Iran threatens retaliation against the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia in response to the Ahvaz terror attack.

A picture taken during the Ahvaz attack. Reuters. 

Iran has threatened to retaliate against the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia in response to the terror attack in Ahvaz that killed 25 people. Reuters. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis said the accusations were ludicrous and warned Iran against rash actions. Five attackers were killed in the attack and Iran has arrested 22 more people they accuse of helping the plot. 

My Comment:

I doubt that anyone responsible for this attack had any western connections. Indeed, ISIS has taken credit for this attack and I find very little reason not to believe them. ISIS has a presence in Iran and has committed some large terror attack in the country. Mass shootings are also a signature ISIS attack. Still we can examine the claims to see if they are at least plausible. 

Iran and Israel are in a proxy war in Syria and Israel regularly attack Iranian troops there. They have conducted hundreds of airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria. But would they attack Iran directly? I doubt it. Doing so doesn't really help things as the real threat isn't a parade of troops in Iran, it's the Hezbollah troops and Iranian advisers in Syria. Plus Israel prefers assassinations as opposed to terror attacks. If a high ranking commander had been killed then I could see it but as is I doubt Israel had anything to do with it. 

The Gulf States are also involved in a proxy war against Iran, this time in Yemen. They too are regularly killing Iranian proxies in that conflict and are regional rivals. So does that mean that they did this attack? Probably not. The Saudis have too much on their plate already with the Yemen war and I doubt they would want to provoke a direct war with Iran. If there was any involvement it would be like their involvement in 9/11, ie a rouge operation supported by some random prince. 

As for America, I seriously doubt that we would have anything to gain by launching a terror attack in Iran. We generally don't launch these kinds of attacks and even if we did want to attack Iran we would use airstrikes. Plus it would be a massive scandal for the United States if we were to approve a terror attack, even if it was against Iran. It would probably take down the presidency as even Trump's supporters wouldn't support this kind of thing. Plus Jim Mattis is a straight shooter and would never approve this kind of attack. And Trump isn't a warmonger and wouldn't risk a war with Iran. 

Of course, logic and facts aren't really a factor when it comes to Iran. There is a real chance that they either believe their own propaganda or use it as an excuse for an attack. Most likely these will be in the Syrian and Yemeni theaters of battle. My guess is that there will be continued rocket or drone attacks against Saudi Arabia and Israel. 

My guess is though that nothing will happen. Iran probably does know that nobody was responsible for this attack expect the terrorists that pulled it off. They are likely making noise about this attack for domestic purposes. Iran is in economic upheaval right now and they fear that their regime could be endangered. An attack by a foreign government, real or not, could be used as a tool to unite their people against a perceived common enemy. My guess is that this is a bunch of sound and fury that signifies very little.