President Donald Trump.
President Donald Trump has ordered the declassification and release of documents related to the Russia investigation. The Hill. First of all, the FISA application that was used to spy on Trump official Carter Page will be declassified in full. That FISA application was the first step in the Russia investigation. Also to be released are the full unredacted text messages between Peter Stzork and Lisa Page. Many of those texts have been released but in a redacted form. Interviews with Bruce Ohr, a key figure in the dossier scandal will be released as well. Insiders believe that the release of these documents will throw the Russia investigation into jeopardy as it will show bias against the President and will show that there was no legal grounds for the investigation in the first place.
My Comment:
Absolutely huge news out of Washington today and one that should have major implications for the 2018 elections. I am not 100% sure what these documents will show but I do think it will torpedo the Russia narrative completely. The entire basis for the Mueller probe has been called into question.
I also think that the accusations against SCOTUS nominee Brent Kavanaugh are an effort to downplay this story and keep it out of the news. Both the mainstream media and the Democratic Party took a huge hit in credibility by airing 35 year old allegations with zero proof and the fact that they tried it at all shows that the were desperate to keep control of the news cycle.
We shall see how well that works for them. Right now the story seems to be suppressed. It is trending on Twitter which for once is showing actual news, but I had to search for the story on Google News. My guess is that the news outlets will cover the story, but only reluctantly and without much outrage. It's going to be too big to ignore completely and already the media is trying to spin. The Hill story was one of the more fair ones and it still bashed Trump for doing this, as if showing evidence of a conspiracy against him is a bad thing.
What do I expect to be revealed in these documents? I am not 100% sure but I do expect it will show some very obvious bias and some bad behavior, some of which will be illegal. I think it will show that the FISA application will not have a good basis for spying on Carter Page which will greatly damage the Russia investigation. If it is shown that the FBI and Justice Department lied to the FISA court to obtain the warrant against Page it should greatly damage all the cases brought by the Mueller Probe. I also expect that the documents will show that the FBI leaked to the media and then used those same media reports as a justification for spying on the Trump campaign.
I expect the Page and Stzork texts to show that their conspiracy against the president will extend far beyond them. Indeed, I expect high ranking Obama officials to be named, including James Comey and Andrew McCabe. Obama himself might be implicated in being aware of the phony dossier and ordering the investigation into then candidate Trump.
I'm a little less knowledgeable about Bruce Ohr and his role in all of this. I know that his wife was deeply involved with the company that made the dossier and that fact alone should have meant that Ohr would have been recused from the investigation. The interviews might show that there was some actual contact between the two Ohr's which could damage the investigation even further. I have expect that Ohr provided the information to his wife who then gave it back to the FBI to get further warrants and investigations.
What are the implications of this? Well for one it puts the entire Russia probe in legal limbo. Any defendants can rightly argue that any and all evidence gathered against them was fruit of the poisonous tree. There is of course inevitable discovery which might not save people like Paul Manafort who's crimes were unrelated to the probe or Michael Flynn who got caught on a process crime but it will stop the investigation into collusion fully.
I also think that it will show that there was indeed a conspiracy against President Trump. These documents should show that the FBI and the Justice Department was trying to get him no matter what, despite the fact that there was no legal basis to do so. It was never about Russia interfering with the election or the Trump campaign colluding with them, it was about overturning the results of the 2016 election.
When these documents are released I will do my best to read them and post about them here. The question now is when they are going to drop. There is no question in my mind that they will be released before the midterms but it could be any time between now and November. My guess is that it will be a couple of weeks yet so Trump can use it as an "October surprise". Still, there is an argument for doing it now as it would likely blunt the attack on Kavanaugh. When it does, I will be reading it for sure!
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