North Korea backs down, delays descion on Guam attack.

Kim Jong Un. Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has received a report on a potential strike on Guam and said he will watch the United States "a while longer". Reuters. North Korea had said that it was planing to launch four missiles towards Guam aiming at the waters around the island. Kim said that the United States should make the "right choice" to avoid conflict. Tensions have been very high between the US and North Korea due to statements by President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un. However, the United States and South Korea have downplayed the chances of war and have continued diplomatic efforts. 

My Comment:

I see this as North Korea backing down once again. I think they understood that they were risking war with the United States by sending missiles to Guam. Though targeting the seas around Guam would probably not be enough to trigger a war, there is a possibility that the missiles could miss and hit Guam which probably would cause a military response. 

Given the pressure they are under it is somewhat shocking that they would back down. North Korea invested quite a bit into making sure that they weren't the ones who blinked first but they just did. That will cause Kim Jong Un and the North Korean government to lose "face" and is a huge embarrassment to them. 

So why did they back down? I don't think they wanted to risk war. They know that they would be annihilated by any war with America. Despite popular perceptions, North Korea's military strength is fairly unimpressive. Any war would be a desperate race for a breakthrough before their military was worn down and destroyed by the superior firepower and technology of South Korea and their American allies. Even with weapons of mass destruction, I doubt that North Korea would ever be able to win a war against America. 

I also think that Donald Trump's "madman" strategy is working. Unlike previous presidents, North Korea wasn't sure if Trump was going to back down. His "fire and fury" comments were widely condemned in the press but I think they may have had an effect in North Korea. They might really think he's crazy enough to go to war with them and don't want to push his buttons. 

What also helps is that Rex Tillerson and the State Department has been utilizing back-channel links to North Korea to negotiate. He has informed them that we aren't interested in anything other than getting rid of North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. This is the carrot compared to Donald Trump's big stick. 

I said recently that we have weathered worse storms than the current crisis with North Korea. In a past post I wrote up many of the incidents that didn't result in war. I never really thought that the media panic over this crisis was responsible because both North Korea and the US/South Korea have backed down over more serious incidents than this. I am guessing that this is going to end the same way as those other incidents. Status quo ante with perhaps some diplomatic movement on North Korea's weapons program. 

Avoiding war with North Korea would be a huge foreign policy victory for Donald Trump and America. If we can convince them to give up their weapons programs, we not only protect ourselves and would also avoid the death of tens of thousands of people. Doing so will be difficult but it seems like it might be possible. Trump's new plan of fiery rhetoric combined with back-channel diplomacy is at least something new and may finally break the cycle of outrage and appeasement...