donald Trump does decide to run, it's going to be very important that he pick a good VP. I don't think Mike Pence is going to be the VP this time around. He burned a lot of bridges with Trump, the Republicans and the base of the party when he certified the election. President Trump will have to pick someone who is young enough to fill in if the unthinkable happens.
Will Trump run? I think he wants to. He certainly feels he was cheated out of the election and doesn't want his legacy to end with him getting screwed over. He wants a do over and can you blame him? But again, just because he may want to run now does not mean he will be willing and able to do so once the primaries start in 2023.
Will I support President Trump if he runs? I can't imagine not doing so. He was the best president in my lifetime and I don't think anyone from the neocon wing of the party can win. And it's not like there are any better choices, only Ron DeSantis is a credible candidate in my view. Cruz might have had a chance but his recent scandals may have sunk him. And as much as I love Rand Paul I can't see him winning the primary. Trump's family members probably could have a chance but it would be insanity on their part to try and run against him.
I also think it's going to very hard for anyone in the GOP to run against him. Trump has the support of most of the GOP electorate and will probably gain more as time goes on. And if there is one thing that the GOP base is sick of it's people bashing Trump but how else would they run against him? I think there might be a couple of John Kasich types that try and fail to run against him but that's about it.
But if Donald Trump doesn't run and is still around in 2024? His endorsement is going to be the most sought out one in the GOP race. Trump is the kingmaker right now and he has already shown he is willing to throw his weight around. The people that voted for his impeachment are all likely to be primaried out and if President Trump doesn't want to run he can basically pick the GOP nominee.
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