President Trump is making a play for New Mexico.

President Donald Trump. Politico/AP.

President Trump is making a play for New Mexico, starting with a rally in Rio Rancho. Politico. A Republican presidential candidate hasn't won New Mexico since 1992, but the President believes that it's five electoral votes are up for grabs. New Mexico is full of Hispanics which could pose a problem for Trump, but he had success in registering new voters in El Paso Texas which also has a Hispanic population. Trump's campaign believes that Trump's immigration policies will be popular with legal Hispanics and will be a counter to Democrats lurch left on social issues. There is also a senate seat up for grabs as well. The President has a huge war chest and has enough money to spend on non-traditional swing states including New Mexico, Maine, Minnesota, Virginia and Colorado.

My Comment:

That would have been a good article from Politico if they hadn't quoted a bunch of anti-Trump weirdos. I know the Libertarian Party is strong in New Mexico but that doesn't mean that you have to quote the head of the party calling Trump a racist. Hugely biased. 

As for the President's strategy, I think it might be a good idea. I think some non-swing states are just that way because nobody tried to peel them away. Trump was successful in doing this in 2020 with the "blue wall" states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Hillary Clinton ignored my state of Wisconsin, Trump was here several times and managed to pull out an upset win here. 

But is New Mexico the best bet? I am not so sure. I personally think that both Minnesota and Maine are better choices. Minnesota barely went to Clinton and Maine actually has split delegate system and Trump won the 2nd congressional district. Clinton won the 1st and the state but neither of those things are a sure thing in 2020. I think President Trump has a much better chance of winning either of those states over New Mexico.

Could he win New Mexico too though? New Mexico went for Hillary Clinton by 8 points. President Trump also has to face a strong libertarian party there. Famous pothead and man confused about Aleppo, Gary Johnson, got 9 points. It seems like a very steep hill to climb.

On the other hand, the GOP hasn't really tried to win in New Mexico in a very long time. Both Romney and McCain pretty much ignored the state. I think there are a lot of conservatives there that have pretty much given up and if President Trump and the GOP work to try and get people registered they could make a difference. 

Critically, President Trump and the GOP has a huge warchest. President Trump alone has $200 million available to him and that's enough money to spend pretty much anywhere. It probably doesn't pay to do so in California, Illinois or New York, but for semi-swing states like New Mexico there isn't really too much of a downside. Plus planning rallies and ads could cause people to donate, helping nationally even if it doesn't get New Mexico's 5 electoral votes. 

Is there a downside here? Possibly. All President Trump needs to win in 2020 is defend the states and districts he already won. If he focuses too much on these states he might not defend other critical swing states like Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. I think that President Trump has enough money and energy to do both but it is something to consider.

Finally, I think that even if New Mexico isn't a likely victory, targeting has other benefits as well. It will force a response from the Democrats, who are famously broke in 2020. They don't have much money to spend and if Trump campaigns hard in New Mexico they will have to either defend the state, spending money that could be better spend on true swing states, or ignore the state and risk losing it. Even it doesn't result in a 5 vote swing, it will have a major effect on the race.