Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. Congressional photo.
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has launched an impeachment inquiry over the Ukraine story. The Hill. Pelosi argues that President Trump's conversation with Ukraine's President over the Joe Biden corruption scandal was impeachment worthy. A "whistle-blower", who did not review the conversation, has been blocked from testifying. The move is hugely controversial and risky for the Demcorats as impeachment is unpopular among Republicans and independents. The move is largely one of optics as there will be little change in day to day operations.
As for President Trump, he is working quickly to counter the claims made by Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats. He will release the IG report and the "whistle-blower" complaint by the end of the week. He had already said that the transcript between himself and President Zelensky would be released tomorrow. Trump claims that the real scandal is that Joe Biden threatened Ukraine to fire a prosecutor who was investigating his son who was involved in an Ukrainian energy company. Biden is on video confirming he did indeed threaten to withdraw money if they didn't fire the prosecutor.
My Comment:
The above videos show the Joe Biden admission that he threatened to withdraw $1 billion in aid if he didn't fire the prosecutor in the Ukraine case. The top video is the primary source from the CFR, and the bottom is the moment itself. I put up both videos in case the 2nd one gets a copyright claim or something, plus the CFR closed comments making it difficult to find the specific moment. Either way, Biden's words are clear, he threatened to withdraw money from Ukraine.
Somehow this scandal was turned into the media into an anti-Trump story. Their theory is that President Trump threatened Ukrainian President Zelensky the same way that Biden did. Even if that was true, and there is no evidence that it is, why is it wrong for Trump to do so but not for Joe Biden? There is no consistency here whatsoever.
However, there is also no evidence that President Trump did anything wrong. There is no evidence of a quid-pro-quo with Ukraine. Trump's going to release the transcript, the IG report and the whistle blower complaint and if there as anything at all incriminating there he wouldn't. That means that this whole scandal is a nothing burger. Furthermore, the whistle blower did not actually observe the phone call or review the transcript directly. The whole thing is based on nothing but hearsay.
So why did Pelosi make this announcement? It seems utterly insane. The polling I have seen shows little support for impeachment, with what little support there is largely among Democrats. And previous impeachment attempts have failed miserably. Bill Clinton was famously impeached for perjury and his approval rating rose. It massively hurt the GOP back then just like this will hurt the Democrats as well.
Furthermore, the case for impeachment is very unclear. It's not illegal to ask another country to investigate a crime, especially if that crime involves corruption involving American politicians. A quid-pro-quo might be more objectionable but I don't think it's illegal unless it involves money changing hands between the major players. There isn't even a hint of that happening here.
And even if the scandal doesn't blow up tomorrow when the transcript is released, there is little chance of anything happening. All Pelosi has done is set up an inquiry, which is a first step, but it's still a very long way from an actual impeachment in the Senate. And there is no way that Pelosi will get the 67 votes she needs to get actually remove Trump. Not to mention the fact that actually "winning" would likely lead to a civil war.
That being said, I think this is all internal Democrat politics and only involves President Trump tangentially. Pelosi knows that impeachment is a horrible move for the Democrats but she is under immense pressure from the progressive members of the party. "The Squad" has been extremely vocal about impeachment and are furious with Pelosi anyways. This seems like an effort to placate those voices without actually doing anything.
Joe Biden's 2020 race might be involved as well. Though I still say that Biden has the best chance of beating President Trump (ie almost zero), he's a scandal ridden man who is a gaffe machine. But more importantly progressive hate him. They want him to go down and they know that Ukraine scandal will likely sink him. The fact that it also damages President Trump is just a bonus to them.
I think that President Trump played this well. He made the Democrats commit to something without really having all that much in the way of information. As of this writing only he knows he and Zelensky know what they talked about and it seems like he made an elaborate trap for the Democrats. If the transcript blows this scandal up he's golden.
He's probably going to win in 2020 on this issue alone, even if he did something wrong. People are sick and tired of the Democrats constantly attacking President Trump. The only reprieve we have had since he started to run is when the focused on Brett Kavanaugh and the two days where the media loved him after he bombed Syria. Only hardcore Democrats even care anymore and the rest of us are just so very tired with the whole thing. Especially since we've already did the same song and dance with the Russia scandal. That plot failed horribly just like this one will as well.
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