ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi calls for attacks on prison and detention camps.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. AFP.

ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has released new audio urging surviving ISIS members to attack prison and detention camps holding ISIS prisoners. AFP. Al-Baghdadi said  ISIS fighters should "do your utmost to rescue your brothers and sisters and break down the walls that imprison them." Thousands of ISIS fighters are held in prisons in Syria and Iraq while their families are held in large detention camps. The Kurds alone have 12,000 foreigners in their camps, while Iraq may have as many as 20,000 ISIS prisoners, with 500 foreigners scheduled for execution. The conditions in the camps are not good and there are rumors that ISIS has control of some of them. 

My Comment:

I'm honestly surprised that al-Baghdadi is still alive. He has to be the most wanted person in the world right now and he must have amazing operational security in order to avoid eating a missile strike. His recent message mirrors one from al-Qaeda's leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who also called for new attacks. 

Is his plan a good one? Possibly. The estimated 32,000 ISIS imprisoned fighters in Syria and Iraq would make a good core for a new army of terrorists. If ISIS could find a way to release them it would be a boon for their them, and would again make them a major fighting force.

There are of course problems with that. First of all, these are all men that surrendered when they realized that the war was lost. Even if they were released there is not guarantee that they would rejoin ISIS. They might not have much of a choice as ISIS is pretty notorious for executing fighters accused of cowardice. 

Second of all, I don't know where ISIS would get the fighters to raid a prison and rescue fighters. ISIS no longer has much of an army and if they were to mass for an attack on one they would likely be destroyed. Though these prisons don't have the best security, I can't see them overpowering all the guards. 

However, it seems as though the Kurdish prisons are exceptionally vulnerable. They haven't the troops to provide decent security for many of their camps and a determined force could probably liberate fighters. 

That being said, even if they did manage to pull off a successful prison raid, the logistics would be a major problem. They wouldn't have the cash and supplies to feed, house and arm the thousands of fighters they would liberate. It's a plan I guess but it's not one I think will work out for ISIS. They might be better off if it worked but the payout isn't great and the chance of success isn't really worth the risk.