President Trump shifts course on China, will allow 600,000 student visas.

 

President Trump and President Xi. Fox News/Bloomberg/Getty. 

President Trump has shifted course on China, and will allow up to 600,000 student visas from the country. Fox News. Trump made the remarks today and people have speculated that it could be a signal that US-China relations are thawing after a trade war. Talks led to lower levels of tariffs after a tit for tat trade war ended this may, though Trump is still threatening tariffs on certain goods, such as magnets. There are currently 270,000 students from China enrolled at US universities. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has gone after visas for Chinese nationals that have ties to the Communist party or are in sensitive research fields. 

My Comment:

This is not a popular move by President Trump and one I don't really agree with. Though 600,000 students is a drop in the bucket it does come at a time where most folks are against immigration of any form. And it comes at a time where China and the United States are, if not outright enemies, competitors at least. 

To be fair, there could be some benefits to allowing it. If it is something that allows America to get a favorable trade deal with China then it might be worth it. It does seem like America is heading that way and it's a given that we would have to give something up in order to get what we want. Given that these students aren't a huge deal, it might just be something worth offering up, if a trade deal is upcoming. 

These foreign students would also help the economy a bit. They would at least prop up our college systems that do need foreign students to survive (at least some of them do). These students would at least buy things to survive while they were here and that would cause some economic activity. 

There is also the idea that educating these people could lead to real change in China. The idea is that they would be exposed to American ideals and beliefs and could spread those back home in China. This could lead to liberalization and could even lead to better relations with China. After all, these students would likely be elite and would have a fair amount of influence. 

Of course, all issues are trade offs and even if all of those things are true, it still might not be worth it. There would be a real fear that many of these students would be spies, either in the traditional sense, stealing government secrets, or more corporate versions that would steal research and scientific discoveries. China has a long history of both and it's not a great idea to allow them further access than they already have. 

The other issue is that they might be taking seats that Americans should have first access too. Given how lucrative these students are, it's very likely that they would be pushed to the front of the line and make American students 2nd class citizens in their own country. This is, of course, already happening, but it could absolutely get worse. And it's very possible that these colleges could change their coursework to better reflect Chinese capabilities. Remember what I said about these students influencing China? Well, that's a two way street and these students could convince Americans that their way of doing things is better. 

I also have to wonder why we would want to help China. These students will, presumably, be well trained and would be used to make China stronger. America probably doesn't benefit from a stronger China (though who knows what the future holds). Should an economic or actual war break out between China and the United States perhaps this will be like shooting ourselves in the foot. Maybe some of these students will decide to stay in the United States instead and we might get some benefit from that, but it's no sure thing. 

I also think that it goes against the mood of the country. Folks are sick and tired immigration in any form, even if it's just for a student visa. Though China is hardly the biggest contributor to this at all, it still sends the wrong message, at least among Trump voters. Many of us would rather see a complete pause on all immigration. 

Regardless though, I'm a lot less concerned about 600,000 Chinese students than many of the South American and Indian immigrants. Chinese people tend to be well behaved in general and aren't likely to enter the country illegally and illegally get a drivers license and then kill people making an illegal u-turn. These other groups of immigrants concern me a lot more than anything these Chinese students could ever. If accepting a few hundred thousand Chinese students is the price we have to pay for getting rid of many of these illegal immigrants, than so be it. But it doesn't mean I have to like it. 

The House wants to ban Chinese AI program DeepSeek from government devices...

 

File photo of the DeepSeek. AP.

The House wants to ban Chinese AI program DeepSeek from government computers and may move to ban it entirely from the United States. AP. DeepSeek took the tech world by storm by being as effective as American AI programs but with much cheaper costs. However, major security concerns exist. The program can send login information to a company that has been banned from operating on US soil. The ban would be similar to the one currently in use for TikTok, which is banned from government devices. Another bill has been introduced that would ban all AI that comes from China. 

My Comment:

It's not surprising that DeepSeek would have the ability to steal login information. The whole thing seems like a major scam by China in order to use AI against the rest of the world. Banning this technology from government devices is a major no-brainer. DeepSeek appears to be slightly better than other chat based AI but the security threat obviously isn't worth it. 

Some will say that this is just the United States not wanting to compete with DeepSeek, which appears to offer a superior product. I am sure that is part of it as tech stocks took a massive hit after DeepSeek was released. But just because that is true does not mean that DeepSeek should be used on government devices. 

I also have questions about how China was even able to develop this program. I think they are obviously smart enough (and willing to steal) to pull it off, but they do not have the production ability to get the chips needed to run them. You need high end, professional GPU's to run these kinds of programs and supposedly China does not have access to those chips. They may have made their own but it's more likely that they were able to obtain them from Taiwan somehow. 

I don't really know why AI programs like this would be allowed on government devices in the first place. AI chat programs are just toys and don't seem to do all that much useful other than function as a better search engine than Google. Supposedly chat based AI is supposed to change the world but I also don't know why the government would need to use it. 

Besides, there are plenty of US based choices they could use even if the AI was necessary. ChatGPT and Claude are supposedly only slightly worse than DeepSeek and I have found that Grok, Elon Musk's AI program based on the X platform, works fine. That comes with a X subscription and you can also use it to generate stupid pictures like this:

Regardless, I am not sure if a full ban of DeepSeek is necessary. I think if the ability to scan someone's login info is removed than it should be fine for domestic use. I still wouldn't be comfortable having it on government devices, but that's true no matter the program, I don't think Facebook, Instagram or X should be on government devices either, unless it's for official accounts. Either way, if DeepSeek cleans their act up then it would be fine to allow them for domestic use. If they don't then a full ban might be necessary. 

   

Man enraged about his divorce kills 35 people in China in car ramming massacre.

 

A makeshift memorial at the sight of the crime. AP.

A man upset about his divorce killed 35 people in a car ramming attack in China. AP. The 62 year old man was receiving treatment for self inflicted wounds. The man had driven a car into a crowd outside of a PLA military aviation exhibition at a sports complex in Zhuhai. Dozens of people were wounded in the attack. News about the attack is being censored on Chinese internet but is widely available on X, formally Twitter. The attack happened yesterday but only today has China released casualty figures. China has a long history of mass violence, though those have mostly been mass stabbings, not car attacks. No motive has been released other than police saying the man was upset that he was losing money in his divorce. 

My Comment:

This is another example of how mass violence is not strictly an American problem. China does indeed have a long history of mass violence, though in most cases it's mass stabbings instead of car ramming attacks. China has the strictest gun control in the world but when someone is angry enough that they want to kill a bunch of innocent people, they will find a way. And this is just another example of this.

Indeed, car ramming attacks have become more common. Unfortunately, ISIS showed the world just how effective these attacks could be, with the Nice attack being the most relevant but hardly only example. In a country where even knives are hard to get, it's easy for someone to hop in a car and run down a crowd. 

Censorship is a concern here as well. China is notorious for censoring what their citizens can access in terms of news. This story has largely been erased from Chinese internet and they have gone so far as to rough up a BBC reporter for covering the story. It's sad just how censored the Chinese media environment is. 

To be fair, I have said that we should probably give less coverage to mass killings like this because I have always been convinced that doing so tends to inspire copy cat attacks. You can see that pattern here in the United States. School shooters used to use shotguns and High Point Carbines because that is what the Columbine shooters did but then it switched to handguns and then AR rifles. Following trends is a think even in mass violence and there is an argument that advertising to the world how easy it can be to kill a large group of people is a bad thing. It's one of the reason why I think we rarely hear about the Las Vegas attacks, folks doing the same thing could have even more deadly results... 

Still, there is a difference between downplaying an issue to try and prevent the spread and ignoring it to the point where you rough up journalists that try to cover it. China is in the wrong here, folks do deserve to know if  there is a major attack like this. There has to be freedom of speech. 

As for the motive of the attack, this seems to be pure nihilism. The attacker was upset over a divorce, and for that 35 people had to die (at least, I don't trust the numbers from China). I can understand being upset about a divorce ruining your life, but the solution isn't to kill a bunch of people that had nothing to do with it. China has the death penalty so I am guessing this guy won't be long for the earth and to be honest, if anyone deserves it, it's someone that kills people, not for some greater cause, but just because he's angry about a divorce... 

Biden administration orders the US to prepare for nuclear conflict with China...

 

Joe Biden. New York Post/Reuters

Joe Biden has secretly ordered the United States to prepare for a nuclear threat from China. New York Post. Biden made the shift in March because they believed that China's nuclear arsenal would soon rival the United States and Russia. They also fear that China, Russia and North Korea could combine forces for a nuclear threat. Russia should have 1000 nuclear weapons by 2030 and 1500 by 2035. Those numbers are far below the 5200 weapons America has and the 5800 Russia has. In the past Russia and China balanced each other out, but the two countries are now de facto allies, which is another reason why the policy has been changed. The document outlying this policy is updated about every four years and is beyond top secret to the point where no electronic versions exist and only a few top officials have access to hard  copies. 

My Comment:

It sounds like this document is updated every four  years and it's unclear if the document was scheduled to be updated or if it did because of a rapidly changing threat environment. It's possible it is both. It is clear that the threat of nuclear war is higher than it has ever been before. 

This is also an entirely predictable result of the Biden administration's foreign policy. It's been American policy since the 1950's to pit Russia and China against each other. They are obviously a bigger threat to each other than we are and the only way that would change is if we became such a dangerous enemy that they had to team up against it, which is exactly what Joe Biden has done. 

Starting the war in Ukraine has been an absolute disaster but pushing China and Russia into each other's arms was a massive mistake. It's to the point where China and Russia are de facto allies and both North Korea and Iran are teaming up with them as well. 

This would obviously change the threat environment even if China wasn't increasing their nuclear forces at a staggering rate. Mutually assured destruction does not work if one side has a major advantage over the other. Russia, China and North Korea may believe that the United States no longer has enough nukes to destroy all three countries and might be willing to risk a conflict if they can get a first strike off. And since Russia has the advantage in hypersonic weapons, they might have a chance. 

Is China the bigger threat? I am not sure. Russia has the obvious advantage of having a lot more nukes, China currently does not even have 1000 warheads. I think it's clear that it would be a lot better to get into a war with China alone than a war with Russia. 

But I think it's also clear that Russia doesn't seem to care all that much about red lines. They absolutely should have used nuclear weapons during the Ukraine War, even before Ukraine did their failure invasion into the Kursk area. China though? I think they would be a lot more willing to use nukes than Putin is. I think that if Taiwan kicks off we would be a lot closer to a nuclear war than the current situation in Ukraine. 

Either way, it's disgusting that I even have to write about this. Biden's foreign policy was just terrible and his failures were predictable. And it wasn't just him, the main reason I voted for Trump back in 2016 was because I knew that she would have started the Ukraine war much earlier. 

Houthis make a deal with Russia and China for transit in the Red Sea.

 

Houthis in Yemen. Politico/AFP. 

The Houthis of Yemen have made a deal with Russia and China for safe transit in the Red Sea. Politico. In return, China and Russia will provide diplomatic support for the de facto leaders of Yemen. This presumably includes providing veto cover against UN resolutions against the Houthis. Negotiations between the Houthis and China and Russia have been ongoing since last year. The Houthis have largely closed the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to shipping and US efforts to stop missile and drone attacks on shipping has not succeeded. Airstrikes against the Houthis have been attempted but have so far failed to stop the attacks on shipping. 

My Comment:

This is a diplomatic coup for Russia and China. Not only are they going to be able to get an economic advantage over everyone else in the region, they are also strengthening ties to the de facto government of Yemen, the Houthis, who could prove useful allies to them in the future. 

Who would have thought diplomacy could be useful? The US certainly doesn't think so. Instead we have tried to bomb the Houthis into submission, and it hasn't seemed to have accomplished anything. The Houthis are still launching drones and missiles and they have hit even more ships. It's only a matter of time before another one sinks or someone else gets killed. 

And it doesn't seem like China or Russia had to pay much for this deal. Indeed, they were probably inclined to block any UN resolution against the Houthis anyways, mostly just to spite the Biden administration. As it stands now they won quite a bit with this deal. 

Does that mean that Russian and Chinese flagged ships are totally safe in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden? Probably not. From what I understand the Houthis attack based on publicly available information and signals intelligence. I am sure that Russia and China will have transponders on their ship to inform the Houthis that their ships are there, but there is always a chance that the Houthis will make a mistake and hit the wrong ship. It has happened before. 

Regardless, Russia and China will have a major advantage over Europe and the United States. They will be able to ship their goods through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden saving weeks of travel and millions in costs. Their insurance rates will likely go down as well. 

As for the United States, I still think that our options are essentially nil. In order to prevent these attacks we would either have to invade Yemen or actually attempt diplomacy. The 1st isn't viable, there is no desire in the United States for a major war with Yemen and the 2nd option isn't on the table either, since Biden doesn't appear to believe in it at all. So as long as both of those things are true I think this war will continue.  

Report: China's corruption purge was due to problems with their rocket force, including missiles filled with water.

 

Chinese missiles. The WarZone.

A new report alleges that China's military purge was due to corruption in the rocket force. The WarZone. The corruption led to the firing of China's Defense Minister and many other high ranking officials in China's Rocket force. Some of the graft included filling missiles with water instead of fuel and many new missile silos having defective lids, meaning those weapons could not be used in conflict. The missiles were likely the liquid fueled DF-5 series ballistic missiles. It is possible that the water filled missiles could be due to poor maintenance, but watering down fuel is a common form of corruption worldwide. President Xi has made rooting out corruption a cornerstone of his presidency. The report says that the corruption may have affected military readiness and delayed any military action against Taiwan. 

The original report can be found on Bloomberg but it is paywalled.  

My Comment:   

There are questions if this report is even true. There are no cited sources in the Bloomberg article and that is always a red flag when it comes to news reports. Supposedly they are supporting Western intelligence agencies which is a 2nd red flag. It's also a negative story against at US competitor, which is a third red flag. 

Despite all that I think the general idea of the report is probably true. There has to be a reason why China fired and disappeared their defense minister and this would be as good as explanation as any I have heard. And Xi is focused on corruption and finding corruption in his rocket forces would be a good reason to purge a bunch of them. 

Are the specific allegations about water filled missiles and faulty missile silo lids true? It's possible. Like the article said, watering down fuel is a common corruption tactic throughout the world. And if officials are cutting corners on building new missile silos that's hardly unbelievable. 

But I also wouldn't rule out incompetence for explanations for both issues. People could just be lazy and stupid and not trying to make a buck. Never assume malice when stupidity and laziness could explain it. 

Of course each explanation would explain the purge. When you have missiles that won't fire due to being fueled with water or because the lid on the missile silo won't open, then you are more than justified in firing a bunch of people. No military can tolerate that so if the reports are true then it is no surprise that a bunch of people lost their jobs and possibly more. 

Will it effect any attack on Taiwan? Very possible. If the US is aware of this, and they are, that means they would be a lot less afraid of China's nuclear deterrent if they know that many of their ICBM's won't work. That's got to be totally unacceptable for launching a war of choice. 

I do wonder if we don't have the same problems with corruption and incompetence in our own nuclear forces. It absolutely seems like our entire government is rotten from the head on down so I wouldn't be surprised if there was some amount of graft and idiocy running in our missile programs. Indeed, given the quality of some of our weapons given to Ukraine I would not be surprised if we wouldn't face similar issues as the Chinese if a war actually came. Indeed, the only country that I would trust to not have the problem is Russia, which was probably able to discover and root out the rot when the war with Ukraine broke out... 

Does China have too many domestic problems to invade Taiwan?

 

The President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen. The Guardian/Reuters.

The President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen says that China has too many domestic problems to invade Taiwan. The Guardian. China considers Taiwan to be a rogue province and have not ruled out an invasion, though President Xi prefers to do so "peacefully".  Ing-wen said that Xi has too many internal problems, including the economy, and financial and political challenges. Intel agencies believe that China will not be ready to invade Taiwan until 2027.

My Comment:

This seems like wishful thinking from President Ing-wen, who will be leaving office soon regardless. Elections are in January and the President is term limited, so she will not be running again. Unless China invades in the next month or so, she won't be in charge when it happens.

There are two questions to answer here. Does China have the military capability to invade Taiwan? And if they do, is now the right time to do so? President Ing-wen certainly thinks the 2nd question's answer is no. But it's a moot question if China doesn't have the actual military power to invade. 

My guess is that China isn't quite ready for an invasion of Taiwan. China has never launched an amphibious invasion of this scale and it would be extremely difficult. Amphibious invasions are among the most difficult military operations period, and given that they would also have to defeat the US Navy and the navy of other allies like Japan and Australia, I don't think China is ready to pull it off. 

Will they be able to in a couple of years, or 2027 like the intel agencies predict? I am not sure. They are building up their fleet and large stockpiles of weapons, but I think it's going to be a lot rougher for them if they do decide to invade. They probably need more than what they will have even then, modern warfare is brutal. Just look at the Ukraine conflict, both Russia and Ukraine thought they were well prepared for modern warfare, and both ended up being pretty wrong. 

But I don't know if I agree that the timing is wrong for an invasion in terms of politics. Right now the United States is in the weakest position it has ever been and there is the distraction of the wars in Israel and Ukraine offering a major distractions. Our weapon supplies are low and we have had difficulty arming Taiwan. All of this could not be true by the time China is fully armed up for a conflict. 

As for China's domestics problems, I don't think their problems are any worse than anyone else. A couple of years ago when the pandemic was ravaging the country and the entire place was in lockdown, I would say it was for sure more important to deal with domestic problems than invading Taiwan. But now? 

The Chinese economy isn't doing the best, but nobody is right now. And they don't really have all that much in the way of civil unrest or potential revolutions, they have been very good at putting those down. I'm far from a China expert, so perhaps I am just missing something, but right now I don't just see it. 

And I also think that if China is having problems, a major war would be a way to deal with it. How true the political theory that countries start war to unite the country and distract against domestic problems? I am not sure, but it's certainly a trope. Given how important Taiwan is to China it may indeed unite Chinese people and could distract from China's problems or make the people more willing to deal with it, even though I think that any war with Taiwan would probably make them worse. 

Still, I am not convinced that China is actually that interested in an invasion. They are probably more interested in a political solution. All they really need is a pro-China faction to win in Taiwan and that is certainly a possibility. 

After rolling out the red carpet for President Xi of China, Joe Biden calls him a dictator.

 

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping. Reuters.

After a major state meeting with President of Xi of China where relations were improved, Joe Biden has again called Xi a "dictator". Reuters. Biden had called Xi a dictator last June and a reporter asked if he still felt the same way. Biden replied "Look, he is. He's a dictator in the sense that he's a guy who runs a country that is a communist country that's based on a form of government totally different than ours,". China responded and condemned the comments, saying they strongly opposed them. 

My Comment:

Biden is absolutely terrible at diplomacy. He had actually had a minor victory with his negotiations with China, securing the resumption of military ties, but then he made this comment, which probably undid a lot of progress he had made. It's the very definition of an own goal. 

Do I think Xi is a dictator? Kind of. In theory China has elections and they could presumably get rid of Xi if they wanted to. That hasn't really been tested and until it happens we don't know what would happen and since that is the case it can be argued that Xi is indeed a dictator. I prefer to think of him as an Emperor myself, since it's China we are talking about, but that's neither here nor there. 

Regardless it's idiotic to call Xi this when Biden is trying to improve relations with China. China is obviously not happy about it. It was a diplomatic insult and one that China isn't just going to shake off. Did it undo all the progress that was made with the talks? Time will tell, but it certainly wasn't going to help things.

I also think it's another example of Biden's senility. It seemed like he was saying whatever he thought without thinking about the consequences. I am guessing his handlers had a heart attack when he said it. If Biden wasn't a million years old I don't think he would have said it, instead he would have been more diplomatic to say the least. Or call out the reporter for asking the question. But he could have hardly handled it worse. 

It also demonstrates the difference between Biden and Trump. Trump was known for insulting people, including heads of state, but in his case he only did it before a big meeting like this. After the big meetings, like the one with Kim Jong Un that essentially froze the threat there until Biden got into office, Trump treated people diplomatically, offering praise and support. Trump would have managed this question better, and would probably have mocked the reporter for asking it. 

What is even more strange about this whole thing is the fact that Biden rolled out the red carpet for Xi. They cleaned up San Francisco, a task I didn't think was even possible, for him. They welcomed him like a conquering king, with flags and banners. They basically treated him like he was the President of the United States, not Biden. It was rather absurd and fairly disrespectful to America. 

So why treat Xi like a king and then insult him? It makes no sense. And I do think it was just Joe Biden having yet another senior moment. And I am guessing that Biden's handlers are falling over themselves to explain to China that Biden's comments were just him being a dotard and isn't official US policy. 

And if Xi really is a dictator like Biden says, why would we roll out the red carpet for him? I have no problem with meeting with foreign dictators, kings and other unsavory characters but we don't have to treat them better than we treat our own citizens. Again though, I think this was just Biden being Biden, the man is not well and should not be president. 

Taiwan is now being directly armed by the US Taxpayer...

 

Chinese warships including the frigate Yulin and the minesweeper Chibi. BBC/Getty. 

The United States is stepping up efforts to arm Taiwan and is arming the country "to the teeth". BBC. Taiwan has been given $80 million for the purchase of US weapons. However, unlike previous sales to Taiwan the US taxpayer is paying for this grant under the foreign military finance program. The move has angered China as they say it legitimatizes the claim that Taiwan is an independent state, though the US says that their "one China" policy has not changed. Taiwan has fallen behind China militarily and are also sending two battalions of troops to the United States for training, for the first time since the 1970's. Taiwan has a need for modern tanks, missiles and, especially, air defenses. Taiwan has also been shocked by the Ukraine war where it shows their artillery systems would be woefully inadequate against modern artillery. 

My Comment:

Great, another country we have to fund. We are already funding an entire war in Ukraine and we are now helping Israel in Gaza as well. At some point enough is enough and that line might be Taiwan. It will probably take billions of dollars to properly arm and train Taiwan to the point where they could actually fight off China. Money we really don't have. 

One also has to wonder where these arms are going to come from. We have shipped so many of our weapons to Ukraine there is little left in the coffers. And now we have to supply Israel as well! America's arms production can't keep up with the demand there is already, let alone if we have to fun Taiwan too. 

The biggest problem is air defenses. We have long run out of those weapons a long time ago after sending them to Ukraine. They have tried to step up production but those weapons won't be ready for a long time. And the Ukraine war has shown how overrated American air defenses are, Russia currently has air superiority over Ukraine. 

The article also made it sound like Taiwan troops are unmotivated and poorly trained. That is why they are getting trained in the United States. But the problem is the fact that American combat doctrine has been shown to be outdated in Ukraine as well. It depends on air and artillery superiority and that doesn't seem likely for Taiwan in a war with China. 

Of course, China has huge problems for any invasion or blockade of Taiwan as well. An amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be a huge problem for China, even if their military is more modern then they used to be. They would also have to find a way to deal with the US Navy which would not be easy. 

Still, if a war comes now would be the time to do it. America is distracted by two wars and major domestic problems. Many people would not even want to fight for Taiwan even though the strategic reasons there are lot more valid than in Ukraine and Israel. And the longer China waits the more troops get trained and weapons get delivered to Taiwan. 

As for me, I just wish we weren't spending tax dollars on Taiwan. I don't mind selling them weapons and possibly loaning them money, but I do not approve of us sending weapons to them directly, same with Israel. I am opposed to even selling weapons to Ukraine, but that's another issue. We just don't have the money to keep spending like this when our own people are suffering so. 

 

China and India agree to deescalate tensions over Himalayan border.

 

Presidents Xi and Modi at the BRICS summit. BBC/Getty.

China and India have agreed to deescalate tensions over the disputed Himalayan border. BBC. President Xi of China and President Modi of India met with each other on the sidelines of the BRICS summit held in South Africa. Relations between the two countries has been poor for years due to conflicting claims over their border. Both sides have agreed to pull back troops from the border and to attempt to improve relations between the two BRICS members. 

My Comment:

Not mentioned in the article that the border disputes between India and China often devolved into violence of a sort. That violence resembled medieval warfare, with soldiers from both countries beating each other with clubs, but generally didn't involve shooting. People still died and it massively increased tensions between the two sides. 

It does seem that might be a thing of the past now. Both China and India have major reasons why they should avoid any conflict with each other. China is focused on Taiwan and India has their own internal problems to deal with. And nobody wants to see a war between nuclear armed enemies like China and India. 

But I think the real cause for this is BRICS. Both China and India are all in on BRICS and are founding members of the ever expanding political and economic alliance. Both countries essentially see the alliance as a lot more important than some border dispute over what is probably fairly useless. And I think it's very likely that the other main members of the alliance were trying to make sure that this issue didn't break the union apart. It very easily could have if some conflict happened over this disputed territory. 

I don't think this issue will go away entirely, both sides are unlikely to give up their claims on the disputed territory. But I do think that some kind of formal agreement to maintain the status quo will be made soon as both countries value the BRICS alliance and have little reason to provoke a conflict with each other. 

Though this is good news for China and India, it's probably bad news for the current occupants of the White House here in the United States. The warhawks want their war with China over Taiwan and without the threat of India possibly taking advantage to take the disputed territory in the Himalayas China can properly focus on Taiwan. And they are losing a wedge issue that could have broken apart the BRICS alliance. 

It's just another example of how blunderingly bad the Biden foreign policy has been. BRICS is the biggest threat to American dominance of the world we have faced since the Warsaw Pact and it's just getting worse. Having China and India cozying on up with each other is terrible as well, though not anywhere near as bad as Russia and China doing so as well. I have said for awhile that the foreign policy mistakes made under Biden are the kind of thing that even Donald Trump would have a massive amount of trouble reversing. 

Biden administration gives Taiwan $345 million in military aid from our own stockpiles...

 

An anti-amphibious landing exercise in Taiwan. AP.

The Biden administration is giving $345 million in military aid from America's own stockpiles of weapons. AP. The weapons include MANPADS, firearms and missiles. The weapons are in addition to $19 billion in weapons sales to Taiwan, which has been complicated by shortages due to the Ukraine War. These weapons will be able to avoid backlogs as they are being drawn from America's stockpiles. America still has a "one China" policy and doesn't recognize the independence of Taiwan but has been supported militarily for some time. China, of course, condemned the move. 

My Comment:

Hardly a day goes by where the Biden administration gives millions of dollars worth of weapons to some foreign government. It was bad enough that we were doing so to Ukraine but now Taiwan as well? Is there no limit to this?

One wonders where they are going to find these weapons. Firearms shouldn't be a problem, but MANPADS? Seriously? We barely have enough of those for our own forces, let alone giving them to Taiwan. And our missile stocks are low as well. Given the high tensions and slow production rates of missiles and MANPADS, giving away even more of them seems like a terrible idea. 

I don't have a problem with selling weapons to Taiwan. If they are willing to pay that's absolutely fine and is even helpful as it helps our weapons industries. But just giving weapons away? That's something totally different. I don't understand why Taiwan is a priority over our own forces here.

It also makes me pretty nervous that the Biden administration is trying to start yet another war. China is already upset that our support for Taiwan happens in the first place. They are not going to be happy about this at all, and may even consider it a casus belli for war. My gut says that China is not ready for war yet but it certainly could happen. They consider Taiwan to be their clay and they are willing to fight for it. 

Unlike Ukraine at least, we do have a strategic interest in Taiwan. They are a major source of computer chips that we need for just about everything these days. And I am a lot more sympathetic to the Taiwanese people than I would ever be to the the Ukrainians. But I do think we should actually have a discussion if going to war with China, a war that we could very well lose or have it expand into a nuclear exchange, is actually worth it.   

China is reportedly sending body armor and drones to Russia for use in Ukraine.

 

Chinese body armor. Politico. 

China is reportedly sending large numbers of body armor, drones and other "duel use" technology to Russia for use in the Ukraine War. Politico. Documents secured by Politico show large orders of body armor being sent to Russia, with multiple orders of 100,000 vests and helmets, along with large orders of ceramics that can be used in plate carriers. Other orders include drones, which can be used for surveillance or even dropping grenades and thermal optics. Duel use technology is defined as tech that can be used for both peaceful and military purposes and it is a way how China evades Western sanctions for sending military technology to Russia. China has also sent much of the same duel use technology to Ukraine but they are now sending less to Ukraine then they do to Russia. Some of the companies that are being used to send duel use technology may be shell companies set up by Russia. 

My Comment:

Very interesting. China is supporting Russia in the war in Ukraine, but doing it in a way with plausible deniability. They aren't giving them weapons, so far, but they are giving them some extremely useful technology including armor, drones and thermal optics. 

This also explains why Russian troops are now a lot better equipped then they were at the start of the war. I have heard that their body armor is a lot better now. If the Chinese are sending these huge orders of vests and helmets that would explain it. 

The drones and thermal optics are very useful to. Drone warfare has been huge in Ukraine and these drones sent by China would be very useful. And it's not hard to convert drones into being used in combat. ISIS showed how you could convert a commercially available drone into either a suicide drones or something that can drop grenades and bombs. And the advantages of thermal optics is pretty obvious. 

My main question is what is the quality of this stuff? Chinese manufacturing has a reputation of making chintzy crap. The idea of wearing body armor made in China is more than a little concerning to me. If the reports of the body armor being decent is true then this is a moot point but still, it would be something to worry about if I was a Russian soldier. 

To be fair to China, they have been selling to Ukraine as well. They have pulled back on doing so but I think that has more to do with Ukraine running out of money rather than any major shift in support for Russia. Ukraine probably doesn't have the cash to buy these dual use items from China and I doubt China would accept their credit if they think they are going to lose the war. 

Joe Biden plays down the fact that he called Chinese President Xi a "dictator".

 

Joe Biden. Politico/AP.

Joe Biden has attempted to play down the fact that he called Chinese President Xi a "dictator". Politico. Biden made the remarks on Tuesday which infuriated China. Biden was talking about this springs balloon incident, saying that Xi didn't know about it, also adding that "dictators" don't like it when they don't know things. Biden said that he doubted the remarks would have any real consequence and that he was planning to meet with Xi soon. Biden's remarks angered China enough that they sent an official protest and summoned America's ambassador with China. 

My Comment:

This was a huge verbal gaffe by Joe Biden and the fact that the news is still covering it two days after it happened is a big deal. It was not the right thing to say and he did it at one of the worst possible times. 

Is Joe Biden right? Is President Xi a dictator? Not really. China is a communist country but I don't think they really count as a dictatorship. In theory Xi could be removed by his party which isn't something you could say about someone like Kim Jong Un in North Korea, who is indeed a dictator. China isn't really a free country, but people are allowed to vote and could in theory change their system. I've been and will continue to be extremely critical of China and its communist government but I don't know if I would ever describe it as a dictatorship or Xi as a dictator. 

And it's not like Biden has any room to criticize anyone. He may call people like Xi and Putin dictators, but I really don't see any difference between them and him. Biden arrests his political opponents, is trying to roll back the rights of Americans and took office under extremely questionable circumstances to say the least. 

But regardless of it being true it was an idiotic thing to say. There is some important context that the Politico article didn't mention and it's the fact that Secretary of State Antony Blinken was just in China. That meeting was designed to try and improve relations with China and it was mostly a failure. But the little diplomatic accomplishments that were gained there were immediately ruined by Biden's remarks. 

Can you imagine what Blinken was thinking? He worked hard to get anything from the Chinese at all and then Biden goes and calls Xi a dictator, ruining anything and everything he accomplished. It I didn't think Blinken deserved it I would almost feel bad for him. 

If there is any possible out for Biden here it's the fact that China knows Biden is senile and not really in control of what he says anymore. China is too polite to mention the fact that Biden is senile but they certainly know it. They might forgive Biden for that.

Regardless, it just shows how different and ineffective Biden is at foreign policy than Donald Trump was. Trump would insult countries leaders in public but would then say nice things about them once it was clear that diplomacy could take place. Biden is doing the opposite, trying diplomacy and then undermining it for no real reason. 

Normally this would be nothing but a funny footnote of Biden's terrible presidency. But we can't really afford bad relations with China anymore. We aren't prepared for a war with them at all, and given how much they want Taiwan and how bad relations are with them it's possible we might see that war long before we are ready for it. And since we have given up much of our weapons reserves to Ukraine it might be a massive mistake... 

China's defense minster says a war between China and the United States would be an "unbearable disaster".

 

Chinese Defense Minster General Li Shangfu. Fox News/AP.

China's Defense Minster General Li Shangfu said that a war between China and the United States would be an "unbearable disaster". Fox News. Li said that relations between the two countries are at an all time low and that historically the two countries have benefited from cooperation. The remarks happen after two major military incidents. Two weeks ago a Chinese J-16 almost collided with an American reconnaissance plane and yesterday a Chinese warship intercepted and also almost collided with an American destroyer and a Canadian frigate. Li is personally under American sanctions due to a 2018 weapons purchase from Russia. 

My Comment:

General Li is correct, relations between America and China are terrible right now and war would be an absolute disaster for both sides, regardless of who would win. It's telling that Li claims that relations are worse now than at any other time in the history of both countries, considering that American and Chinese troops were killing each other in large numbers back in the Korean War. Perhaps it was an exaggeration, but it is certainly as bad as our relations have been in the modern era.

Any war between China and the United States would be an economic disaster for either, considering how interlinked our economies are. The US has tried to move away from China but those efforts are nowhere near complete and frankly, we need them. China might do slightly better but losing their best customer (along with the US allies) would not be good for them either. 

And that's ignoring the combat! A war between China and the United States would mostly be a naval one and I am guessing the fleets for both sides would be largely destroyed. China actually has a larger navy that the United States now, though our ships are supposedly better. We certainly have a carrier advantage, though that might be countered by China's long range anti-ship missiles. 

Of course, that's assuming that the war doesn't go nuclear. That's certainly a possibility and if it happens both countries would be devastated. I don't think either side would be completely destroyed and humanity itself would continue but it would be the de facto end of both civilizations.

Even if we avoid a nuclear war with China it's very possible that we would lose a war against them. They would have the home field advantage and the Ukraine war has exposed how weak our logistics and production systems are these days. And Americans are absolutely sick and tired of war and I don't think they would support another major war. 

The bad relations with China is a too way street. China has long abused the United States  with their theft of intellectual property and unfair trade practices. And they continue to threaten Taiwan, which wants nothing to do with being ruled by China. Plus, they are fully allied with Russia now, who is, inexplicably, America's foreign policy focus right now. 

Much of it is on Joe Biden. His supporters would likely want to blame Trump since he confronted China on trade, but at least Trump had a good personal relationship with President Xi. Biden doesn't have a good relationship with anyone, let alone Xi and has stuffed his administration full of neocons who want a war with anyone. If they can't get their war with Russia they might settle with one with China...

The US is tracking another balloon flying near Hawaii.

 

The original spy balloon. Fox News/AP.

The United States Defense Department is tracking another unidentified balloon, this time flying near Hawaii. Fox News. The balloon was discovered on April 28th and it is flying at 36,000 feet. Ownership of the balloon is unknown and it is unclear if it is drifting or controlled. The balloon has not flown over sensitive areas in Hawaii and does not currently pose a threat to aviation or civilians on the ground. The balloon will continue to be tracked and could be shot down if it poses a threat. The incident happens after the Chinese spy balloon incident and the subsequent shoot down of three additional objects. 

My Comment:

The Chinese spy balloon story disappeared very quickly didn't it? It went from the biggest story in the world to an afterthought and I'm even surprised that this story now is getting attention. It is crazy how fast the news moves these days. 

I think the story largely died because of the incidents with the three additional objects. It is theorized that one of those objects was launched by a private club and it was probably embarrassing that Biden shot down a random balloon. The original incident was embarrassing for the Biden administration as well since he waited so long to shoot the thing down. 

So is this balloon another spy balloon? Is it another hobbyist balloon? A weather balloon? Some kind of UFO? Right now we don't know. Indeed, it's probably really hard to tell. If we had pictures and those pictures matched the original spy balloon I would say it's likely another spy balloon, but that doesn't appear to be the case. 

My guess is that it's either a weather balloon or a hobbyist balloon. So far it hasn't gone near any military installations. There are certainly things worth monitoring in Hawaii. Pearl Harbor is still a major naval base and there are other things there worth looking at for the Chinese. Since it didn't fly over those things my guess is that it's not a military balloon. 

Which means it will be hilarious of the United states shoots it down again. So far the only kills the F-22 has are balloons so why not up the kill count? Waste a huge amount of money on blowing up some hobbyist's balloon. We have apparently done it before, why not do it again?

If it is a spy balloon I would support shooting it down just on principle. China was pretty clearly testing us with the last balloon launch and they likely gathered a quite of bit of data from our military bases. It would be in our interests to not allow that to happen again. But I don't think that should happen until we actually identify what this balloon is. 

China will send a peace delegation to Ukraine in an effort to end the war.

 

President Xi Jinping and President  Volodymyr Zelenskyy. AP.

China will send a peace delegation to Ukraine in an effort to finally end the war between Ukraine and Russia. AP. China will also send delegations to other powers in the region but it is unclear if they will include Russia. China is trying to portray themselves as a neutral party between Russia and Ukraine and may have a chance to negotiate a peace deal. China appears to be concerned about heighten nuclear tensions, as Russia moves nuclear weapons in to Belarus. China released a statement calling for calm and saying that negotiation is the only way out of the war. 

My Comment:

China is actually well positioned to end the war in Ukraine. Unlike a lot of other parties they have good relations with both Ukraine and Russia. There aren't a whole lot of countries left that can say that. And there aren't too many countries that are even trying to end the war. 

Normally the Western world would be the ones that try to end a war but since this is a proxy war between Russia and NATO, there aren't any countries that are even trying. Plus, Russia has absolutely no reason to trust the west at this point. They would rightly point out that the west did not stay true to the Mink II agreement that was supposed to end the civil war in the first place. 

I do think that China is right to try and end the war. Things are not going well in terms of tensions. The west seems totally unhinged right now and I could see Biden blundering into a nuclear war. The fact that Russia is sending nukes into Belarus is a fairly major escalation. 

What is worse is that one of the Pentagon leaks said that the US had to talk Ukraine out of a major strike on Moscow on the year one anniversary of the war. Such a strike would have been a massive escalation and may have spiraled out of control quickly. China of course knows about that and have a very good reason to avoid an European nuclear war. 

I do think that both sides have a reason to want the war to end, though it might be Russia that is the sticking point. They were expecting an easy war but instead have gotten NATO in a very bad position and are on the verge of bankrupting the alliance. The problem is that they too are at a high risk of getting destroyed in a nuclear conflict if things spiral out of control. 

Ukraine's main problem is that the West too does not want to end the war. Even if Ukraine could get a decent deal at this point they would have to worry about NATO rejecting it. There are many warmongers in the Pentagon that don't seem to realize they aren't winning and are willing to defend Ukraine down to the last Ukrainian and last American. Hopefully Ukraine rejects these people and makes a deal. 

France's Emmanuel Macron says Europe needs to avoid following the United States into war with China and move away from the US dollar.

 

President Xi of China (right) and Emmanuel Macron of France. Politico/AFP.

The President of France, Emmanuel Macron, says that Europe needs to forge their own path on the Taiwan issue and move away from the US dollar. Politico. Macron said that Europe needed to be a "third superpower" and needed "strategic autonomy". Macron also said that Europe risked getting dragged into conflicts that are not theirs. He also warned against accelerating conflict in Taiwan by following the lead of China or the United States. Macron had just visited President Xi and contrasted the US approach to Taiwan. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced he was visiting Taiwan recently. More importantly, Macron said that overdependence on the US dollar could reduce Europe to mere vassals if a major war were to break out.

My Comment:

First of all, it's rather rich of Macron to be making these statements considering the situation. France would not be the leader of a supposed third superpower, especially considering the fact that he can't keep his home in order. France has been rioting and protesting for weeks now due to his own end run around his legislature.  

That being said, I do think that he has a point. A war between the United States and China over Taiwan would not be something Europe should get involved in. They would have nothing to gain and a whole lot to lose if they got involved in the war. Keeping out of it would mean they could play both sides and wouldn't have to worry about their own military power degraded. 

Of course France might not have much of a choice. They are obligated by NATO treaties to defend America if China attacks them. It wouldn't count if America got into a war of choice with China but that might not be how things go down. If China shoots first then France might be forced to join the war. And if that happens and they refuse? Well, NATO would be destroyed which means there would be a lot less deterrence against Russia. 

There is something to be said for France taking a middle route between China and the United States. Both are taking a hardline stance, which is not something that prevents wars. Doing so has a small chance of providing a solution that all sides can live with. The chances are not good but it's possible. 

I do think that Politico was burying the lede a bit. France moving away from the US dollar is a huge deal for the United States. Already many other countries are moving away from the dollar for oil purchases and it could have a major effect on the American economy. Doing so means we might have difficulty in getting new loans and paying down our debt, which means we would have to print money instead. That could lead to hyper inflation. The fact that France is discussing this as well does not bode well... 

US provided intel that helped India win a border clash with China...

 

A convoy of Indian troops near Tawang. US News & World Report/AFP.

The United States provided intel that helped India win a border clash in China back in 2022. US News & World Report. The United States provided real time intelligence to India for the first time ever including live satellite information. This allowed India respond to the incursion and push back the Chinese without any deaths. The border clashes between China and India usually involve clubs and Tasers and not firearms. China was aware of the assistance and was supposedly furious about the help India got. India and the United States relationship has improved  but the relationship is not that close, with China being one of the issues they agree on. 

My Comment:

India's place in the new global structure is still in flux. On the one hand they are regularly having border disputes with China and now we know they are getting active support from the United States. On the other, their relationship with Russia is quite good and it will be interesting which side India ends up going with. 

China was probably very upset about this. The hilariously low grade warfare that happens on the border of India and China was mostly a distraction, but I can't see how China won't see this as a major escalation. Drawing in another country to the border disputes does not seem like a thing that will calm things down. 

It could also lead to major escalations. If China realizes that their units armed with clubs and tasers are going to be intercepted by Indians with satellite support, they may decide they need a better advantage and the gentleman's agreement they have to leave the firearms at home might end up by the wayside. This could lead to actual battles instead of the beatdowns they have now. 

Still, I think that is probably unlikely. China has a lot else going on right now, including their own ambitions in Taiwan. They do want these disputed territories from India but I don't think they are willing to risk a nuclear war with India over it. These border clashes are mostly saber rattling to keep India on their toes, not a serious attempt at taking the territory away from India. 

As for India, I think they are pretty foolish for accepting US help. Right now the United States is in a decline and led by a senile fool and India is not really on their radar. India would have to compete with Ukraine for assistance and there is no guarantee they would get the assistance again...  

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping meet in Russia

 

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. The Guardian/AP.

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have had a historic meeting over Ukraine. The Guardian. Xi and Putin said they were ready to stand guard over the world order. President Xi is expected to try to play the role of peacekeeper and attempt to end the war in Ukraine. Putin said he was ready to discuss the 12 point peace plan that China put forth recently. The talks were informal today but will be formal talks tomorrow. The United States predictably blasted the meeting saying they oppose a peace deal that doesn't end with a total Russian withdrawal. 

My Comment:

If President Xi can pull this off it will be one of the biggest diplomatic coups China has ever done. Ending the war would be undoubtedly be a major win for China and would position them as a peacemaker. It would give them a large amount of power and shake up the world order. 

And it's not like Xi and his team can't pull it off. He recently warmed relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and did it in a way that surprised everyone. Indeed, I didn't think there was anything that could get them back on speaking terms. 

After all Saudi Arabia and Iran were basically at war already. The proxy war in Yemen was an extreme fight and one that involved massive drone strikes and ballistic missiles. China somehow managed to get these two sides to talk again despite the huge casualties they had in the Yemen conflict. And now the chances of a major Middle East war are dramatically lower. 

I think both Russia and Ukraine have a major reason to consider peace. Both sides have lost huge numbers of troops and have suffered major economic damage due to the war. Russia has gotten considerably less damage than Ukraine, but it's still no small thing. 

Ukraine should consider peace because of the obvious, they are losing the war. The only reason they are able to continue the fight is because of foreign aid, which could be cut off at anytime. They have had almost three entire armies worth of equipment destroyed and they are down to unwilling draftees and old men on the front lines. They aren't going to be in a better position then they are now. 

As for Russia, it's clear that there won't be a quick solution to this war. Ukraine is losing but they will be doing it for a long time. It's possible there will be a quick collapse but I don't think it is something they can count on. Ending the war now would stop them from losing more troops and weapons. 

Both Russia and China would get a bonus out of a peace settlement. They would utterly humiliate the Biden administration, who has made Ukraine its defining issue. It would probably disrupt the dominance that the United States has enjoyed since World War II and would make us look incompetent at best and utterly deranged at worse. Imagine people having problems with peace talks, it's absurd. 

The worst part is that Biden's wounds here are entirely self inflicted. America could have played the role of peacekeeper from the start and done everything they could to reach a negotiated settlement. Instead they torpedoed the peace process and made the war last a lot longer then it had too. 

My fear is that they will do the same thing again. Even if Zelenskyy is interested in a peace deal it would be trivial for the powers that be to remove him. Though I certainly wouldn't mourn his death, he would likely be replaced by someone even more resolved to continue the war. Given that Biden's administration has said Russia losing in Ukraine was an existential interest, I could see this happening...  

Department of Energy now concludes that the Coronavirus pandemic was a lab leak from Wuhan China

 

The Wuhan Institute of Virology. Fox News. 

The Department of Energy now concludes that the Coronavirus pandemic was a lab leak from Wuhan China. Fox News. The Energy Department was previously neutral but has joined the FBI in saying that the pandemic was a lab leak. The information was obtained from a top secret report that was provided to congress. The theory was dismissed as a "conspiracy theory" during the early stages of the pandemic. Republicans in congress blasted the report, which first appeared in the Wall Street Journal. Other government agencies disagree that the lab was the source of the virus. 

My Comment:

I'm kind of surprised that this is making the news again. I had generally considered that the lab-leak theory is the default position for most people now. It's only not mentioned for the same reason that we don't recognize that Taiwan is an independent country. Because if we do we will upset China and nobody has the courage to do that. 

I never thought any other theory was that credible in the first place. The coronavirus that caused the pandemic was evolved from a virus only found in bats that live thousands of miles from Wuhan, where the pandemic started. But there were several research labs in Wuhan that were a very likely source. And given China's low safety standards it would not be a surprise if it had happened that way. 

Though Republicans are making noise about punishing China I know that nothing much will happen. Even if 100% irrevocable proof was provided China would not face any kind of retribution for what they did. There is zero energy in the Biden White House for dealing with China as they are focused on Ukraine to the exclusion of all other topics. 

What congress should do is to make sure that nothing like this ever happens again and they could do that by banning gain of function research on new viruses. The pandemic would have never have happened if they hadn't been allowed to do this. Of course, America had already banned gain of function, which is why the research was outsourced to China in the first place. We know that Congress isn't going to do anything to China so they should fix whatever loophole allowed this to happen in the first place. 

As for the pandemic itself, it has largely been forgotten. I know that I have zero concern about catching the virus at this point since it isn't that much worse than a bad cold or a weak flu now for the vast majority of people. Other than people questioning who is responsible for this it's largely a non-issue now.