US intelligence agencies say that the Saudi Arabia oil attack was launched from Iran.

Smoke rises from the damaged oil station. NBC News/Reuters.

US intelligence agencies say that Saudi Arabia oil attack was launched from Iran near the border with Iraq. NBC News. According to NBC's sources, Iran launched cruise missiles from at least one site in Iran. The attack knocked out 5% of global oil production which is around 5 million barrels a day. The Saudis also said there was evidence that Iranian weapons were used in the attacks. Iran has officially denied responsibility for the attacks and Yemen's Houthi Rebels have taken credit for it. President Trump has not decided what his response will be as he is waiting for more evidence of responsibility but also says he does not want war. 

My Comment:

Just a quick update to a recent post. In that post I said that the Houthi's are likely responsible for the attack. However the US government says something else. If cruise missiles were used in the attack that pretty much rules out the Houthis. Though they are extremely well armed for a militia, they have ballistic missiles for crying out loud, but they don't have cruise missiles. 

However, US intelligence has been very wrong before. They had insisted, for example, that the Iraqi's had an active chemical weapons program. They did have a few old and obsolete weapons hidden in the desert but did not have an active program. It's very possible that they are wrong here again. 

President Trump seems to realize this and is downplaying threats of war. He was rock solid proof that the Iranians are responsible for this attack and even if it is found that they were responsible it sounds like he doesn't want to order strikes. My guess is that if it is up to him there won't be a war. 

However, it might not be up to him. I don't know if the Saudis would act without US support but it is a possibility. This was a major blow to their economy and they almost certainly want revenge. Iran and Saudi Arabia have been locked into a proxy war with each other in Yemen for quite some time now and the Iranian proxies there have launched multiple attacks against the country. Saudi Arabia may finally reach the end of their patience. 

The Iranians might have their own thoughts about the issue as well. It seems clear that they don't want peace. They won't talk to President Trump and if they did launch this attack they are escalating quickly. It's very possible they could launch follow up attacks which would draw a response. 

Why would the Iranians want to do this? Because sanctions are destroying their economy. The Iranians can't care for their people and they fear that they may revolt. If they do the leadership will likely be killed. With the stakes that high they might think a limited war against the Saudis would be a better choice. 

Still, I think that the status quo is the most likely outcome. President Trump doesn't want war and I don't think the Saudis want war either. My guess is that this attack will go unpunished. I still say that war is unlikely and even if there is any military action it will be extremely limited in nature.