Gun battle erupts at Iranian military parade, at least 12 elite soldiers dead.

Soldiers mingle at the site of the attack. Reuters. 

A gun battle erupted at an Iranian military parade and 12 of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards are dead with the death toll expected to rise. Reuters. 60 people were also wounded in the attack, which took place in the city of Ahavz. Civilians were also killed and wounded in the attack, but those numbers are unclear. No one has taken responsibility for the act but Iranians are blaming Sunni Muslims. Iran's Revolutionary Guards are their most well trained fighting force and a major symbol of the regime. Four militants participated in the attack, two of which were killed. Terror attacks are relatively rare in Iran but last year they had a major ISIS attack that killed 18 people.

EDIT: Reuters is now reporting that 24 people died in the attack. 12 of them were Revolutionary Guards. 

My Comment:

This looks like a major and effective terror attack in Iran. Attacking the Revolutionary Guard is a very symbolic move and one that not only shows that these fighters aren't quite as elite as they seem, but also is a blow to the credibility of the regime. Attacking them and getting away with a better kill death ratio is what I would call a successful terror attack. 

I wonder how the response time was so bad that at least 12 people got killed? You would think a military parade would have a lot of armed people around and in this case it seemed to be true. I know some of the marchers would be unarmed but you would think that they could have been able to respond better. 

Part of it though is likely the lack of cover. A bunch of people packed together in straight lines with nowhere to hide is pretty much shooting fish in a barrel. From the above video it seemed like people were essentially using each other as cover as well as the curb. That might explain why there were so many casualties. 

Compared to it's neighbors Iran has been relatively peaceful in terms of conflict. Sure, they are knee deep in both the Syrian and Yemeni wars and have some involvement with Iraq as well, but they rarely have any terror attacks that hit inside their borders. Last years ISIS attack, which killed 18 people, was notable not just because of how many people it killed but for the fact that these kinds of attacks are very rare in Iran. 

Speaking of ISIS, there is decent chance that they are responsible for this attack. ISIS tends to prefer these kinds of easy to pull off gun attacks and they certainly like to target Iran. But with ISIS largely destroyed in Iraq and lacking a major presence in Iran it's possible that other groups are responsible. Unless it's a homegrown offshoot of ISIS, I don't see how they get their fighters this deep into Iran with what ISIS currently controls. 

Iran was quick to blame Sunni Muslims for this attack but the motivation very well be secular instead of religious. Iran is undergoing economic upheaval right now and the government is not very popular. There has been widespread civil unrest, so there is a chance that this attack was revolutionary in nature and not an act of terrorism per se. And there is a chance that the motive is related to both. 

Regardless of who is responsible, this attack might be the new norm for Iran. They have been extremely lucky to avoid terrorism inside their borders and it was only a matter of time before they started to see some. With their proxy wars with Israel and Saudi Arabia still raging perhaps Iran should consider shoring up their internal defenses as well. We may well see a crackdown on dissidents as fallout from this attack...