"Final offensive" in Syria's Idlib province on hold as Russia, Iran and Turkey attempt to come to an agreement.

Civilians flee from the Idlib offensive. AFP.

The "final offensive" for Idlib province in Syria has been put on hold as Russia, Iran and Turkey hold talks. AFP. Russia and Turkey are close but are on opposite sides of the conflict. In a meeting on September 7th, Vladimir Putin and Tayip Erdogan argued about the offensive. Russia may have pressured the Syrian regime to delay the offensive. Both sides are looking to compromise and if a deal is made it will likely allow both sides to attack al-Nusra Front, also known as Tahir al-Sham, an al-Qaeda affiliate. Turkey is opposed to the offensive due to the humanitarian disaster that could cause even more refugees to flee to Turkey. In response to the offensive Turkey has deployed troops to the border. 

My Comment:

Good news out of Syria. Though I was clear before that I wanted this offensive to succeed in truth there was a fear that the offensive could cause a wider conflict between Russia and the United States. Any use of chemical weapons by either side would be blamed on the Syrian regime and if that happened another round of airstrikes and missile attacks could have occurred. Given that the Russians had a huge fleet in the area and strong air defenses it could have spiraled out of control very quickly. 

And that's ignoring the role Turkey could have played in this tinderbox. Turkey did not want the refugee problem to get worse and also did not want the regime to threaten their operation against the Kurds. They could have gotten into it with Syria as well and may even had attacked the Russians. 

I think that a deal is likely. Idlib province is a hotbed to terrorist activity and if al-Nursa is left to their own devices they will extend their war beyond the borders of Syria. People tend to forget that al-Nusra is an absolutely brutal terror group and if it wasn't for ISIS taking all the headlines they would be considered a major global threat. 

Western media tends to downplay the fact that al-Nusra controls most of Idlib province. To listen to them Idlib is nothing more than innocent civilians and noble rebels fighting against the Syrian regime. There are still civilians and rebels left in Idlib but to leave out al-Nusra is dishonest. 

It is in everyone's best interest to destroy the al-Nusra Front. It should be a rare case of universal agreement for all parties involved. That means everyone should be on the same page but there are other sticking points. Nobody wants the refugee problem to get worse and there is still a great fear that chemical weapons could be used by one of the factions in the civil war. 

I do hope that some kind of agreement is made. The Syrian war has gone on long enough and the Idlib offensive is a decent chance to end it for good. The rebels will likely be completely wiped out after a successful offensive and all that will remain is ISIS and al-Nusra.