Tuesday, September 10, 2019

John Bolton fired as National Security Adviser.

John Bolton during a visit to London. Reuters. 

President Trump has fired National Security Adviser John Bolton. Reuters. Bolton was always a strange fit for the President as Bolton is a war hawk while President Trump campaigned on avoiding new conflicts. Bolton's main accomplishment was America pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal. However, President Trump often resisted his more hawkish advice including canceling air strikes against Iran after they shot down an American drone. Bolton also disagreed with peace meetings with countries like North Korea, Iran and Russia. Though Bolton has soften somewhat compared to his days serving President Bush, he was still a bad fit for the Trump administration. 

My Comment:
I always thought that hiring John Bolton was a rather baffling mistake by President Trump. He obviously wasn't on the same page as President Trump when it came to foreign policy. Bolton is a notorious war-hawk and I think even President Trump said once that Bolton hadn't met a war he hadn't liked (I haven't been able to find a source on that quote so it might be fake, but it's a fair representation of the man regardless.)

I don't think he was a particularly good adviser either. There is an argument to be made for an aggressive foreign policy but the track record since 9/11 hadn't been great. Regime change has been an absolute disaster for America and the world. The Iraq war succeeded in getting rid of Saddam Hussein but failed in almost every other metric. Libya was also a failure and Afghanistan is the war that never seems to end. We will be suffering from the consequences of neocon foreign policy for generations and by "we" I don't just mean America. 

Bolton, had he gotten his way, probably would have gotten us into at least one more war. Had Trump listened to his advice and launched an attack at Iran, there would have been retaliation which could have ended with a full scale war. And his attempts at brinkmanship with North Korea, Russia and Venezuela didn't exactly help things either. Thankfully, Trump mostly ignored his advice and did his own thing.

This result was fairly predictable which begs the question as to why President Donald Trump hired him in the first place? I always thought he was a compromise candidate. One that the few remaining neocons could rally around and be brought on board with President Trump. It seemed to work as neocons like Ben Shapiro and Mitt Romney praised Bolton but since his firing they are upset. 

Trump's base is going to be happy though. One of the most widely praised things about President Trump is the fact that he has avoided starting any new wars since he became President. He has even attempted to end the wars in Afghanistan and North Korea, though he hasn't pulled it off yet. 

The appointment of John Bolton caused a minor panic, similar to the one that happened after Trump briefly bombed the Syrian regime, among his foreign policy fans. His firing will be met with support and relief. Bolton was a bad fit for President Trump on one his supporters will scratch their heads at for a long time. 

The question now is who replaces him? I have heard rumors, none of which seem likely. Some are saying that H.R. McMaster is a candidate. McMaster resigned as National Security Adviser but news outlets are reporting that Trump talked to him about Bolton. McMaster had a lot of issues with former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, but with Mattis gone there could be an opening for him.

Other names that have been floated seem even less likely. One is Trump's first National Security Adviser, Michael Flynn. Flynn was all on board the Trump agenda but was forced out due to an intelligence operation against him. That operation was likely illegal and people will probably go to prison for it, but I doubt that leaves him an opening after how everything went down. 

The craziest idea I have heard is Democratic Representative and presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard. Though Gabbard and Trump have very little in terms of policy agreements, the are somewhat similar on foreign policy. This seems like somebody's idea of a joke though as Gabbard has been very critical of Trump and even said that he was acting as al-Qaeda's air force in Syria. I can't see her as a serious candidate. My guess is that it will be none of these candidates that have been floated today.

No matter who replaces him, I think he or she will be an improvement over John Bolton. I think Bolton was from a different generation of advisers who's time is long over. He had no real place in the modern world after reality proved again and again that his ideas were wrong. I'm not sad to see him go. 

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