Earthquake and major Tsunami kills at least 832 people, with more casualties expected, in Indonesia.

The destruction left in the wake of the Tsunami. BBC/EPA.

A 7.5 earthquake and tsunami in Indonesia has killed at least 832 people with more casualties expected. BBC. The powerful quake generated a tsunami that had 20 feet waves. The city of Palu, population 335,000, was hit hard with more casualties expected and the nearby town of Donggala has yet to be contacted. 1.6 million people have been effected by the disaster with many more casualties expected, perhaps in the thousands. The death toll was made worse due to the fact that many people were near the beach due to a festival. 

An aerial view  of the Palu and Donggala area. BBC/BMKG.

My Comment:

Looks like a major disaster in Indonesia. The Tsunami looks like it killed a lot more than the 832 people that have been reported dead already. Many people are missing and there has been no contact with Donggala. Donggala is a smaller town but it's possible that it was wiped out. With no air access and with ground routes likely blocked or destroyed, it may take some time before we know what happened there. 

Take a look at the aerial photo I posted above. It may explain why this tsunami was so deadly. Palu is at the end of a bay and that bay may have acted like a funnel to focus the energy of the Tsunami. That very may well have made things much worse. If that's the case it may be that the town of Donggala was spared. 

Right now what is important is the rescue and recovery efforts. There are probably people still trapped in Palu that can be saved. Indonesia is lucky that part of the Palu airstrip is still intact. That means the Indonesian and other governments can send in supplies. Logistics might not be that easy though as I am sure ground traffic has been disrupted by the both the earthquake and the tsunami, as well as refugees fleeing the city. 

Still, this event is a stark reminder of the power of mother nature. Some of the most devastating natural disasters in my lifetime at least have been tsunamis. I still remember watching the 2011 Japan tsunami and it was one of the most shocking surreal things I have ever seen. The 2004 Tsunami that also struck Indonesia and much of the rest of the Indian Ocean, was even worse. 

We have been fairly lucky to avoid such disasters in the United States. But it is only a matter of time before a major tsunami hits here. I personally am safe in the middle of Wisconsin, but coastal people need to consider the fact that their beachfront living has a major potential downside...

One of the most infuriating things about the Brett Kavanaugh hearings...

Brett Kavanaugh's appeals court photo.

I've been fairly quiet on the Brett Kavanaugh hearings for the last couple of days. In all honesty the hearings made me angry enough that I had to walk away from the issue for awhile. There were so many people saying so many things that were completely wrong and I was getting too attached to the issue. So I took most of the weekend off, wrote a couple of other posts and generally took some mental health time. 

What was I so angry about? There are many things of course, including the obvious and cynical political maneuverings and the damage the hearings did for relations between men and women, but that wasn't the most disturbing part of it. There is one idea, more than any other, that was expressed that I know is just completely wrong. It's the idea that we should always believe an accuser in sexual assault cases because a person would never forget who assaulted them. 

This is not true at all. Indeed, I would say that a 35 year old accusation that has not other corroborating evidence, eyewitness accounts should be given negative value in terms of evidence. Why? Because eyewitness testimony is notoriously unreliable. Here's an article from Scientific American that goes through the reasons why and how many people's lives have been ruined because of the unreliable memory of victims and witnesses. People may get assaulted and yet still fail to identify the person who attacked them. And you can find dozens more studies and articles that show the same thing.

There is also The Innocence Project. That charity has gotten many people out of prison with DNA testing and the most common reason they found for wrongful convictions? Eyewitness testimony. About 70% of their cases were prosecutions where eyewitness testimony was the main factor. Without corroborating evidence many men were convicted and imprisoned for crimes they didn't commit. Keep in mind that the level of examination that many of these men got was much more than Judge Kavanaugh has gotten at his hearings. 

Of course The Innocence Project was and is a cause celebre for the left. There is an entire cottage industry for getting people out of prison who have been wrongly convicted for crimes based on eyewitness testimony. There have been hundreds of articles, tv shows, books, movies and news programs all saying the same thing. You can't rely on eyewitness testimony alone and if you do you have a high chance of hurting someone who doesn't deserve it. 

Indeed, I know all about this because I have a Bachelors in Criminal Justice. This issue was something that was pounded into my head by my lefty professors and I think for once it was to their credit. Not only did that lesson stick with me for my entire life to this point, they were, for once, actually right about something. I think there is scientific consensus that eyewitness testimony is unreliable at best and shouldn't be used as anything other than corroborating evidence. 

It is amazing to me how quickly the idea of eyewitness testimony has gone from taboo to absolutely unimpeachable from the left. I think the Brett Kavanaugh hearings is just another example of the left giving up on one of their more treasured principles for obvious political gain, just like they have cracked down on free speech when they realized people were using their 1st amendment rights to criticize them. 

Here's the fact of the matter. I don't know if something happened to Dr. Ford or not. She may believe something did and she may believe that Brett Kavanaugh is the person that did it to her. But without anything other than her say, we never should have heard these accusations. Eyewitness testimony is notoriously unreliable and has ruined the lives of many innocent people, especially when the memories are so old, and doing so again in the Kavanaugh hearings is a betrayal of what was a core value to the left just a little while ago. 

Major terror plot broken up in The Netherlands.

Police investigate the house of one of the suspects. AFP. 

A major terror plot in The Netherlands has been broken up. AFP. Seven men were arrested and have been accused of plotting to attack a public event with AK-47's, a car bomb, and explosive belts. The ringleader was a 34 year old Iraqi man who had been convicted of trying to join ISIS in 2017. The men were still trying to secure explosives and other weapons but they did have small arms. Though the plot has been broken up, The Netherlands remain on high alert. 

My Comment:

Big news out of Europe which is being overshadowed by the Supreme Court drama in the United States. This had the potential to be a horrible attack. With seven attackers they could have killed dozens of people. 

Indeed, this looks like it was a major and complex plot. By using both suicide bombers, gunmen and a car bomb they could have caused quite a bit of chaos. Indeed, this attack plan sounds similar to the Paris attacks. If they had hit separate targets they could have hindered law enforcement response. And if they hit the same target they could have ensured that they inflicted huge casualties. 

That complexity is probably what brought them down. My guess is that there is a good chance that their efforts to get arms and explosives were what exposed them to the authorities. Guns and explosives aren't that hard to get into Europe but authorities tend to monitor the black market fairly closely. 

My guess is that these men probably would have had more luck with a vehicle ramming attack. Those attacks are a lot easier to pull off even though they don't have quite the same impact or casualties as a combined arms terror attack would. Still, some kind of mass ramming attack with seven different people could be a next level terror attack. And with so many attackers there is a decent chance of one or two of them getting away and attacking again. 

Unlike most terror plots lately, I do think that there is a chance that there is a connection to a larger terrorist groups. The ringleader was already arrested for trying to join ISIS so at the very least he had the contacts to attempt that. My guess is that with the obvious attempt to buy arms and explosives they probably had some links to ISIS. With ISIS bankrupt and a shell of its former self, I don't think they probably couldn't have done much, but I bet the link is there. 

I do have to wonder why the ringleader was even in The Netherlands. If he was from Iraq originally and had tried to join ISIS and even been convicted for it, why not deport him? Why was he out of prison? Was he out on bail? Didn't they think he was a threat? Or was he being followed in an attempt to break up this cell? I don't have any answers to any of those questions... 

The F-35 has been used in combat by American forces for the first time.

A F-35 at an airshow. AFP.

The F-35 has been used in combat by American forces for the first time in Afghanistan. AFP. The planes used were the Marine F-35B VTOL variant launched from the Amphibious Assault Ship, Essex. The F-35 has first been used in combat in Syria by the Israelis but this is the first strike conducted by America. The F-35 program has come under massive criticism due to high costs and performance issues. 

My Comment:

With all the other news outlets exclusively covering the Kavanaugh hearings I thought I could write about something else. I don't really have any more to add to the Kavanaugh story so this post about the F-35 will have to do instead. 

We were, of course, beaten to the punch. Israel managed to launch the first combat mission for the F-35 in May of this year. They struck targets in Syria with the plane and all accounts state it was a successful mission.

Indeed, that missions was a much better test of the F-35 than this mission in Afghanistan. In Syria there were air to air defenses and hostile jets that could have intercepted the F-35. I don't know if the mission succeeded because the fighter was able to evade those defenses or because Syria and Russia didn't want to provoke an incident with Israel, but either way those fighters were in much more danger than the F-35's that struck in Afghanistan. 

It is good to see the F-35 finally being used by the government that paid for it. The F-35 was a huge boondoggle and there are real criticism of the platform, but we are kind of stuck with them now. We might as well get some use out of them. 

The actual attack in Afghanistan was not very notable otherwise. It is only one of hundreds of strikes targeting ISIS and Taliban targets in Afghanistan. It is only notable because it was the first time the F-35 was used. 

That being said it sounds like the attack was a success. Had it not been it would have been an extreme embarrassment for everyone involved. How that would even happen would be beyond me. I guess their could have been a crash or something but it's not like there are any Afghan air defenses.  

I sent a message to both my Senators showing my support for Brett Kavanaugh.

Brett Kavanaugh. US court of appeals photo. 

Today's accusations from Michael Avenatti against Brett Kavanaugh were the last straw for me. The idea that a young woman would go to high school parties, see someone get drugged and gang raped and THEN KEPT GOING TO THE SAME PARTIES 10 more times is so ludicrous to not respond to. Having to do something about this farce, I did one of the few things I am allowed to do in this Republic. I contacted my Senators.

I do know how little this will effect the outcome. My Senators, Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin appear to have already made up their minds about Kavanaugh. Johnson is a yes and Baldwin is a hard no. They aren't fence sitters and even though Baldwin is vulnerable in November, I doubt she would have voted yes even before this faux scandal erupted.

I have only rarely contacted government officials and I have been presently surprised by the responses I have gotten. Usually I get at least a form letter but sometimes I have received a more in depth response. They were probably written by a staffer but still, it makes you think you have some kind of impact. If I receive any kind of response to this message I will post it in a follow up post.

I had originally planned to post the entire message here but I forgot to save it. I will say that I believe the accusations against Kavanaugh to be a complete fabrication and how damaging these false accusations are to the health of the country. I asked both Senators to confirm Brett Kavanaugh. Hopefully I will get some kind of response.

If you would like to contact your Senators about this or any other issue you can use this website to find them and message them. An email is relatively painless though you do have to give them personal information so they can confirm that you are actually living in their state. Though I have never done so you can also call them via telephone.

Was Michael Avenatti duped by 4chan in regards to a 3rd Kavanaugh accuser?

In what has to be the dumbest story since Hillary Clinton's campaign website took Pepe the Frog seriously, political pundit and lawyer Michael Avenatti has been accused of being duped by 4chan. Avenatti had been posting on Twitter for days now saying more and more outlandish things about Brett Kavanaugh, Trump's SCOTUS pick. He said that Kavanaugh was gang-raping people back in high school and college and was trying to decipher Kavanaugh's comments on his yearbook.

However, last night, an anonymous user on 4chan's /pol/ board claimed that the whole thing was a hoax. The use claimed that he had a stripper girlfriend call Avenatti claiming more and more stupid things and Avenatti buying it hook line and sinker. He then claims to be a classmate of Kavanaugh's and confirms his stripper girlfriend's story. He claims Avenatti was offering to pay his girlfriend $75,000 as well as guaranteeing that she would get more via gofundme. Eventually he tires of the prank and gets rid of their burner phones and Avenatti disables his Twitter account.

For his part Avenatti denied everything. The Hill has a pretty good round up of the whole sordid affair. I'm going to post a link to the original 4chan thread and a  post a slightly edited version of the post here. Keep in mind it's 4chan's /pol/ board so it's politically incorrect and INCREDIBLY not safe for work. Click at your own risk.

So what's my take on this? For one thing it's incredibly stupid no matter what the truth is. Whenever 4chan leaks out into the real world it's always a stupid and surreal experience. Though I have long said that 4chan's /pol/ board is probably the most influential political board on earth right now, it's still 4chan. People shouldn't take it this seriously. Ever. 

Is it real though? It's certainly possible. 4chan has pulled some major pranks before and have been accused of even more. I still remember a user taking credit for the infamous dossier that was used as a basis to spy on Donald Trump's campaign, specifically the part about the peeing prostitutes. That accusation was never proven but other things are more likely to be real. 4chan users have shown that they are smart and determined and have done things like troll the hell out of Shia LaBeouf and call in airstikes on terrorists. They are certainly capable of doing this. 

But that doesn't mean they did. Given the nature of 4chan and the fact that all users are anonymous it's pretty much impossible to confirm any stories on the website. Indeed, the link makes me think that the thing is fake. First of all the original poster only made one post, which is a major sign of a shill thread. Second, the format looks off like the user didn't really understand how 4chan works. And of course, it's a website full of trolls that would lie about this just for the fun of it. 

A brief perusal of 4chan shows they are going nuts about this. They seem to think that this is a false flag against them by the Democrats in order to discredit Michael Avenatti. Avenatti's shrill claims of completely over the top sexual assaults committed by Brett Kavanaugh were discrediting even the already unbelievable claims against him.

 I also think in this scenario, it might be part of a more general campaign to discredit Avenatti. In addition to the Kavanaugh claims Avenatti was deep in the Stormy Daniels non-story that the media was obsessed with. Avenatti used that to propel himself into a political figure. Avenatti is popular among the #Resistance crowd, but would be an absolute disaster if he runs for president. He could even be a pied piper candidate that could overshadow more credible ones and pretty much guarantee that Trump win his second term. Taking him out in this way could help the Democrats in 2020. I can't see many people taking him seriously after this.

My guess though is that this was just a random troll. It is 4chan after all and for every real story that gets broken on the website there are probably dozens of fake ones. And if it was a troll, it was a successful one. He not only embarrassed the Democrats and Avenatti, he also did the same thing to 4chan and even got massive media attention for it. That's all a troll wants and more. 

As for the Kavanaugh confirmation, I think it will happen now. The original accusers won't testify and I think there are enough votes for Kavanaugh to pass, especially after Avenatti got embarrassed like this. Even the GOP leadership is getting tired of the circus and wants to put it behind them. My guess is that there is a vote this Friday and Kavanaugh is confirmed. This will likely just be a footnote in an already stupid and frustrating story. 

Iran threatens retaliation against the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia in response to the Ahvaz terror attack.

A picture taken during the Ahvaz attack. Reuters. 

Iran has threatened to retaliate against the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia in response to the terror attack in Ahvaz that killed 25 people. Reuters. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis said the accusations were ludicrous and warned Iran against rash actions. Five attackers were killed in the attack and Iran has arrested 22 more people they accuse of helping the plot. 

My Comment:

I doubt that anyone responsible for this attack had any western connections. Indeed, ISIS has taken credit for this attack and I find very little reason not to believe them. ISIS has a presence in Iran and has committed some large terror attack in the country. Mass shootings are also a signature ISIS attack. Still we can examine the claims to see if they are at least plausible. 

Iran and Israel are in a proxy war in Syria and Israel regularly attack Iranian troops there. They have conducted hundreds of airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria. But would they attack Iran directly? I doubt it. Doing so doesn't really help things as the real threat isn't a parade of troops in Iran, it's the Hezbollah troops and Iranian advisers in Syria. Plus Israel prefers assassinations as opposed to terror attacks. If a high ranking commander had been killed then I could see it but as is I doubt Israel had anything to do with it. 

The Gulf States are also involved in a proxy war against Iran, this time in Yemen. They too are regularly killing Iranian proxies in that conflict and are regional rivals. So does that mean that they did this attack? Probably not. The Saudis have too much on their plate already with the Yemen war and I doubt they would want to provoke a direct war with Iran. If there was any involvement it would be like their involvement in 9/11, ie a rouge operation supported by some random prince. 

As for America, I seriously doubt that we would have anything to gain by launching a terror attack in Iran. We generally don't launch these kinds of attacks and even if we did want to attack Iran we would use airstrikes. Plus it would be a massive scandal for the United States if we were to approve a terror attack, even if it was against Iran. It would probably take down the presidency as even Trump's supporters wouldn't support this kind of thing. Plus Jim Mattis is a straight shooter and would never approve this kind of attack. And Trump isn't a warmonger and wouldn't risk a war with Iran. 

Of course, logic and facts aren't really a factor when it comes to Iran. There is a real chance that they either believe their own propaganda or use it as an excuse for an attack. Most likely these will be in the Syrian and Yemeni theaters of battle. My guess is that there will be continued rocket or drone attacks against Saudi Arabia and Israel. 

My guess is though that nothing will happen. Iran probably does know that nobody was responsible for this attack expect the terrorists that pulled it off. They are likely making noise about this attack for domestic purposes. Iran is in economic upheaval right now and they fear that their regime could be endangered. An attack by a foreign government, real or not, could be used as a tool to unite their people against a perceived common enemy. My guess is that this is a bunch of sound and fury that signifies very little. 

Brent Kavanaugh to give the Senate calendars that support his claims that he did not attack a woman when he was 17

Brent Kavanaugh at his Senate Confirmation hearings. New York Times

Supreme Court nominee Brent Kavanaugh will give the Senate calendars that support his claim that he did not attack a woman in 1982. The New York Times. The calendars, which were reviewed by the New York Times, did not show a party with the people named in the complain made by Christine Blasey Ford, who clams that Kavanaugh groped her when she was 15 and he was 17. Kavanaugh kept meticulous records and showed that he was out of town or otherwise busy for most of the summer and listed some parties but none that were consistent with the alleged attack. Ford's claims have been denied by Kavanaugh as well as the witnesses she listed in her letter to the Senate. 

My Comment:

These calendars are of course not rock solid proof that Ford's claims are not true. Kavanaugh may not have listed every event he attended and the entire thing could be a fabrication. But, if nothing else, it is evidence. And, along with the claims of the witnesses who say this story is bunk, it's the only evidence at all. This case seems like a clear case of political theater with the main objective being derailing a legitimate SCOTUS pick. It's probably revenge for Merrick Garland, but that doesn't make it right. 

I haven't talked too much about this case but that's largely because I couldn't contain my disgust. In my approximation the chances of anything at all happening between Kavanaugh and Ford are about 1%. It's not clear that they even interacted and I'm not even 100% sure that Ford even exists as anything other than an attack on the Trump government. 

We have seen this pattern before with GOP officials. It was first attempted with Justice Clarence Thomas but it didn't work there as I think it won't work here. Then they tried to get Trump with the same thing even after the New York Times said that Trump's record with women was impeccable and then all of a sudden a dozen women erupted from the woodwork to attack Trump. And it was successful at derailing the campaign of Roy Moore but only after he was the Senate candidate and not before the primary, timed for maximum damage. 

None of these claims were credible and none of them were ever elevated to the crime of rape. Though serious, the claims always lacked witnesses and did not have police reports filed. It seems a very clear pattern is that if you can't beat a GOP candidate on the merits you simply accuse him of sexual assault. No matter how little evidence there is and how long ago the event took place the media will cover it like it is a legitimate story while in actuality the accusations would be laughed out of any real court. 

That being said, I do think that sexual assault is a problem, especially among the countries elite. I am sure that there are enough GOP politicians out there that really have committed sex crimes. But those accusations don't happen during the end game of elections or during confirmation hearings. They happen when people go to the police. Ford never did and she still hasn't contacted local authorities to report this supposed crime. 

I also think that false reports like this are extremely damaging to pretty much everyone. Real assault and rape victims will now have to fear that their legitimate stories won't be believed and everyone else has to worry about being falsely accused. I am starting to think that the Mike Pence rule, don't be alone with any woman that isn't your wife, is going to be more widely adopted and not for the reasons Pence came up with it in the first place. If you are running for office it's probably better to not have any contact with women at all if you want to make sure that these kinds of charges don't stick. That's obviously bad for women as they will likely be cut out from advancement and the halls of power because the men they would work with are too afraid of being Kavanaughed. 

Yesterday on Twitter I went on quite a rant about the GOP and how they don't ever seem to fight. The proper response to these accusations about Kavanaugh would have been something to the effect of "either prove theses allegations with actual evidence or shut the hell up. Bring it up again without proof and our children's children will talk about what we do to you in response." But GOP leaders? They are bending backward to try and appease people that both hate us and hate the rule of law. 

I have long said that one of the most important American values is the concept of innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. This case would have never been brought to trial in a regular court room and given the age of the case, the statute of limitations would have been long gone. The Democrats are saying that Kavanaugh should be forced to step down because of 35 year allegations with zero proof and if you disagree you are some kind of misogynist that  hates women? Well what about the rule of law? Does that matter at all anymore? Do we really want to live in a country where a mere allegation without proof is enough to destroy someones career? 

My hope is that this case will force the Democrats to pay a political price for this. I know that I am going to vote against them come hell or high water. As a gun enthusiast I was going to do so anyways, but now I have one more reason. We can't let this kind of thing continue, and not just because it is damaging to one political party over another. We need to preserve the concept of innocent until proven guilty and right now that concept is under attack... 

Gun battle erupts at Iranian military parade, at least 12 elite soldiers dead.

Soldiers mingle at the site of the attack. Reuters. 

A gun battle erupted at an Iranian military parade and 12 of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards are dead with the death toll expected to rise. Reuters. 60 people were also wounded in the attack, which took place in the city of Ahavz. Civilians were also killed and wounded in the attack, but those numbers are unclear. No one has taken responsibility for the act but Iranians are blaming Sunni Muslims. Iran's Revolutionary Guards are their most well trained fighting force and a major symbol of the regime. Four militants participated in the attack, two of which were killed. Terror attacks are relatively rare in Iran but last year they had a major ISIS attack that killed 18 people.

EDIT: Reuters is now reporting that 24 people died in the attack. 12 of them were Revolutionary Guards. 

My Comment:

This looks like a major and effective terror attack in Iran. Attacking the Revolutionary Guard is a very symbolic move and one that not only shows that these fighters aren't quite as elite as they seem, but also is a blow to the credibility of the regime. Attacking them and getting away with a better kill death ratio is what I would call a successful terror attack. 

I wonder how the response time was so bad that at least 12 people got killed? You would think a military parade would have a lot of armed people around and in this case it seemed to be true. I know some of the marchers would be unarmed but you would think that they could have been able to respond better. 

Part of it though is likely the lack of cover. A bunch of people packed together in straight lines with nowhere to hide is pretty much shooting fish in a barrel. From the above video it seemed like people were essentially using each other as cover as well as the curb. That might explain why there were so many casualties. 

Compared to it's neighbors Iran has been relatively peaceful in terms of conflict. Sure, they are knee deep in both the Syrian and Yemeni wars and have some involvement with Iraq as well, but they rarely have any terror attacks that hit inside their borders. Last years ISIS attack, which killed 18 people, was notable not just because of how many people it killed but for the fact that these kinds of attacks are very rare in Iran. 

Speaking of ISIS, there is decent chance that they are responsible for this attack. ISIS tends to prefer these kinds of easy to pull off gun attacks and they certainly like to target Iran. But with ISIS largely destroyed in Iraq and lacking a major presence in Iran it's possible that other groups are responsible. Unless it's a homegrown offshoot of ISIS, I don't see how they get their fighters this deep into Iran with what ISIS currently controls. 

Iran was quick to blame Sunni Muslims for this attack but the motivation very well be secular instead of religious. Iran is undergoing economic upheaval right now and the government is not very popular. There has been widespread civil unrest, so there is a chance that this attack was revolutionary in nature and not an act of terrorism per se. And there is a chance that the motive is related to both. 

Regardless of who is responsible, this attack might be the new norm for Iran. They have been extremely lucky to avoid terrorism inside their borders and it was only a matter of time before they started to see some. With their proxy wars with Israel and Saudi Arabia still raging perhaps Iran should consider shoring up their internal defenses as well. We may well see a crackdown on dissidents as fallout from this attack...

Was Rod Rosenstein joking when he said he should wear a wire and invoke the 25th amendment against Trump?

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. NBC/CQ-Roll Call. 

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein claims he was joking when he told Andrew McCabe that he would wear a wire in an attempt to invoke the 25th amendment to remove Donald Trump from office. NBC News. The New York Times reported that Rosenstein had discussed with acting FBI director Andrew McCabe and disgraced FBI lawyer Lisa Page an attempt to remove Trump from office using the 25th amendment in the spring of 2017. NBC's source says the remark was sarcastic and Rosenstein said today that there was no case for using the 25th amendment to remove President Trump. Rosenstein also denied that the New York Times report was accurate. President Trump has yet to comment on the matter. 

My Comment:

I'm not sure who to believe in this case. I don't really trust the New York Times or NBC News, but they are the primary sources for both reports. I don't know who is telling the truth and who is lying. I can see a case for both interpretations. I do expect both outlets to do whatever they can to hurt President Trump. 

I do have to say that if Rod Rosenstein was just joking he picked a hell of a time to do so and might still be fired for it. Even joking about wiretapping the President of the United States is a huge problem. It's simply not done. Given the real threats revealed by these articles and the fact that Trump has had real problems with his underlings undermining him, he definitely put his job at risk even if it was sarcastic. 

However, this isn't just about Rod Rosenstein. If it is true that McCabe, Page and others were seriously discussing wiretapping the president and trying to invoke the 25th amendment it's hard to see this as anything other than a conspiracy against the President. Especially considering there is no basis for using the 25th amendment on President Trump. 

This raises some pretty serious questions. First of all, did this conspiracy find any support beyond McCabe and Page? Are there any other members of Trump's cabinet that went along with it? Was the conspiracy broken up after McCabe was fired and Page was reassigned? Is President Trump still at risk? These are some very big problems and need to be resolved immediately. 

As for Rosenstein, his job might be at risk, regardless if he was joking. The right thing for him to do after that conversation, if he was joking or not, was to immediately report it to President Trump. If he did so he might have saved his job. If he didn't I can't see Donald Trump keeping him on. Even if he wasn't part of the effort to remove President Trump, he didn't do anything about it either. That alone is enough to fire him. If he isn't gone in the next few weeks we can guess that he did the right thing and reported this to Trump. 

I do worry that this might be a trap for Trump. If he does fire Rosenstein it's very likely that congress will not approve a successor, especially if his boss Jeff Sessions goes as well. That will cripple Trump's attempt to clean up Washington and could have greater risks for him as well. 

There is always the fear that if Trump fires Rosenstein, Sessions or Mueller, Trump could be impeached for obstruction of justice. The legal basis for that is murky at best but I don't think that will stop the Democrats. They are banking on taking back the house in the November elections and if they do they will use any excuse they can to try and remove Trump. I doubt Trump will want to give them any ammo to do so. My guess is Rosenstein is safe for now, but I could be wrong... 

Self defense or murder? Father and son shoot man in dispute over trash.

One of the shooters, Michael Miller, right before firing on Aaron Howard. KTXS/Kara Box. 

As you may know video of a shooting encounter between a father and son duo and their neighbors that ended up with one of the neighbors dead has gone viral. A local news station has more information on the attack, plus video of the encounter recorded by Aaron Howard's wife. Uncensored footage of the attack can be found here, but I won't embed the video due to Blogspot's user polices. Please note that the Youtube video is age restricted (and for good reason) so you will need to sign in to see it. 

For those that are unwilling or unable to watch the video it shows the conflict between Aaron Howard and Johnnie and Michael Miller. In what has to be one of the stupidest reasons for a shooting ever, they were having a dispute over a mattress. In the video Aaron Howard is seen threatening both Millers and the Millers responding in kind. Both sides also threw homophobic slurs at each other as well. Eventually, a shooting happens and Howard is seen throwing a baseball bat at Johnnie Miller while Michael Miller shoots him with a shotgun. Both of the Millers were charged with 1st degree murder and are now out on bail. 

Before I say anything else it is absolutely CRITICAL to note that the beginning of this encounter was not on the video. We don't know if Aaron Howard did something to provoke the Millers drawing their firearms and if he did it could very well change the outcome of this case. Remember, video isn't perfect as it can often times leave out critical context. 

That being said, I don't think this was a good shooting. Why? Well, I am not a lawyer, but it seemed very clear that these men were egging on Howard instead of trying to deescalate the situation. Texas has a "Stand Your Ground" law and they had no duty to retreat but it seems as though the fact that they were threatening to shoot Howard as well might nullify that defense. They also drew their guns which seems to be what set Howard off in the first place and the video doesn't show why they did so in the first place but if it wasn't for a good reason then they are in the wrong. In Texas you can't provoke someone and then claim to Stand Your Ground. The key factor in this case is going to be whether or not the prosecution can prove that the Miller family didn't provoke Howard into attacking them.

 As it stands right now, I can't see how the Millers can use the Stand Your Ground as a justification for shooting Howard. Howard may very well have been trying to murder the Millers as he used a baseball bat and said he was going to try and steal one of their guns, but if you draw your guns in a situation started over an old mattress you can't really claim self defense. Plus they were threatening him as much as he was threatening them. 

Still, I do think that the Millers probably had a reasonable fear for their lives in this situation. Howard was clearly out of control and was threatening to kill them. He was also armed with a baseball bat which is a lethal weapon and made clear that he wanted to disarm and shoot them. I have always said that anyone crazy enough to charge someone who is pointing a gun at someone is also crazy enough to commit murder. If it wasn't for the question if this attack was provoked or not this would have been self defense and the Millers probably did stop themselves from being hurt or killed. 

Of course you could make the argument that Howard was trying to invoke stand your ground as well. He was confronted by two armed men and probably had a reasonable fear that they could have killed him as well. He wouldn't have been able to say that he wasn't provoking this attack since it seemed like a mutual fight to me, but in the unlikely event that he managed to disarm and kill the Millers, he might have tried to raise the defense as well. 

I do have to say that this is a great example of what not to do in this kind of case. Both sides made some very obvious and stupid decisions that they had no excuse for making. Getting into a fight over a mattress, of all things, is just stupid. The Millers never should have drawn their guns on this guy and probably should have called the cops and have them deal with Howard if they actually thought he was doing something wrong. Howard shouldn't have escalated things by attacking the Millers and was incredibly stupid in threatening people armed with guns. 

This entire situation could have been avoided and reflects poorly on pretty much everyone involved. As a gun owner I would not have handled either side of this confrontation the way it was handled. I've always said that armed people should be the most polite and non-confrontational people in the world and should never go picking a fight. It's clear that both sides of this conflict did go looking for a flight and neither side wanted to deescalate, including Howard's wife. It will be up to a jury to decide if the Millers need to go to prison for the rest of their lives. 

Woman killed three people at a Rite Aid distribution center before shooting herself.

Police respond to the scene. NPR/AP.

A 26 year old woman shot and killed three people and wounded several more at an Aberdeen Maryland Rite Aid distribution center before shooting and killing herself. NPR. The attacker has been identified as Snochia Moseley. She allegedly attacked the site because of a workplace dispute. She used a handgun in the attack. 

My Comment:

We have had a sting of minor mass shootings like this one for the past couple of days and for the most part I haven't been covering them. For one thing I do think that covering mass shootings is part of the reason they happen. Publicizing every single one that ever happens is not something that we should do. I tend to cover them only when they are unusual or especially noteworthy. Other than this case I don't see the last couple of shootings to be either. 

This one is a little different though, if for no other reason than it was committed by a woman. Mass shootings by women are extremely are to the point where I can only think of three off the top of my head, two of which were recent. The first one, the infamous "I don't like Mondays" shooting, happened in the late 1970's. The other two were the San Bernardino attack (done with a male partner) and the Youtube shooting.

I don't really know why there are fewer mass shootings by females. Part of it might be that they have less desire to be infamous. Part of it too might be the fact that female murders are less likely to use firearms to murder than men. And of course most violent crime is committed by men (though I would also say that woman are more violent than a lot of people give them credit for), so it shouldn't be surprising that women are less active in this sort of violent crime as well. 

I also think that women in general tend to be less direct with their aggression. They are less likely to go with the physical confrontation route and will instead attack people with words and gossip. I also think that many women realize that many of them are less strong than most men and will be stopped if they act violently so they never really try violence. 

Of course the gender of the attacker isn't the only issue here as this attack was also committed by a black person. The racial angle isn't really that interesting to me other than the fact that once the race of the attacker was revealed the story dropped off in coverage very quickly. There is very little political gain from either side of the culture war (other than the racist fringe of the far right) when the shooter is a black female so this attack will likely fade very quickly. 

I do want to point out that this attack again proves the gun control narrative wrong. The attacker did not use a rifle and lived in a state with some of the toughest gun control laws in the country. Maryland is a "may issue" state for concealed weapons, but is essentially a "no issue" state so it was unlikely that anyone would have been able to return fire during this attack. I haven't been able to determine if the attacker got her guns legally but I wouldn't be surprised either way as gun control seems to do little to stop these kinds of attackers... 

US ready to reopen negotiations with North Korea after progress is made between North and South Korea.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. AFP. 

The United States is ready to reopen negotiations with North Korea after progress was made at the meeting between North and South Korea. AFP. The set January 2021 as a goal for the nuclear disarmament of the Korean peninsula. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo invited his North Korean counterpart, Foreign Minster Ri Yong Ho to meet with him next week at the UN. North Korea agreed with South Korea to shut down one of their missile testing facilities to be observed by international experts. 

My Comment:

Very good news on the North Korea front. I always expected that this would be the outcome. Whatever speedbumps were in the way North Korea was always going to make a deal. They need to avoid war and would love to have sanctions lifted. It is in their best interest to go along with the United States with this deal. 

I always felt that China was attempting to derail the peace process for unrelated issues. We are currently locked into a trade war with China and they are losing that trade war badly. The tariffs placed on China are hurting their economy while not effecting the US economy which is booming. 

China had little way to fight back economically so they did so diplomatically. One factor in this was putting pressure on North Korea to back down from their commitments. Doing so worked for awhile but I am guessing the diplomatic pressure put on North Korea from everyone else and the heavy pinch of sanctions countered this diplomatic move and allowed them to stand up to China. 

China is running out of options and are likely to buckle under the pressure. They may put more pressure on North Korea and that is one of the few things that could derail the process. China still has a large amount of economic and political leverage but that being said they have something to gain from a North Korean nuclear deal as well. Time will tell if the deal survives, but my money is on it succeeding. 

I think we will likely see more movement on the issue. North Korea has already agreed to shut down another missile site and will allow international experts to observe it being dismantled. This is a major step and a very productive one. The missile program is just as dangerous as the nuclear weapons and if they are taken away much of the threat is gone. 

I am guessing that North Korea will probably get some concessions of their own. Eventually sanctions will be lifted and in the short term they will gain prestige and credibility if they manage another meeting with President Trump. They have a lot to gain from a deal and I am guessing they will start to reap the benefits soon. 

Israel and Russia try to defuse tensions after Russian spy plane is shot down by Syrian air defenses.

An Il-20 similar to the one shot down. BBC/Getty. 

Israel and Russia are attempting to defuse tensions after a Russian spy plane was shot down by Syrian forces responding to an Israeli attack. BBC. 15 Russians died in the attack. Both the Russians and Israelis are blaming each other for the disaster. The attack happened after four Israeli F-16's launched an attack on Syria's city of Latakia. The Israelis did not give the Russians much time as a warning and used the IL-20 as radar cover and then the Syrians shot it down. Russia and Israel are expected to make amends as they have a very close relationships. Israel is deeply involved in the Syria conflict and have been bombing Iranian targets in Syria for quite some time. 

My Comment:

A potentially dangerous situation in Syria has been diffused. There were some fears that this could have dangerous repercussions up to and including war but as usual those people were wrong. I doubt there are going to be any long term consequences from this incident. 

That isn't to say that there won't be any change. I doubt the Israelis will pull this stunt again. I understand why they did it, they did not want to put their pilots at risk. They just overestimated the competence of the Syrian anti-air forces. They thought that the Syrians wouldn't dare to fire at their fighters while the Russian spy plane was in the area. They were wrong. I doubt they will do this again. 

This is a huge embarrassment for Russia. Their Syrian allies embarrassed them and killed quite a few of their airmen. My guess is either they didn't bother to tell the Syrians that their plane was in the air or they did tell them and the Syrians fired anyways. Either way that is hugely embarrassing for Russia.  Having your allies shoot down your spy plane in a failed attempt to shoot down your other allies jets bombing your first allies is kind of pathetic really. 

It is strange that the Russians had a spy plane in the area in the first place. What were they doing there? Probably tailing any American or NATO forces in the Mediterranean. It's possible that they were spying on the Israelis as well. Of course flying a plane in a war zone is always risky. 

This whole incident shows how messed up the Syrian war is. Russia and Israel are essentially allies but they are on opposite sides of the Syria conflict. Israel hates Iran who is propping up the Syrian regime but both Iran and Syria are allies with Russia as well. And that's not including the Americans, Europe, the Gulf States, the Kurds, the Rebels and the Jihadists. It's a complete mess. 

There were rumors that the French were involved in this strike as well. I don't know how true those rumors are but we recently found out that the French were on the ground in Syria fighting ISIS. I would not be surprised if they were also involved in these Israeli strikes against Iranian targets, though as far as I know they have denied it. 

I do expect these strikes to continue. Israel considers Iran and their Hezbollah allies/proxy army to a be a huge threat. Russia tolerates these attacks because they don't actually care about Hezbollah at all. And the Syrians have been completely unable to stop them. That means we should expect Israeli airstrikes to continue as long as Iran has a presence in Syria even after the war reaches its conclusion. 

Trump to declassify FISA warrant, Lisa Page and Peter Stzork texts and Bruce Ohr interviews.

President Donald Trump. 

President Donald Trump has ordered the declassification and release of documents related to the Russia investigation. The Hill. First of all, the FISA application that was used to spy on Trump official Carter Page will be declassified in full. That FISA application was the first step in the Russia investigation. Also to be released are the full unredacted text messages between Peter Stzork and Lisa Page. Many of those texts have been released but in a redacted form. Interviews with Bruce Ohr, a key figure in the dossier scandal will be released as well. Insiders believe that the release of these documents will throw the Russia investigation into jeopardy as it will show bias against the President and will show that there was no legal grounds for the investigation in the first place. 

My Comment:

Absolutely huge news out of Washington today and one that should have major implications for the 2018 elections. I am not 100% sure what these documents will show but I do think it will torpedo the Russia narrative completely. The entire basis for the Mueller probe has been called into question. 

I also think that the accusations against SCOTUS nominee Brent Kavanaugh are an effort to downplay this story and keep it out of the news. Both the mainstream media and the Democratic Party took a huge hit in credibility by airing 35 year old allegations with zero proof and the fact that they tried it at all shows that the were desperate to keep control of the news cycle. 

We shall see how well that works for them. Right now the story seems to be suppressed. It is trending on Twitter which for once is showing actual news, but I had to search for the story on Google News. My guess is that the news outlets will cover the story, but only reluctantly and without much outrage. It's going to be too big to ignore completely and already the media is trying to spin. The Hill story was one of the more fair ones and it still bashed Trump for doing this, as if showing evidence of a conspiracy against him is a bad thing. 

What do I expect to be revealed in these documents? I am not 100% sure but I do expect it will show some very obvious bias and some bad behavior, some of which will be illegal. I think it will show that the FISA application will not have a good basis for spying on Carter Page which will greatly damage the Russia investigation. If it is shown that the FBI and Justice Department lied to the FISA court to obtain the warrant against Page it should greatly damage all the cases brought by the Mueller Probe. I also expect that the documents will show that the FBI leaked to the media and then used those same media reports as a justification for spying on the Trump campaign. 

I expect the Page and Stzork texts to show that their conspiracy against the president will extend far beyond them. Indeed, I expect high ranking Obama officials to be named, including James Comey and Andrew McCabe. Obama himself might be implicated in being aware of the phony dossier and ordering the investigation into then candidate Trump. 

I'm a little less knowledgeable about Bruce Ohr and his role in all of this. I know that his wife was deeply involved with the company that made the dossier and that fact alone should have meant that Ohr would have been recused from the investigation. The interviews might show that there was some actual contact between the two Ohr's which could damage the investigation even further. I have expect that Ohr provided the information to his wife who then gave it back to the FBI to get further warrants and investigations. 

What are the implications of this? Well for one it puts the entire Russia probe in legal limbo. Any defendants can rightly argue that any and all evidence gathered against them was fruit of the poisonous tree. There is of course inevitable discovery which might not save people like Paul Manafort who's crimes were unrelated to the probe or Michael Flynn who got caught on a process crime but it will stop the investigation into collusion fully. 

I also think that it will show that there was indeed a conspiracy against President Trump. These documents should show that the FBI and the Justice Department was trying to get him no matter what, despite the fact that there was no legal basis to do so. It was never about Russia interfering with the election or the Trump campaign colluding with them, it was about overturning the results of the 2016 election.

When these documents are released I will do my best to read them and post about them here. The question now is when they are going to drop. There is no question in my mind that they will be released before the midterms but it could be any time between now and November. My guess is that it will be a couple of weeks yet so Trump can use it as an "October surprise". Still, there is an argument for doing it now as it would likely blunt the attack on Kavanaugh. When it does, I will be reading it for sure! 

"Final offensive" in Syria's Idlib province on hold as Russia, Iran and Turkey attempt to come to an agreement.

Civilians flee from the Idlib offensive. AFP.

The "final offensive" for Idlib province in Syria has been put on hold as Russia, Iran and Turkey hold talks. AFP. Russia and Turkey are close but are on opposite sides of the conflict. In a meeting on September 7th, Vladimir Putin and Tayip Erdogan argued about the offensive. Russia may have pressured the Syrian regime to delay the offensive. Both sides are looking to compromise and if a deal is made it will likely allow both sides to attack al-Nusra Front, also known as Tahir al-Sham, an al-Qaeda affiliate. Turkey is opposed to the offensive due to the humanitarian disaster that could cause even more refugees to flee to Turkey. In response to the offensive Turkey has deployed troops to the border. 

My Comment:

Good news out of Syria. Though I was clear before that I wanted this offensive to succeed in truth there was a fear that the offensive could cause a wider conflict between Russia and the United States. Any use of chemical weapons by either side would be blamed on the Syrian regime and if that happened another round of airstrikes and missile attacks could have occurred. Given that the Russians had a huge fleet in the area and strong air defenses it could have spiraled out of control very quickly. 

And that's ignoring the role Turkey could have played in this tinderbox. Turkey did not want the refugee problem to get worse and also did not want the regime to threaten their operation against the Kurds. They could have gotten into it with Syria as well and may even had attacked the Russians. 

I think that a deal is likely. Idlib province is a hotbed to terrorist activity and if al-Nursa is left to their own devices they will extend their war beyond the borders of Syria. People tend to forget that al-Nusra is an absolutely brutal terror group and if it wasn't for ISIS taking all the headlines they would be considered a major global threat. 

Western media tends to downplay the fact that al-Nusra controls most of Idlib province. To listen to them Idlib is nothing more than innocent civilians and noble rebels fighting against the Syrian regime. There are still civilians and rebels left in Idlib but to leave out al-Nusra is dishonest. 

It is in everyone's best interest to destroy the al-Nusra Front. It should be a rare case of universal agreement for all parties involved. That means everyone should be on the same page but there are other sticking points. Nobody wants the refugee problem to get worse and there is still a great fear that chemical weapons could be used by one of the factions in the civil war. 

I do hope that some kind of agreement is made. The Syrian war has gone on long enough and the Idlib offensive is a decent chance to end it for good. The rebels will likely be completely wiped out after a successful offensive and all that will remain is ISIS and al-Nusra. 

French forces operating in Dier Ez Zor in Syria?

A French  Nextar Aravis armored vehicle in Dier Ez Zor province. France24.

A French Nextar Aravis armored vehicle has been spotted on the front lies in Syria suggesting a deeper French involvement in the fight against ISIS. France24. The images were released by the US Military on social media and were quickly pulled but not before sharp eyed people noticed the French vehicle. Only France, Saudi Arabia, Albania and Gabon use the Aravis, and the last two countries would have little reason to join the war against ISIS. The picture shows that France is much more deeply involved in the fight against ISIS than previously thought. No ground troops were thought to be deployed in Syria. 

My Comment:

Interesting story out of France. Before I say anything else I am not 100% sure that the Aravis is a French one. Saudi Arabia also operates the vehicles and they certainly could be involved in the Syrian Civil War. That would almost be a bigger story than France's involvement. 

But I doubt it is the Saudis. For one thing they know that having troops there could provoke a war not only with Syria but could greatly damage the countries relations with Russia. Plus they don't have a good way to get their troops in the country. Plus they are totally bogged down in Yemen right now and they don't really have the forces to spread around. I really doubt it is the Saudis, but I would be remiss to not mention the possibility. 

If it is the French though, it's pretty obvious that they are their fighting ISIS. Given the stellar reputation of the French military that is a good thing in terms of the fight against the terror group. There is new offensive against one of the last regions under ISIS control and if the French are participating they could be a big help. 

Domestically though, this is probably an embarrassment to the French government. I doubt that the French people want much to do with the Syria quagmire and until now they didn't know they were involved. Now they know. I am guessing the French people are asking their government some questions right now that they would rather not answer. 

This was a pretty big mistake by the US special forces community. Posting sensitive information like this is a major mistake. Doing so embarrassed our allies and may even have put these French troops at risk. It also risks a diplomatic incident between France and Syria (and their Russian and Iranian backers. I am guessing someone is going to be disciplined over it. 

It makes me wonder why the special forces even bothered with social media accounts. Sending info out this way seems to increase the chances of something like this happening. It just goes to show that Twitter ruins everything... 

Car ramming attack in China kills 11 and wounds 44.

The attack occurred in Hengyang China. The Guardian/ImagineChina. 

A car ramming attack in China has killed 11 people and wounded 44. The Guardian. The driver of the SUV then jumped out of his vehicle and began attacking more people with a knife and a spade before being subdued by police. The suspect has been identified as a 54 year old Chinese national named Yang Zanyun. He has a lengthy criminal record including drug trafficking and arson and Chinese officials speculate that he was motivated to get revenge on society due to those convictions. No other mention of motive has been released and due to Chinese secrecy on these matters, a motive may not be released. 

My Comment:

I don't think this qualifies as a terrorist attack. Without knowing the motive we can't know for sure but it seems unlikely that this attack was for political reasons. I also don't think any link will be found to any larger terrorist organization. This doesn't read as an Islamist attack, for example. Instead it just seems like a man who was very pissed off with his lot in life and decided to take it out on other people. 

That being said, though I don't think that this attack was in support of any terrorist cause I do think that this case was directly inspired by media coverage of terror attacks using vehicles. I bet the attacker got the idea from the Nice attack or the dozens of copycat attacks that have gotten coverage internationally. 

People now understand that ramming a vehicle at a high rate of speed into a crowd of people is a decent way to kill a large number of people. And once your vehicle is disabled you can run into the crowd and attack them with more traditional weapons. After the Nice attack that combined a ramming attack with some shooting, there have been many copycat attacks, many of which weren't even done in the name of radical Islam, including this one. 

It also, once again, shows the limitation of gun control. Private gun ownership in China is essentially non-existent with only a few hunting clubs being an exception. This means they almost never have mass shootings. But this attack and many other knife attacks like it shows that even without guns there are still plenty of ways to murder large numbers of people. And in this case the suspect was able to kill 11 people, which is more than many mass shootings in the United States. 

I think in this specific example this was a crime problem, not a terrorism problem. This man had been long known to Chinese authorities and had been convicted and imprisoned for many crimes. You have to wonder why they let him out in the first place given how draconian the Chinese criminal justice system is. I am guessing that he is not long for the world though as China still has the death penalty...

GOP candidate for congress in California attacked by a man with a switchblade.

The suspect, Farzad Fazeli. Sacramento Bee. 

A Republican candidate for Congress in California's 15th district was attacked by a man with a switchblade this weekend. Sacramento Bee. Rudy Peters, a Navy veteran, is running against Eric Swalwell in the 15th district and was campaigning at the Castro Valley Fall Festival when he was attacked. The attacker, Farzed Fazeli, approached Peters at his campaign booth and began disparaging him and President Trump Fazeli then pulled a switchblade and may have thrown a glass mug at Peters as well. Peters defended himself using a campaign sign and was able to drive off the suspect after his switchblade failed. Police arrested him a short time later. For his part, Peters opponent, Eric Swalwell condemned the attack on Twitter. 

On Sunday, my opponent @PetersCongress was attacked at his campaign booth in Castro Valley. I’m glad to hear Mr. Peters is okay. But it’s NEVER okay to use violence to settle political disagreements (or any disagreement). Fortunately, @ACSOSheriffs arrested the suspect.

— Eric Swalwell (@ericswalwell) September 11, 2018

My Comment:
This story is not getting much attention outside of conservative and local outlets. You would think someone attacking a congressional candidate would be major news but I guess not. Part of it might be because the 15th district is a safe blue district and not really competitive, but even then this is kind of a big deal.

Peters had a real chance of being hurt or even killed. Indeed, it seems he was saved because he aggressively defended himself and because Fazeli's switchblade failed. If either of those things were not true he could have been injured or worse. It just goes to show that self defense is something everyone should be prepared for.

I have to say that I respect Peters for fighting back. Going up against a deranged armed man while armed with nothing more than a campaign sign is a brave thing to do. Winning in that situation is just bad ass. I'd consider voting for him just because of that. He's a Navy vet so he probably had some kind of training but even then going up against an armed man is not a good scenario for anyone.

I do have to say that this situation mirrors the attempted assassination of right wing presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. He was out in the public trying to rally votes as well, but his attacker's knife didn't fail. He almost died because of it and it just goes to show how vulnerable political candidates can be.

This is especially true for minor candidates like Peters. Presidential candidates have the Secret Service and most bigger candidates for major officers can afford private security. That's not the case for a probable long shot candidate like Peters. I doubt he had any security at all and given California's draconian gun laws he probably didn't have a CCW permit. A minor candidate like this has very few options.These people are especially vulnerable to attack.

I think this is a pretty clear case of Trump derangement syndrome. Fazeli was so incensed by Peters and his pro-Trump campaign that he tried to kill him for it. That kind of reaction is so over the top but it is becoming more and more common. It was mostly dumb luck that this case didn't end up as an assassination...

Sad as it is to say, I would not be surprised if a GOP candidate for office does get murdered before then 2018 midterms. We all remember the congressional baseball shooting and you may also recall that there was an ill concived plot against the President himself during the 2016 campaign. With the media so out of control it wouldn't surprise me if some deranged nut job or even just a really pissed off person were to take the media seriously and actually try and stop a GOP candidate with violence. For me it seems less of a question of if but of when...

A few thoughts on 9/11

The World Trade Center in March 2001. Wikipedia user JeffMock. 

Today marks the 17th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. The attack that killed almost 3000 people, destroyed the World Trade Center and the Pentagon went down as one of the most transformative events in American history. I have a few random thoughts about it. 

First of all it's shocking to me that there are 17 year old people out there that have no memory of the attack because they were born after it. Those kids have known nothing but a world where terrorism is an ever present threat and has come to be almost routine. In a year they will be able to vote. Crazy. 

Second, 9/11 is one of those watershed moments where everyone knew what they were doing when they heard the news. Much like the Kennedy assassination, the Challenger disaster and Pearl Harbor, everyone has a memory of what they were doing that day. 

In my case I was a freshly graduated 18 year old, just out of high school. I was still trying to figure out what to do with my life so I was still at home with my dad. I was sleeping in that day when my Dad knocked on my door and said "Terrorists crashed airplanes into the World Trade center, would you like to get up?" I of course did and I watched the news for the rest of the day. It was a surreal experience to be sure. 

It also makes me wonder what event is going to be the same impact for children these days. I would have said the Las Vegas attack, which remains the worst mass shooting in American history, but that event has been memory holed so quickly that I doubt anyone will feel the same way they do about it as they do about 9/11. I guess the election of President Trump might count given how tranformative that was, but I doubt a presidential election will have the same kind of reaction people still have towards 9/11. For Europe it's clear that their event was the Paris attacks which horrified the world, but I don't think those attacks had quite the same impact in America as they did in Europe. 

Third, I have to say that things have gotten worse in some ways after 9/11. Despite the hysteria after the attacks terrorism wasn't that much of a threat in the United States afterwards for quite some time. There were plots yes, but most of them failed and failed spectacularly. Though there were the anthrax attacks, which didn't have anything to do with terrorism so to speak, we didn't have a major Islamic attack in America until the Ft Hood shootings in 2009, unless you count the DC beltway sniper case back in 2002 which many people don't. 

Things got worse in the past few years. Ft. Hood was only the beginning as we had several more major terror attacks after that culminating in the horrible Pulse Nightclub shooting. It was as if the world we all feared in in 2001 finally came true in the last years of the Obama administration where there were monthly and almost weekly Islamic terror attacks worldwide. Thankfully, with the defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria the threat seems to have subsided but it was clear that terrorism was almost an even more important story in the 2010's than it was in the 2000's despite the obvious and widespread impact of 9/11. 

Finally, I have to say that I am still surprised that the fact that the Saudi Arabian government had ties to the 9/11 attacks didn't make much of an impact. Even though 9/11 conspiracy theories remain all the rage you would have though that the revelation that the government was lying about low level Saudi government officials being involved in the attack would have changed things. Amazingly that story died fairly quickly to the point where people think I am making it up when I talk about it...